The place to be

Better news for Labor in Victoria with a McNair Ingenuity poll carried in today’s Herald Sun, although it’s from a low sample of 406 voters. It has Labor leading 46 to 40 per cent on the primary vote and 55 to 45 on two-party preferred, marking a 2.9 per cent swing to Labor from the 2001 election. Herald Sun reporter Michael Harvey reports that such a swing "would see the Coalition lose the seats of Deakin (1.6 per cent), McEwen (2.2), Gippsland (2.6) and La Trobe (3.7)". Mathematics experts will no doubt be puzzled by the latter of these judgements – Harvey is presumably factoring in the personal vote of retiring Liberal member Bob Charles, which is fair enough. By contrast Thursday’s Newspoll geographic analysis survey showed an improvement in the Coalition’s performance in Victoria during July and August, with the Coalition gaining four points directly at Labor’s expense to lead 44 to 41 per cent on the primary vote while still trailing 47-53 on two-party preferred. The results from their earlier survey, covering April to June, were almost identical to those from today’s McNair poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.