Category: South Australian Politics

Months after surviving a leadership challenge by a solitary vote, Isobel Redmond has pulled the plug on her three-and-a-half year spell as leader of the South Australian Liberals. Her successor will be chosen at a secret party room ballot at 9am on Monday. The hot tip had been that Alexander Downer would be drafted in to take the reins, but his denials today have been fairly emphatic. Deputy leader Steven Marshall appears to be a likely starter on Monday; the unsuccessful challenger from November, Martin Hamilton-Smith, is also presumably considering his options. This post will be feature updates on events as they transpire.

UPDATE (1/2/13): Daniel Wills of the Advertiser:

FIRST-term MP Steven Marshall is firming to become state Liberal leader after Isobel Redmond’s shock resignation, but senior party sources insist he will only take the job “on his own terms”.

Lucille Keen of the Financial Review:

The surprise move has pushed her deputy, Steven Marshall, into the leader’s position pending a party-room vote on Monday.

Insiders say he is likely to win that vote but speculation is still intense about the possibility that Mr Downer will lead the party to the March 2014 poll.

Paul Starick of the Advertiser:

It remains more likely, if he is to assume the leadership, that Mr Downer would wait until later in the year before declaring his hand.

Equally, he might just let the issue fizzle out if a new leader performs strongly.

UPDATE (2/2/13): Steven Marshall has appeared for a symbolism-packed photo opportunity with bitter 90s leadership rivals John Olsen and Dean Brown, who have both announced their support for his leadership bid. Olsen had “reportedly been a backer of the Downer option”. Downer was not available for comment yesterday.

NOTE: Comments on Poll Bludger remain closed until January 7.

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has put a dampener on yuletide festivities for the South Australian Liberals, recording a sharp shift to Labor in the wake of Martin Hamilton-Smith’s narrowly unsuccessful challenge to Isobel Redmond’s leadership on October 23. The poll has the Liberals clinging to a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, after leading 57-43 in July-September. Labor is up nine points on the primary vote to 37% with the Coalition down three to 40% and the Greens down two to 9%. Redmond’s disapproval rating is up four points to 40%, equalling her approval rating which is unchanged. Jay Weatherill on the other hand records an actively positive result, his approval up seven to 49% and disapproval down one to 32%. Weatherill’s lead as preferred premier has widened from 40-27 to 47-27.

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has a surprisingly poor state poll result for the Labor government in South Australia, which it records as having crashed to a 57-43 deficit on two-party preferred for the July-September quarter. This compares with a 52-48 deficit when that last such poll was published for January-March, and the Labor government’s worst Newspoll result since it came to office in 2002. Labor’s primary vote of 28% is down six points on the previous poll, and was last at this level just before the 1993 election wipeout. The Liberals are up three to 43% and the Greens steady on 11%, with “others” having spiked three points to a remarkable 18%. Jay Weatherill’s honeymoon personal ratings have dissipated, his approval falling five points to 42% and his disapproval up ten to 33%. Isobel Redmond has surprisingly strong figures considering the speculation about her leadership, although her approval is down three to 40% and her disapproval up two to 36%. She has also narrowed her deficit as preferred premier from 46-23 to 40-27.

With the next election roughly 18 months away, we’ve been hearing the first preselection stirrings. Daniel Wills of the Sunday Mail provided an information-rich report on Liberal jockeying at the start of the month, noting a large number of women in the field:

• Peta McCance is again the front-runner for Liberal preselection in the southern suburbs seat of Mitchell, where Labor’s Alan Sibbons ousted Labor-turned-Greens-turned-independent member Kris Hanna last time after holding out against McCance with a two-party margin of 2.1% (adjusted to 2.4% by the redistribution).

• Maria Kourtesis’s bid to again contest the coastal southern suburbs seat of Bright as the Liberal candidate will face opposition from Marion deputy mayor David Speirs. Kourtesis fell 167 votes short of unseating Labor’s Chloe Fox in 2010, and the redistribution has given the seat a notional Liberal margin of 0.1%.

