The Poll Bludger

8.50. Clare Martin has given her victory speech. This seems like a good place to wrap up the Poll Bludger’s coverage for the evening. I had a fair chunk of my meagre reputation riding on this result and I don’t mind telling you that I’m feeling pretty damn vindicated (someone on ABC Radio just said "nobody was predicting a landslide tonight" – where you been darlin’?). There were as always wrong calls in individual seats (though fewer than I could reasonably have feared given the nature of Northern Territory elections), but I got the big things right. My only clanger was calling Goyder for independent Mary Walshe – it will either be won by the CLP or Labor. The only other seat I was definitely wrong about was Brennan, but I’m hardly Robinson Crusoe in this regard. Labor are ahead in Drysdale and Port Darwin, which I hadn’t picked, and have won Daly and MacDonnell, which I did. The CLP looks likely to hold Greatorex, which I tipped for Labor. The picture in Braitling is still confused – I had tipped independent Loraine Braham to hold, but it could go either way. The ABC projects a final outcome of 18-5-2, compared with my prediction of 16-7-2.

8.20. Richard Lim apparently confident of retaining Greatorex for the CLP. The NTEC now has him leading Labor’s Fran Kilgariff 1484 to 1402.

8.16. ABC computer has switched Port Darwin from Labor ahead to Labor gain, but they’re only in front by 19 votes.

8.07. Denis Burke giving his concession of defeat speech.

8.06. Antony Green just said the CLP’s lead in Drysdale was in single figures, so he obviously knows something the NTEC doesn’t – they only have 1346 votes counted. The ABC’s figures have 2417 counted and in fact have Labor slightly ahead.

7.59. Haven’t heard anything on Braitling for a bit, but the NTEC does in fact have Loraine Braham ahead by five votes – 1470 to 1465.

7.49. CLP looking safe in Araluen. The CLP’s John Elferink currently conceding defeat in MacDonnell on ABC Radio.

7.45. It doesn’t look like any late miracles are going to save Denis Burke in Brennan. The NTEC has Labor’s Jason Burke leading 1397 votes to 1225 on 2PP.

7.43. Labor are narrowly ahead in Goyder, which the Poll Bludger (among many others) tipped as a win for independent candidate Mary Walshe, who has polled only 14 per cent. The NTEC has Labor leading 832 votes to 824 on 2PP.

7.35. CLP now ahead in Drysdale, according to the ABC computer. It has Greatorex down as CLP retain, but a 2PP count at the NTEC has the CLP leading narrowly, 1484 to 1402.

7.31. Sure enough, the ABC website now says "Independent ahead" in Braitling. However, Braham said there were a surprising number of Labor votes leaking to the CLP and the ABC computer might not be accommodating this.

7.29. Loraine Braham not sounding too confident about holding Braitling. The ABC figures seem to be lagging behind the NTEC on this one – the latter has the CLP on 39.6 per cent, Braham on 34.0 per cent and Labor on 22.2 per cent. I personally would have thought this gave Braham a pretty fair chance. MacDonnell appears to be solidifying for Labor.

7.17. First mention of Blain, the other Palmerston seat along with Brennan where Denis Burke is headed for defeat. There is a swing to Labor of over 10 per cent but Terry Mills should probably hold. The ABC Radio commentators say he is likely to emerge as leader for want of any alternative.

7.14. A rush of new figures from Greatorex suggests the CLP should hold.

7.12. Close in Greatorex, but Labor’s Fran Kilgariff not sounding hugely confident.

7.09. Only 15.8 per cent counted, but clearly Mary Walshe has flopped in Goyder. She’s on 9.3 per cent. Labor leads the primary vote count 40.9 per cent to 36.5 per cent but the ABC computer expects that the CLP will hold on preferences.

7.06. The ABC computer has Greatorex down as a Labor gain, but Antony Green is not so sure because there are no figures from the Sadadeen booth. Warren Snowdon just said on the ABC that indications from the Sadadeen booth are the the CLP is in fact just ahead.

7.03. ABC Television chamber graphic has Labor with 19 seats. Both the leader and deputy leader (Richard Lim in Greatorex) apparently heading for defeat and the CLP may lose their status as the opposition.

6.59. First indications coming in from Greatorex, and already the ABC has it down as a gain for Labor’s Fran Kilgariff.

6.56. Told you so – the ABC has already done 180 degree flip on MacDonnell, now down as a Labor gain. After an early scare, the CLP are drawing ahead in Katherine.

