Grattan says:
JOHN Howard now appears seriously under threat in his seat of Bennelong, according to Liberal sources. As the Government is hit by more bad polls, the Prime Minister’s electorate, where Labor’s Maxine McKew is challenging, is considered by Liberals to be in greater danger than Malcolm Turnbull’s Wentworth.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
Nah, I reckon he’ll stay. He’s doing it for the history books – if he leaves and the Liberals are defeated – he will go down as a coward in the history books. I think he’s oscillating between wild surges of hope and a ‘Custer’s last stand’ attitude. Either way, he’ll stick it out to the end.
” I have no doubt that Howard is now kicking himself ”
I have to disagree. Howard sees himself as the only hope for the Libs, the knight in shining armour who alone can slay the Labor beast. He’s a gambler at heart and he’s put the whole house on this last throw of the dice. It’s on to glory or death. He’s not backing out or retiring unless the wife talks him into it. She’s the only one who can move him.
Yeah, ‘Death or Glory’ is a better way of phrasing it. You can almost see in his face and body language on the news each night what he’s feeling.
It seems to me a strange confluence of events has kept Howard in as long as this.
1. Good global economy from massive gains in productivity due to technology
2. Good restructuring of the Australian economy from the 1970s and 80s.
3. Balance of power not held by Coalition, so “rough edges” taken off harsh policies (original GST, WorkChoices)
4. Labor persisting with Beazley (aristocracy rarely works)
5. Maybe Bennelong being semi-marginal – Liberals feel disinclined to turf their best Bennelong asset
6. GWBush getting the presidency in 2000.
Now most of those are unravelling, the “real” state of affairs is exposed – ie no-one likes Howard.
Fagin, good choice. Mark Taylor then.
John Howard really doesn’t need any more polls to help him make up his mind about whether he goes or stays.
There’s little doubt about the way the wind is blowing.
He will have to weigh up whether his legacy would be better served by him handing over gracefully to a successor in a couple of weeks or whether he can cope with an ignominious defeat in his own electorate and loss of power.
His ego would be saying to him “go when you are ahead, when you can choose”.
He would be able to concoct a story. He might even be humble in his resignation saying “clearly the polls show the Coalition cannot win with me leading it into the election”.
Anyway, we can speculate all we like but we’ll know for certain in just a few days.
I agree with Paul K. I can’t quite see Howard bailing out now. I don’t buy the line that he is a tough fighter. I actually think that he is a deeply insecure man. But with his targeted pork-barrelling in the marginals, he will be in hope that he will defy the odds and Labor won’t quite scrape together 16 seats, even if they win the 2PP vote by a decent margin.
It’s a high-risk strategy, especially with an electorate that is deeply suspicious of Howard’s motives, but if he does get across that line, Howard knows that he will become possibly the most powerful PM in our country’s history. His party will give him licence to do ANYTHING he wants because he will have proved to be truly invincible.
Of course, this scenario would be a total disaster for the country, which is why there is so much at stake with this election.
Re Labor’s IR policy, I love this bit quoted in the SMH link above:
“But workers under an existing AWA including those who signed up before the Howard Government’s fairness test changes may be stuck until the agreement ends.
Labor does not propose to unscramble that deal and given some AWAs last for five years, it could mean some workers will remain on AWAs until Labor’s “cut-off point” of December 31, 2012 at least two elections away.”
No retrospectivity. Now that’s clever. I’m tempted to say: Howard clever.
Under this policy, workers will be stuck on their present award-stripping AWAs, some for up to 5 years. This will be a constant reminder to them of exactly how beneficial the “economic management” of the Libs has been for them personally.
Such a policy will also ensure that Workchoices remains as an festering open wound on the Liberal Party, with any new leader unable to distance himself or the Party from it, and from it’s continuing effects for those trapped on a 5-year AWA.
It affords Labor the opportunity to continue to use Workchoices to thump the Libs through the entirety of their first term and to use it again as a weapon in the next election.
Clever.
