I’m hearing it, but not quite yet believing it – Labor’s Newspoll lead has apparently widened to a breathtaking 59-41 (from 55-45 last time). Details to follow as they come to hand.
UPDATE: Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has increased from 46-39 to 48-37.
UPDATE 2: Comments thread rumours tell of a Labor primary vote of 51 per cent, against 37 per cent for the Coalition.
Even if you are not a member of a leftish party get out and letterbox, hand out HTVs at prepollls and on the day, screw in ear.
I think this result, including Galaxy, is coming from a combination of factors, some of which are owing to Howard’s lack of judgment or sheer recklessness, such as his War on the States and the Strippergate smear.
And of course, the interest rate rise has probably only added salt to the wound.
Is there anything positive coming from the government apart from attacking Labor or frightening the public?
Something else is coming in to play with the prefered P.M. figures (48 – 37), those stats are becoming self fullfilling. People want to vote for Labor, therefore they are marking Rudd higher, they are marking Rudd higher because they want to vote Labor.
Another very bad sign for Howard.
Whatever you think is reasonable, Sir Eggo (41), given what most online subscriptions are worth.
I agree with you Hoots
I cant believe that 41% of Australians are morons
Twenty bucks is plenty, Eggo.
Chris Curtis, haven’t seen the new ads myself. What was the angle of these ones?
Text Message from Coalition central to Glen-
‘Go to bed mate, we cant think of anything you can say this time’. Sorry, delete last word , we never say sorry.
Downer mouthing off Rudd saying he has been claiming victory already in private. Sounds like utter bs to me. Very sour grapes Dolly.
I thought some rogue poll of 61/39 would make the government self immolate.
While this one doesnt have the contagious insanity of a 6 in front of it, 59 will still make for some entertaining viewing.
Interest rates since 2003 have favoured the opposition and take nearly a month to flow through the system into Newspoll. If the punters liked the health blueprint, and the interest rate issue flowed through with the mortgage increase notifications from the banks – it makes perfect sense.
So saying – remember folks, this isnt necessarily the true estimation.The true estimation is somewhere between 56 and 62.
If the swing applied as 59/41 to Benelong it would become a safe Labor seat for an election or two (7.61%)
Cheers,
Tom.
Does Downer really believe that kind of argument will win them back the votes ? Pathetic.
Yeah I’m sure Rudd has been ringing Downer constantly to have chats… then Downer says “You hang up first” and Rudd says… “No you”… then Downer hangs up… picks up the phone and hears Rudd is still there and giggles.
And in the Downer light of making up any rubbish to make your enemy seem arrogant: John Howard rang me last week and told me he will win this election 95-5TPP.
Dario,
It was headed “Real people. real stories” I think. It gave the names of the couple on it and they gave their own story of being unjustly dismissed. No spin!
“Possum Comitatus Says:So saying – remember folks, this isnt necessarily the true estimation.The true estimation is somewhere between 56 and 62.”
Even 56 is still a lovely number Possum !
Twas the night of the Newspoll that hit 59
All the bloggers were goggled and rushed to opine
It’s all over for Rodent, they crowed from the left
And Lord Downer on Lateline appeared quite bereft.
And even poor Shanners was forced to concede
That things for the Rodent look quite bleak indeed
But one thing is certain, though we don’t know quite when
The cry will go up, “it’s all bullshit!” from Glen.
“this weekend’s result puts Labor much further ahead than John Howard was when he beat Labor prime minister Paul Keating in 1996.”
From the Australian.
It’s 1996 all over again except the parties are reversed.
Incidently, that blue shirt Leigh Sayles wore is awesome.
William
Many apologies. I actually gave you fifteen, before I saw your post (56).
The next one will be 5 dollars more
Keep the entertainment coming. Where’s Glen, he’s the funniest.
BTW, it’s Sir Eggo, not Eggo, I didn’t support put myself through the hell of supporting the Newcastle Knights this year without giving myself a knighthood
LOL 🙂
if
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too:
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or, being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise;
If you can dream — and not make dreams your master;
If you can think — and not make thoughts your aim,
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same:
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools;
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings,
And never breathe a word about your loss:
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: “Hold on!”
