Lateline reports tomorrow’s Newspoll has Labor’s lead widening to 56-44 from 55-45 last fortnight. Similarly, Kevin Rudd is up 1 per cent as preferred leader (to 44 per cent), and John Howard down 1 per cent (to 39 per cent). Thanks as always to the commenters who passed this on. More to follow as news comes to hand.
UPDATE: News reports the primary vote too has switched 1 per cent either way, with Labor up to 48 per cent and the Coalition down to 39 per cent. Interestingly, there was an 8 per cent narrowing on the question of which party was better for handling national security, despite 49 per cent support for the government’s handling of the Haneef case.
UPDATE 2: Report by Dennis Shanahan in The Australian.
UPDATE 3: The Australian’s graphic here.
# Kina
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on 07 Aug 2007 at 7:02 pm
Didn’t I read a story a few days ago that Rudd was going to have a meeting with Beatie about the amalgamations?
Rudd tried to intervene back in May Kina, saying Beattie should/could explore less radical alternative options.
No dice>When Beattie makes up his mind about something (and holds a big pile of majority in a State where the Opposition will continue to squabble for another few years before putting up a credible alternative Govt) he is VERY hard to shift, the bugger. God love him: it will dull the swing in rural Qld abit , but he wont mind because, like most, he is convinced QLD will only have to hand over 4-5 seats to help get Labor over the line Federally. 1-2 could-have-been’s won’t faze him.
Had a feeling I might be fielding that question from you, Bill. I’m afraid I can give you no better answer than “when I’ve got time”.
Thanks for the reply William. BTW i like the new look. Keep up the great work on this site. Its a political diary!
Bill, Bob Brown is a politician who I have a lot of admiration for. He is also capable of the most shameless populism and stunting, as I suppose you have to be when you are leading a minor party. “Cutting politicians’ wages to aid the poor” has been a favourite populist stunt for about 150 years, and deserves to be ignored. Why not cut everyone’s wages and send the money to Darfur? Politicians are actually underpaid in my opinion.
I’m a bit bemused you deleted my post on wrongdoings by government ministers. Which was supposedly considered insulting.
Whereas you left this one:
[‘Grooski, Gillard is absolutely dreadful. If she ever leaves politics she can land a role in “Kath and Kim†as Kath’s older sister.’] by Steven Kaye.
However, it is your site, and I do appreciate it 🙂
Feel free to drop me an e-mail as to which particular description of a government minister was more insulting then anything said by Cerdic, Nostradamus and Steven Kaye.
For what its worth William I was happy with the original format but this is fine too; it saves my crap eyes from looking for an extension cord (reading glasses). Thank You.
Just saw John Howard on the 7.30 report and he reminded me irresistibly of Richard Nixon on television 34 years ago when he said “I am not a crook”. That was the beginning of the end of his presidency.
John Howard insisted he was not a liar.
He then went on to talk about weapons of mass destruction and children overboard.
For goodness sake, have none of his advisers told him about framing?
When Richard Nixon told viewers he was not a crook, they immediately thought he was a crook.
He looked very stressed and not at all like a confident leader.
Not at all like the John Howard of yesteryear.
ITS TIME!
Asanque, SK’s comment said something else as well, making it of just fractionally greater utility than your own (though I’ll grant you there’s not much in it). Mere lists of insults don’t really do it for me – it’s not that your particular insults were unusually unpleasant.
I totally agree wih your comments Richard. For me it was the shakiest performance I have ever seen from Howard – and yes, what was he thinking? “I am not dishonest, now let me re-visit all the lies I have told and tell you why each of them were someone else’s fault.”
I also think they should give that quivering shoulder of his its own show – he must be awaesome to play poker against – everytime he bluffs, that shoulder is the biggest “tell” I’ve ever seen!
Red Kerry looked like he was having the time of his life though.
Wow, the Young Libs are working overtime on the Courier Mail poll.
68% say they will vote for the Coalition. It’s a double landslide.
If ever you needed any proof that phone in/internet polls were useless that’s it.
It must have been hard for Kerry to keep a straight face.
John Howard simply would not deal with the perception of him being dishonest as opposed to individual cases where he claimed not to be a liar.
His own polling organisation has found the general perception is that he is a liar.
He would not explain why that was.
Surely he would have been having intense discussions with his polling people and would be well aware of the reasons for that public perception.
Oh and by the way, I like Kath and Kim too. Look at moiee Stevie…
Gillard has come across as articulate and coherent, unlike certain other frontbenchers on both sides…And she’s taken on Abbott, the biggest alleged stoner in a suit and Shrekchoices and has more often than not landed short jabs to the short and curlies of both.