• Local party branch president Terina Monteagle is likely to contest Ashford, which Stephanie Key holds on a margin of 1.5%, reduced from 4.8% by the redistribution.

• Former state party director Bev Barber, who unsuccessfully sought to fill Mary Jo Fisher’s Senate vacancy, is “being spoken of as a possible candidate to run for Transport Minister Pat Conlon’s seat of Elder”. The redistribution cut Elder’s margin from 3.6% to 1.7%, and there is “doubt he will recontest”.

• Heidi Harris, staffer to front-bencher Duncan McFetridge, “may run in Fisher”, which is held by independent Bob Such (who as far as I’m aware will seek another term).

• In Colton, Jassmine Wood, who ran in Hindmarsh at the 2010 federal election, and Suzette Lamshed are possible starters to take on Water and River Murray Minister Paul Caica in Colton, where the margin is 3.9%.

• One of the few men named in Wills’s article is Norwood councillor Vincent Tarzia, who is “strongly tipped” to take on Education Minister Grace Portolesi in Hartley. Portolesi carved out a decisive victory in 2010 after suffering a swing of just 2.3%, but the redistribution has garnished her margin garnished from 2.3% to 0.5%. UPDATE: Independently Thinking in comments relates that Tarzia has backing from Christopher Pyne, and is likely to prevail over former member Joe Scalzi and Campbelltown councillor Marijka Ryan.

• Wills’s reported related that Tea Tree Gully mayor Miriam Smith was “likely” to contest Newland, which Sports Minister Tom Kenyon holds with a post-redistribution margin of 2.7%, although she subsequently denied this to Erin Jones of the Leader Messenger.

Elsewhere:

• There have been persistent suggestions that Finniss MP Michael Pengilly will lose his preselection. An honour student at the Grahame Morris school of gender sensitivity, Pengilly has variously said Transport Services Minister Chloe Fox “ought to be put down”; that Fox’s female staffers had been involved in a “catfight”; that the Prime Minister was a “real dog”; and that former Kangaroo Island major Jackie Kelly was a “dead dog walking”. It was also reported by Sarah Martin of The Advertiser that four councils within the Finniss electorate had held a formal meeting with Isobel Redmond to raise concerns about his dealings with them. Redmond agreed with a reporter’s suggestion that she had “little confidence” in Pengilly, who has refused to rule out running as an independent if dumped. There was speculation his party membership might be terminated. Adelaide lawyer Josh Teague, son of former Senator Baden Teague, has been mentioned as a possible successor, as has Alex Brown, son of former Premier Dean Brown.

• Barossa councillor Susie Reichstein was named by The Advertiser’s Greg Kelton as a possible Liberal successor for Schubert MP Ivan Venning when he announced his intention to retire in July.

• Peter Treloar, member for the very safe Liberal Eyre Peninsula seat of Flinders, made a surprise announcement earlier in the month that he was bowing out due to “personal and family reasons”. However, he changed his mind a few days later.

• A putative challenge to Liberal front-bencher David Pisoni’s preselection in Unley was knocked on the head by the party’s candidate review committee. The prospective candidated was Peter Maddern, a businessman who ran in Morialta for the Save the Royal Adelaide Hospital Party in 2010.

The Advertiser today brings us a poll of South Australian state voting intention which has the Liberals leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, remembering that they were unable to win the 2010 election with 51.6% (although the redistribution would have strengthened their position slightly). The primary votes are 33% for Labor, 45% for Liberal, 7% for the Greens and 3% for Family First. The poll was conducted on Wednesday from a very modest sample of 481, with a margin of error of about 4.5%. We are also told Labor leads 51-49 in Adelaide and trails 62-38 in the country, from samples which push the error margin well into the red. Both sets of numbers suggest swings of about 2.5%, enough to win the Liberals Bright, Hartley, Ashford, Elder and Mitchell – which would still leave them a seat short of a majority in a house of 47 members, assuming the re-election of the three independents.