Just a question for the inside operatives of the world, could the coalition have devised a credible, coherent portfolio of new policy; to allow the new PM to change direction, significantly in some areas, slightly in others, etc without it leaking out? Either the new PM or the old one would have had to commission it sometime ago as a fallback strategy.
Dembo,
Points 1,2 & 3 no question.
#4 .. I actualy think KB may have won this time round, I actually think he was non-threatening enough to win in 2004 as well.
I remember someone pointing out, (possibly Geoff Robinson), that govts are threatened when real living conditions slip. well they’re on the decline now and have been for at least 12-18 months. I think Beazley may have had labor in a solid position had he still been leader, not as good, more in the 52-53 range than the 55-57 2PP.
I’m sure Howard has no regrets at all. One of his more admirable qualities is his absolute lack of self-doubt. The person who is kicking himself now is Costello, who knows he should have made a grab for the leadership last year when it was worth something. If the Libs lose, the leadership won’t be worth having, as Andrew Peacock will no doubt tell him.
“Death or Glory”. Wasn’t that the war cry of the Toad in Wind in the Willows? Or am I confusing the Toad with the Weasels who took over the House.
Either way, how appropriate for Howard.
Jasmine, Malcolm Turnbull has been thinking about the top job for quite some time and it is likely he would be able to announce a swag of new policies distancing himself quite clearly from the old regime. Peter Costello is undoubtedly more moderate than John Howard and he too must have some kind of plan in his drawer. The new PM would not need to go to caucus. He, presuming it is a he, would be able to pick his own team and most of his own policies. Unlike Labor he would not need his policies passed by the rank and file. John Howard has been making policy on the run as we have all observed. Even the ten billion dollar river plan was not run by anyone, including Treasury, nor was the hospital take over. The new PM would have a good deal of latitude.
Richard Jones, generally I respect what you have to say (as I did your efforts in parliament), but if you think Howard’s going to throw in the towel at this stage, you sorely mistaken. Like all pollies he suffers from “candidate’s disease”, which is to say that he thinks he can win from any position. No one in the party is going to tell him to go, and even if they did he’d probably ignore them. I agree with Paul K (94; not THE Paul K by any chance?), that only Jeanette can get him to go now.
The problem for the Libs in changing leaders at this stage is that it would look and smell like panic. Contributors to sites like this need to be reminded that 95% of the country aren’t paying that much attention at present – they are a bit sick of Howard, quite like the look of Rudd, and seem comfortable in voting for a change. But if the Libs dump Howard at this late stage, the only message it sends to these people is that the Libs can’t even run themselves, let alone the country. Changing leaders now will make the rout worse, not better.
With regards to Bennelong, are there any other locals with an opinion on the impact of the Brethren meeting/association with JWH?
I suspect that whilst this had little impact nationally, within Bennelong there is still a memory of some of the Brethrens behaviour towards Andrew Wilkie in 2004.
It wasn’t edifying, and I think many would be disturbed that Howard is still continuing the association.
It could just be what gets him kicked out of Bennelong.
Just cleaned a bunch of comments out of moderation – apologies for the delay.
Mark Taylor for Bennelong.
Is this the same Mark Taylor who prostituted his “Australian of the Year” title while spruiking imported air conditioners?
I think Hugo has summed up the situation perfectly.
I’ve also heard (I can’t prove this, but perhaps it’s worth something) that polling done by the Coalition in relation to Rudd brings up two big negatives: inexperience and risk. Even with a commanding poll lead at this stage, if the advertising executives do a good Coalition campaign, then JWH might scrape back in.
Thank you Mr Jones, but to avoid the impact Hugo predicts there would have to be more than just latitude and ideas. And yes this is asking more than Howard has being delivering but he has been running on record really. New PM gives Rudd the right to question every single policy direction and raise all kinds of ridiculous concerns the new PM might have to spend all his time denying.
I’m a happier little Labor member so long as Howard stays, although I think all but a very convincing Turnbull will go well for us, as Hugo predicts.