6.55. The ABC is calling Brennan for Labor. Lineball in Drysale. Better news for the CLP in MacDonnell, which unlike the aforementioned I did call for Labor, which the ABC has down as CLP retain. But it could be that the mobile booths will do particularly well for Labor because of their candidate, former ATSIC commissioner Alison Anderson.

6.49. Labor expecting to win Brennan from Denis Burke!! The other independent-held seat of Nelson (member Gerry Wood), a natural CLP seat, only has "independent ahead" on the ABC site, but on the raw figures it looks like Wood will do it easily with Labor preferences. Labor apparently drawing further ahead in Port Darwin.

6.45. Labor ahead in Drysdale! You have just witnessed the Poll Bludger’s first ever exclamation mark.

6.43. All swings in Darwin are at least 10 per cent. Denis Burke’s seat of Brennan is down as CLP retain at the ABC, but he’s only 2.3 per cent ahead on 2PP.

6.40. Good job I changed my call on Araluen, because it’s the only Labor versus CLP contest so far where the CLP has a swing, this being a correction from a result that was heavily influenced by an independent last time.

6.35. It’s already clear Labor has won. Antony Green’s calculation on the ABC site has Daly as a "Labor gain". Very close in Port Darwin, but Labor marginally ahead. Labor taking it right up to the CLP in Katherine, which they hold with a margin of 15.3 per cent.

6.24. ABC Radio reports early 10 per cent swing to Labor in Daly, which would narrowly win them the seat. Not many votes for independent Dale Seaniger, but he will apparently do better in the rural booths. An 8.8 per cent swing to Labor in Clare Martin’s seat of Fannie Bay. A booth in Wanguri shows a 14 per cent swing to Labor member Paul Henderson; a 10 per cent swing to Labor in Arafura. Independent member Loraine Braham reportedly suffering a swing in Braitling, the only good bit of news for the CLP so far.

6:20. Still early, but all concerned on ABC Radio are expressing surprise at the size and velocity of the swings to Labor. Shouldn’t crow too early, but it serves them right for not listening to me.

6:14. It’s already clear that my big idea about a maintaining my own statistics is not going to work. I’ll just pop in from time to time to give you a general idea of what’s happening, though if you’re interested you’ll probably know anyway. Early figures suggest a very big across-the-board swing for Labor, but it’s still too early to read much into them.

As Charles Richardson noted in Crikey last week, "as far as election watching goes, a Territory election is a good one for beginners because everything happens in miniature: smaller seats than anywhere else (4,000-5,000 voters in each), fewer of them (25), fewer candidates (only two or three in most seats), and less than three weeks of campaigning". The Poll Bludger is taking advantage of this state of affairs to apply a new degree of sophistication to his election night results watching, having mapped out a spreadsheet of booth results to calculate swings as the results come in without having to take Antony Green’s word for it (I am assuming that the NT Electoral Commission will be so good as to provide booth results on their website). Tonight this site will provide a running real-time commentary on these results on this site as quickly as his touch-typing skills (85wpm) and FTP upload speed will allow.

Innumerable Bexes and five good-lies-down have elapsed since the Poll Bludger boldly amended his Northern Territory election predictions to award Labor a faintly ridiculous 17 seats out of 25. Nevertheless, he is sticking with them against his better judgement even though they no doubt flatter Labor to the tune of at least one or two seats. It needs to be stressed that when it comes to the Northern Territory, predictions like these are to be taken with a grain of salt regardless of who makes them. The list of reasons why these contests are hard to call is as long as your arm – the tiny size of the electorates, and the premium this places on local candidate visibility; the lack of polling, published or otherwise; high immigration and emigration rates between elections; and the modest scale of local media coverage. News Limited’s croc-tastic top end flagship the Northern Territory News is studiously careful to avoid boring its readers with too much politics, so much so that election tragics are likely to derive more joy from the humble weekly Alice Springs News. In this context, online forums such as Inside Politics and the one operated by the ABC’s website have taken on a new significance for those of us who just can’t get enough. As sources of information go these need to be treated with great caution, especially since they seem to be magnets for rabid CLP partisans.

