Laboring in Queensland

The Poll Bludger is feeling rather pleased with his prediction of two days ago in which readers were told to expect "a series of (opinion poll) results that confound pundits by showing a shift to the Coalition". Even so, the scale of the bad news confronting Labor in today’s Newspoll survey of Queensland marginals comes as a surprise. The poll covered 1008 respondents from Herbert, Hinkler, Moreton, Longman, Bowman, Petrie and Dickson – the exact same seven seats nominated as Labor’s Queensland gains in the federal election guide. Support for the Coalition across the seven seats was recorded at 46 per cent against 38 for Labor, the Coalition leading 52-48 on two-party preferred. That represents a 1 per cent swing from 2001, which would not be enough to win Labor any of the aforementioned seats.

Newspoll also issued a geographic and demographic analysis survey yesterday covering its polls in July and August, departing from the usual procedure of releasing such results at the end of each quarter. The survey showed that the Coalition’s performance had improved in the past two months in Victoria and Western Australia, but slipped in New South Wales and Queensland (until recently, it appears). Collectively the results require the questioning of some existing wisdom, while fortifying the Poll Bludger in his long-held conviction that the Coalition will most likely get over the line. With a review of electorate assessments pending, Mark Latham should enjoy his Election Projection lead while it lasts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.