In an effort to keep the previous thread at least partly on topic, I hereby open a new one for purposes of general chatter. Perhaps you might like to take a shot at guessing Tuesday’s Newspoll result, which seems to be an increasingly popular parlour game among the leisured classes. Ever so much water has passed under the bridge since the 56-44 result of last fortnight: an interest rate increase, a new round of Liberal leadership tension and last week’s stock market dive. Newspoll is conducted from Friday through to Sunday, so Kevin Rudd’s New York misadventure is unlikely to be much of a factor.
[Howard; “But Prime Minister John Howard abruptly terminated a press conference when asked if his Government was responsible for the story surfacing so close to the start of an election campaign.â€]
And his right Shoulder was twitching like buggery, as well as tone of voice getting hiher and higher – sounded like he was going to explode into an uncontrollable rage.
So Howard knew alright.
[Why hasnt the media asked Mr Rudd this question….
Mr Rudd you claim that you cannot remember the evening because you got drunk…then how can you stand by your statements that you acted like a complete gentleman throughout the night?]
Glen, I believe this has been asked and answered a number of times, including on 7:30 tonight.
Amused i believe that at that stage Egypt was a secular country i believe Nasser was secularist so i don’t think it was a bad thing to have a drink…after all he didn’t pissed like Rudd…
Rudd has shown very bad errors of judgment in his political career that question his character…
– His glass jaw calling up editors and telling them not to print stuff
– His decision to meet with Brian Burke on three separate occasions
– His decision to support a fake Long Tan service on Sunrise
– His decision to get pissed and go to a strip joint whilst representing Australia as an observer at the UN and then kept it a secret for 4 years and then once it came out blamed it on alcohol…
God even Beazley had a cleaner record…
I’m not saying Rudd would be a bad Prime Minister, just that he’d do better to have more experience as a leader before becoming PM…that’s why i still think Howard will scrap home and then Rudd will come to power in 2010.
Actually no BV and Kerry didnt press him enough he let him get off by saying he could remember some things but not others…Kerry after all was Whitlam’s media adviser so no wonder he lets the ALP off so easily…
Mr Squiggle you are right, Rudd will always have New York. The thing is, it doesn’t matter much. Just as Tony Abbott’s erstwhile illegitimate son will always be his baggage, but also doesn’t matter much in the public’s grading of the man.(So much else to work with there.)
Downer and the fishnets, now that’s another matter. I think Noocat’s onto something… the smear has to resonate with the public narrative about who the smeared one is. The fishnets just helped confirm what everyone was already thinking about Alexander – private schoolboy twit with a penchant for mummy’s evening wear. Hence the permanent albatross nature of the incident.
That said, really massive instances of hypocrisy are also damaging. Family values crusaders caught in the midst of affairs, for instance. Not mentioning any names.
Virtually unchanged does not mean unchanged. If the ALP lead had dropped, even marginally, then that would be big news.
It hasn’t been reported. So there is only one conclusion. ALP up 1% to 56% TPP. Primary vote probably unchanged.
Always look on the bright side of life!
SirrEggo
7pm ABC news, Sydney. And, I think, mentioned again during the 7.30 Report. “Virtually unchanged … pref PM .. up for Rudd .. ” I think, cld be wrong.
But. How really enjoyable to see libs running like rabbits from mention of sleaze and pink bits! What fun!
I dunno Scorpio, Glen seems to have taken collected every piece of mud. I suspect he may have them made up into a fridge magnet to be sure he can recount them at every oppourtunity.
Then again, I’m just guessing the he might not be swinging voter.
I can’t believe you guys are still harping on about Strippergate. So the TV presenters couldn’t get him to admit on TV that he saw some bare boobs. Big deal. Get over it. There’s real issues out there.
Glen,
In relation to Menzies, overall I think he was a pretty good PM but his Egyptian trip was a disaster and even President Eisenhower of the USA said that Menzies deliberately sabotaged the peace negotiations because Britain and France wanted to go to war, so I wouldn’t be bragging too much about his failed Egyptian trip.
Just logged on to the online 7.30 Report.
Havent watched any of it yet but was astounded to see one of the items headed; “Howard makes plans for next term in office”.
Crikey, the man either has no shame or is super confident he can derail the “Ruddmobile”. Maybe he is just delusional and “drunk with power”.
He sure doesn’t like the idea of giving it up, does he.