The Poll Bludger has so far managed to avoid saying anything about either party’s policies, but this can be put off no longer. The centrepiece of the campaign has been the CLP’s promise to connect Darwin to the national electricity grid via a 3000 kilometre transmission line, with the $1.3 billion tab to be picked up by gentleman admirers in either the private sector or Canberra. The parallels with the Liberals’ Western Australian election promise to build a canal of similar length from the Kimberley to Perth hardly need reiterating, and the plan has received similarly short shrift from informed observers such as John Quiggin and Ken Parish. The overwhelmingly negative media response suggests that the policy will fail to achieve its objective of winning the CLP seats in Darwin’s much-touted northern suburbs, while also alienating voters outside Darwin who do not stand to gain. However, internet chat suggests Labor has a similar difficulty with its Darwin waterfront development, which has apparently fed into concerns in Alice Springs that the party is "Darwin-centric" while also failing to excite locals.

The other point of interest has been Labor’s newly acquired concern about "habitual drunks" – one of innumerable top end code words for "aborigines" – which led Clare Martin to announce a policy that would order repeat offenders to seek treatment or face imprisonment. Remarkably, this prompted Denis Burke to accuse Labor of chasing the "redneck white vote", sentiments heretofore unheard of from a CLP leader. Politically speaking, one suspects Martin has the better end of an argument that has helped neutralise resentment over Labor’s abolition of mandatory sentencing, and that Labor will accordingly enjoy a boost in Darwin and Alice Springs.

The Poll Bludger’s Northern Territory election guide remains your one-stop shop for electorate-level factoids, which will be embellished with the following nuggets when he gets time:

Goyder (Country Liberal 14.8%): Two independent candidates have added interest to this contest, with most fancying the chances of Litchfield shire president Mary Walshe. The CLP had long been trembling in fear at the prospect of a Walshe candidacy, although she may be handicapped by the circumstances of her entry. The Territory Times reported that Walshe was in "a frantic state of indecision" about whether to run when they spoke to her two hours before the nomination deadline, which she ended up meeting "just in time". She also entered the campaign with the burden of a recent 17 per cent rates hike at Litchfield. The other independent is Andrew Blackadder, chairperson of Freds Pass Management Board, whom the Territory Times reports was "knocked back for CLP preselection". The Northern Territory News reported on June 12 that internal polling results had the CLP expecting to lose to either Walshe or Blackadder. The paper seemed unduly excited to learn that a property owned by the CLP candidate, Keith Phasey, had been raided by police seeking information on the deaths of four Western Australian cancer patients who had been treated by his wife. Well-informed Inside Politics commenter "Bonnie" says "the Walshe family is the biggest name in Humpty Doo" and that "without the rates stigma, Walshe would win it by a street".

Daly (Country Liberal 9.5%): Dale Seaniger is widely being spoken of as one of the election’s most fancied independent candidates, along with the aforementioned Walshe and Blackadder. Seaniger’s job titles (variously "Thamarrurr Regional Council deputy chief executive" and "deputy council clerk at Wadeye") don’t look too exciting to me, but what would I know. The retirement of CLP member Tim Baldwin means the electorate is more precarious for the CLP than the margin makes it appear, given the enormous advantages of incumbency in the territory’s micro-electorates.

Greatorex (Country Liberal 9.0%): Opinion is sharply divided over the prospects for Labor’s high-profile candidate, Alice Springs mayor Fran Kilgariff, in her bid to unseat the CLP’s Richard Lim. Alex Nelson of the Alice Springs News reckons "no mayor of any town in the Northern Territory who has run for office in the Legislative Assembly has succeeded in translating their support at council level to the next tier of government", with the conspicuous exception of the current independent member for Nelson, Gerry Wood (Mary Walshe’s predecessor as Litchfield shire president). The Centralian Advocate reports that Kilgariff is running ads that make no mention of her being the Labor candidate.

Millner (Labor 1.2%): The Poll Bludger has variously heard it said that Paul Mitchell, the CLP member here until his defeat in 2001, is running as an independent to deliver preferences to the CLP’s Paul Mossman (by Kevin Parish), or because the CLP had lost confidence in Mossman (by the Northern Territory News). The latter theory is consistent with reports of a widespread view in the CLP that the party erred in preselecting its candidates too early, and with a Northern Territory News item on June 12 saying the party had "given up" on Mossman on the basis of internal polling, but still "hoped" Mitchell might win. The same day’s edition also carried this little item:

Two 14-year-old boys, Simeon Lawler and Tim O’Hagen, make a few dollars after school by delivering advertising material. They were letterbox dropping a brochure for Labor MLA Matthew Bonson when they noticed a man following them and removing the brochures. They confronted him – and, lo and behold, it was Paul. He told the lads the brochures had fallen out of the letterbox and he was just putting them back. They didn’t believe him.

