The Fairfax papers today carry their monthly ACNielsen poll, which shows a narrowing of Labor’s two-party lead from 58-42 to 55-45. Labor’s primary vote is down from 49 per cent to 46 per cent, while the Coalition is up from 39 per cent to 41 per cent. The movement most likely represents a correction from a somewhat excessive result last time. Now please, for the love of Christ, no more polls until next Tuesday …
The idea being that the independent has the opportunity to be the umpire rather than be (potentially) sidelined completely after a subsequent poll?
If neither side could form government how long would it actually take for a second poll and (heading into hypothetical fantasy land here) how would the issue of ongoing deadlocked parliaments be resolved?
Oh, I’d like to withdraw my “union hack” comment above. I haven’t yet met a career unionist I’d give time of day to, but no reason to label the Labor candidate for Dobell as such.
Yes but that is speculation based on hypothesised movement between now and the election, not an analysis of the current polls. You can’t just take the WA figure from this poll and ignore the SA and Qld results.
As I said, if you want to say that things will change, and suggest how they will change, then that is fair enough. But it is not reflected in the current poll.
In any case the situation you and Glen describe is IMO unlikely. It is possible that the election will be so close that WA is crucial. But it is far more likely that the swing (or not) in Qld, NSW and SA will be sufficiently large (or small) that WA is irrelevant.
I was chatting to my good friend Aesop and was discussing with him the current political climate in Australia. He mentioned that he had been observing the situation rather closely and offered a couple of his famed fables that he believed, summed up the state of play. You may well have heard of one or perhaps even both, but like a classic film, they are always worth revisiting.
THE ASS & HIS BURDENS.
A pedlar who owned an ass, one day bought a quantity of salt, and loaded up his beast with as much as he could bear. On the way home the ass stumbled as he was crossing a stream and fell into the water. The salt got thoroughly wetted and much of it melted and drained away, so that, when he got on his legs again, the ass found his load had become much less heavy. His master, however, drove him back to town and bought more salt, which he added to what remained in the panniers, and started out again. No sooner had they reached the stream than the ass lay down in it, and rose, as before, with a much lighter load. But his master detected the trick, and turning back once more, bought a large number of sponges, and piled them on the back of the ass. When they came to the stream, the ass again lay down: but this time, as the sponges soaked up large quantities of water, he found, when he got up on his legs, that he had a bigger burden to carry than ever.
Moral: you may play a good card once too often.
THE SHEPHERD’S BOY & THE WOLF
The shepherd’s boy was tending his flock near a village, and thought it would be great fun to hoax the villagers by pretending that a wolf was attacking the sheep: so he shouted out, ‘Wolf! wolf!’ and when the people came running up he laughed at them for their pains. He did this more than once, and every time the villagers found they had been hoaxed, for there was no wolf at all. At last a wolf really did come, and the boy cried, ‘Wolf! wolf!’, as loud as he could: but the people were so used to hearing him call that they took no notice of his cries for help. And so the wolf had it all his own way, and killed off sheep after sheep at his leisure.
Moral: you cannot believe a liar even when he tells the truth.
Poll after poll seem to show no relevance to what has happened in the last week. Its like watching a game at Telstra Dome with the the scoreboard showing the scores from the MCG.
As all four polls have aligned to a 54 – 56 ALP 2pp could it be that most people have decided who they are voting for?
The polls also continue to show the Labor is getting the swing where it needs it – the Galaxy Bennelong poll is further indication of that.
Cannot understand why they bother printing the state by state numbers – it makes everybody look like an idiot.
But Martin every Westpoll bar the recent one had the Libs out by 54-46 or 55-45 thus AC is more in line with consistent Westpolls and is thus more relative to the actual vote…i dont know about local polls in QLD and SA but if the SA vote was the same on election day that would be a 17% swing to Labor highly unlikely, clearly they are ahead but by that much…unlikely…
Cerdic there is no way u can compare Krudd to the Man of Steel one has been PM and Opposition leader and Treasurer and one has worked for Wayne Goss and DFAT…Rudd could well be a good Labor PM but he’ll be terrible if he’s put in with so little experience…
In the similar way that the overall federal result for this AC Nielsen poll is consistent with almost every other federal voting intention poll taken over the last 6 months and hence should be even more believable.
And since we’ve had the “JWH = 3% over the campaign” hypothesis mentioned a few times above I will again remind readers that while Howard certainly did win the 2004 campaign against Latham he at best broke even in his 1996, 1998 and 2001 campaigns.
Cerdic Conan if you would like a serious answer to your question its probably worth referring it to “Kevin Rudd supporters” (as most of us don’t consider ourselves “Lefties”). It would also help if you used his correct name (Kevin Rudd or Rudd).