The poll also features personal ratings, which provide good-fair-poor splits rather than the more familiar approve-disapprove. These find Isobel Redmond’s position substantially deteriorating since the last such poll nine months ago, whereas Jay Weatherill continues to perform well. Weatherill, who was new to the job when the last poll was conducted and accordingly had a high undecided rating, is up six points on good to 25%, seven on fair to 51% and eight on poor to 33%, whereas Redmond is down nine on good to 13%, up three on fair to 47%, and up 12 on poor to 33%. (Note: The puzzling 76% and 60% approval ratings I read into The Advertiser’s report in the first version of this post turned out to be combined good and fair ratings).

The poll also asked respondents to nominate their preferred Liberal leader, and mischievously threw Alexander Downer into the mix. Downer was in the lead with 29% support against 26% for Redmond, 13% for Redmond’s most likely challenger Martin Hamilton-Smith, 3% for Iain Evans (like Hamilton-Smith an ousted former leader), 3% for Steven Marshall and 2% for Vickie Chapman. On the question of “best economic plan for South Australia”, the parties are effectively tied with Labor on 38% and Liberal on 37%.

For those wondering why the Liberal leadership question was asked in the way that it was, some background is in order. Isobel Redmond assumed the leadership in July 2009, at which time Labor had a two-party lead in Newspoll of 56-44. As noted, she went on to win the two-party vote at the 2010 election 51.6-48.4, without winning the seats needed to secure a majority. Along the way, she recorded a net approval rating of 38% (58% approval and 20% disapproval) in the Newspoll of January-February 2010, along with a statistically identical result in the poll conducted immediately before the election of March 24. The only Opposition Leader to do better from Newspoll figures going back 26 years, federally or in any mainland state, was Carmen Lawrence in the first poll after her government lost office in Western Australia in 1993.

However:

• Redmond’s net approval rating has narrowed appreciably over each of the four Newspoll results published during the government’s current term, while still remaining positive in the January-March result at 43% approval and 34% disapproval (for some reason, state Newspoll results for the second quarter of this year never eventuated).

• The 18% lead she enjoyed over Mike Rann as preferred Premier had turned into a slight deficit by the last poll before Rann’s departure, and the two polls on Jay Weatherill’s watch have had him leading by 17% and 19%.

• Redmond was widely seen to have erred when she declined to dodge questions as to whether it had been suggested she should fill Mary Jo Fisher’s vacancy in the Senate, instead saying she had been approached by “a friend within the party”, and that the suggestion had been “considered but dismissed”.

• Redmond’s predecessor as leader, Martin Hamilton-Smith, has been suitably evasive when asked about his ambitions. Greg Kelton in The Advertiser says that only he “appears to come close to having the level of support necessary” out of the current parliamentary line-up, with Steven Marshall, Dan van Holst Pellekaan or Peter Treloar possibly emerging as “cleanskin” candidates if the party decides to make a change nearer the election.

• Hamilton-Smith being seen as a less-than-inspiring alternative, there has been discussion of a Campbell Newman option, which is where Alexander Downer comes in. Greg Kelton of The Advertiser reported earlier this month that Liberal sources had suggested Downer was interested, although his lobbying business partner Ian Smith said he was “not sure state politics would tickle his fancy”. Smith himself has been the subject of an approach from federal Mayo MP Jamie Briggs to run for parliament, although Briggs denies this was made with a view to him taking the leadership, and Smith declared himself uninterested in any case.

GhostWhoVotes relates that Newspoll has published its quarterly South Australian state results, which presumably portends something for Western Australia shortly. It shows South Australia continuing to look a different political planet from New South Wales and Queensland, with Premier Jay Weatherill enjoying honeymoon personal ratings and voting intention figures that would be the envy of his counterparts across the land. Not that Labor is actually ahead: they trail 52-48 on two-party preferred and their primary vote is an unimpressive 34 per cent, compared with 40 per cent for the Liberals (all unchanged on the previous poll, with the Greens up two to 11 per cent). The former result is nonetheless what Labor was able to win an election with in 2010, albeit that the redistribution commissioners will shortly be charged with the task (which I don’t envy them) of redrawing the map in such a way as to level Labor’s advantage.