Mossman has had a fair bit to say at the Inside Politics forum (posting as "PaulM"), or at least he did until recently. Labor spooks and local news outlets fell upon the site when it emerged he had said a 13-year-old American girl denied an abortion "should have just kept her legs closed", and that there were "plenty in line waiting their chances" to replace Denis Burke as party leader. The Northern Territory News reported on June 4 that nine people were enrolled at Mitchell’s residence, including his adult children, his sister-in-law and her partner, and a son’s girlfriend.

UPDATE (17/6/2005): The above assertion that the two online forums "seem to be magnets for rabid CLP partisans" has sparked this frank exchange of views at Inside Politics. In an unrelated development, I have decided that I should in fact withdraw a seat from Labor on the election guide, eventually settling for Araluen. That puts the tally at Labor 16, CLP six and independents three.

As the Northern Territory election loomed, the Poll Bludger’s gut feeling was that Clare Martin and Labor were on course for a landslide win that would rewrite the top end’s electoral rule book. After probing deeper I was surprised to discover that this view had little currency among those more closely familiar with Territory politics than myself, which led me to back down on some of my bolder seat predictions. I did so without conviction – as I commented at Troppo Armadillo after Ken Parish poked fun at me for calling Araluen for Labor, "I suspect that those who have watched Labor struggle over nine Northern Territory elections might prove a little slow to acclimatise to the entirely new circumstances now that Labor heads a stable government with a popular leader, and faces a divided rabble of an opposition. I would not be amazed if the CLP emerged with as few as six seats". One reason to doubt the orthodox view was the lack of polling in the Territory, without which even close observers are driving blind. But today Newspoll has filled the gap with a comprehensive survey of Darwin-area voters, the results of which have emboldened me to trust my original instincts. The survey covers an impressive sample of 1200 of the 54,000 voters in the 12 electorates surveyed and gives Labor a stunning 57-43 lead on two-party preferred, pointing to a swing of 9.5 per cent. Labor leads on the primary vote by 52 per cent to 40 per cent, compared with 43.8 per cent and 48.3 per cent in 2001.

The poll suggests that participants in various online forums who have been debating which northern suburbs seats might deliver victory to the CLP have been barking up the wrong tree entirely. The real question as far as Darwin is concerned is whether the CLP can hold back the tide in Port Darwin, which it holds with a margin of 7.3 per cent. The Poll Bludger’s assessment is that the incumbency factor will just barely save sitting member Sue Carter. There is little reason to doubt that there will also be a swing on to Labor in Alice Springs, despite their barren track record there in past territory elections (although they hold their own in local booths federally). Despite the exceptional circumstances that reduced the CLP margin to 2.0 per cent in 2001, such a swing should deliver Araluen to Labor. The margin of 9.0 per cent in the neighbouring electorate of Greatorex would normally make it a bridge too far, but Labor’s star candidate Fran Kilgariff could very well make up the difference. Further afield, the steady stream of bad publicity surrounding Labor’s candidate for MacDonnell, Alison Anderson, had me doubting the consensus view that her links with the local area would deliver her the seat, but Newspoll has emboldened me to keep this as a Labor gain. I have also decided to move the other CLP-held outback seat of Daly into the Labor column, where the Labor tide should combine with the departure of a popular sitting member to overcome the existing 9.5 per cent CLP margin.

A surge in the Labor primary vote might spell trouble for Loraine Braham, independent member for the Alice Springs seat of Braitling, who will need to stay ahead of Labor to override the CLP with their preferences. She managed this in 2001 with a fairly comfortable primary vote advantage of 34.0 per cent to 22.2 per cent, but the 10 per cent plus hike in the Labor vote projected by Newspoll might close the gap and return the seat to the CLP. I am nevertheless predicting that she will hang on. The other independent-held seat is Nelson in outer Darwin, where member Gerry Wood will have little trouble overcoming Labor, whom he outpolled 41.4 per cent to 9.7 per cent in 2001. Although the redistribution has slightly weakened his position, a likely poor show from the CLP should leave him in the clear. I expect that Braham and Wood will be joined on the cross-benches by Mary Walshe, independent candidate for Goyder, whose profile as Litchfield shire president should combine with the messy departure of outgoing member Peter Maley to deprive the CLP of another formerly safe seat.

