Comedy alert. What follows is a parody. It seems some readers actually thought it plausible that this was written by Chris Mitchell.
Guest post by Chris Mitchell, editor of The Australian.
Kevin Rudd’s prime ministerial ambitions lie in tatters today after yet another devastating opinion poll, this time from ACNielsen. For all the ignorant whingeing levelled at the government lately by out-of-touch ivory tower eggheads, loony left “web loggers”, civil libertarian do-gooders, bludgers and parasites from the Aboriginal industry and (SNIP – maybe I was a bit harsh on poor old Chris with this last one), the Coalition primary vote is still on 39 per cent. This is profoundly significant because, as those who really understand opinion polls can tell you, only four of the previous nine changes of government occurred after ruling party support remained steady in the last month before the election whose name began with a J.
Minor details of the poll include a Labor primary vote tapping on the door of 50 per cent, a further widening of the two-party gap from 57-43 to 58-42, growing opposition to Australian involvement in Iraq, little support for the notion that high house prices are caused by “inadequate land releases by governments”, and – this can’t be right – movements away from the Prime Minister on those all-important performance approval and preferred leader ratings.
In other news, it seems not even The Age can spell ACNielsen (I beg your pardon if this has been corrected by the time you read this).
This is election year politics – things have been stable like this for some time now (with the exception of the ineffective and highly dubious NT thing [This effects me personally as I’m a big kava fan and am I highly peeved they’re banning it!]) but sooner or later somebody is going to have to make a BIG move and whatever effects it has could snowball and change this whole equation. Of course there’s no change yet: neither the coalition nor labor has brought out their really big guns yet (though I’m beginning to wonder whether the liberals have anything up their sleeves left without moving ever closer to fascism – yep Keating hinted at some truths there) and when the big guns do come out either a labor landslide or the coalition just hanging on to power could still happen. So don’t rule out Howard yet. At any rate that would give me the excuse to move to NZ that I’ve been looking for.
1. Labor’s constitution states:
The Australian Labor Party is a democratic
socialist party and has the objective of the
democratic socialisation of industry, production,
distribution and exchange, to the extent
necessary to eliminate exploitation and other
anti-social features in these fields.
Yeah, flippin right! Labor long ago gave up on, it’s once true socialist principles (and if Rudd does move to reform the part this little exert could very easily be erased). The day is nigh, somewhere between 5 and 8 years from now, when large chunks of the trade union movement see labor for what it truly is: Menzies with a sock puppet and a Smiley Face! And on that day a party which truly does represent the interests of the worker will be the recipients of a large swing, maybe gaining around 25% of the primary vote! On this day a new era in Australian politics will dawn, when minority governments become the norm (as they often are in many nations), politics is actually covered on commercial TV news and workers get the treatment they deserve!
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Note: This is only one possible outcome. Another is that things continue on as they are; only the Left becomes increasingly disillusioned with our “democracy†(or would they say Murdochracy/ Packerocracy/ ACCIocracy) and only find cold comfort in saying “see I told you so about climate change, but would you listen? No, you wouldn’t: and now we’re all stuffedâ€.
Although again this is only one possibility and as you have probably already guessed, I’m full of $h1T. Other possible scenarios for 5 – 8 years from now are also possible. Democrats landslide??? LOL! Any other ideas…
APEC should be really exciting! So many heads of state + rioting in Sydney! All just a matter of weeks before an election is called. What effect will any rioting have? what effect will any police brutality whilest stopping it have (probably not much)? What effects will some brakethrough agreement/ a brakedown in the talks have? Some have mentioned the possibility of a Sydney protocol on CC, how much could this soften anti-Howardism if the media portrays it as being significant?
And more importantly what ‘Australian clothes’ will the Asia-Pacific delegates be wearing for their photoes together? My bet is those hats with the corks around them. Thongs/ traditonal aboriginal clothes won’t be the image we will promote and i don’t think the government will try anything cutsie like clothes which demonstrate our multiculturalism (they’re phasing that idea out anyway).
Many of the parties could use APEC to springboard they’re campaign. Remember how last time George was in town the Greens had a bit of fun? Well, he could certainly play a part in their campaign, quite good timing for them, labor could leak. Do you folk agree?
