The Fairfax papers today carry their monthly ACNielsen poll, which shows a narrowing of Labor’s two-party lead from 58-42 to 55-45. Labor’s primary vote is down from 49 per cent to 46 per cent, while the Coalition is up from 39 per cent to 41 per cent. The movement most likely represents a correction from a somewhat excessive result last time. Now please, for the love of Christ, no more polls until next Tuesday …
How many Esperanto speakers are there in Australia? How do they vote? Do they live in Bennelong? Has Howard ever commented on the level of Esperanti immigration? Is the President of Esperantistan coming to APEC?
Cerdic, thanks for reminding me of the 4th thing to note in this poll: only 7% think interest rates would be lower under Labor. Looks like their attempts to improve their economic credentials have been to no avail – the again, is that really so surprising when you consider they’ve got Wayne Swan – possibly the most unpleasant man in Parliament – as their Shadow Treasurer?
All the Government has to do is keep hammering away at Rudd’s inexperience and their own great economic record and they’re home and hosed.
Cerdic, why aren’t you at school today?
We know that there are no Esperanto speakers in Bennelong. They woulnd’t be welcome.
I think the preferred PM figure is great for Rudd. 48% to JWH 42%. Still a mile in front.
You know you’re scraping the bottom of the barrell there Steven, when you’re looking for validation in CC’s “comments”.
Adam, if memory serves me correctly, the Australian Esperanto headquarters is a 2 bedroom terrace in Newtown – no kidding. In terms of numbers, I think low teens would be a fair bet. Democrats to a man, just because they like to be different.
All you conservative supporters know how important the preferred PM vote is. Remember Denis S and the Australian have told us about that before.
At 75-73-2 Labor would need to convince one of the independents to be speaker. I don’t know much about Tony Windsor, but I expect Bob Katter Jnr as speaker would be, well, interesting.
However, I expect Ken Ticehurst in Dobell will be an unfortunate casualty in a very “presidential” election and my northern neighbours will end up with a union hack from central casting.
Do not feed the troll.
I still think the govt can close the gap – and so do the bookmakers. But they definitely need to get some movement over the next month. Once the campain start I think it will be harder rather then easier for the govt to close. The ALP is definitely holding fire. Remember the burst of work choices add that pushed the 2pp into the 60’s at the start of the year. Another wave is on the way.
I was looking back the the fortnighly newspolls and was surprised to find the govt was travelling quite well long before the election. From the end of May in 7 out of 13 polls they were at 49% 2pp or better. Latham had one rouge poll of 54% and that was it.
Today’s poll is the best the govt has had for a while but still worse than anything in the lead up to last election.
“Looks like their attempts to improve their economic credentials have been to no avail – the again..” On the contrary Steve a very healthy 58% either believe Labor would do much the same job or better economically as the coalition. It just depends on how you want to arrange and interpret the figures Steve and we all know how you want to do so don’t we?
Pi, I think your getting a little bit existential. Two polls conducted on the same day both show a 7% swing. Yet the Nielsen poll has been interpeted as a relief for the government after the Bennelong poll. The results are the same, why is it a relief?
The reporting of the Nielsen poll has followed exactly the same pattern as one or two Newspolls this year. The pattern is where a preceeding poll showed a swing against the government, up to a level of Labor vote people found a bit hard to believe. But when the next poll goes back to the level of the previous poll, at a more beleivable level, suddenly it gets written up as the government getting back in the game. I think it’s more that papers never admit that perhaps the previous poll might have over-estimated the Labor vote.
Second, all the reporting shows that despite the growth of electronic media, the newpaper headlines in the morning still sets the repartage for the rest of the day. We’ve seen that consistently with Australian reports on Newspoll. The obvious example is the report that caused the Australian to turn feral on the bloggosphere.
The charts for Morgan, Nielsen and Newspoll are all tracking in the same, almost identical, direction If they continue along these lines, it will be 52%ALP 48% Coalition on the day.
I cannot believe this latest poll on its own. It has to be read in conjunction with all the other polls.
The state by state figures are not believable, although the overall figure may be reasonably close.
It really is nonsense for the media commentators to get all excited by a single poll.
They have to have something to write about I suppose.
The interesting part will be when the campaign proper begins.
The Howard government is spending millions of our money in the meantime softening us up, but the real fight begins when the election is announced.
Certainly the ALP would seem to have far more ammunition. It depends how they use it.
The Coalition will fall back on its old chestnut about interest rates always being lower under the Coalition, with absolutely no proof to back it up.
The market has come back again today by 60 odd points when last checking. That’s about as reliable as this opinion poll in determining what will happen this week.
Well it clearly hasn’t hurt them (yet). Why is that?
Saluton, the Esperanto Centre of Australia can be found on Lawson St. in sunny Redfern, not Newtown. Apologies. Melbourne Ethnic Community Radio 3ZZZ has a one-hour Esperanto slot Monday 1pm. By god, that`s now. Unfortunately, I`m not in Aus at the moment, but suggest all of you take a step back from the polls for a minute and indulge yourselves.
Dankon
Excellent analysis Antony, there is no MSM reporting on the fact that Nielsen, Newspoll and Galaxy are all now basically 54-56 ALP TPP, a 7-9% swing.
This is still wipeout territory for the government.
Or, in other words, 64% of the people with a firm opinion think that interest rates would be the same, or lower, under Labor. Looks like the governments scare campaign isn’t biting.
But Steven’s already described his methodology in #34; ignore data that show a negative for the government and then we can clearly see that everything points to a coalition victory!
Antony Green, a 7% swing since the last election perhaps. But the latest ACNielsen would be a relief for the government in that, at least, it doesn’t show further deterioration on the last poll, despite the much dreaded rate rise.
Andrew A, I know Tony Windsor well, he is a very honourable man (and I don’t mean that in a Shakespearian sense!) and very conservative. He used to be National Party. His constituents surely would not be happy for him to put Labor in power. That may depend on what Kevin Rudd would be able to do for his constituents, on the other hand!
He would be happy to be Speaker I would imagine, but not if it meant putting the ALP into goverment.
His vote may prove vital.
Ah, you miss the subtlety of the GG’s analysis. Denis points out that the Opposition leader needs to have a preferred PM lead 12 months out from an election. It doesn’t matter how big the PPM rating is when Howard is ‘bottoming out’ closer to the election… :-/
netvegetable, you could run the argument that in uncertain economic times, for example last week’s market meltdown, that people run for cover with the status quo.
It may also be that that poll was very quirky.
Each election there seem to be rogue polls which suddenly have the other side in front or gaining hugely only to swing back the following poll.
Let’s see if Morgan confirms this poll on Friday.
In any case, you cannot take a single poll as a trend.
I didn’t explain my point about Pi’s analysis based on different people seeing the world differently.
It’s more mundane than that. It’s newspapers pay for their polls, so thats what they report. The SMH and Age have reported their poll in comparison to their other polls, not to the polls of other papers.
I’ve only once seen a newspaper ignore its own poll and report its opponent. I was covering the 1997 UK election in London. The Daily Telegraph’s own poll showed no change, a continuing landslide victory for Labour. A Guardian poll out the same day saw Labour’s vote sliding. The Telegraph put its opponents better poll all over its front page. It was remarkable to see.
There is a mindset in Canberra that Bennelong is somhow immune from the national swing. Every single national poll conducted this year has been of sufficient size to see Benelong falling to Labor. The only two polls conducted in Bennelong have shown exactly the same swings as the National polls done at the same time.
Just do a two-by-two probability box, who wins government across the top, who wins Bennelong down the side. The most likely probabilties lie in the Labor-Labor or Liberal-Liberal boxes. The Lab-Lib or Lib-Lab combinations are the least likely. And every poll has backed a Labor-Labor result for Bennelong and government. If the polls improve for the government, I’d expect them to improve in Bennelong and across the country at the same rate.
Sportingbet has moved back to ALP $1.51, Coalition $2.50 at 1pm from ALP $1.58, Coalition $2.35 this morning. Must have been a couple of bets on the ALP
Indeed, one can, and people do, argue that.
In other words, good economic outlook makes people reelect the government.
OTOH bad economic outlook makes people reelect the government.
Hence we conclude that the government will be reelected.
Nor, as has been oft-reminded but apparently needs to be more-oft-reminded can one estimate a reliable trend starting from a single poll. As long as everyone insists on starting their trends from the always-unbelievable 60-40 poll then we will be seeing a trend towards the government all the way to the election because the ALP will never reach those heights again. But it will continue to be an exercise in figure massage.
The 56-44 result in WA would see Swan Cowan and even Brand come into play if Labor is routed in WA Rudd can kiss the election goodbye…the latest westpoll was rogue considering pervious westpolls AC is more in line with a consistent Liberal lead…
Anything below 55-45 once the election is called and Howard has a chance of winning if Labor is ahead by more than 55-45 then it would be over…still i dispute that Labors vote is so high in QLD and SA but clearly they are ahead of the Coalition….
The 56-44 result in WA would see Swan Cowan and even Brand come into play if Labor is routed in WA Rudd can kiss the election goodbye…the latest westpoll was rogue considering previous westpolls AC is more in line with a consistent Liberal lead…
Anything below 55-45 once the election is called and Howard has a chance of winning if Labor is ahead by more than 55-45 then it would be over…still i dispute that Labors vote is so high in QLD and SA but clearly they are ahead of the Coalition….
New to this site. Is that the real Antony Green?
I’ve been a political junkie for years and it seems to me the cycle works something like this: the Libs run the joint for yonks and ignore such things as social equity, fairness, honesty … they would sell their granny for the skin. Then, when it all begins to stink to high heaven, Labor is elected to clean up the mess. I reckon we have reached that point.
If the poll in Bennelong is right and rolls through to the election, it will be a fitting end for the most destructive PM in Australian political history.
Antony, I understand your reasoning, but my point remains. Analysis over the weekend or today, might have depended upon 2PP, or Primary votes. They might depend upon prefered prime-minister, or prime-minister satisfaction levels (which might/might not play a part in the PM’s seat). A given commentators analysis might have depended upon 2PP then P, then Sat, then Pref… or Pref, P, Sat to 2PP. Or P, Sat, 2PP, Pref… or something completely different, and in a completely different combination.
So analysis, depending on which way the data is interpreted, would lead to completely different theories. The funny thing is, probably all of them would be wrong, for a multitude of different reasons. There is reason to be both positive and negative on all of the polls over the past week, and be both right and wrong.
It’s not that what we know about what goes into the polls (a little bit)… it’s what we DON’T know that goes into the polls (a massive amount) that influences any rational analysis. But if we relied upon knowing more than we didn’t know about a subject, before we made the analysis, we wouldn’t have any attempt at forecasting, and only do analysis on previous elections.
Re this poll
still suggests change of Govt
but state figures do not make sense
SWINGS
NSW 10% to alp (best ever?)
QLD 15% ” (never polled that good since at least 1949)
WA 2 to l ib
VIc 2_3 to Alp
SA approx 12_14 % To ALP (sorry Don’t remember 2PP 2004)
I suggest this poll can only be looked at as a total figure only
That’s the interesting thing that I think just could be going on. It would seem to run contrary to the accepted wisdom.
It may well be indeed. Or it may not be. But as you say, we might get an idea from the next Morgan.
[The Lab-Lib or Lib-Lab combinations are the least likely. And every poll has backed a Labor-Labor result for Bennelong and government. If the polls improve for the government, I’d expect them to improve in Bennelong and across the country at the same rate.]
On the previous thread it was shown (I can’t remember by who sorry) that according to Bennelong’s demographics, it should now be a Labor seat now. Do you think Howard has a personal vote in that seat that may help him retain it? My irrational feeling is he will still win the seat because there will be a group of voters that like the idea of having the P.M. as their local member. You seem to be saying that Bennelong is a MUST WIN seat for the ALP to form government, but surely Bennelong is an exception because of its status as the P.M.’s seat?
Am I the only one who thinks that the theory of a swampy Venus was actually a fairly logical theory based on the available information at the time?
Yes, it was speculation, but it was speculation that fitted the known facts.
Besides, if your definition of swamp is a place of stagnant pools of liquid or gas, then surface of Venus might be said to have “swamps” of some gases and liquid metals.
The Coalition could win say a tiny majority with 48% of the two party vote. They won a 13 seat majority on 48.6% of the two party vote back in 1998.
The Coalition is trying to keep the marginals, while allowing the margins to decrease in more safer seats.
Remember Rudd is the best hope Labor will have for a while in getting back into office (Bill Shorten could become Labor leader but that is like a decade away and Lindsay Tanner probably does not have the support in the party coming from Left faction).
The only possible alternative to Rudd if Labor loses the election as Labor leader is Julia Gillard. I do feel Howard know this and if he can win this election, winning in 2010 will be easier especially if Gillard is Labor Leader.
Derek Corbett is a touch confused. What happens is that Labor run things for a while, completely stuff up the economy (ruining hundreds and thousands of lives in the process, causing suicides etc) and the Libs are then voted in to sort things out.
Pi, I was wrong, you’re not being existential, you’re dabbling in epistemology. I assure you, journalists have to write up expensive opinion polls commissioned by their papers. A brief page five item saying nothing hasn’t changed won’t do. It has to go on the frontpage with breakouts inside. And as always occurs, to fill column inches, it is easier to write about things that have changed rather than things that are the same. And they don’t engage in obscure debates about the nature of knowledge.
[Anything below 55-45 once the election is called and Howard has a chance of winning]
Isn’t this overly cautious? In theory Howard can win with 47.5 or 48, but more likely he needs at least 49 2pp to win. The way preferences are flowing that means a primary vote of 44 or 45, which is about 5% above where has been all year.
Yes Glen. A 1% swing to the government in WA that delivers 2 seats will more than offset a 17% swing in SA that loses 7 seats and a 10% swing in Qld that loses 8 seats.
But I can see that you ascribe to the SK methodology of dismissing negative results as unbelievable while acclaiming the absolute truth of the positive ones.
As Adam says there are many of us here that accept that there is a long way to go and that much can change before the election. But please don’t insult our intellegience by suggesting that the current indications suggest a government win; they don’t. Current indications suggest an electoral wipeout.
[It has to go on the frontpage with breakouts inside. And as always occurs, to fill column inches, it is easier to write about things that have changed rather than things that are the same]
Peter Hartcher’s contributions to this genre are at least a lot more balanced than Shanahan’s. Hartcher frequently explains that trends are more important than individual polls, and even quotes the pollster saying this may be the start of the trend, or just a single insignificant blimp. My guess is the editor of the paper decided to run the big headline saying Howard is on the way back.
Simon, no, I’m not saying it is not a ‘must win’ seat. I’m talking probability, not causality. I’m just saying, in the four possibilities of who wins Bennelong and who wins government, the most likely combinations are Lab-Lab and Lib-Lib. The cross-products are less likely, and that’s a view backed by the fact that the only two local polls conducted have tended to reflect the national polls published in the same period.
But Simon it is fair to say that once the election is called some of Rudd’s support will shift…Howard did start the 2004 poll behind 53-47 or 52-48 and ended up with 53-47 on election day that is making up around 4-6 points in the election campaign…if Howard is 55-45 down then it is possible for him to get to 49-51 and barely hang on anything more than 55-45 once it is called and i doubt he could claw back that even though he is good at coming from behind to win…
Preference flows in every poll have savaged the Coalition’s vote and i wonder whether this is truly representative…
In all fairness to Glen, if the Coalition can pick up a couple of seats in WA, it could offset say 2-3 seats lost in SA, 1-2 seats in Tasmania, 2-3 seats in NSW, 5 seats in Queensland, plus Solomon in NT. Giving the Coalition at least the most seats in a hung parliament or a slender majority.