With the election guide thus amended, the Poll Bludger officially offers the following crazy-brave prediction: 17 seats for Labor, three for independents and five lonely survivors from the CLP wipeout. Bryan at Palmer’s Oz Politics concurs, tipping Labor to win between 15 and 17 seats.

The Poll Bludger has not had much to say during the first week of campaign action for the June 18 Northern Territory election, and has little to add to this thorough review of the issues by Ken Parish at Troppo Armadillo. Also worth noting is the tracking of Centrebet odds at Palmer’s Oz Politics – it appears some serious money has gone Labor’s way in the last day or two. The Northern Territory Electoral Commission has published its list of candidates and the Poll Bludger’s election guide has been updated accordingly.

The biggest news to emerge is that Litchfield shire president Mary Walshe, who had earlier been approached by both Labor and the CLP, is listed as an independent candidate for Goyder. Despite its healthy CLP margin, the seat was already looking interesting given the circumstances surrounding the departure of sitting member Peter Maley, who was dumped first from the front bench and then from the parliamentary party. When speculation emerged in January that Walshe was planning to nominate, an unidentified CLP member told the Northern Territory News that Walshe would win the seat "comfortably". The News later reported on March 25 that she had decided not to run, but she has evidently had a change of heart.

Psephologist Charles Richardson has this to say in today’s Crikey newsletter:

As far as election watching goes, a Territory election is a good one for beginners because everything happens in miniature: smaller seats than anywhere else (4,000-5,000 voters in each), fewer of them (25), fewer candidates (only two or three in most seats), and less than three weeks of campaigning. But if the Northern Territory is a more exotic place, the fundamental truth is that it’s the same as the rest of the country: most elections are won or lost in the mortgage belt. It may be a land of wide open spaces, but wide open spaces don’t return many MPs: two-thirds of the seats are in suburban Darwin and Alice Springs. Labor’s safest seats are in the outback, but it won in 2001 because it swept the seven seats in Darwin’s northern suburbs. Those seven seats will be the battleground again, and it looks to be a pretty one-sided affair. Although some are very marginal – Millner the closest on 1.2% – all but one of the Labor members are contesting their first election as incumbents, a powerful advantage in such small electorates. Add the electorate’s indulgence towards first-term governments, and the disarray in the Country Liberal Party opposition, and it’s hard to see Labor being seriously troubled.

Centrebet confirms this view: its latest odds have Labor almost unbackable at 9-2 on, with the CLP about 11-4 against. With such favourable conditions, the Martin government will be aiming to increase its one-seat majority. (There are also two independents, but Labor would not like to have to rely on them.) It has hopes of finally breaking through in Alice Springs (either Araluen or Greatorex), and of picking off one of the two remaining rural CLP seats, MacDonnell and Daly. It must also be given a rough chance in Goyder, on the southern fringe of metropolitan Darwin, where the CLP lost its sitting member in controversial circumstances.

For his part, the Poll Bludger has shifted Goyder from "Country Liberal retain" to "Independent gain". Anyone else wishing to put their public reputation on the line can do so on this thread at the Inside Politics site. Among the contributors is Antony Green, who reiterates the following comment he posted at Palmer’s Oz Politics:

If you look at the 2004 Federal election results, with the exception of four booths, the federal results in Darwin and Palmerston booths are very similar to those recorded at the 2001 Territory election. In other words, a repeat of the 2004 Federal election results would go close to leaving the status quo at the Territory election. Solomon is CLP held because of the CLP majority in Palmerston, not because the CLP polled well in the northern suburbs. The four booths that differred were the two in Fannie Bay and the two in Wanguri. What was different there? They were the only two seats with sitting Labor MPs at the 2001 Territory election, which meant Labor’s vote was much higher in those four booths in 2001 than at the 2004 Federal poll. Labor’s Federal vote in 2004 was high enough to hold all its northern suburbs seats at the Territory election. That is, unless the sitting members are hopeless and actually manage to depress Labor’s underlying vote. I’ll leave it for people who live in these electorates to reflect on the merits and demerits of the sitting MPs.

The Northern Territory is the only Australian jurisdiction that the Poll Bludger has never graced with his presence, and it must be conceded that the election guide predictions are a little wanting for first-hand local knowledge. The laughter from up north can be heard already – Ken Parish had this to say at Troppo Armadillo:

I’m a bit surprised that Poll Bludger William Bowe is apparently so sanguine about Labor retaining Millner. Maybe he doesn’t quite realise that the CLP has a long and quite successful history of running dummy independents in close marginal seats to maximise the party’s vote. The "independent" is invariably a close CLP associate and proceeds to swap preferences tightly with the official candidate. Phil Mitchell is very much in that tradition, and with a margin of around 90 votes I expect him to have a significant influence. I reckon Millner is a lineball proposition; I wouldn’t want to call it either way. As for the Pollbludger’s prediction that Labor will win the seat of Araluen in Alice Springs from the CLP, I don’t think so sunshine. Do you want to put money on it? Alice Springs is injun country for Labor, and I don’t see anything in the tea-leaves likely to change that scenario. I’d give Labor’s Fran Kilgariff (current Alice Springs mayor and daughter of a legendary former CLP federal member) a very rough chance of unseating the CLP’s Richard Lim in Greatorex despite a margin of some 9%, but I certainly wouldn’t have her as favourite. Generally I’d be surprised to see any seats change hands in Alice Springs.

I had perhaps naively assumed that Phil Mitchell was running because he thought he might win, and concede that I might have understimated the impact a high-profile dummy independent candidate can have in a concentrated Darwin electorate. But Parish’s opinion that the seat is a "lineball proposition" encourages me to maintain my assessment that the seat will stay with Labor, since I expect them to enjoy a bigger-than-anticipated overall swing. As for Araluen, I never wanted to put money on it, but am now persuaded that Labor’s traditionally low primary vote here makes it a long shot. The 134-vote two-party margin from 2001 was influenced by a CLP dissident running as an independent and directing preferences to Labor, and this scenario does not look like it’s about to be repeated. With the adjustment of this prediction, this site’s current projection is that Labor will win 14 seats, the CLP nine and independents two. For what it’s worth, the punters appear to share my rosy view of Labor’s prospects – Centrebet is offering $1.30 for a Labor win and $3.15 for the CLP.

The following snippets from Parish’s post were news to me:

• The CLP candidate for Millner, Paul Mossman, "has found himself in all sorts of trouble over some appallingly sexist statements he made on an Internet political discussion board". Mossman posted on an Inside Politics thread regarding a 13-year-old girl in Florida who had been denied an abortion, saying she "should have just kept her legs closed in the first place". The comment has since been removed but the cached Google page remains. Other comments on the site by Mossman include one stating that there are "plenty in line waiting their chances" to assume the CLP leadership, and several supporting views expressed by fellow commenter Philippe Gregoire, a man with far too much to say.

• It is rumoured that Goyder MP Peter Maley, who was dumped first from the CLP front bench and then from the parliamentary party, is considering running as an independent. Maley’s actions in returning to his lucrative legal practice while still serving as a parliamentarian do not bespeak a man who is keen to continue in politics, but the word is that he might nominate "purely to screw Burke and deny the seat to the CLP".

The Poll Bludger is proud to unveil his seat-by-seat guide to the forthcoming Northern Territory election, to be held no later than October 15. This guide is probably more thorough than it needed to be for a parliament representing barely enough voters to account for two federal electorates, but two factors allowed its growth to get out of hand. One was the lack of anything better to do, given that there is unlikely to be another state election until South Australia goes to the polls on March 18 next year. The other was the nature of Northern Territory politics which, despite modest stakes and bite-sized Legislative Assembly electorates of roughly 4500 voters, turned out to be a lot more interesting than I had realised.

The modern era of Northern Territory democracy began in 1974 when a fully elected 19-member Legislative Assembly replaced the partly appointed Legislative Council that was established in 1947. The first eight elections for the Assembly, between 1974 and 1997, produced comfortable majorities for the Country Liberal Party. After failing to win a single seat in 1974, Labor’s representation remained stuck at the lower end of the six-to-nine seats range, which encouraged a conventional wisdom that gave Labor little chance of ever coming to power. It was felt the party was too closely identified with policies favourable to the indigenous population to win more than a handful of seats in metropolitan and pastoral areas, and that the small size of electorates (the Assembly increased from 19 to 25 members in 1983) provided sitting CLP members with insurmountable advantages of incumbency, since they were known personally to almost every one of their constituents. The failure of Labor to unseat a single sitting CLP member at the five elections between 1983 and 1997 meant the latter item in particular appeared to be carved in stone.

The 2001 election accordingly came as a shock to long-term observers. Led by an effective media performer in Clare Martin and facing a visibly tiring Country Liberal Party government (further burdened by what was then considered an unpopular Coalition government in Canberra), Labor picked up a 5.8 per cent swing and won a clean sweep of Darwin’s northern suburbs, winning Casuarina, Johnston, Karama, Millner, Nightcliff and Sanderson from the CLP. All but the latter two involved the defeat of a sitting member. Labor thus emerged with a bare majority of 13 out of 25 seats, a slightly fortunate outcome given that they trailed the CLP 40.6 per cent to 45.4 per cent on the primary vote and 48.1 per cent to 51.9 per cent on two-party preferred. All seven northern suburbs seats were won with margins of 7.2 per cent or less, the only comparably marginal CLP seat being Araluen in Alice Springs where they survived a 17.2 per cent swing to hold on by 2.0 per cent.

With Labor now in government, few of the existing items of conventional wisdom still apply. Previously, CLP claims that the sky would fall in if Labor ever came to power were impossible to disprove. Clare Martin’s government has not been without incident – it suffered from self-inflicted wounds over its zealous policing of pool fencing laws, a cause of major irritation in the top end, and the sacking of under-performing Health Minister Jane Aagaard in 2003. Its abolition of mandatory sentencing might also still rankle among an electorate notably concerned with law and order issues. But overall, the government and in particular its leader have projected an image of confidence and competence, and have not exhausted enough political capital to counter-balance the long list of factors now weighing in their favour. Chief among these is that the incumbency shoe is now on the other foot, with Labor enjoying the advantage of sitting members in all the important marginal seats. The Poll Bludger has two reasons to think this factor will be even more pronounced at the coming election. One is the tendency of voters to give new members the benefit of the doubt whey they first face re-election, which applies in all but one of the seven northern suburbs marginals. The other is the geographic concentration of these electorates, which has presumably made it a simple matter for the Martin government to concentrate largesse where it has been most required.

Party unity is another point in Labor’s favour. Labor has had no trouble galvanising behind the first leader ever to deliver it victory, whereas the CLP has faced the inevitable upheavals associated with adjusting to opposition after 27 years in government. In December 2003 the parliamentary party dumped Denis Burke, the leader who took it to defeat in 2001, in favour of Terry Mills – only to reinstall Burke in February after Mills stepped aside, conceding that he "wasn’t up to the job". While Burke’s return to the leadership was unopposed, few will be persuaded that the splits that led to his departure have been covered over. The CLP is going to have a very hard time persuading the electorate to trade in a stable government for a leader it has already rejected once, and who lost the confidence of his colleagues less than 18 months ago.

Labor’s failures in past Northern Territory elections have stood in contrast to its performance at the federal level. Until the creation of a second seat at the 2001 election, the federal electorate of Northern Territory was held by Labor as often as not. Since then, Labor has held the non-Darwin seat of Lingiari by bigger margins than the CLP has held Solomon, which remains highly marginal. Most of the exceptional circumstances that have underwritten the CLP hegemony at the territory level no longer exist, but many observers are maintaining an unwarranted caution about Labor’s prospects. The Poll Bludger is inclined to tip a sizeable swing in Labor’s favour, but such a swing will not necessarily deliver any new seats. The aforementioned Araluen is the only real CLP marginal, and the 2001 result here was distorted by preselection squabbles and high-profile independent challengers (despite a 17.2 per cent two-party swing, Labor’s primary vote was only up 1.6 per cent from 1997). The next most marginal CLP seat is Port Darwin (7.3 per cent), but local factors suggest that an eye should be kept on Daly (9.5 per cent), Goyder (14.8 per cent) and especially MacDonnell (8.5 per cent). For their part, the CLP reportedly has high hopes of winning Sanderson from Labor, but the Poll Bludger’s judgement is that the tide will be flowing too heavily in the other direction.