Michelle Grattan’s leak of the week

Grattan says:

JOHN Howard now appears seriously under threat in his seat of Bennelong, according to Liberal sources. As the Government is hit by more bad polls, the Prime Minister’s electorate, where Labor’s Maxine McKew is challenging, is considered by Liberals to be in greater danger than Malcolm Turnbull’s Wentworth.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

467 comments on “Michelle Grattan’s leak of the week”

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  2. So Glen sweetie you are saying there is nothing at all special about the PM that would give him a boost the whole coalition doesn’t share. Well that is consistent with presidential election analysis; and on that and current polling he is gone gone gone. What a good choice of seat by Maxine.

  3. Bennelong, interesting to read your observations. I have learned to distrust hope, but it’s starting to flicker little flames. As a self-confessed MS Excel nerd, do you know where I could get hold of a template to do some number crunching on the various poll results? I’d like to produce my own graphs and trend lines if possible. cheers

  4. Curious how these pseudo Howard supporters have come out of the woodwork at 5 minutes to midnight when they can sense a major defeat. Not a word about the big issues for 3 years and all of a sudden we have all this on-line commentary about – well everything. Wonder how many of them work for Prime Minister and Cabinet?

    Having just returned from a trip across four states and over a dozen seats and I can tell you that a smell is in the air. A large part of the Libs problem in decreasing order of significance is Howard, Andrews, Ruddock, Downer, Hockey, Abbott. Turnbull is also on the nose but is a special case because he is seen as an example of how quickly a new politician can become corrupted. Costello probably isn’t even in the top ten – he’s irrelevant.

    And the people are concerned about all these one-off Mickey Mouse interventions – they can see them for what they are. The result is actually counterproductive. The more Howard tries to distribute pork and the more ridiculous his interventions become then the more people want him and his claque gone. It’s quite funny to watch as Howard presses on with what used to work but which no longer has a positive effect. The people seem to have woken up. Is this democracy at work?

    The interesting thing is that the Lib backbenchers seem to be caught between a rock and a hard place. They long ago gave up any ability to determine their fate – the stupid thing is that many of them believed him when he said that he would stay as long as his party wanted him. The truth is that many of them will go down with the ship, Howard’s legacy will be trashed and all this will probably become a Harvard Case Study.

  5. Ah sweet hope. I had that in 2004 and just ended up sitting on my porch with a bottle of rum muttering incoherant nothings at the drunks that surrounded me.

    I’ve learnt from my mistake. There will be no chickens counted. I will only ever believe one poll again.

    Did anyone see an article recently comparing this election to 1969? The parallels are erie. I get the feeling ‘Don’s Party’ might be re-lived this year.

  6. My partner had this theory years ago. Howard will never hand over to Peter Costello because Costello would dismantle his (Howard’s) precious legacy. I scoffed, but now I think she’s right. It’s, I reckon, the basis of Howard’s downfall.

    Does IMHO mean “In my humble opinion” and what does Lol mean? Sorry, new to this.

  8. “Power corrupts all!”
    So true. John Winston Howard should have gone 12 months ago. He could have had a nice sendoff. But, oh no, “Honest John” was arrogant enough to think only he could win the next election. And Janette so loves that nice house at Kirribilli.
    If the Liberals go down to a massive defeat in October/November, the blame can be laid at the Rodent’s door. Costello at least might have saved some of the furniture.

  11. Glen, the media have given your side a free ride for 11 years.
    You’ve still got the likes of Alan Jones, Piers Ackerman and Andrew Bolt in your corner, and commercial AM radio is on the whole very pro-Howard still.

  14. The problem for conservative governments in Australia is that the cultural Marxists have such a tight grip on many of our institutions, and thus are in positions to effectively distribute propaganda. Hence the failure of the Coalition to attack their determined ideological enemies in places like the ABC and the education sector has hurt.

  15. Glen: Have you ever considered the reason that so many Australians and media support Labor because of Howard’s abysmal policies and front bench. In that case, they are not biased, just rational.

  16. Swordfish: Howard has placed so many of his cronies in important political organisations throughout his tenure INCLUDING the ABC board.

  17. Oh yeah, Channel 9 has long been known as Labor heartland. In all those dark years of opposition… it was often only the Packer family who were keeping the candle of hope alive.

  18. Fruitbat comment of the day:

    The problem for conservative governments in Australia is that the cultural Marxists have such a tight grip on many of our institutions, and thus are in positions to effectively distribute propaganda. Hence the failure of the Coalition to attack their determined ideological enemies in places like the ABC and the education sector has hurt.

