More Newspoll

Yesterday came Newspoll’s quarterly geographic and demographic analysis, featuring state-by-state breakdowns and such; today comes marginal seat figures from The Australian. Analysis galore at Possum’s Pollytics and Oz Politics.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

116 comments on “More Newspoll”

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  1. It’s early in the morning and I have just read “Labor Keeps Whopping lead” in The Age.

    What I find surprising is pollsters running around saying “can’t work why labor support is so strong” and not asking questions about trust and morality.

    At times this government has acted amorally; maybe too many Australians are now so seriously offended they won’t vote for them under any circumstance.

    If this is the case then recent efforts by the Liberals (Budgets handout, Aboriginal land grab etc.) would have solidified the Labor vote not eroded it, further “union leaders under the bed” etc. just isn’t going to work as an election campaign theme.

    The next twelve months are going to be interesting, will the liberal party be able to move back to the center after the election or is it too strongly capture by right wingers.

    If the liberal party folds, what will replace it? Interesting times.

  2. NSW is astronomically high, QLD is much lower than other polls, but this has been put down to a small sample size in that state.

  3. My theory is to why the ALP appear to be headed for a landslide is that this is a long delayed response.

    Remember how quickly Rudd became Preferred PM ? Latham also performed very well, very quickly, as soon as he took the job. He quickly became the most popular Opp Leader in history in Australian history IIRC, not quite topping Howard as Preferred PM, but close.

    Why do Opposition Leaders get so popular, so quickly, in the Howard era? Basically because Australians have long been sick of Howard. It’s just that it’s taken this long for the ALP’s factional system to produce a decent alternative.


  4. This is election year politics – things have been stable like this for some time now (with the exception of the ineffective and highly dubious NT thing [This effects me personally as I’m a big kava fan and am I highly peeved they’re banning it!]) but sooner or later somebody is going to have to make a BIG move and whatever effects it has could snowball and change this whole equation. Of course there’s no change yet: neither the coalition nor labor has brought out their really big guns yet (though I’m beginning to wonder whether the liberals have anything up their sleeves left without moving ever closer to fascism – yep Keating hinted at some truths there) and when the big guns do come out either a labor landslide or the coalition just hanging on to power could still happen. So don’t rule out Howard yet. At any rate that would give me the excuse to move to NZ that I’ve been looking for.

  5. Wierd, wierd numbers in that AC Nielsen poll breakdown (48-52 Lib’s way in OLD? 62-38 ALP in NSW 70-30 ALP 18-24 year olds? 47-53 Libs 55+?). Seems like a whole lot of rubbish to me, though the headline (and preferences as in 2004) numbers in aggregate is at about the same level its been bouncing around recently, so overall it seems about right (which says so much about the sort of numbers Rudd’s been getting)

    Wouldn’t Dennis be upset that last weeks preferred PM rating did not in fact presage a polling increase for the government, either then or now.

    We hate to say we told you so but….

    On another note, a mere 21% blaming interest rates for the price of houses makes one wonder about the efficacy of Labor’s line on this. That said, the 8% number who blame state governments is even worse for the Coalition.

    Iraq numbers are (in a headline sense) a nightmare for the PM, as always.

  6. Labor’s constitution states:

    The Australian Labor Party is a democratic
    socialist party and has the objective of the
    democratic socialisation of industry, production,
    distribution and exchange, to the extent
    necessary to eliminate exploitation and other
    anti-social features in these fields.

    Yeah, flippin right! Labor long ago gave up on, it’s once true socialist principles (and if Rudd does move to reform the part this little exert could very easily be erased). The day is nigh, somewhere between 5 and 8 years from now, when large chunks of the trade union movement see labor for what it truly is: Menzies with a sock puppet and a Smiley Face! And on that day a party which truly does represent the interests of the worker will be the recipients of a large swing, maybe gaining around 25% of the primary vote! On this day a new era in Australian politics will dawn, when minority governments become the norm (as they often are in many nations), politics is actually covered on commercial TV news and workers get the treatment they deserve!


    Note: This is only one possible outcome. Another is that things continue on as they are; only the Left becomes increasingly disillusioned with our “democracy” (or would they say Murdochracy/ Packerocracy/ ACCIocracy) and only find cold comfort in saying “see I told you so about climate change, but would you listen? No, you wouldn’t: and now we’re all stuffed”.