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings — nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much:
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And — which is more — you’ll be a Man, my son!
— Rudyard Kipling
Listening to Downer while writing this. He’s running the usual line that people will come to their senses when the election is called. He also sounds pretty pissed off with Kevin Rudd, claiming he’s been telling Newspaper editors that he (Rudd) has already won the election.
As to the Newspoll result itself, I think this has to put paid to the theory that there is a slow drift back to the Coalition. If there ever was any such drift, it’s gone now. In fact, with Galaxy earlier this week on 57/43 maybe the drift is in the other direction…
Downer on Lateline – “Rudd has been going around privately to the business community saying they have already won the election”
On these figures your lordship, its fact…
If Howard is determined to remain leader for as long as his party wants him, how does he ascertain that the party still wants him? Will he ask it, in the light of this poll?
Hey you guys
Please be considerate with your exuberance.
With 59 TPP, and a uniform swing, I still miss out on winning my seat (Tangney) by 0.01% or 8 votes.
http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/elections/fed2007/election-calculator/
I’m not sure why everyone’s picking on Glen. I’ve heard him express pessimism on a number of occasions. The denialists are Stephen Kaye and Nostrodamus, one of whom has the saving grace of a sense of humour.
I just heard Lateline and could not believe it, was referred here for undeniable proof (different from WMD, proof). Consider me a declared donor and thanks for the site and the considered comment.
Glen, Nostrodamus, Steven Kaye: where are they?
Oh yes, I can’t wait to read Glen’s attempted pro Howard spin on this one LOL
Seriously: I’m really quite surprised! So that Morgan poll from Friday was a real rogue one?
I too can’t see the Rodent getting a thing out of APEC. If you watched any news bulletins in Sydney tonight, it’s clear Sydneysiders are peed off with Howard and his good mate Bush.
Rudd’s industrial relations policy announcement was obviously a plus also for him last week.
So the election date has now been pushed back into November?
Much too premature to start celebrating, but I’ll go to bed feeling a little happier.
I think the last two polls (Galaxy and Newspoll) are due mainly to the equine flu problem but there are meetings on this weekend in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne which should give a few points back. Any violent protests, which I would normally say would advantage the Govt, probably won’t due to the presence of Bush who is amazingly unpopular here.The Govt may ask the Business Council to stop advertising industrial reform as this merely reminds voters. They would be wise in any case not to antagonize the incoming Administration.
Are we seeing a more solid homogeneous ‘swinging’ class made up of around 10% of the electorate? Are these the aspirationals both sides are enticing?
Do you like Kipling?
I dunno. I’ve never kippled.
No worries, I’ll ease up on Glen. Many apologies
The PPM figure is interesting.Recapping the Pollwars, PPM is both covariant with the primary vote (as in they move together at the same time) and PPM is also a trailing indicator (meaning that the primary vote changes first and the PPM plays catch up)
This suggests that Rudds vote is strengthening by people saying they’ll vote for him, and then confirming that support with the preferred PM measure.
Rudd is solidifying his vote.
59/41 : people have already come to their senses.
Thanks Chris, I’ll keep an eye out for it!
[I’m not sure why everyone’s picking on Glen. I’ve heard him express pessimism on a number of occasions. ]
He reverted to some blatant personal attacks in the previous thread, which was irritating, after he was quite measured in expressing his views over the previous few of days.
Adam: Bravo mate! Well done!
A 12% 2PP swing to Labor would make my seat of Berowra very marginal – if Ruddock actually had to go to preferences for once in his life, I’d be getting plastered and doing the happy dance naked all over my suburb.
I can manage to live with a measly 56%, Possum. He he he.
Galaxy and Newspoll are both showing a strong movement to the opposition. It is hard, nigh impossible, to see the government being re-elected. Barring overwhelming Rudd hubris, a major scandal or an atomic bomb landing on the MCG on grand final day.
Alexander Downer has told Lateline that Rudd is telling everyone that the ALP has already won the election. Who knows if this is true but if Newspoll & Galaxy are accurate then I’m not bloody surprised Rudd is confident. Private polling would also be confirming this.
