Category: South Australian Election 2022

Less than a fortnight to go in what’s been a fairly subdued South Australian election campaign, which has struggled for media oxygen in the face of international events. Early voting is under way as of yesterday, with record numbers of voters assuredly set to avail themselves of that option. A leaders debate will take place on Wednesday, although these tend not to generate a huge amount of public interest these days.

Recent news of note:

• The Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association has been hawking small-sample seat polls by Labor pollster Utting Research, the more notable of which shows Steven Marshall trailing 51-49 in his seat of Dunstan, amounting to a swing against him of over 8%. Primary votes are Liberal 44%, Labor 37% and Greens 12%. The other poll, from the western suburbs seat of Colton, is more in line with expectations: first-term Liberal member Matt Cowdrey leads 55-45, suggesting a very slight swing to Labor, from primary votes of Liberal 47%, Labor 34% and Greens 9% in a three-horse race. Both were automated phone polls with samples of 400, and duly wide margins of error.

• Conservative minor parties are directing preferences to Labor in two of the three most marginal Liberal seats. One Nation, Bob Day’s Australian Family Party and Family First are all directing preferences against Liberal member Richard Harvey in Newland, which he holds on a margin of 0.2%, based on how he voted during the passage of abortion laws last year. The two family parties are likewise directing preferences against Liberal member Paula Leuthen in King, where she is defending a margin of 0.8%.

• Without a huge amount of data to work on, a newly published election forecast model at Armarium Interreta credits Labor with a 64% chance of a parliamentary majority and Liberal with 18%.

With the closure of nominations on Monday, candidates lists in ballot paper order are now available on my election guide, at least for the lower house, my guide to the upper house still being a work in progress. Details of candidates and parties for the lower house are summarised by blog post by Antony Green. The Greens are unusually sitting it out in four rural seats, One Nation are running in 19 seats, and the Nationals are making their biggest showing in a while with eight. The new incarnation of Family First is putting considerable effort in with 34 candidates, but it faces competition for the “family” vote from the Australian Family Party, associated with former Senator Bob Day.

Interestingly, the Liberal Democrats have drawn top spot on the Legislative Council ticket, just as David Leyonhjelm did when elected to the Senate in New South Wales with 9.5% of the vote in 2013, maximising the party’s windfall from confused Liberal supporters. Others of note include former Labor MP Tom Kenyon at the head of the Family First ticket, Bob Day doing likewise for the Australian Family Party, and Annabel and Greg Digance running jointly on an independent ticket ahead of their looming trial on charges of having attempted to blackmail Peter Malinauskas.

Three weeks out from the election, The Australian offers a Newspoll result from South Australia with a striking headline figure of 53-47 to Labor on two-party preferred, amounting to a 4.9% swing to Labor compared with the 2018 result. The primary votes are Coalition 37%, Labor 39% and Greens 10%, compared with previous election results of Coalition 38.0%, Labor 32.8% and Greens 6.7%, with much of the residue accounted for by SA-Best. The poll is particularly encouraging for Labor leader Peter Malinauskas, who unusually for an Opposition Leader holds the lead on preferred premier, by 46-39. He also records a 51% approval rating, with disapproval at 31%. Steven Marshall is at 48% approval and 47% disapproval.

The poll was conducted Friday to Thursday from a sample of 1015. For a whole lot more on the election, my South Australian election guide can be found here.