    Although again this is only one possibility and as you have probably already guessed, I’m full of $h1T. Other possible scenarios for 5 – 8 years from now are also possible. Democrats landslide??? LOL! Any other ideas…

  7. Remember people, that when you break down a single poll into separate parts – whether by state or by demographics or whatever – the sample size of each component will be small and the margin of error therefore huge.

    That’s why Newspoll presents its breakdowns not from one poll but from three months worth of polling.

    Incidentally, I can’t find the referred to state-by-state breakdown from today’s Nielsen; only the city/rural and age breakdowns linked from The Age’s front page.

  8. APEC should be really exciting! So many heads of state + rioting in Sydney! All just a matter of weeks before an election is called. What effect will any rioting have? what effect will any police brutality whilest stopping it have (probably not much)? What effects will some brakethrough agreement/ a brakedown in the talks have? Some have mentioned the possibility of a Sydney protocol on CC, how much could this soften anti-Howardism if the media portrays it as being significant?

    And more importantly what ‘Australian clothes’ will the Asia-Pacific delegates be wearing for their photoes together? My bet is those hats with the corks around them. Thongs/ traditonal aboriginal clothes won’t be the image we will promote and i don’t think the government will try anything cutsie like clothes which demonstrate our multiculturalism (they’re phasing that idea out anyway).

    Many of the parties could use APEC to springboard they’re campaign. Remember how last time George was in town the Greens had a bit of fun? Well, he could certainly play a part in their campaign, quite good timing for them, labor could leak. Do you folk agree?

    All that just before the election. How can it not be reasonably significant? Personally I can’t wait to see what unfolds during it and what George, Hu and Helen (Hope she has to pronounce the word six again at some time – Chaser I love you) will have to say!

  9. “With all respect A-C, I cannot believe that people would ever argue that losing an election would bring greater long term success. Silly people were saying that in relation to the ALP in the lead up to the 1998 election”

    Nah, this silly person reckons it about the 1990 election 🙂

    Peacock as PM would have been much less odious than Howard, who would have never got a second shot at the leadership. And Paul Keating would have had 6 years rather than 6 months to broaden his policy focus and gone on to lead a successful multi-term government 🙂

  10. “Yes, the ALP is in such pressing need of reform – it has only won 20-something state elections in a row and has only leading the federal polls by a mile all year.”

    And furthermore, which of the ALP’s failures over the last 15 years or so have really been failures.

    There was no surprise in losing 96 – the surprise was winning 93.
    Nor in 98, almost noone thought they could win – but nearly did.

    So the ALP’s ‘terrible’ record federally in recent times really comes down to its failure in 2004, with a question mark over 2001, balancing against the Liberal’s real failure in 1993.

  11. Martin B is right, but the significance of Howard winning in 2001 and 2004 is that it was with increased majorities. Although having a personal dislike for Howard, he is arguably the most successful PM. He is now the second longest serving PM after Menzies, and without the benefit of the DLP. It just goes to show that picking on helpless refugees will always be a vote winner.

  12. “the significance of Howard winning in 2001 and 2004 is that it was with increased majorities”

    2001 was only *barely* an increased majority. 🙂

    2004 was certainly a failure, for this reason amongst others. IMO 2001 can plausibly be considered as either a failure by the ALP, or as an election with unusual circumstances.

    “he is arguably the most successful PM”

    What is unusual about Howard is that he has been more successful in the second half of his tenure than in the first.

  13. Adam Says:
    July 15th, 2007 at 10:23 pm

    Bill Weller in one of his rants above said

    Oh Adan i just love it when you have a go its makes me feel that i am hitting a raw nerve. The only thing i have seen changed in the gay culture is that i don’t get bashed or threatened standing up for Gays or Aboriginals like i did 25 years ago. I find it strange the ALP doesn’t give Gays full rights as heterosexuals but when a party is moving to the right i suppose it would be going to far to make EVERYONE equal!

  14. Oh well here goes and you’ll both hate me but Adam and Bill you are both right, Labor is essentially to thank for the fantastic progress we as a whole society have made on getting rid of stupid and unfair discrimation against homosexuals. That the Liberals have wedged labor on the word ‘marriage’ and that some rights still just aren’t equal for all people is a disgrace and a great shame to the Labor party.

    In fact the pathetic and either homophobic or political cowardice of the whole ‘marriage’ word position is difficult to understand, and I have tried in more appropriate forums to have it debated but without any true luck. If ever there was a position lacking substance the marriage word thing is it.

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