Likewise I tend to ignore posts that call the PM “Rodent” (although it does make me laugh). In the late ’60s when I was at primary school we used to refer to the DLP as “Dumb Litter Punks” but that was because at the time I only had a grade 5 education.
Oh, and in the interests of accuracy, it’s worth pointing out that only 1 out of the 5 previous Westpolls have shown a movement to the government and hence potential gain of 2 seats. Four out of 5 have shown some movement to the ALP.
If you aggregate the 5 polls you get a swing to the ALP of 4%, which would not just save its 2 marginals but deliver 2 government seats to the ALP.
If you decide that this latest is a rogue and aggregate the 4 previous then you still get a swing of 2.6% to the ALP for the same gain.
Of course if you decide that 4 out of the last 5 were rogue polls and only the June Westpoll was an accurate reflection of voting intention then you can (just) get a 2 seat gain for the coalition.
I fear Stephen Kaye is a touch hysterical (suicides, indeed). Probably reflects the state of mind of the Howard government.
So this poll at best may have 200 people surveyed from WA and is considered more accurate than one that has 400 surveyed showing the opposite to what the conservative supporters here desire. What a joke. Who is kidding who? Whatever makes you feel good people.
We even had one character suggest that this poll proves the Westpoll is wrong, thus giving the state breakup credence then overlooking the Queensland figure. Do you give this Queensland figure credence as well?
J-D If Labor were to gain one more seat than the Coalition, Tony Windsor would most likely allow Kevin Rudd to form government. He would be in a very strong position for a while to gain benefits for his constituency.
You could be pretty certain that Kevin Rudd would call an election before the three year term was up, provided the numbers favoured him.
Also there could be a vote of no confidence in the government before the term was up. One would think that Kevin Rudd would prefer to go at the time of his own choosing and studiously avoid that.
Derek, perhaps in much the same way that those disagreeing with the government intervention in aboriginal communities are supporters of child abuse, those who were against the war in Iraq supported terrorism, people supporting Rudd`s economic policies are promoters of suicide. You know it makes sense. I`m Boll.
As a rider, if the numbers were even, he would favour the Coalition.
Antony Green points out the parallelism between Bennilong and the nation as a whole.
Sportingbet odds have a Cao;ition victory at $2.50 and a McKew victory at $2.35.
Perhaps there is an opportunity there.
[I will again remind readers that while Howard certainly did win the 2004 campaign against Latham he at best broke even in his 1996, 1998 and 2001 campaigns.]
I think this is a very good point. Furthermore, Rudd is a far better debater in parliament than Howard. The only TV debate Howard has won was in 1996. There will only be one this time, and Rudd has everything to gain from it, whereas Howard knows at best he can only break even.
Latest Rumor from Crikey re Poll Date.
“The mailman always knows. Whilst out and about on the “Your Rights At Work†campaign in the weekend, a number of Australia Post employees (office and delivery staff) told me that they were told that they are unable to take leave in October. One has had his Long Service Leave (planned for a number of months) rescinded. Now why would that be?”
I reckon Howard will call the poll for December 1 as he will use CHOGM as his swansong with the other Commonwealth Leaders and it woulds be political suicide to be holding a poll smack bang in the middle of the Spring Racing Carnival, especially on the Satgurday before and after the cup.
The game is on ladies and gentleman. Take your seats and grab your binocolars, the horses at at the time clock, about to swing around into the straight- and right on cue it’s beginning to rain. Rudd is out in front on his own at the moment, can he stay the distance ?
Question is STROP can Rudd’s even more inexperienced front bench stay the distance….no…
I think Howard would have a cold sweat with this poll. It looks very ominous.
Scanning down it would have been obvious that the Victorian and WA figures were just plain wrong, not even close.
WA has been at around 50/50 all year and of course 56/44 last week and the opposite this week. So the reasonable assumption would have to be around 50/50 until further notice. Victoria has been 58/42 all year so 51/49 has to be nonsense even for the most optomistic.
NSW has come back a few points to 56/44 and is reasonable. Tasmania and SA have been polled as a white wash all year so no surprises here though a little on the optomistic side for Labor.
Then Qld coming up at 57/43 when it has been 54/46 all year would have made Howard weak at the knees. Thats a whole bunch of seats right there, enough to win the election if all other things stay the same or thereabouts.
So Howard would have scanned the report noting a whole bunch of errors to be basically discarded and then a little voice in the back of his mind about Qld – ‘it cant be that bad can it?’ Probably an over statement, another error – but something to worry about for sure.