Pi @82
Yep, my point. The once-great party has degenerated into a pack of self-seeking wolves … Stockdale in Victoria, Reith in Canberra, to name two.
As a political pathetic, I have some sympathy – not a lot, mind you – with the liberal party’s present state. Howard culled the small L libs ruthlessly. With the possible exception of Petro, there is no one left standing. That’s also part of Howard’s “legacy.” He gutted the liberal party. Pig Iron Bob would turn in his grave to see today’s liberal party.
“Is this the same Mark Taylor who prostituted his “Australian of the Year†title while spruiking imported air conditioners?”
That’s a little harsh, Tubby’s got a family to feed.
Thanks Hugo. Well, I’ve met a number of people who believed implicitly they would be elected even when they had absolutely no chance at all. I was one of these in 1972! Meg Lees thought she would get back in but had absolutely zero chance. Even the greatly respected Peter Andren, whom we wish well, really had very little chance of being elected to the Senate as an independent. I remember George Georges who stood for the Senate in Queensland as an independent thought he would make it but barely got 1% of the vote. Candidates are quite delusional. I suppose they have to be in order to run at all. Why would anyone run against an incumbent in a safe seat? Ego satisfaction at being someone for thirty days perhaps, but even some of those believe they have a chance.
You may be right of course. What may be a rational thing to do from the point of view of an outside disinterested observer, may the the last thing a delusional candidate or PM would do.
I’m not sure about whether changing leaders now would automatically make it worse. If John Howard were to retire on “health grounds” then it would not be seen as bailing out of a sinking boat. The Gordon Brown experience in the UK is quite a lesson. The polls turned instantly.
The situation is so very dire for the Coalition now that there is not too much downside risk in changing leaders.
If the 2 big Rudd negatives from focus groups are “inexperience” and “risk” he seems to have played a pretty skilled game with these relatively conservative IR transitional arrangements. Doesn’t appear to be a whole lot to frighten the horses there.
The most sensible post on this thread thus far is Hugo’s (post 113).
“polling done by the Coalition in relation to Rudd brings up two big negatives: inexperience and risk.”
Swordfish if Rudd had been bumbling around, bringing out strange policies, getting the arithmetic wrong and contradicting his cabinet colleagues, I might agree inexperience would be an issue. But people have had a good year to look at Rudd’s performance, and clearly they are quite happy with it. If ‘inexperience’ was a serious concern, governments would never change.
‘Risk’ sounds like another way of saying ‘inexperience’ in this context. But if ‘risk’ is in anyone’s ad campaigns it will be in Labor’s: “Will you risk Workchoices Mark 2?”
I have every confidence that the Libs advertising execs will come up with a campaign every bit as devastating as their defence of Workchoices 1 effort.
” polling done by the Coalition in relation to Rudd brings up two big negatives ”
I think the whole problem with the Liberals campaign is it’s been nothing but negetive. They give you lots of reasons not to vote for Rudd but not one single reason to vote for Howard. No positive image at all. No vision for the future. It’s all, ” Vote for me or the bogeyman will get you”.
[I remember watching that “Labor in Power†doco many years ago, and an interview with Bob Collins regarding the Keating/Hawke power battle within the ALP. Bob Collins was saying that in politics sometimes you can just smell the “stench of death†in the air.]
There’s a clip of that on YouTube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_CHXDBq9Ps
Collins starts at 1 minute 13 seconds.
[The person who is kicking himself now is Costello, who knows he should have made a grab for the leadership last year when it was worth something.]
This is why I think Costello is a joke. At the end of the day he was just too gutless to be P.M. Rudd knew when to wait, and when to make his move.
Derek Corbett, and others in need of an explanation of an acronym:
http://www.acronymfinder.com/
http://www.acronymdictionary.co.uk/
http://www.acronymsearch.com/
http://www.ucc.ie/cgi-bin/acronym/acro.html
Now, (Howard will) go through the motions and offer an excuse – crook knee is good – and shuffle off the stage.