When will the election be called? Howard has to announce the election within a week after APEC. He really does. Speculation will be frenzied and it will drive everybody crazy. If the election isn’t called the PM will look like the araldite man. Time is up. Three years have come and gone.
The PM has flexibility with the campaign period. But I doubt he’ll want to risk delaying the election into November and face bad inflation figures or a possible interest rate rise. Time is not on his side. The PM must hope he can campaign like a hero and claw back the ALP lead.
Surely the election will be during late October and I believe there will be at least two national debates. The government reminds me of a football team that is seven goals down at 3/4 time and is kicking into the wind in the last quarter. It has to take risks and discard political orthodoxy.
Delaying the election will not help
Can’t see why the IR policy would have helped Rudd, it did no more than neutralise a potential negative as far as I can see. The Hospital plan would have been better. I think the interest rates were helpful, less because they went up, more cos Howard didn’t look in control of it.
Yeah, I saw Downer on Lateline. I seriously doubt the truth behind his claims about Rudd telling people that he has the election in the bag. It’s just another smear attempt to make Rudd look arrogant and cocky, knowing that Australians detest arrogance.
Downer is probably just trying to make up for the disaster he created for the coalition with his strippergate smear attempt.
All up, just a big dose of sour grapes on his part, and probably also quite a few other government members, especially but not including Abbott.
Glen’s alright. I don’t agree with his politics but he’s more use in political discussions than any other Lib blogger I’ve seen.
77: I’m sceptical of whether equine flu counts as a political issue. Media coverage had hardly focused on whether or not the government is to blame. As to violent protests, I doubt they’ll have much impact: people may not like APEC disruptions, but they also don’t like anarchists smashing up their city.
Have seen that Rudd road-side interview a number of times now. I think some of you are just too close to the issue – it wasn’t that bad. AND it is something different, a Rudd among the real world. You wouldn’t want all your media statements like that of course.
Now will this become a self-fullfilling prophecy – the PM looks like a lame duck and none like to follow lame ducks. That may help keep the margin high.
HOLY SH*T
Dario, here is the link to the Real People, Real Choices Ad
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SaZkakmENYs
JWH at a news conference shortly after APEC.
“While it has always been my intension to contest the next election it is clear the country has a mood for change – to pass the baton to the next generation of leaders. My own concerns are of no matter compared to that of the country. I feel it is best to allow the nation to choose change that does not threaten all the advances we have achievied over the last decade.
Therefore I am stepping down as Prime Minister and [ ] will contest the next election. In order to allow the good people of Australia a chance to get to know the new prime minister the next election not be held uptil next year…..”
Just day dreaming … what idiot would want to step up at this point?
Rudd had a good line last week about it being 3 years since Howard called the last election. He will ramp up the “he’s scared to go to the voters” line as soon as the APEC hoo-ha dies down.
Howard will have to call the election before 9th October, ie 3 years after the last election. Otherwise even the most ambivalent voter will realise the 3-year term has expired and Howard is just clinging on. No-one cares about or respects the consitutional trivia of January 2008.
So with a 6-week campaign as the last desperate throw of the dice, the election will be in November for sure.
But frankly this will just drive up Rudd’s numbers. So at which point will National MPs outnumber the Libs ?
A Queensland PM turning the whole country into the Banana State ! Live long enough, you see everything.
If anyone thinks APEC will provide a fillip for Howard, I recall New Zealand, 1999. Shipley hosted the APEC summit then lost in a landslide two months later.
This poll is boring simply bc there’s no competition in this election anymore. The big question now is will Howard lose his seat too?
Downer’s antipathy to Rudd is based on parallel carreers, Rudd’s unrelenting camapign against him personally over AWB and the growing reality that Labor is going to win.
Basically, it’s a big dummy spit.
Yes, William, you’re absolutely right. But Glen’s just so damn entertaining.
If I may on Glen’s behalf:
But, but, but…
Don’t people realise that Rudd saw nude female strippers? Completely naked they were! Anyway once the Budget bounce comes along everything will be fine for the Libs.