The only thing this poll does is raises questions about the vote in Qld. It otherwise as a whole the poll seems titlted towards the Govt but within the error range? Probably 56-57 in line with the other polls. Basically little movement at all.
If internal polling confirms a further shift for Rudd in Qld watch Howard and co run off to Qld giving them squillions.
N.S.W: ALP: 56, COAL: 44
VIC: ALP: 51, COAL: 49(WTF)
QLD: ALP: 57, COAL: 43(WTF)
SA: ALP: 62, COAL: 38
WA: COAL: 56, ALP: 44
Bran Mc, there’s a sever disjoin between the overall adds and the seat odds. All the bookies are firming for Labor overall, but the individual seat odds at both PortlandBet and SportingBet fail to have Labor ahead in 16 seats. To borrow from economics, perhaps the seat odds are a lagging indicator.
Frank Calabrese says “it woulds be political suicide to be holding a poll smack bang in the middle of the Spring Racing Carnival, especially on the Satgurday before and after the cup.”
It wasn’t political suicide in 2001 when the election was held on Nov10, which is also a possible date this year and is the Saturday after the cup.
With the betting market does it depend on which type of people usually take a punt? I know that I have never bet on horse race or the like.
Antony, I think it’s a bit like the footy tipping competition. You know that there will be an upset each week but the problem is which one. Here, you know that with the opinion polls as they are that seats will fall but the problem is to pick which ones. The punters have gone for the obvious marginals but outside those which ones would you put your dough on at this stage as there are just so many that could fall.
Cerdic, your first two comments on this thread were of such poor quality that I deleted them and put you in moderation. Your last two comments haven’t made it through: one boringly repeated a point you had already made, the other consisted of a laundry list of Labor MPs with insults attached (and yes, I have deleted similar efforts from the other side of the political fence in the past and will continue to do so in future). You haven’t done anything to warrant being banned, but you do need to lift your game if you want to avoid wasting your time.
William Bowe
Ministry of Truth
http://www.pollbludger.com
The answer to your first question is: that’s only part of the idea. The idea is also that elections consume time and resources and that therefore: (a) the Independents might sincerely feel that forcing another election so rapidly was not a good thing; (b) the Independents might fear attracting hostility for forcing another election so rapidly; (c) the Independents might want to avoid the drain on their own time and resources of another election so soon.
I don’t know the answer to the first part of your second question, but the only possible resolution for the problem of repeatedly deadlocked Parliaments is constitutional change. This is not so hypothetical as you might think: back when its House of Assembly had a membership of 30, Tasmania eventually developed a procedure to deal specifically with the problem of 15-15 deadlocks.
It wasn’t political suicide in 2001 when the election was held on Nov10, which is also a possible date this year and is the Saturday after the cup.
“Political Suicide” is clearly hyperbolic, but mildly interestingly 2001 is the closest that any federal election has been held to the Cup. The 1925 and 1928 were two weekends after the Cup while the 1937 and 1969 elections were two weekends before the Cup.
Probably largely random noise.
William Bowe – I don’t consider any time I spend educating lefty loonies and pointing out inconvenient truths to them (and by the way, Al Gore stole my line!) to be wasted. I have a difficult, but necessary role. So says Cerdic Conan.
Anthony,
Yes, the divergence between seat odds and overall odds is interesting. I think the overall odds are the best indication as they is far and away where the bulk of the money has been laid on the table.
As this blog shows talk is cheap. Where people are prepared to pony up there own money is much more revealing.
Is it possible to calculate William the numbers of right, left and independent supporters on pollbludger??
There could be a thread where people could voluntarily post the results of the Ozpolitics Test. See here:
http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/fun/politics-test/
It probably isn’t completely accurate, but if everyone answers the same questions then it would at least be accurate for that test.
Of course it is, Glen. What’s stopping you? The last time STROP said he was never coming here again, I did a quick count of that particular thread and found 60 anti-government comments against 12 pro-government, which is about what I would have expected.
Seems like the right answer to me William
Lets assume the state breakdowns are correct (just as an exercise) it still means a 24 seat gain by labor. (including losing two in WA).
A comfortable majority.
Make that 3 ALP loses in WA if that figure was uniform across Swan Cowan and Brand…
ruawake,
I did that exercise too (just for fun) but got 35 seats. including 17 in Qld, 10 in NSW and 7 in SA.