Derek Corbett 88
Kind of offensively ironic, perhaps, given how hard he has pushed far more seriously disabled people to work for a pittance under the ‘Mutual Obligations’, and ‘Welfare to Work’ thuggery?
Richard Jones 89
Politically and electorally, Howard is now between a rock and a hard place (and of course he alone is responsible for that). If he goes to the election and loses, the most likely outcome, he is a sad reject. If he resigns before the election, especially this close, he will be justifiably mocked foreverafter with cries of ‘cut-and-run’, for refusing to face electoral judgement, etc.
Needless to say, I have no sympathy for him. His dilemma is entirely a product of his own hubris and power lust, and resultant political miscalculation.
I’m not sure about whether changing leaders now would automatically make it worse. If John Howard were to retire on “health grounds†then it would not be seen as bailing out of a sinking boat.
Richard Jones 121
Don’t agree with that. Howard has way too much form with, umm, the ‘truth’, to get away with that line this close to the election. Everyone would know why he is bailing out, and it would count against him.
I hate that Labor is retaining the secondary boycott legislation recently bought in by Costello. That means it will be illegal to group protest a product or business which contains or runs questionable practices.
aj 91
Absolutely, and it will come back to haunt Labor, if they don’t at least seriously modify it.
I can’t quite see Howard bailing out now. I don’t buy the line that he is a tough fighter. I actually think that he is a deeply insecure man.
Noocat 98
I think there is a lot of truth to that. Howard’s apparent lack of self-doubt and his resoluteness, is classic compensatory behaviour.
“Is this the same Mark Taylor who prostituted his “Australian of the Year†title while spruiking imported air conditioners?â€
That’s a little harsh, Tubby’s got a family to feed.
Nath 120
Uhh, not sure if you are being ironic here, but captains of the Aussie cricket team get paid very well. A better base salary than the PM, if I recall correctly. Could be wrong.
Hahhahahahh The Australian on Rudd’s I.R. changes – good, but not good enough – how freaking predictable. They won’t be happy until everyone in the whole country is on an AWA.
Richard, Howard is too “fit” to bow out for health reasons. His lake circus has been drumming that perception into us for how long? I know healthy people are struck down by medical calamity but with Howard’s form people will be skeptical of a sudden problem. It’s up to Janette to fall ill if that’s to be the escape route.
In any event, Howard won’t quit. For reasons posted in this thread and posted by me in the past.
But in short, the only way Howard will leave is via electoral defeat.
Richard Jones said:
“Why would anyone run against an incumbent in a safe seat? Ego satisfaction at being someone for thirty days perhaps, but even some of those believe they have a chance.”
That’s an interesting question. My partner stood for the Democrats in a Victorian seat at the last election – they stood candidates in every seat. Obviously nobody knew it was going to go that bad, but no-one expected to win any seats.
So why did he stand? Well, it was mostly about giving people a choice – for a lot of us a ballot with only Labor and Liberal on it would not be a choice at all. It was about *doing something* to help this country – in his case gay rights and refugee rights.
It was strange, but on election night, we had a great time! Yes the result was a disaster for us (Democrats collapse, Howard gets back in), but we had literally stood up to stop it, so in a sense there were no “ifs or onlys”.
Standing for election is very empowering. People talk about what it means to be free – I think putting yourself forward as the representative of your community without fear of punishment is a big part of freedom and what makes this a great country.
Woot! Tuesday afternoon rant!
Amber Dekstris, well he has been sick for the past few days with the flu and has not looked well on TV. Janette has had a serious illness but she beat it evidently. Anyway, the consensus here appears to be that he won’t quit. We’ll all know for sure in a few days.
Shaun Carney wrote in the Age on Saturday that it’s either victory of defeat for Howard. If he wins, he’ll be super-powerful; Lib MPs will treat him like a God and Workchoices will break the unions and later the Labor party through lack of union funds. There will be absolutely no pressure to hand over to Costello. IMO, the only ways Howard will ever surrender the Lodge is by defeat at the polls or a debilitating sickness for either himself or his wife. This is why Labor MUST win this election.