The last Newspoll was 56/44 so any increase would be devestating.
http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/0802%20fed.pdf
Maybe a 56.5 ?
It looks like we will have to stay up to watch Lateline whether we like it or not.
The suspense is starting to get to me a little.
Correction. I think the ALP TPP will be 57%, up 1%.
I thought the last Newspoll was ALP 55%.
I wasn’t bragging Paul K about Menzies peace mission to Egypt anyway the British and French wanted a war and they got it…what could have Menzies done to stop something already decided upon…Do not sully the name of the Ming just because he beat Labor so many times in the 1950s and 1960s…
I’m tipping 55-45 virtually no change…
But the next round of polls will be different i hope they have lead in questions about strippergate…
Don’t worry santas presents will be here soon.
Hey Noocat
you said ” The vast majority are actually quite laid back. We are not Americans. And Australia actually has one of the lowest proportions of active Christians in the Western world.”
I agree. and I also agreed with the Australian Democrat who observered that we seem to be over-represented by Christians in parliament.
Whilst over-representation is true of both sides of parliament, it seems to be more true of sections of the liberal party, especially the NSW right.
I’m pretty laid back myself…in fact its almost my bedtime so I won’t keep typing long, but I can’t help thinking that KR has been shown up for a two faced preacher. First Mrs Rudd made the best use of workchoices possible and now Mr Rein is out at the New York’s finest nipple palace.
The picture on KR is building piece by piece, its no wonder John Howard was a little tense at today’s press confernece. My guess is that he is thinking he will call the election at the last possible date – Jan 08.
Glen, give it up! “Strippergate” is a 2 day wonder at best, it’s so unimportant that Channel 9 news deemed 5 local N.S.W stories more interesting LOL Tomorrow’s Newspoll: Rudd widens his lead as preferred PM, the ALP’s lead virtually unchanged.
When will the Liberals and their sycophant Milne ever learn? Throwing dirt at Kevin Rudd is counterproductive.
I think it would be good timing for Rudd to leave the limelight for a while and let some of the others move in – want to avoid over exposure.
Mr Squiggle Squiggled:
[ My guess is that he is thinking he will call the election at the last possible date – Jan 08.]
That will NEVER happen , people will cruicfy ANY pollie who dares interrrupt their Holiday break for an election- plus schools will not be available during school holidays due to security issues by the various state education depts.
Glen,
I simply read from the historic record. This is what one Egyptian reporter said about Menzies at the time. These are not my words but the reporters:
Menzies was…” blunt, hostile, and arrogant…like a bull in a China shop. He was often drunk and he sweated profusely. We began to refer to him as the Australian mule.”
Quote is from ‘Warriors at Suez’ by Donald Neff – page 303.
So he was overseas, drunk and representing Australia. Lucky there wasn’t a visit to a strip club.
I’m reckoning on 58% ALP TPP and equal down slump Coalition.
November 3rd or early December for me Frank…
He can’t go in January even if he wanted to…
For once Glen is on the Money, but prefer 8th December, cos of CHOGM.
Glen,
I have no problem with Menzies defeating Labor in the 50’s and 60s. I’m not sullying Ming. I simply read from the historic record. This is what one Egyptian reporter said about Menzies at the time. These are not my words but the reporters:
Menzies was…” blunt, hostile, and arrogant…like a bull in a China shop. He was often drunk and he sweated profusely. We began to refer to him as the Australian mule.”
Quote is from ‘Warriors at Suez’ by Donald Neff – page 303.
So he was overseas, drunk and representing Australia. Lucky there wasn’t a strip club to visit.
Here’s one
Just listen how this guy has an almighty go at the PM for being out of touch
Ironic don’t you think?
On a different note:
“Mr Howard warned that the coalition’s industrial relations changes would be lost if Labor was elected – with no future conservative government brave enough to reinstate them.”
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/pm-sets-out-fifth-term-agenda/2007/08/20/1187462152268.html
This is not the first time that Howard has warned us that WorkChoices will go and NEVER come back again if the government loses the election. Fine by me, and probably by a LOT of other people too! Sounds great actually.
You’d almost think that Howard believes that WorkChoices is popular. Does he really think that these kinds of warnings are helping his cause? I wouldn’t exactly regard WorkChoices as a vote winner.
OK, how do you put a internet link up, it didn’t go through….