Interestingly, applying the nationwide swing of 8% to all states also produced 35 seats so there seems to be a certain robustness in the pendulum.
http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/fun/politics-test/?id=96b3d3c73ee94369dbb30c7c43020a9f
No smart comments asking how comfortable the fence is…
I think the reason why the ALP is ahead overall with the bookies, but not ahead in 16 seats, is that people dont know which seats to bet on. There are 10-13 seats that could fall easily, but the rest are up in the air. Portland has the ALP ahead in 14 government marginal seats, and behind in one of its own (Swan). For example in the seats outside the 5% range there are some very close markets at Portland, with the ALP behind
Bowman ALP 2.15, LNP 1.6
Flynn ALP 2.45, LNP 1.5
Herbert ALP 2.08, LNP 1.7
Hinkler ALP 2.20, LNP 1.62
Page ALP 2.00, LNP 1.7
Also there are a couple in the 5% range where ALP is close.
Bennelong ALP 2.40, LNP 1.48
Stirling ALP 1.90, LNP 1.80
Swan ALP 1.90, LNP 1.80
Only takes 3 of these to move to ALP and 16 is reached.
Out of interest Sportingbet has similar seat numbers, except it has the ALP ahead in Stirling and Swan
I’m not sure that holding Government with the help of an independent would be a huge problem it would be better than losing by 2 – 3 seats.
The Bracks goverment did it with 2 independents in 99. The Liberals were in disarray and he won in 2002 with a huge majority, 58 – 59% of the vote.
Sorry forgot to add
Deakin ALP 2.05, LNP 1.70
McMillan ALP 2.45, LNP 1.50
Dear Antony
I have read here and on other sites that Labor needs to get 51.4% of the votes to get a majority. Isn’t this a major flaw in our electoral system? Couldn’t the AEC draw the boundaries so that Labor could take power closer to 50%?
Glen, you’ve made factual inaccuracies in just about every post so far, but please make them a bit harder to spot.
The AC Nielsen WA result was 44/56.
The last federal election result in WA was 44.6/55.4.
Thus this poll shows somewhere between 0.2% and 1.1% swing to the government (depending on the rounding in the reported ACN figure.)
Brand is on a margin of 4.6%. It is not even close to being threatened by a result such as this.
No way, I’m a freakin’ Democrat! So long as I’m on the Senator Murray wing then that’s OK.
http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/fun/politics-test/?id=3fa2eec8be10036267a547ab40e04dc0
Howard has called 3 elections while being prime minister, they were on the October 3rd 1998, November 10 2001 and October 9 2004.
I posted here some time ago that Howard must like early October elections, and only postponed the 2001 election due to the terrorist attacks in september, however someone pointed out that to have had an election in early october 2001 Howard would have had to call it in the first week if september, before the attacks. So he obviously wasn’t planning an early october election in 2001.
I have not been able to find any reason why Howard didn’t follow the early oct pattern in 2001, but I have a feeling if someone had any idea why it may give an indication of what factors Howard weighs up when considering an election date.
(In case you are wondering, the ALP prefers to have elections in march)
If you noticed what i wrote Martin you’ll see that i said if that result translated to every seat the Coalition would pick up Brand…nevertheless the Union stooge they put in that seat who has links with Brian Burke will win but im betting his margin will be shaved…
Ah, but Late Nov/early Dec is an all-around favourite 🙂
Although late in the day, I still think Howard will get the tap from the party. It’s probably the Libs’ last desperate hope, a Costello honeymoon. It would not work, of course, because poor Peter is quite unelectable. And there’s no one else: Abbott is barking mad, Nelson is loopy, Downer is just silly, Turnbull is too new …
Howard would hate it because there’s a slim chance that Costello would undermine his precious legacy. After all, Costello’s brother, the Reverend Tim, might have discussed things like ethics and stuff. Doubt if it would have sunk in, though.
How much credence do we give to leaked internal party polling?
Yes, if the 44/56 result was translated to every seat then the government would win a landslide 15 seats in WA!
Of course if the 56/44 result in NSW translated to every seat there would be a landslide pickup of all 49 seats. ACN poll says that Mitchell will fall with a 27% swing!
Now if you wouldn’t mind, I’d prefer to get back to some rational analysis that might actually be vaguely meaningful.
Bookies odds are just a function of distribution of bets in the pool. These books have been open for months in some cases and the actual odds are really only a good guide when all the bets are in close to polling day
We should be following the weight of new money. Earlier this year the betting told a different story to the polls because the punters expected Howard to come home strongly a la 2004. The rate at which Labor is shortening everywhere suggests the punters now believe the polls and there’s absolutely nothing new going on the Coalition. There’s still a lot of value out there for those of you who fancy a flutter on K07 but get on soon because at this rate they’ll be unbackable before too much longer. And CC – the bookies would really like to see the colour of your money right now.
Simon Howson – that political outlook test on Ozpolitics puts me down as a Nationals voter, and I’ve never voted for the Nationals in my life!