Not equine flu, was it? Might have to ring the knackery 🙂
I don’t think Howard will quit either. There is too much evidence that he will stick around to the bitter end and fight all the way. This was evident during the Liberal leadership changes in the 80s, his period in the back benches, and then regaining the leadership. He doesn’t give up easily, and I don’t think he’s about to start now. Resigning, even for “health” reasons, will be seen as a backdown. It also goes against everything he’s said in the last several years, that he’ll stay as long as his party wants him.
He’s going to the election, unless the party decides enough is enough. I don’t think it’s a case of hubris, or ego, I think it’s more the “conviction politician” thing. He’s ridden Iraq and climate change to the bitter end in terms of holding a certain view, and I think hanging onto the leadership is in the same mindset.
Dembo great post there, re minor parties/independents standing candidates.
The requirements in our Constitution that the members of parliament be directly chosen by the people implies that there is a choice. If we’re to stand by our Constitution then I’d hope we’d have choice, regardless of whether the seat is safe or not.
In other news, visit this website to send a message to our Immigration Minister, the Honourable Kevin Andrews MP.
http://www.andrewsmustresign.com/
528 emails and counting.
Well Scotty it will be a very interesting nine and a half (?) weeks, indeed some of the most interesting in politics. Crash or crash through. My money right now is on crash.
[Workchoices will break the unions and later the Labor party through lack of union funds.]
Carney implied that the ALP would have to restructure, he didn’t mean it would cease to exist.
121 Richard Jones:
Richard, this is a condition known in the offices of political machines as “Candidate’s Disease”. It’s highly contagious and every new candidate is at great risk of catching this disease.
Sideline Eye, I was very sick from this disease for a whole year, but I recovered the day after the election. It never recurred fortunately. Thereafter I was immune though I was still a candidate a number of times.
Howard lives in la la land. On the lib’s website are quotes from Bush and Blair concerning his leadership qualities. I think he genuinely believes that this is a positive for him. In my opinion, he will call the election soon after APEC as he still believes that photo ops with Bush will benefit him electorally. I half expect that he will ask Bush for another endorsement, which should be the last nail in his coffin.
I agree Richard. I picture it (the crash) as something akin to one of those drag racing cars that is not able to turn or change direction, and has suddenly caught fire, the parachute is in tatters, brakes are ineffective, and you don’t know quite where it’s going to come to a stop, but you know it’s going to be ugly.
Hmmm the candidates I know have two very clear faces. The confident one before and after, in almost all company.
The very real tears, the panic, the oath to give it all away and never be so stupid again and near stress breakdown shared with those close and with fellow suffers of election uncertainty.
Then the elation (and tears) of victory, or the deflation (and tears) of loss.
Matt Price is has a blog post going with comments regarding Labor’s I.R. policy:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mattprice/index.php/theaustralian/comments/plan_will_do_no_harm_with_voters/
Peter Brent has just posted a prediction on Mumble: 91 seats to Labor, 2 indies and 57 coalition.
Peter (if you are reading this): any detail on what seats might fall? Or are we still too far out for that?
Richard Jones, found a pic of you…
http://www.flexonline.co.uk/325.html
On the right, fifth pic down. Lookin’ good.
[Peter Brent has just posted a prediction on Mumble: 91 seats to Labor, 2 indies and 57 coalition.]
All these predictions make me nervous!
Crispy, you bastard. I just had lunch!
Howard won’t quit. If he did, even a resurrected Don Bradman wouldnt win his seat for the Liberals.
When you’re fighting a close election you don’t give away any seats. Howard will take his chances, and if the Libs lose he will resign then. Not a day earlier.
As GM wrote in an article, it’ll be the Asian vote in Bennelong which will determine the winner, not the doctors’ wives. Labor’s weapon is Rudd’s ability to speak Mandarin and having Albert Tse as a son-in-law will help. If Labor can garner the Asian vote, they are home and dry.