SirEggo Says:
August 20th, 2007 at 10:11 pm
OK, how do you put a internet link up, it didn’t go through….
Just paste it into the comments box and it will come out fine.
Here we go again…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TwKgt3lbsG4
I think Howard’s argument is flawed. If no one else would bring these laws back in again because it would be too brave simply enhances the argument that they are too severe and unfairly impact Australians.
Steveo’s prediction is 56 to 44 ALP
And so says Steveo
I think some of the content of this particular politician’s speech is ironi given the current situation he’s in.
Ariustotle at post 125 says: “This mud-slinging doesn’t shift votes, it merely reinforces already held perceptions……I really don’t know why the Coalition have adopted this US style tactic, it doesn’t wash here, this isn’t middle America, there won’t be hordes of people aghast at this story.”
Spot-on in my view.
While the US is awash with Evangelical types with whom this sort of thing gains traction, that sort of voter is very much on the fringe here. It may resonate with Family First and the like, but not in the mainstream.
What impacts here are the usual meat-and-three-veg issues such as concerns about the economy (interest rates), education, health and employment/industrial (Workchoices).
On none of these are the Libs travelling well. Each has either been neutralised as a threat, or else is clearly dominated by the ALP. Further, every poll for the last 8 months has had them substantially in front and by a crushing margin.
Successive attempts at the famous Howard Wedge have come to nought, and the Libs have been reduced to transparent pork barelling, a tactic which only makes them look desperate.
So, while talking about Rudd’s trip to a strip joint may be salacious fun, it’s not gonna win them the election. It may pick them up a few votes from the wowserist fringe, but as I said, for most people it will be a non-issue simply because most voters are not Pentecostal Ministers.
#317
The over-representation of Christians in Australia parliament is not a bad thing, Christians in Australia do not complain about being prescuted like their betheren in the US and aren’t wanting to introduce consitution amendments restricting or banning abortion or outlawing same sex marriage.
I don’t get American fundamentalist holier than thou religion. Is it because of ignorance of the outside world? Is it too much trust and reliance on an all powerful America?
Tsk tsk glen. Push polling is very unethical and .. oh I forgot your Howard’s man – ethics don’t matter so long as you win 🙂
Tick tick tick. What presents does uncle tony bring us tonight?
#303
If Labor loses this election, Rudd will be slowly pecked by his party, his support in the party is conditional, he was the right man at the right time.
“You never even read my post or you would have seen that polling figures for Hawke were influenced to a large degree by Keating and the media and that they did not reflect on the “real†situation of the time.” – Scorpio
Pfft! The “real” situation at the time was that silly old Jellyback was being slaughtered by John Hewson and in the minds of the electorate he had morphed into a Max Gillies caricature. Now, I accept that you sincerely believe your version of events (mythologising being a cherished hobby for the Left) but rest assure his political demise was just as pathetic as it deserved to be.
Meanwhile, while Rudd was wasting a day dealing with his breathtakingly foolish escapade in the Big Apple, the PM was laying out his plans for his next term. It was a good speech, articulate and well-crafted, and delivered with confidence. I especially like his reference to changing the relationship between the different levels of Government – here’s hoping his 5th and final term in office will involve a really radical restructuring of our federal system.
Not too long till Lateline…oh, the wait.
55-45
I’m sure you all saw it, but Lateline just reported:
Newspoll:
2PP ALP – 55 Coalition – 45
Preferred PM Rudd up to 46%
Also a slide in Howard’s dominance as economic manager.
Stick a fork in Howard, he’s done.
Anti-climax. I thought the last one was 56/45 so this is 1% reduction.
Did they mention if any polling was done on Sunday?
Yes – TPP 55-45
Rudd also up 2 points as preferred PM, to 46, Howard stagnant on 39
Strippergate? Yawn. Thats soooo last weekend dude.
If newspoll shows ALP steady or rising then the good news is that the absurd “business council waffles irrelevantly about non-existent threats to Keating’s worksplace reforms” ads have flopped in the arse.
polled fri sat and sun
Hoots if you didnt notice Howard was leading 47 to 31 that is a 16% point lead on economic management…
55 ALP down 1
45 Coalition up 1
Who will replace Howard if he loses in November???
Costello for 1 year and then Turnbull or Nelson
Who will replace Rudd if he loses in November???
Gillard or Swan
yup flatline
beeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeep