None of this actually has anything to do with the budget, but you know how it is …
• The ALP’s national executive, which was empowered by the recent national conference to select candidates for 25 New South Wales seats, announced the candidates for 10 seats on Saturday. In the western Sydney seat of Blaxland, sitting member Michael Hatton has been dumped in favour of another member of the Right, Transurban executive and former Bob Carr staffer Jason Claire. Hatton has held the seat since replacing Paul Keating at a by-election held in the wake of the 1996 election defeat. Others who had designs on Blaxland included constitutional expert George Williams, Bankstown mayor Tania Mihailuk and Electrical Trades Union chief Bernie Riordan. The Sydney Morning Herald reported that Mihailuk had been “likely” to win, possibly explaining Hatton’s decision to lodge disciplinary charges against her for “failing to properly manage her branch affairs”.
• The national executive has also chosen Penrith mayor David Bradbury (said by Brad Norington of The Australian to have “historical links” to the Transport Workers Union) to make his third successive run against Jackie Kelly in Lindsay. Joe Hildebrand of the Daily Telegraph reports that Bradbury’s win has greatly displeased the National Union of Workers, which had thrown its weight behind 23-year-old school teacher May Hayek. Others to get the nod in Coalition-held seats included human rights lawyer George Newhouse, who will run against Malcolm Turnbull in Wentworth (where the redistribution has cut Turnbull’s margin from 5.6 per cent to 2.6 per cent); former ministerial staffer Greg Holland, who will make his second run against Danna Vale in the long-lost seat of Hughes (which fell in 1996, and now has a post-redistribution margin of 8.8 per cent); Belinda Neal, former Senator and wife of state Industrial Relations Minister John Della Bosca, who will attempt to unseat Jim Lloyd in Robertson (margin now 6.9 per cent); and ambulance officer Tim Arneman, who suffered a 68-vote defeat in Port Stephens at the state election, and now faces Bob Baldwin in Paterson (6.8 per cent).
• Two incumbents have emerged from the national executive process unscathed: Julia Irwin in Fowler and Jennie George in Throsby. A highly fancied bid by former national party president Warren Mundine to unseat Irwin fell foul of the party’s affirmative action targets, after a number of defeats by female candidates in other seats. The irony of an indigenous candidate being squeezed out on affirmative action grounds was widely noted. The Australian Jewish News reports that both Rudd’s office and Melbourne Ports MP Michael Danby told the paper to keep quiet about the challenge to Irwin, a vocal critic of Israel, the former saying that “the best way to ensure her survival is for you guys to cover it”. According to Kerry-Anne Walsh of the Sun-Herald, Jennie George’s endorsement followed a “faction deal made between the Left and Right” that would “raise eyebrows”.
• Mark Davis of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that affirmative action supporters in the New South Wales ALP’s Left have revolted against the factional leadership’s decision to deliver the number two Senate position to Doug Cameron, former national secretary of the Australian Manufacturing Workers’ Union. Seven women have nominated against Cameron for the factional ballot, including management consultant and 2003 state election candidate Imogen Wareing. The first and third positions on the ticket are reserved for the Right; it is anticipated that Ursula Stephens will be demoted from her number one position in 2001 to number three, making way for state party secretary Mark Arbib.
• A factional row has erupted in the New South Wales Liberal Party after its nomination review panel rejected country vice-president Scott McDonald’s Senate preselection nomination. The move safeguarded Left faction member Marise Payne’s third position on the Coalition ticket, behind Helen Coonan and the Nationals’ John Williams (who replaces the retiring Sandy Macdonald). Background to the dispute was provided by Imre Salusinszky of The Australian:
As part of its general reassertion of authority following the years in exile that began under former premier Nick Greiner, the Right has had its eye on the spot occupied by Marise Payne, who hails from the Left faction. Desperate to avoid predictably bad headlines in the Fairfax newspapers and on the ABC about right-wing “extremists” controlling the party, Howard told Heffernan to work the numbers for Payne. Heffernan went at the task the only way he knows: like a bull at a gate. At a fiery meeting last month, he tried to curtail the preselection process entirely and moved that the state executive simply re-endorse the sitting team. When this failed, Heffernan took the fight to the party’s nominations review committee, of which he is one of three members. The committee threw out the nomination of the Right’s challenger to Payne, state vice-president Scott McDonald. Designed to vet candidates on the grounds of character or ethics, or because their candidacy could damage the party, the committee operates as a “black box” and does not give reasons for its decisions. But it is understood the issue was a conflict of interest, McDonald having already spoken against Heffernan’s motion on the executive. The move has upset the NSW Right like nothing else done in the name of its Dear Leader. Meanwhile, the Left, for once, finds itself supporting Howard and Heffernan.
• Controversial Right faction powerbroker Alex Hawke has thrown his hat in the ring to contest Liberal preselection for Mitchell, where incumbent Alan Cadman proposes to run again despite a universal perception he is past his use-by date. Also in the running are Australian Hotels Association deputy chief executive officer David Elliot and state party vice-president Nick Campbell, described by Irfan Yusuf at Crikey as “the NSW Right’s main number-cruncher”.
• Western Australian Liberal Senator Ian Campbell, who lost his cabinet position in March on the flimsy basis that he had been at a meeting with Brian Burke, has announced he will quit politics in the coming weeks. The party moved quickly to fill the vacancy with Mathias Cormann, who last week defeated incumbent Ross Lightfoot to take the number three position on the ticket for this year’s election. Since the position filled by Cormann does not expire until 2011, the number three position is again up for grabs. According to Robert Taylor of The West Australian, “party insiders said it made sense to shift Mr Cormann into the Senate immediately and search for a strong number three given that Mr Cormann’s dominant presence in the last preselection discouraged many people from nominating”. Names of potential aspirants have yet to surface in the media; however, Campbell last month dismissed speculation that he might be about to resign as “wishful thinking” from those hoping to fill a vacancy, naming Cormann and Nick Bruining, a financial journalist who ran unsuccessfully for the state upper house in 2001.
• The ABC reports a field of nine candidates will seek preselection for the Liberals’ Tasmanian Senate ticket, which will be held “next month in Launceston”. They include two incumbents, John Watson and Richard Colbeck (who were number two and number three in 2001), along with “former state MHA David Fry, former Liberal staffer David Bushby, former political staffer Giulia Jones and Don Morris, the chief of staff to Senate Preisdent Paul Calvert”. The number one candidate from 2001, Senate President Paul Calvert, is retiring.
• In the seat of Newcastle, Labor member Sharon Grierson will face a challenge from David March, president of the party’s Merewether West branch, at a preselection vote to be held on May 26.
• In South Australia, Labor has announced candidates for the Liberal-held seats of Barker (Karen Lock), Grey (Karin Bolton) and Mayo (Mary Brewerton).
HI Bill
Regards your comments about church support: I am a baptist who would probably lean towards Pentecostal and I am completely dumbfounded by Family First. I believe my political education has informed me of the problems with FF. It is disappointing they dont come out and say that they are supported by Pentecostal Churches. In the nd though it does not make that big of deal who supports a politcal party provided people decide to get involved in the politcal process
bill weller – “Thats the thing Rudd is starting to show a timidness towards IR and Big Business that is worrying the union movement. But as ive been saying its all been going that way and the YR@W + unions will be caught in this anti worker push.” I’m not so sure about that Bill. Rudd is on a winner as it is and I’m sure he knows this. The papers and their journalists (how many are on AWA’s do you think?) would love to believe he is wavering but I’m yet to be convinced.
Gary Bruce I hope for the workers movement that Rudd and co do live up to their original IR promises
Me too Bill.
I agree with Hugo – a lot of the Left seem stuck in a weird time warp and think we can go back to Keating – or even Whitlam! – it took 18 years for British Labour to realise that the world had changed and that the bulk of Thatcherism was here to stay – i hope the ALP doesn’t make the same mistake.
# AdamVIC Says:
May 13th, 2007 at 3:49 pm
HI Bill
Regards your comments about church support: I am a baptist who would probably lean towards Pentecostal and I am completely dumbfounded by Family First. I believe my political education has informed me of the problems with FF. It is disappointing they dont come out and say that they are supported by Pentecostal Churches. In the nd though it does not make that big of deal who supports a politcal party provided people decide to get involved in the politcal process
True and I hope to meet the Kingston FF candidate soon in a honest discussion
Hugo, Peter If standing up for workers rights and to see them prosper at the expense of a small part of big business profits is a throw back of the seventies then i am proud of that label. To many times in history workers / community / oppressed have suffered at the expense of corporate profits. Health, Environment worldwide is suffering everyday in the race for the mighty dollar. A win on IR is a small price for the global giants to loose, a loss for the worker will be hugely devastating!
Peter Stephens Says:
it took 18 years for British Labour to realise that the world had changed and that the bulk of Thatcherism was here to stay – i hope the ALP doesn’t make the same mistake.
Why was Thatcherism was here to stay ? Who decides that the majority of people are worse of? Why are the true UK Labour voters not happy with new Labour ( re DW news) Is the withdrawl of these working class votes the reason UK Labour is doing so bad? Why has the New Labour logo been taken of their website?
To Gary Bruce – in response to your post of yesterday in response to my post
– the media has a huge ability to influence elections , the Tele may have been campaigning against the Iemma government, if any any government deserved to lose an election it was that one, but, Debnam could not provide a viable alternative, voters work very much on the ‘better the devil you know’ principle, at least with Morris, the NSW voter knew what horrors to expect for the next 4 years.
– There are preselections and there is sleaze, and the Kelly Hoare affair is sleaze, bullying, victimisation, etc. People may not be interested and influenced, but it would not be surprising if the people of Newcastle are taking an interest.
There are preselections and there is sleaze, and the Kelly Hoare affair is sleaze, bullying, victimisation, etc. People may not be interested and influenced, but it would not be surprising if the people of Newcastle are taking an interest.
That is an understatement. What is happening to Hoare is devastating to people that believe in fair play. If i was in her position i would not go down without a fight!
There has been discussion about two of the former members for Werriwa:
– Gough Whitlam, it always astounds me that anybody could sing the praises of a man who couldn’t manage his caucus, ministry or the country out of wet paper bag. The ideas were good, but the delivery and the management were a disaster. I can understand the exuberance and optimism after 23 years of conservative government but .. if it wasn’t for his being given martyr status he would have sunk into the oblivion that he deserved for having presided over 3 years of crisis driven government (much of their own making!). To be fair, managing an an economy in the context of the 1973 oil shock was not easy anywhere but letting Jim Cairns have his hands on both Junie and the tiller … !!! And before anybody starts, why have Labor governments treated the Whitlam era as the way NOT to do it.
– Mark Latham (and I have not read the book) but frankly did the country need to be plunged into 3 years of continual crisis if a Latham government had eventuated .. it may have been interesting … but, some of us have families to feed and house and so… Quite frankly, in my opinion, Mark Latham was the first major party candidate since Dr Evatt in his declining years who was not fit to run the country. Whatever one may have thought of some of the others, it could not be said about them.
Chris Curtis/ Bill
As I said to Bill, I could care less where a candidate goes to church or not on a Sunday morning and I look strictly at policy and approach. No one in this forum has managed to raise a single issue raised in Senate where FFP has taken what I would call “extreme” or “radical” positions.
I remain impressed with them, with Steve Fielding, as I have also been impressed with Mr Kevin Rudd and the leadership under John Howard. The latter two men, I feel, are two of the best at their respective roles in politics since I can remember.
If either party wins power, and the Greens/FFP hold the balance of power, then we will have a very stable time politically. Indeed, this balance is crucial if we have “wall to wall labour”, to avoid the same level of legislative exploitation that some have accused the coalition.
The Democrats in the late 70’s, early 80’s played an effective role as a filter to legislation, particularly since the Dems at that stage were committed to trying as far as possible to support the government of the day, ALP or Libs.
On the objective evidence we have seen from Steven Fielding in Hansard for the Senate, I see the same function being renewed in the Senate in 2007. I think this will be good for Australia.
Stating again, FFP is left of centre on immigration, Industrial Relations, refugee detention, sale of state assets, environment and multiculturalism. It is right of centre on majority economic policy, education, law and order, international treaties and small business. No one here has shown yet, using any real evidence, how this is dangerous, extreme or even remotely religious??!!
I like to give parties the benefit of the doubt and after following them,and other minor parties since the last federal election, I see no basis for such negative attitudes to this party.
I think most people would agree that the harrassment smear against Hoare was a bit much, but there seems to be an underlying feeling here that she is some sort of innocent victim to the political process. The woman is/ was a professional politician for God’s sake, not some poor put-upon Florence Nightingale of the Backbench. This is the same woman who threatned an unfair dismissal case if she was disendorsed, and then complained that she wouldn’t be able to afford the upkeep on her mortgage! So she’s clearly not averse to making politics with the situation herself. She’s a big girl, after all, and bloggers might be better advised to keep their sympathy for someone a bit more derserving.
Circa 2020 Bill Weller retains Kingston as a ultra safe Green seat. ALP in disarray as the Green/ Union alliance is now the new major party. News of Garrett jumping ship to join but needs a safe seat. I know lets kick Bill out at preselection for Garrett. Strangely i cannot see that happening ( apart from a Green / something alliance.
The meandering of Kevin Rudd on IR and higher education in the last week has left me confused … where does HE stand? Does he have a commitment to Labor principle or he is being so seemingly conservative that he is trying to wedge the libs by landing in the centre right – knowing that the party have to follow? If Labor should lose, what will his next move be, detach the unions altogether? and end up in some sort of social democratic centre – the political reincarnation of Don Chipp or Ian McPhee? or is Labor principle to be jettisoned for his overwhelming ambition? and Bill, given the various flip flops why aren’t the Greens trying to drive the wedge in from the left?
Bill, you might kicked out if you crack onto a lady comcar driver!!!
Bill – if the Greens ever reach the stage where they hold “ultra-safe” lower house seats, they would be well on the way to being a minstream party and so have jettisoned a great many of the policies that you hold so dear in the process. Consequently, I’d imagine that Garrett (who by then would be pushing 70) would be parachuted into Kingston and you would be running as an independent.
FF left of centre on environment, you have got to be kidding!! Consider all the bleating from Steve Fielding on petrol prices, just so all of those white bread types can drive the 4WD from the McMansion to the mega church on a Sunday. Steve Fielding should be trying to get public transport to places like Rowville so that the FF types can get the train to work!!
blackburnpseph Says: given the various flip flops why aren’t the Greens trying to drive the wedge in from the left?
I am. thats all i can say
Sorry but Thatcher has just logged on and im proud to say that my name sakes 11year legacy is hear to stay and was instrumental in the long term success of tony blair and has driven conservative ideals now for well ova 25 years and indeed the modern british economy, but more to the point on Rudd- if he changes the IR policy can u just imagine the shit the media would give him and Gillard. And Bill i sincerely respect your input but if tasmanian politics has taught us 1 thing its never let the greens into Govt. re Michael Field 1989-1992 and Tony Rundle 1996-98, not to mention it destroying Ray Grooms legacy-no matter how insignificant it was. Any thoughts?
THATCHER- only that both sides of that coalition cried foul. ALP history shows that they went back on their promises
Good point Bill, though 1989 election was a blessing for australian democracy because that sob Gray was given the a**! Just a general question-is there an opposition in Tasmania? Because ever since March last year i have heard absolutely nothing from the state Libs! With the way Lennon is running his Govt. u would have thoght Hodgman would have done a little bit better than hes doing at the moment. Or am i being a little bit too harsh?
Do conservative actually have ideals? I thought they got in the way of making money and so best left to wet lefties.
Hugo if you think Maggie got in the way of money you obvously didnt live in Britain between 1979-1990! The abuse i use to cop at the pub ova my last name drove me nuts and it never made sense because ive always been a traditional Labour voter who only voted for Thatcher because of the pathetic alternative at the time! Ive always voted Labor here mainly because the Vic Libs are worse than uk labour in the 80s! Im gunning for Rudd this year cause like Maggie in 90 its time-Any sympathisers?
Did anybody watch the insiders this morning? Unfortunately i did and was just appalled at the anti-rudd bias of that program. Since ive moved to Aus ive detested absolutely everything Piers Akermen has written and the fact that Paul Kelly after all these years is paraded in front of us every sunday morning thinking hes still relevant to political debates is just sad. Maybe he should still be married to Ros Kelly-she could beat his uselless head in with her whiteboard!
Sorry, Thatcher, I was referring to conservatives not having any ideals, rather than being in the way of making money. A cheap shot, to be sure, but then we lefties never have any money, so they’re the only shots I have!
Glad to see you’re on the Rudd bandwagon.
To all those who think an anti-nuclear scare campaign will work well against the Coalition in 2007 just look to the 2004 result in Solomon, when Labor campaigned against a nuclear dump in the NT and the swing went…. to the Coalition.
Nuclear power stations may not be popular, but they won’t automatically cost the Liberals votes.
Thatcher, I don’t think Paul Kelly was ever married to Ros Kelly, but then we have a surfeit of “Paul Kelly”s in Oz (the other main examples being the singer-songwriter and the AFL footballer), so maybe you’ve got them confused.
SD – not sure you can extrapolate from Solomon. The tropics are another country, after all.
Maxine leads Howard 52-48 on 2PP.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,21722353-421,00.html
This is the peak of Labor support – she’s done for.
Come on Mr Speaker – Labor is ahead in a seat that they have never won (indeed, there have only ever been two members) and it is a seat held by the PRIME MINISTER, for Gorsake!. The rodent has been member since 1974 and has built up a strong personal vote in that time, so the fact that McKew is ahead at this stage can only be a plus for Labor. Her candidacy will do exactly what it was meant to do – make Howard campaign in his own seat, which will (hopefully) distract him from his national campaigning.
Besides, this is first poll of any sort since the Budget and Labor’s IR kerfuffle (which seems a long time ago now), and Labor is demonstrably ahead in the PM’s own seat. This suggests that the coming round of national polls will show little movement.
Yes sorry Hugo, I’m being cynical again. I expected a much bigger lead.
However some more cynicism:
Distract him from national campaigning ? The Libs might spend $400K instead of $300K defending the seat. In return Labor loses the talented Maxine McKew in an inevitable defeat. What a waste.
They should have put her in Eden-Monaro. She could walk around in an akubra and tell everyone how she’s always loved the area… hmm maybe not..
Paul Kelly (of the Oz) was married to Ros Whiteboard – she is now (and has been for some time) married to David Morgan – CEO of Westpac
After watching “Bastard Boys” i think Daniel Fredricksen should run in Charlton – much better looking than the Greg Combet he’s playing 🙂
(just a joke comrades)
hehehhe
wow that brought back memories
front page of courier mail looks interesting…
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,21723822-952,00.html
http://media01.couriermail.com.au/multimedia/2007/05/070513_poll/table.doc
the numbers
Depending on the results of this year’s election, either Ron Boswell (1983), Grant Chapman (1987) or John Faulkner (1989).
Bill
the clue is dovi, it is David in another language, and I used to vote Labor under Keating and Carr (that was stupid). I have been in Australia over 30 years, so I do not think it is relevant
Yes the poll results are all over the news stands in Brisbane.
They say “Howard can’t buy a vote”.
Labor down 1% to 57%.. about what I expected. (I predicted 56 somewhere above)
Mr Speaker – Very bad news for the PM in Bennelong, IMHO.
If you are a politician like Howard, you have 100 per cent recognition. Yet Maxine is beating him already with a recognition factor a lot less than that.
Given who is involved, it would be reasonable to assume that Maxine’s campaign is being carefully paced. Her big push is yet to come, presumably.
One of the great belly laughs in Bennelong could be the impact of the Japan Defence Treaty. The idea will be as popular with the Koreans and Chinese as a pork chop in Medina.
Obvious that Howard did not know this, when taking up Dick Cheney’s proposal to help contain China.
Hugo
Labor’s policy is anti-worker because it artificially increase the wages paid to workers, and higher than the market will support, therefore employers will move their employee to area (Asia/India) where there are cheaper labour, ie Mitsubishi plants in Adelaide, call center to India.
So the people who has a job is better off, but it increase the chance for them to lose their job. Again Mitsubishi plants in Adelaide.
Also unfair dismissal laws means employers will prefer to employ casual and part time staff, because they can dismiss these easier (or not give them any hours). This will be bad for people who are unemployed (they will only get part time roles). That is why full time employment in waiter/waitressing increased significantly after workchoice, while part time roles decreased.
But Labor probably do not need to worry about these people, they are likely to vote Labor, even if it mean they will lose their job or not get a job – that is irony!!!!
Another thing is that you will only create more jobs, if employer wants to employ people, to alienate all employers will be bad for workers. If all employer go out and hire 10 more workers, market forces will ensure every employee is better off, since employer will have to attract employee, that is the economic theory anyway. But would also explans why wages had increase in Australia over the last 10 years, despite India and asian wages
Dovif your assertions are just that – idle speculation. Basically Labor’s policy is to take bits of WorkChoices (eg Federal control of IR) and ditch the rest, and when you and others assert that the sky will fall in if it is implemented is plainly deluded.
There is NO clear evidence that a reasonable minimum wage will destroy jobs – Howard operated under the old system for 10 years and unemployment dropped consistently during that time.
Labor’s unfair dismissal propsal seems more than reasonable – small business has 12 months to dismiss someone if they are not working out, and if employers can’t work out whether someone is worth keeping on after that time then they shouldn’t be employing anybody.
Today’s Galaxy poll suggests that people have made up their minds already and that a big spending Budget isn’t going to change much. We keep hearing that the last two weeks have the been the government’s best fortnight all year and yet the polls haven’t changed one iota.
The Bennelong poll is about what I would have expected. I agree that if McKew is polling 52% at this point in time (when the polls are also predicting pretty much every Cabinet minister in the lower house losing their seats) then she is unlikely to be able to pull off a win.
In the end the Liberals are more committed to Bennelong than Labor, and they will probably win, but I’d say Rudd and McKew know that all along. What it means is that the Libs have to throw their resources into that seat. With Liberals having to fight to protect Bennelong they won’t have the resources to take back Parramatta, or protect Macquarie properly.
And if Howard loses government, McKew would be the favourite to win the likely by-election and move to the frontbench within the government’s first term, and if not become a senior advisor in the new government outside Parliament.
Well the Galaxy polls are bad for me. I placed my first ever bets with a commercial betting company on McKew winning Bennelong, hedged with one having the Libs winning the election. Not because I particularly thought these were likely, but because the odds at the time seemed pretty out of whack.
The only combination that could see me lose is if Labor wins the election but Howard holds Bennelong – I thought the chance of that was low enough that the bets were worth taking. I still think it, but I agree that this is what the Galaxy polls suggest taken together. I guess it will discourage any further interest in gambling.
Sorry Ben I must be thick or something but could you explain the rationale behind your statement – “I agree that if McKew is polling 52% at this point in time (when the polls are also predicting pretty much every Cabinet minister in the lower house losing their seats) then she is unlikely to be able to pull off a win.”
Well, Labor is doing very, very well. So if she is polling 52% when they are doing very, very well, if they dip back to reasonable levels, then that would push her down into the 40s, thus losing.
Of course, she could buck the trend, but I doubt it.
And if Labor wins with a 2PP in the high 50s, I doubt Howard losing his seat would be a big story, more the “nearly the entire Liberal Party losing their seats, including Abbott, Costello, and Turnbull” would be more significant. It’d be something similar to the 1993 catastrophe the Progressive Conservatives suffered in Canada, where they fell from 160 seats to 2.
Hugo on the contrary, there are many studies that says minimum wage hurt the people on minimum wage. And there have been alot of studies saying minimum wage hurts the unemployed and makes it harder for them to find jobs
I suggest you go back to Economics text books and take a look of supply and demand. Price floors and how to increase demand
If Mitsurbushi says that they can make a car in Malaysia and ship it to Australia, and it would be cheaper than making a car in Australia, that is sufficient prove that price floors hurts workers.
Gary Bruce, I think it has something to do with Labor being so far ahead in the polls right now that, as convential wisdom has it, that the polls must tighten come election day. Even the most optimistic Laborite must admit that a Labor victory on 57% of the 2PP is exceptionally unlikely. So if McKew is only squeaking through on 52% today, with Labor 57% nationwide, then that should be quite a bit less come election day.
I think the Galaxy poll is seriously bad news for the Govt. If Newspoll tonight confirms that the post-budget swing has been negligible, then if I were Howard, I’d start panicking.
Gary Bruce:
I concur with Pseph, StephenL and Ben for all the reasons they stated above – the Bennelong poll points to a Howard victory (in his seat).
However Hugo and Blackjack seem to disagree.
Maxine Mckew herself said she’d need a miracle to win, but that might be a tactical statement.