The poll today has forced one thing – Howard has had to show his campaign drive far earlier than he would have liked. The Govt campaign was always going to centre on “wall to wall Labor” and the negative aspects on the economies of each state and the nation as a whole. He must score a hit with this tack. He cannot afford 2-3 weeks of haymakers – he must land one.
I said back a while that the primary vote for Labor has held up surprisingly well. If August wanes and the polls still show 48+, the government has gone. It doesn’t matter cork popping too early or the impending tirade of lefty-cockiedness, we are too far gone unless Osama has flying trains packed with explosives plowing into the Opera House.
Election 24th November. 15 weeks. 8 week election campaign. 2 weeks of APEC love-fests. 2 weeks of World Cup Rugby finals, AFL and NRL finals and other attention seeking events where everyone boos Howard handing over a trophy.
Call of the card soon methinks
Is it only me or has the Daily Telegraph started dis[laying some semblence of balanced reporting?
The “Kath and Kim” sniping at Gillard because of her accent is pure snobbery. A high proportion of voters in marginal seats have medium-to-broad Australian accents like Gillard’s, so poke fun at them at your own risk. No doubt Steven K would rather all politicians talk like Lord Downer or Sir Christopher Pyne.
John Howard on the 7.30 report tonight showed why he must be supported by any right thinking Australian. He stood up to Kerry O’Brien’s disrespectful insinuations like the real man that he is. His deft handling of his own pollster’s findings that he is regarded by Australians as a liar was poetry to behold. This performance alone will almost certainly be worth 2 points in next week’s AC Nielsen poll.
so says Sir Dick Onan
Howard really was trying too hard against Kerry O’Brien. He looked nervous and restless. He must have enormous pressure on him at the moment.
It was not the Howard of old either. He would have fought to have control over Kerry’s questions as he has done in the past – forcing Kerry to go down the paths he wants and playing dead bat when he could.
He has to gain momentum at the moment, but he is really struggling in the media of late outside of his AM radio/Question Time comfort zones
Gary, no it’s not just you.
David Penberthy has a job to do and it’s to sell the Daily Telegraph and ensure it’s highly profitable. In order to sell ads you need circulation. You don’t gain circulation by bagging Mr 62%.
If the bulk of their readers are Labor voters, why attack Labor? It doesn’t make sense.
I thought today’s issue was particularly good. It’s become more of a daily magazine than a paper. They even had an attractive page 3 Miss Universe.
I worked as a consultant for the Mirror group in the UK once.
I was introduced to the fabled Rupert Murdoch at that time with a view to working with him.
The Mirror people asked me why the Sun was outstripping the Mirror in circulation.
I opened both papers at page three and said “because the Sun has bare breasts and yours are covered”. Gross but true.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Telegraph gain circulation next time now that they are on their readers’ side.
Are the pensioners over paid Adam? Why does a country as rich as ours have a third world section of the population?
# Grooskion 07 Aug 2007 at 8:27 pm
“we are too far gone unless Osama has flying trains packed with explosives plowing into the Opera House.”
The above mentioned probability (heaven forbid) or some similar incident should not be discounted.
We all know how desperate the war criminal rodent and is and how his like minded desperadoes Bush and Blair have used terrorism to stay in power, such an incident is the only way Howard might swing the election.
Lets be frank Howard has a track record of lieing and terrorising.
Maby some of the Howard huggers posting on this sight know something about evil plans to keep him in power otherwise how can they be so confident he will be returned?
Bill, why do we have a third world section of the population? Because that’s the American way. We are currently aping America in everything.
They have working poor, we have working poor. They have a private health system, we are being pushed towards a privatised system and so on. That’s one of the key reasons why we need a change of direction.
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/onanist
For the people with an issue about Gillard, and I am one who has serious doubts about her political nous and her ability to construct a policy that is both good and political, I listened to her in parliament today and I was seriously impressed. Normally, I find her ordinary.
Pity I didn’t see our almost ex-pm on the 7.30 report. Turned it over as his voice gets to me these days.
Labor has to gain 16 seats overall. If the Prime Minister can hang on to one or two of those seats he can hang on to power. He can do this by pouring everything into a few seats (such as the hospital buyout in Braddon or the council amalgamation scare in Queensland). Labor will have to hope it can win a few seats outside of the key marginals.
Some people on this site are already popping the champagne corks in anticipation of an ALP win. I think that is not wise at this point. IF, and it’s a real if, the polls stay the way they are now until a couple of weeks before the election, I will be out buying the bubbly. But there’s many a slip ‘twixt cup and lip. Howard is a veteran campaigner, and even though all seems lost, he will hang in there to the bitter end.
I really think the electorate has basically made up it’s mind, and that even another Tampa will have little effect. But, there is still time for the ALP to shoot itself in the foot.
