ACNielsen: 58-42

Comedy alert. What follows is a parody. It seems some readers actually thought it plausible that this was written by Chris Mitchell.

Guest post by Chris Mitchell, editor of The Australian.

Kevin Rudd’s prime ministerial ambitions lie in tatters today after yet another devastating opinion poll, this time from ACNielsen. For all the ignorant whingeing levelled at the government lately by out-of-touch ivory tower eggheads, loony left “web loggers”, civil libertarian do-gooders, bludgers and parasites from the Aboriginal industry and (SNIP – maybe I was a bit harsh on poor old Chris with this last one), the Coalition primary vote is still on 39 per cent. This is profoundly significant because, as those who really understand opinion polls can tell you, only four of the previous nine changes of government occurred after ruling party support remained steady in the last month before the election whose name began with a J.

Minor details of the poll include a Labor primary vote tapping on the door of 50 per cent, a further widening of the two-party gap from 57-43 to 58-42, growing opposition to Australian involvement in Iraq, little support for the notion that high house prices are caused by “inadequate land releases by governments”, and – this can’t be right – movements away from the Prime Minister on those all-important performance approval and preferred leader ratings.

In other news, it seems not even The Age can spell ACNielsen (I beg your pardon if this has been corrected by the time you read this).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

166 comments on “ACNielsen: 58-42”

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  4. Oh and on the back page with the heading ‘ Campaign ramps another notch’ i was there too but on a later shift

  5. Oh! Bill, I’m sorry, I assumed you were sending it to me because of the photo of Cathy Perry, who is No 3 on the ALP Senate ticket (and will probably take NSD’s seat), and I didn’t scroll down to the photo of you. I like the one you sent me before better.

  6. Blackburnseph at 5:38

    I agree with you that the results do look a bit strange. If sampling is restricted to the five mainland states and sample sizes based on the votes cast in 2004 then the results would have been approximately as follows
    NSW 500 63% 2PP = 315
    Vic 400 54% 2PP = 216
    Qld 250 48% 2PP = 120
    Total 1150 Resulting in 2PP of 651 = 56.5%

    WA 140
    SA 120

    Now 58% of 1410 is 818 so to reach this figure the 2PP figure for SA and WA combined would need to be 167/260 = 64%. Given that WA at best for Labor would be 50:50 this is clearly impossible.

  12. I can’t believe the twits who thought the faux Mitchell thingie was serious. I read it. I laughed. Does Mr. Marris have humour deficiency syndrome or what. What I find most amusing is that the GG having positioned themselves, on the whole, to be the GG, that they then don’t ‘get’ why they get as dumped upon as much as the Govt.. ROFL.

  13. Just to puncture our cosy collective outrage about the evil rightwing press for a minute, tonight’s PM report on the Hanif case was a the most grossly one-sided piece of ABC leftwing propaganda I have heard for, oh, several days. Hanif’s lawyer and John Dowd were given five minutes each to say how wicked Hanif’s detention is. Andrews and Ruddock got about 10 seconds each, but they are politicians so they don’t count as balance against the lawyers. Tony Burke also got 10 seconds, *preceded* by an ABC journalist’s comment that of course he was only supporting Hanif’s detention out of political opportunism – an opinion presented as an unrebuttable fact. I do try to defend the ABC against its critics, but what can you say when they do stuff like this? And, unlike The Australian, all this editorialising is paid for by your taxes.

  14. Bill, thanks for the photo of Cathy Perry. Can anyone tell me how to extract photos from PDFs?

    Buy AcrobatPro then:
    1. Save all images as TIFFs or
    2. Use the crop tool to copy and paste

  15. I’m looking forward to the Libs doing 3 terms in opposition because they are in denial [in de Egypt?] – look at Abbott, Hockey, spinning the economy and this Sawford rubbish from their supporters.

    Abbott doesn’t even look slightly like he believes the polls, and will therefore learn nothing from defeat. They will drift further to the Right and away from any chance of winning. They will have Dutch Auctions on how many lesbians they can burn on one pyre.

    They will regard the few seats they retain as “sacred ground” to be fought over by the factions and to hell with the traitorous remainder of what would otherwise be winnable seats. A bit like the Tory cast and crew who took until David Cameron to find someone to drop the shibboleths and kill the sacred cows before leading them back to sanity.

  16. Another option, Geoff, though one that involves spending money. I thank you though for earlier informing me that this fine product could also be used for converting PDFs to HTML, allowing tables to be cut and pasted into Excel.

  17. On the question of bias, did you see Tom Switzer’s attempt to mow down the ABC in today’s GG? Full of the usual furphies and concoctions – big Tom writing to the plebs from on high, posing as the most objective observer of politics in the land – he wishes! What gets me about these guys is that they never acknowledge their own biases as they go about lambasting everyone else’s – but I guess that’s the bliss of ignorance mixed with arrogance …

  18. Mecurius – you crack me up man!

    Colin Robinson, the Lib in Parramatta is a member of the ETU who, according to Graham Jaeske “supports John Howard’s Workchoices Legislation” This means that he should be either expelled from the ETU or resign his candidature in my mind.

    Sid Marris is a fine man, just a little to defensive that’s all. We all get like that with our workmates..why I remember when I worked with…..

    Towke was a member of the ALP which, I assume, means he must have been a member of a Union.

    Bronwyn Bishop would have had to have been a member of Actors Equity when she starred on “People’s Court” in the late 60’s.

    Alby Schultz was a member of the Butchers Union I think.

    Mike Gallacher MLC (NSW) was a Executive Member of the Police Association (I think Peter Dutton was a member of the QLD Police Association).

    The list goes on….

    Rumour has it that a growing number of Liberals are saying they have to lose to ever get the NSW Branch back to normal.

  23. I saw Kerry O’Briens attempt to nail Andrews to the wall over the Haneef fiasco on the 7.30 Report. Andrews did better sidestepping than most rugby leaguers. O’Brien got what he wanted though – a public airing of the concern that the magistrate allows him back into society and Andrews “overrules”.

    In other words, the evidence was enough for the magistrate to allow this man back into society on a very minor bail where the government decides that the evidence is enough to keep him detained.

    Coalition will have to do some fast talking for this to stay a plus. Potential to damage – especially if the guy is found not guilty on not enough evidence.

  24. Adam – good question. All I know is that he ran a security guard business, had a very brief period in the Army Reserves and lives with his girlfriend in Redfern – meet the new Liberal Party Religious Right! Changed his name earlier this year (I didn’t think those in The Shire took kindly to our Lebenese Bretheren – wasn’t there a riot or something?) and hey presto – Marie Ficarra and David Clarke embrace the new Messiah. He wasn’t in the Liberal Party for long but I can;t find anyone in the ALP who remembers him. HOWEVER, I do know that the Labor Party have budgeted to poll Cook this week and may be putting up a star “Anglo” candidate – a former Australian cricketer who lives in the area maybe??

  26. Nick, according to the ALP website, the endorsed candidate for Cook is Mark Buttigieg, which I think is a Maltese name. Is he going to withdraw in favour of a star Anglo candidate, to help keep the wogs out of Sylvania Waters?

  27. ALP is betting on Towke being unelectable given he is not from the Shire, fails the Shire pigmentation test and knocked out two or three of the Shire’s favourite sons, being Tynan, Speakman and to a lesser extent Fletcher. My snout tells me there’s a bloke who lives in the Shire, albeit the western end and just out of Cook (in Hughes) who would get the 14 percent swing before he got out of bed. You may of heard of him. Name of Waugh. Buttigieg will be retired hurt but may be called up for a later Sheffield Shield test.

  29. I understand Mark Buttigieg (who ran last election) is the endorsed ALP candidate for Cook.

    Bit hard to undo this, but I guess anything is possible with a deal.

    Would like to know how many times in the past endorsed candidates have stepped aside for celebrity parachutes.

  32. Sideline – mate, that list is long but distinguished. In recent years it happened in Kingsford Smith (Garrett), Bennelong (McKew), Macarthur (Fahey)….

    As they say in the ALP “In Mark We Trust”

  33. Adam – to my recollection this must be a first. All very weird and surreal for long term Liberal watchers. Treachery is everywhere.

  36. Possum Comitatus Says:

    July 16th, 2007 at 4:15 pm
    You’re telling me that WASNT Chris Mitchell?!?

    But but but… it sounded exactly like him and everything.

    I’m afraid the circle of trust has been broken William – I heard you were one of those online political bloggers that doesnt own Newspoll and thus doesnt understand the yooniverse.

    Thank god Sid was around to save me from my own gullibility.

    I’m canceling my subscription to this intertube site and am going to read a real journalist….. like Piers.

    POSSUM – That entry above was soooo funny I had to copy n paste it for anyone who missed it. thanks for giving me a laugh after a crappy Monday.

  38. I note that the probability (as measured by the bookie) of an ALP win has drifted up to 55% on the back of the Newspoll and ACNeilson data.

    It does seem low given the margin and stability of the polls – but as others have noted the current poll give a conditional indication of the ALP vote. The key conditions being
    1. No (effective) Wedge issue
    2. No change of leadership

    The bookie make a market on the unconditional probability – ie one of the above could happen.

    I’d be interested in people’s option of the chances of these events, but by making up come guesstamates the conditional probablity of the ALP winning pops out at around 70%.

    Which all goes to say that no news or minor news is good news for Rudd.

  41. I noted above some reporting a poll suggesting Labor on the wrong side of, what was it, 52-48 in Queensland. BUNKUM !!

    You can be assured from one who works in Swanny’s Street (Nundah:QLD) that a HUGE swing is on in QLD suburbia and even Beatties recalcitrance (refusing to step back from city council amalgamations) wont save some provincial/rual seats up here from getting a hell of a scare this time around.

  43. rual*rural, apologies (again) to the pedants.

    PS: My money says Turnbull wont back a losing horse and will save his Turnbull for PM campaign for AFTER this one- He didnt become a gazillionairre by being stupid. Costello’s race is run, he didnt even get out of the stalls did he ?

  47. Martin J Says:

    July 16th, 2007 at 1:08 pm
    In fact the way I read it in The Age the Gov’t was ahead in Qld 52-48.

    Lord D Says:

    July 16th, 2007 at 1:11 pm
    Actually, I think Qld had Labor behind 52-48. Remember that the national sample is 1412, so less than 500 from NSW and about 300 from Vic and Qld

    Does that (above) help Nick ?

  49. Strop – which seats and how will it be a scare??

    This last few days (Cook aside) I’m really starting to feel that there will be a change of Government and the longer Howards leaves it the more frustrated the electorate will get. Just can;t get excited about seeing Keating with a smile from ear to ear though.

    My money is on Julie Bishop as Leader, Turnbull as Deputy and then after a few losses Turnbull and Robb as the new Liberal Dream team.

  50. Something that we can thank the Australian for are the Nicholson animations. The current one of JWH singing “Yesterday” is a beauty.

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