  20. I can think of only two radio talkback hosts/announcers on commercial AM radio who’d you call Rudd supporters: Mike Carlton and Peter Fitzsimons(2UE).
    John Laws, Neil Mitchell, Steve Price, Alan Jones, Ray Hadley, Phillip Clark, Chris Smith – all Howard supporters.

  21. Oh Glen, give it a break….

    How about if JWH scrambles overr the line to form government you come back and crow as much as you like. You can even post the same comment over and over again, (like you do anyway), in the meantime just leave the conversation to the grown-ups.

  23. Sideline Eye is on the ball. As I’ve posted before I recall Keating lampooning the likely of Downer as Foreign Affairs Minister, Bishop et al.

    It starting to get spookingly similar to 1996. Back then rusted on Laborites couldn’t undertand why they were facing defeat, a govt with a reforming record and got the economy back on track by 95/96. They too were up against an opposition with little experience and a leader who apparently had baggage.

    This time its the Liberals in denial – Ruddock, Abbott et al who can’t understand the polls. The Govt has a good record of economic achievement. We’ve got Liberal MP’s saying the the public aren’t grateful. Up against an opposition with little experience and a leader who ducks and weaves with the best of them.

    Keating focussed on the macro – 17 quarters of economic growth (big deal said the public)

    Costello boasts about a $17billion surplus (big deal said the public)

  24. Derek, LOL stands for “laugh out loud”. You know, the kinda reaction you get when you read Glen or Swordfish’s more off-the-wall comments.

  25. Don’t under estimate the spending splurge that is coming soon. No child will be without an i-pod. No home without a widescreen plasma TV. These are the things that will resonate with a community vitally interested in the subtle philososphical differences that separate our major political parties.

  26. “Enjoy the inevitable slide to defeat.”
    Hehe.

    tough for you joho – you just wont be able to get rid of the stench of 11 years of trashing australian values for something as contrived (in your image) as “australian values”. I reckon you have been on the nose since ’01 but as there was no real alternative slipped and snaked through. Now methinks small target and Mr Clean is well on the way to sweeping you out of Kirribilli, and what irreverence and exquisite irony to lose your seat in the process.

    the end of this era has been a long time coming.

  27. Swordfish Says:The problem for conservative governments in Australia is that the cultural Marxists have such a tight grip on many of our institutions, and thus are in positions to effectively distribute propaganda.

    You mean like News Ltd?

  28. Growler, that’ll drive up inflation pretty damn fast; the RBA won’t be at all happy. It will thus put the govt’s economic management credentials down the gurgler.

  29. ” the cultural Marxists ”

    If ony there was a way to make sure that the major news networks like Newscorp were run by Capitalists who understood the need for profit instead of the hardline Communist types like Rupert Murdoch and the Packers.

  31. We were discussing this morning who would replace John Howard as a candidate if he retires before the election.
    I feel he is only going through the paces right now and seems to have his hands off the wheel.
    A friend of Janette’s said the APEC function would be John and Janette’s “swan song”. Another reason for Janette to be upset that Laura is not coming.
    George Bush evidently offered not to come if it would be a negative for John Howard. Obviously John would want George at his final bash.
    I also think it is highly likely that John Howard will announce his resignation just after APEC.
    The writing is well and truly on the wall.
    It would take a miracle for him to win now – maybe one engineered by Malcolm Turnbull.
    The new Bennelong candidate would need to be very high profile – perhaps a sports star – to have any chance at all against Maxine.
    Any suggestions?
    Also would Peter Costello take over automatically or would Malcolm Turnbull insist on a ballot?

  32. Mr Jones, you may well replace Fonzie in my heart, and what you say makes sense, but making sense isn’t enough in politics do you have, are you suggesting it is more likely than not?

    If you are right the PM into the election would have to be Turnbull, he hasn’t been around long enough to have the same stench of death. No-one else has time to distance the past, they were so integral to.

  35. Ta, Tim W.

    I think I’ll try English. I’m afraid that the off-the-wall comments from Glen and his crew do not make me laugh. They go to the rabid soul of the Howard government. It’s what they believe, hence the dog-whistling, etc.

    It would be nice to hear a reasoned Lib voice on this forum.

  36. Jasmine, I think it’s slightly more likely than not. I’d say 55%.
    The real question is, will the likes of Downer,Nelson and Ruddock and co recognise that their only chance of winning would be with Malcolm Turnbull?
    Slotting in Peter Costello without a ballot would mean the loss of even more seats and put the Coalition out of power for at least another term. Malcolm is a fresh face. Yes he has his faults and appears somewhat arrogant and obviously he is very wealthy but he doesn’t carry the baggage of all the others.
    He would give Kevin Rudd a good run for his money.
    Even if he lost, he would minimise the damage for the Coalition and give them a chance of getting back in six years.
    If John Howard stays, the odds are that the Coalition will lose and be out of office for nine to twelve years, that is unless Malcolm Turnbull really can pull something spectacular out of the bag with the mill and the old growth forests.

  37. In their own interests the Liberals should tell Glen to stop posting his garbage here. I doubt there are any floating voters here, but if there are they will rapidly conclude that Liberal = idiot.

  38. There are a host of variables which will come into play on who takes over the Liberal Party, none of which we can be certain about at the moment. Obviously who ever takes over is unlikely to win the following election so you need someone who is arrogant and ambitious enough to try to steamroll his way to the top of the pack and who thinks he can stay there indefinitely. I think Costello and Nelson are the most likely and maybe Abbott. Downer has too much baggage. All the others I think will want to wait and see how popular Rudd becomes before they have a shot.

  41. Richard Jones:

    Mark Taylor for Bennelong. He lives in or around the electorate and has previously stated his admiration for Howard.

    I was once a big fan of Taylor: once.

  42. Richard Jones Says: We were discussing this morning who would replace John Howard as a candidate if he retires before the election.

    I reckon it’s going to be Abbott. He’s unelectable as PM, but he’ll provide them the leadership for the year (if he makes it that long) before the re-alignment.

  43. I like all very much the possible alt PM’s bar Turnbull. And I’m tempted to agree with Adam which will worry him I have no doubt.

  44. Lord D,

    You got to be kidding!

    Supposed good economic management has brought the Libs to the edge of oblivion.

    It will be full throttle spending and damn the consequences.

    Howard has form on this. Who can forget the 1980 fistful of dollars campaign which they cheerfully took back once they were safely re-elected. They have no shame.

  46. Richard

    73 “I also think it’s highly likely … ” etc.

    Yes. It was supposed to be the grand finale, Bush and Howard – warriors together – saving the world. Then it all went pear-shaped.

    Now, he’ll go through the motions and offer an excuse – crook knee is good – and shuffle off the stage. Nice to read that I’m not entirely alone in believing that Howard will fall on his sword before the next election.

    He has always said that he will stay as long as the party needs him. The party needs him now (A) Like a hole in the head or (B) To go.

  47. Richard Jones @ #73

    I’m also inclined to believe that Howard will resign rather than lead the Coalition to what appears to be an ignominious defeat.

    I accept analyses of the PM’s persona as a “fighter” – he is certainly prepared to go to incredible lengths to achieve his ideological agenda, regardless of how unpalatable it is to many. But I also believe that deep down in his character make up he is ego driven. If he sees the writing on the wall – that the Government will lose this election whether he is the leader or not – then he will choose to resign to protect his “unbeaten” electoral legacy.

    He may be a fighter, but he is also too full of hubris and an over-stated belief in his own self-importance to countenance the ignominy of defeat. And definitely not opposition.

    I have no doubt that Howard is now kicking himself that he did not resign last year under different, more glorified circumstances. But he probably believed, as did most observers, that he could turn the polls around.

    Resigning just months out from an election will be interpreted by some as cowardly, but I just don’t believe that John Howard has the ticker to weather an electoral defeat of the magnitude that these polls are suggesting. It will cast a serious cloud over what will already be interpreted as a controversial and somewhat dark chapter in Australia’s political history.

    That said, I’d love to see him stay on and get his a** kicked.

  48. The new Bennelong candidate would need to be very high profile – perhaps a sports star – to have any chance at all against Maxine.

    Ah, what a nice image that presents. Imagine future political news articles, several years from now: “And today in the safe Labor seat of Bennelong …”

    Maybe there IS a future where the trees bloom, birds sing all of the time, the sun shines, and people are happy.

  49. I hate that Labor is retaining the secondary boycott legislation recently bought in by Costello. That means it will be illegal to group protest a product or business which contains or runs questionable practices.

    Isn’t that taking things too far? Are they going to put in jail a bunch of parents protesting a toy or food product?

    I think that if you live in a democratic nation, peaceful protest shouldn’t be illegal.

  50. Roger @ 48

    The problem for the liberal party is that over 60 % of members have never known an election defeat and only 22% where around for the 1993 loss. Some of those 22% are retiring this time around. They don’t know what it is like to be defeated. They don’t understand that John Howard’s time is up. Only 6 know what it is like to be defeated and then inventorially win it back and the hard slog in Opposition. Of those 6 one of them, Wilson Tuckey is calling for a change of leader.

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