On Julia, I think it looks good to have a woman as deputy leader. Makes Rudd look like a leader for the 21st C and attracts the chick vote. I can only hope that the rest of the front bench doesn’t disappoint. But this is an election between Howard & Rudd. The past and the future.
Sir Dick, that’s just what we need, more encouragement for Cerdic 🙂
I ‘ve been asked by email to comment on the rise in the average enrolments per division since the last time the Reps was enlarged in 1984. Here are the figures:
1983: 74,989 voters per division
1984: 66,683 (Reps enlarged friom 125 to 148)
1987: 69,954
1990: 72,487
1993: 77,447
1996: 79,328
1998: 82,122
2001: 84,244
2004: 87,323
Since the Reps was enlarged the roll has grown from 9.8 million in 1984 to 13.1 million in 2004, or by 34%. It is now probably about 13.5 million, or about 90,000 voters per division.
Phil, the way the ALP is polling in safe Lib seats, that may be on the cards regardless
dick onan = cerdic conan = snoopy
This immature aliasing has got to end.
Rob is dead right… Howard will do anything to win, including starting conflicts, and demonizing any group that will lead to his retention of power.
There’s a looooong way to go.
Pi, I have no reason to believe the three commenters you mention are the person. You might like to consider that if you and (say) Asanque were to swap names, I for one would not notice the difference.
sir dick onan?
cerdic conan?
This is what happens to forums like this when kids play debate.
Unfortunately, Rob, word is that while Gillard is unpopular with everyone, women actually dislike her more than men. Rest assured the Government will be targeting her and Swan during the election campaign.
Sir Dick, what percentage of swinging generally politically uninterested voters would be watching the 7.30 Report and of those how many would be interested enough in sitting through an interview with Howard. My guess is very few. Just as an aside why don’t you use your other alias Cerdic?
Pi
I took Sir Dick as a parody. You’ve got to admit Sir Dick Onan is pretty funny !!
Steve, the proof of this claim is?
Steven… the government isn’t going to have any time to focus on opposition candidates. They’ve lost the initiative.
The last three months have been a litany of the ‘government targetting’, and it’s turning out that it’s recognized for what it is. Negative poll-driven scare-tactics to an electorate that has already made up its mind.
Sorry Cerdic, wrong person.
“Personally I would like to see the states abolished and their powers distributed to both local (give them urban planning for example) and federal governments, along with other organizations (like schools being ruled by councils of parents and teachers).”
Yes, Tristan Jones, yes! Exactly what I’ve been thinking for years.
Sir Dick Honan? I remember Dick Honan alright…
Perhaps now would be a great time to discuss the protection of a howard mate, while providing a subsidization to a local producer of ethanol fuel which artificially kept (and continues to keep) the price high.
Real climate-friendly stuff that…
Oh. Penny drops. Okay Pi, those two are the same person.
UPDATE: Investigation reveals that Sir Dick Onan is a parody of Cerdic, unless I have fallen victim to a super-elaborate triple-bluff.
You won’t be saying that in two years time Steven…
Bill, have you been to Jakarta or Phnom Penh? Australian pensioners live in luxury by contrast. And you, who are in paid employment, are as rich as Croesus by contrast. Are you sending 95% of your income to people in Jakarta so that you have the same income as them? I think not. Crude redistributionism (take money from A and give it to B) is a discredited 19th century notion that even serious marxists have given up on. Go and tell the aspiring home-owners in Port Noarlunga that everyone should have the same income and see what reception you get.
Might I remind you people back in 2004 a lot of people thought up until election day it would be close, however the Coalition were re-elected with an increased majority. I still believe the Coalition will win narrowly, Howard is nowhere near as disliked as Keating was in 1995 and Labor’s support is very soft, minus that soft support, Labor’s support would be around 40% in the primaries.
56% of people disagree with you Tristan… and a good portion of the other 44% do too…
Pi, your biggest mistake is in thinking the electorate has made up its mind. Matt Price was in Perth recently following Rudd around a shopping centre, and he reported that the Opposition Leader was greeted by overwhelming indifference. When he spoke to one passer-by, it took her a while to even recognise Rudd and then said she wasn’t even thinking about the election.
The majority have not made up their minds yet, and the PM has incumbency, a great team, a rabble of an Opposition and a brilliant track record on his side. Kevin Rudd has a bunch of T-shirts.
Howard looked very uncomfortable on the 7.30 Report – it’s not quite the easy ride he gets from his talkback radio mates.
Cerdic: what more can I say?
ABC and SMH reporting a second teenager not paid by WorkYouSerfBastards Commercial actor – should keep the story bubbling along for another day of the parlamentary session…and the coalition continues to bleed.