Especially if the election turns out to be far closer than predicted.
I went over this in detail on another thread (except that there the hypothesis was Coalition with 75). Without going over all that again, if one side has 75, the other 73, and there are 2 Independents, the side with 75 seats will not need to convince one of the Independents to be Speaker (although it would help). All they will need to do is convince the 2 Independents that it would not be a good idea to force the country back to the polls almost immediately. I don’t think they will take much convincing.
The polls have been shocking for the Coalition in recent months, any improvement in the polls can be interpreted as a ray of hope.
As I have been saying the Coalition’s Primary vote is now around 41% in the opinion. Say at election day the Greens get 7%, Family First 4% (recent state elections in Victoria and SA have had family first polling that much or more) and Others at 4%. That would put the Coalition at around 47% of the two party vote, by election day in November the Coalition would win 50% of the two party vote, giving it a narrow majority.
I agree Tristan the Coalition if it wants to hold onto power has to pour alot of money and effort into WA it is absolutely crucial they hold their marginals and pick up 1 or 2 seats to offset loses in SA and QLD in particular…
Would a hung Parliament and a Rudd victory mean that if Turnbull got in instead of Costello that Rudd could possibly be defeated in 2010 given the ALP will be barely in power…perhaps the best thing for Rudd is a small Coalition majority say 3-4 but with its safe or fairly safe seats down to around 5% margins so that they can be snapped up in 2010…
Julia Gillard, like Lindsay Tanner, is affiliated with the Left. This has exactly the same effect on her chances of becoming leader as it does on his, namely reducing them to practically nil.
On the other hand, I can’t accept the idea that there is no other possible alternative. Nobody else may be _likely_, but that doesn’t mean nobody else is _possible_. Exactly how long before Steve Bracks became leader did that become possible?
The best thing _for Rudd_ would obviously be a Labor victory of unprecedentedly colossal proportions. I don’t expect this, but it would obviously be the best thing _for Rudd_.
Question…would Hewson havedefeated Hawke in 1993 had Hawky stayed in power???
We are looking at a Hawke vs Hewson contest in 2007 but with Howard and Rudd if the Coalition wins and they dump Rudd their only shining light they would have no talent to lift them back up again…
Could one of you lefties out there please explain to me precisely what credentials Mr. Dudd has to be PM of this country, and why you think he’d be so good at it? In your response, please refrain from making negative comments about John Howard (which are designed to obscure the issue of Dudd’s lack of experience), and point to actual concrete examples of experience and performance that prove that Dudd is up to the job. This is an analysis that needs to be done objectively. You need to list all Dudd’s actual achievements and government experience. These can then be tallied up against John Howard’s actual achievements and government experience, and a judgment can be made as to who has the best experience for the job and the most impressive achievements. Are you up to the challenge? Does Dudd have any actual achievements to his credit? You tell me …. So says Cerdic Conan.
Glen,
A minority Labor government, might actually led to such a Labor government winning by a landslide in 2009 or 2010. The Australian electoral landscape actually favors the Labor party, witness the relative easy state Labor governments have had in being re-elected and difficulty the federal coalition has had, despite a good economy.
This electoral shift started to occur back when Whitlam was PM, over the years while Labor support has declined among tradespersons, it has increased in many other social groups (including professionals, white collar workers etc, who all used to be very strongly Liberal supporting). Plus the increase in people of a Non-European background has benefited Labor as well
Richard, what do you think he would do if his choice lay between allowing Labor to hold government (on the one hand) and forcing the country back to the polls almost immediately (on the other)?