All that just before the election. How can it not be reasonably significant? Personally I can’t wait to see what unfolds during it and what George, Hu and Helen (Hope she has to pronounce the word six again at some time – Chaser I love you) will have to say!
I think we are all being a little mean at poor old DS and the Oz.
He is not the only one who has been discounting Labor’s strong lead at the polls and looking for signs of its end. Most media commentators have been predicting Labor’s lead will inevitably erode based on little more reasoning than it has done so before … and I think a couple of those in the ‘alternative’ media have joined them.
Preference deals will obviously play a large part in this election and its an issue i’m keen to address in more detail at a later date. In the mean time here’s a link.
http://www.bobbrown.org.au/600_media_sub.php?deptItemID=2348
It simply points out what should be common sence (i hope) that Family First and the Greens will not swap preferences. No Dah! But it also leaves in doupt whether greens or FF will receive labor preferences. This issue is crucial.
People should stop falling for this idea that APEC will produce some type of great “breakthrough” on climate change, world trade talks, terrorism etc.
Everything that the APEC member economies agree to is not binding. That’s right, there’s no penalty for not going through with a proposal.
Ever wondered why continuing support for a successive conclusion to Doha has been in the last four APEC communiques – signed off by such free trading friends as Japan and Russia?
The same with climate change. No matter what they sign off on, the member economies don’t have to do a thing – and in the case of China, Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines and others, they won’t.
Great poll for Labor!!
Two months ago, Labor lead 48-39 on primary; that was unchanged in June. Now Labor leads 49-39. Another poll where the trend is back to Labor since June.
Gosh, isn’t Rudd in a lot of trouble now? And so is AC Neilsen, for that matter. Our latest excellent Newspoll showed Howard catching Rudd as preferred PM, but the AC Neilsen pollsters are obviously asking the wrong questions, or they would have confirmed that critically important fact.
In other news, Generallisimo El Busho confronts the Global Warmings! Click my link for the true facts, well not facts, but the hard truth that the pinko pansy leftists refuse to acknowledge!
NOTE: It apparently needs to be spelled out that this comment is not really from Dennis Shanahan.
When DS led with “”HOWARD CHECKS RUDD’S MARCH” what he in fact meant was that John was judging whether Rudd’s walking style was something he should copy.
That is all.
LOL…the art of media spin. You don’t think Howard is praying for a reversal of those numbers? (after his prayer for water of course)
As usual, when people have nothing really important to say the best they can do is call names – “out-of-touch ivory tower eggheads, loony left “web loggersâ€, civil libertarian do-gooders, bludgers and parasites from the Aboriginal industry” indeed. This from a guest editor of what is supposedly a responsible newspaper? Hah!
Molotov: thoughts on the impact that incidents at the APEC fringe festival will have on the campaign will have The Squeaker boycotting you.
APEC: little more than a photo opportunity for John Winston Howard!
I doubt anything of great substance will arise from this massive waste of time and police resources! And publicly crawling up Bush’s arse won’t do much for the rodent’s popularity.
The only good thing out of this for Howard is that Rudd won’t be invited.
Peter Hartcher: another one of the so called political experts who refuses to believe his own newspaper’s polling!
Real problem for the Coalition: their low primary vote, and the fact they are getting virtually no 2nd preferences from minor parties.
Fantastic analysis, Mr Mitchell 🙂
Love your work William.
DS and the OZ can expect this kind of response in spades. See Peter at Mumble.
Great leader Mr B! You’ll get your 6-figure salary at the GG in no time if you can keep it up!
Right, that’s it. It’s bad enough we have to put up with these kind of headlines at the Oz, now they’re writing pieces for the pollbludger. I want to complain, or is the room for insults? 🙂
Brecht had it right. Abbot should take note; it’s time to dissolve the people and elect another.
Howard’s job approval rating remains close to 50% (49 in this poll).
Either a strong plurality of voters still feel warmly to the old bugger, even as they prepare to vote against him, or incumbency remains a huge benefit for the person at the helm.
Any other explanations?
Graeme,
You can think someone is doing OK job but still perceive and prefer a better alternative.
Interesting that Stirton was quoted differently in The Age and the SMH.
In the Age ALP support has been “rock solid” for months.
In the SMH, ALP “peaked in March”, trended down at 1% per month until June and has now steadied.
Tsk, tsk, William, now you are just being provocative. And it is totally justified. Perhaps an opinion piece by a certain John Winston Howard next?
As you were.
Don’t you love the headlines? “Voters blame Howard for falling house prices”. The ALP previously spinned this as the “housing affordability crisis” which driving voters in droves away from the government. I guess Howard is damned either way.
I said a few times over at OzPolitics that we’d be able to tell a better story about what the polls were doing by mid-July. Well, now we can.
Labor started the year leading by about 56-44. Then surged to around 59-41 in March, and ebbed back a bit to 58-42 at budget time. IMHO, a careful reading of the polls (and a recognition that that 52-35 Newspoll was probably outside the MoE) suggests around a 2-point ‘budget bounce’ in the second half of May, back to 56-44.
And since the start of June? Nuffink. Nix. Nada. Polls going absolutely nowhere. There’s more of a case (but not much of one) for an increase in Labor’s vote than a decline over that period. A flat line would be my description. The Coalition is stuck at around 44% and not showing a hint of any kind of traction.
I have argued a) Howard will probably see off Rudd, b) Costello would be a better bet than Howard even at this late date. I’m starting to have doubts about a), and that is strengthening my belief in b). I reckon they’ve still got a fortnight to roll the PM if they’re smart. They probably aren’t.
And this ’39’ sequence is quite fascinating… 4/5 Newspolls and 3/3 ACN’s since mid-May. Surely there must be a 38 or a 40 at some point?
“I think we are all being a little mean at poor old DS and the Oz.
He is not the only one who has been discounting Labor’s strong lead at the polls and looking for signs of its end. ”
If they just wanted to say that their intuition is that the ALP lead is soft, that it will fall before the election etc etc then that is fair enough. That is opinion clearly labelled as such.
What is risible is the attempts to spin the polls as showing some kind of *objective* support for such notions by inventing such ideas as ‘preferred pm 12 months out’ as an important predictor, indeed more important than ‘preferred pm 6 months out’, or the existence of a non-observed lag between increased preferred PM and increased voting intentions.
Molotov, you’ve been drinking too many cocktails at four in the morning!
This was a totally expected poll after the events of the past week.
It will reinforce that view that JWH is a lame duck PM, in spite of his dawn walks. This snowball is gathering more and more snow as it rolls down the hill towards the election. The momentum has probably become impossible to stop.
Now there will be open dissent in Liberal ranks, unless they are all on a suicide mission.
Peter the Pusillanimous should put on his cloak of courage and take up his sword of determination and confront the cause of the Coalition’s impending downfall.
Peter, this is your last chance to become PM mate. If you don’t strike now you can look forward to an early retirement with a tax free income of about $140,000 a year.
Do you really want to be PM or were you just pretending?
Do you have what it takes to become PM?
It’s now or never.
Is there anyone else in Coalition ranks who will take up the challenge?
Or are you all so cowed?
Malcolm, what about you? Do you have the courage to step forward when your party needs you? Or do you prefer to remain Opposition Leader for ten years?
Is there nobody?
Brecht had it right. Abbot should take note; it’s time to dissolve the people and elect another.
Possible Beobachter front-page editorial on election day: “You’re all f*cking crazy!!!”
Richard Jones, I have been arguing the Costello ‘roll’ for a while, but I gave up when he stated for a second time last month he wouldn’t be challenging. Whether he’s keeping his powder dry, or just hasn’t got the ticker, I don’t know. If Howard goes before the election it will have to be by stepping down.
How likely is that? I can’t see him stepping down, although his standard line is he’ll stay as long as the party needs him. If the backbenchers start getting jumpy (more jumpy), we could see pressure mount for an early retirement for JWH. If I was a backbencher I think I’d be pushing for that and not just sitting and waiting for electoral oblivion.
Tony Abbott’s comment reflects the problem of group think extended over a long enough period – you believe your own propaganda as defining the way the world works.
Governments need to have a licensed jester to remind them that reality is not in their control and will one day get up and mug them.
In regards to Coalition regime change, let’s consider the psychology of the people who will decide whether this happens or not; the backbench…
Currently we would have most backbenchers scared witless by the alarming uniformity of the polls, which all spell a Coalition train wreck. All those perks, super and prospects of career glory are evaporating before their eyes.
So it’s natural that some of them would start thinking about possible alternatives to turn the situation around.
But these are people that really do believe that John Howard really is a magician, who really can pull rabbits out of hats. But nagging doubts are starting to eat away at them as John is looking more and more like Bullwinkle (“that trick never works”) rather than Houdini.
But the obvious alternative is even scarier; an untried Peter Costello who is disliked by large swathes of the electorate. Plus these people really are conservative (even if the leadership is radical, albeit in a clever, subtle way).
So here we have some major internal tension amongst the backbenchers between their long held perception of how their world works (Howard in control, Coalition reigning supreme) and the cold poll reality smacking them in the face.
Psychological theory would call this a classic case of cognitive dissonance. And the theory of cognitive dissonance says that this is fertile ground to trigger new beliefs and new behaviours.
So I would say at the very least we will shortly see some more Coalition footsoldiers breaking the line and calling for leadership change, as the contagion of panic starts to take hold and spread.
Even though it will be a close election (I still think that), I am beginning to think of possibly allowing myself to perhaps wonder if maybe there’s a chance that Australians might finally toss out the most incompetent government of recent memory.
Federally that is … sorry NSW and TAS, you’re stuck with your state govs for a while yet…
I agree Rob. No challenge from Costello. That particular horse bolted a long time ago. Tuckey will continue to stir the pot, but not much else.
On another front… $10 says Bush does a no-show at APEC. He has a lot on his plate in September back home.
When do they start referring to it as “the deeply unpopular Howard government” and the “deeply unpopular Prime Minister”. I want a little less “statesman under seige” from the media and a little more “political hack with no friends”
At what point does the thinking in the Coalition bunker start to shift from ‘what do we have to do to win this?’ to ‘what do we have to do to avoid a blow-out?’.
This, I would humbly suggest, is an important factor someone should start to think about.
A small loss could see a coalition government back on the government benches in but a few years – a blow out could see it in the cheap seats for a decade or more…
So, what’s the thinking out there?
There are enough polls now confirming Rudd’s dominance for the Coalition footsoldiers to call for a leadership change.
Today’s “war” meeting called by Howard will allow them to air their grievances.
They may come to an agreement that Howard should step down.
I can’t understand why Costello doesn’t make a move now. What more incentive does he need?
There’s time for the dust to settle in the next four months.
Costello or Turnbull or whoever could reshuffle out the old faces, bring in some talented women – where are they – and reduce the average age of Cabinet by five to ten years, as Gordon Brown has done.
That’s absolutely the only thing that will save the jobs of some of those backbenchers.
Even if the new PM didn’t actually win, at least he would save some of his colleagues and be able to provide a decent and strong opposition.
It’s not in anyone’s interests to have a mere dispirited rump in opposition.
What a leadership change would also do would be to grab the headlines for a week or two as the media examine the new leader’s potential and also cover the host of new faces brought in.
John Howard should gracefully resign either for spurious health reasons or in a magnanimous gesture to save some of his colleagues from political oblivion. And he should do is soon.
There are enough polls now confirming Rudd’s dominance for the Coalition footsoldiers to call for a leadership change.
Today’s “war” meeting called by Howard will allow them to air their grievances.
They may come to an agreement that Howard should step down.
I can’t understand why Costello doesn’t make a move now. What more incentive does he need?
There’s time for the dust to settle in the next four months.
Costello or Turnbull or whoever could reshuffle out the old faces, bring in some talented women – where are they – and reduce the average age of Cabinet by five to ten years, as Gordon Brown has done.
That’s absolutely the only thing that will save the jobs of some of those backbenchers.
Even if the new PM didn’t actually win, at least he would save some of his colleagues and be able to provide a decent and strong opposition.
It’s not in anyone’s interests to have a mere dispirited rump in opposition.
What a leadership change would also do would be to grab the headlines for a week or two as the media examine the new leader’s potential and also cover the host of new faces brought in.
John Howard should gracefully resign either for spurious health reasons or in a magnanimous gesture to save some of his colleagues from political oblivion. And he should do it soon.
Sorry about that. I changed the penultimate word from is to it.
Howard’s not deeply unpopular, that’s the curious thing. At best it seems up to 50% think he’s doing a reasonable job, but are minded to retire him in a few months. Costello on the contrary is deeply unpopular: if he wasn’t I daresay the nervous nellies on the govt benches would have turned to him months ago.
As for Stirton’s comment that the polls are ‘rock solid’ I wonder if he was meaning ‘unshakeable in their consistency’? ‘Rock solid’ suggests immovable – I’d like to see any Neilsen data that showed Labor’s polling to be araldited.
Richard Jones said:
“Malcolm, what about you? Do you have the courage to step forward when your party needs you? Or do you prefer to remain Opposition Leader for ten years?”
If there is one thing Malcolm is *not*, it is a loser. I think it’s a pretty safe bet that right now he is having conversations behind closed doors trying to figure out if there is a way out of this mess, lead by him of course. Costello doesn’t have the cojones to do it, but Malcolm certainly does. His biggest problem is that many of the Libs don’t fully trust him and still see JWH as the saviour who lead the Coalition out of the wilderness in 1996 – there are many who simply wouldn’t turn against Howard.
I think it would be incredibly interesting if Malcolm does make a go – but before he does he will want to try and ensure he has a fairly stable support base behind him. One thing is for sure though, Malcolm will not be hanging out in Opposition for years on end – he will jump ship if it looks like his dreams of PM are going nowhere in the next 6 years. If he did roll Howard, I wouldn’t discount his chances – Malcolm is very savvy and I think he would end up appealing to a lot of punters. His core problem is the Bronwyn Bishops of the party. I think they would rather face a slaughter than give up on the Come-back Kid from Bennelong.
It tickles me pink that these Howard zealots must be driving Malcolm crazy right now! 😀
Sideline Eye said:
“But the obvious alternative is even scarier; an untried Peter Costello who is disliked by large swathes of the electorate.”
Costello is never going to be leader – it just ain’t gonna happen. Abbott, Turnbull or Nelson will make the push. Nelson was looking like a safe bet (vocal support from Howard supporters like Bronwyn Bishop), but that seems to have evaporated over the past two months.
Fine analysis Mr Mitchell. 🙂
My only concern is that, by mistake our ‘inept’ opposion may yet win if the electorate continues to ‘sleepwalk’ towards the election. 🙁
Possibly our good government could be recalled to simplify the voting system. Maybe by reducing the electorate to one? And I would be honoured to nominate you Mr Mitchell for that most important role. I know you haven’t made up your mind as to whom you will support 😉 but I’m certain you would make the right decision when the time comes to re-elect and return our PM to Kirribili House in time for the cricket season and the Sydney Test.
AC Nielsen conducted its December 2006 poll on the weekend prior to the ALP leadership change, and in anticipation of Rudd taking over also asked how people would vote if Rudd became leader. The vote with Kim Beazley remaining was, ALP 41 Coalition 39, and with Rudd as leader was ALP 48 Coalition 39.
This July poll shows ALP 49 Coalition 39, what more is there to say.
What is more interesting is the comment (not shown in the tables) in The Age this morning of the state by state beakdown – NSW 63 – 37, Vic 54 – 46, QLD 52 – 48, though the latter is qualified by the statement that it is a small sample.
The question this raises is – How are state by state analyses done if there are small samples in the smaller states? and normally one wouldn’t have considered QLD to be small. How strict are the quotas on age, sex, location etc.??
In fact the way I read it in The Age the Gov’t was ahead in Qld 52-48.
Actually, I think Qld had Labor behind 52-48. Remember that the national sample is 1412, so less than 500 from NSW and about 300 from Vic and Qld.
John Howard seems to looking like Graham Arnold at present
“Costello is never going to be leader – it just ain’t gonna happen. Abbott, Turnbull or Nelson will make the push. ”
Abbot, Turnbull or Nelson are mad if they do. (And the rest of the party is mad if Abbott succeeds 🙂
If they do lose in November, the next leader of the Liberal Party will never be PM without creating history, or going the triple bypass route. There hasn’t been a one-term government since the Depression, and no federal leader of the Liberal Party (or its predecessors since Fusion) has ever lead the party to the next election after leading the party to a defeat.
If (i) Sampling was conducted in all states and territories and (ii) sample sizes in each state and territory were in proportion to votes cast in the 2004 election then the sample sizes would have been approx NSW 464, Vic 363, Qld 265, WA 132, SA 113, Tas 38, ACT
Sorry, pressed Submit by accident before completing.
The QLD sample of 265 has margin of error of 6% at 95% level.