Some of the shine has come off Weatherill since his debut survey, with his disapproval rating up nine points, but this is off a very low base (14 per cent) and mostly at the expense of the large “don’t know” rating. His approval rating, though down four, is still at a robust 47 per cent. Correspondingly, the poll makes grim reading for Isobel Redmond. As well as not delivering the Liberals voting intention figures of they kind they’ve been growing accustomed to across the country, her once formidable personal ratings have taken a big knock: approval down six points to 43 per cent and disapproval up four to 34 per cent. She has also lost further ground to Weatherill as preferred premier, now trailing 46-23 compared with 45-27 last time.

The poll was conducted throughout January to March from a sample of 870, with a margin of error somewhere between 3 and 3.5 per cent.

PORT ADELAIDE

	#	%	Swing	2PP (proj.)
Lawrie (IND LIB)	2429	15.1%	-11.2%
Thomas (IND)	238	1.5%
Briton (IND)	255	1.6%
Pistor (DLP)	124	0.8%
Carlin (ONE)	200	1.2%
Close (ALP)	6882	42.8%	-7.4%	52.4%
McArthur (GRN)	934	5.8%	-0.3%
Johanson (IND)	3904	24.3%		47.6%
Humble (LDP)	1099	6.8%
TOTAL	16065
Booths counted	11 out of 11
Votes counted	63.6% of enrolled voters

10.16pm. All 2PP results are now in, so the table is finalised by the night. Declaration votes are still to come, but these can be relied upon to lean in the favour of incumbent major political parties.

9.23pm. Taperoo primary votes added. Only the last two booths’ two-party counts remain outstanding.

8.56pm. Mawson Lakes booth primary vote result added.

8.47pm. The 2CP result from Ottoway has truly broken the back of Johanson’s challenge to Labor, splitting 1110-595 against him. Labor’s raw lead is now 6.1 per cent. Mawson Lakes and Taperoo still yet to report.

8.20pm. Ottoway has reported on the primary vote and Parafield Gardens on 2CP: both strong results for Labor. The raw 2CP and my projection are now in accord: Labor ahead by 4.2 per cent.

8.09pm. Parafield Gardens Central has reported on 2CP which has brought the raw figure almost in line with my projection, which is always gratifying. I think Labor are home and hosed now.

8.05pm. And sure enough, Parafield Gardens North-West has reported 2CP and put Labor in a 1.8 per cent lead on the raw 2CP total, while they continue to edge up on my projection. Barring late surprises, I think they can probably start breathing a little easier now.

8.01pm. We’ve got five booths that have reported 2CP and eight that have reported the primary vote. The three which have done the latter but not the former are all from Parafield Gardens, and Labor’s primary vote in the booths in question is 48.5 per cent compared with 40.9 per cent for the others – which mostly explains why my projection is rosier for Labor than the raw figures.

7.55pm. The large Parafield Gardens Central booth has given Labor a boost, such that Johanson’s raw 2CP lead is now just 0.1 per cent. The smaller Taperoo East has reported on both primary and 2CP. My own projection is remaining fairly steady, which is what it’s designed to do.

7.50pm. North Haven booth has simultaneously reported primary and 2CP and it’s a very strong result for Johanson, whose share of preferences has also increased to 72.6 per cent. On the raw 2CP count from four booths, he has a 1.3 per cent lead, although my projection has Labor 2.7 per cent ahead.

7.47pm. Parafield Gardens North-West booth reports and it’s the weakest yet for Johnason, slightly pushing out my projected Labor lead on 2CP.

7.36pm. A third booth has reported 2CP. The raw figures from the three booths with 2CP have Johanson with his nose in front 50.6-49.4, but my projection factors in that these were below average booths for Labor in 2010.

7.34pm. Sorry, corrected an error in my calculations – Johanson is getting 69.8 per cent of preferences, and I’ve now got Labor back in front.

7.32pm. The Port Adelaide booth has reported its primary votes and, better yet, two booths have reported 2CP counts – and Johanson is getting 77 per cent of preferences rather than the 66 per cent I was projected. That puts him in the lead on my projection, and he also has his nose in front on the raw count from those two booths.

7.27pm. Meanwhile in Ramsay, five of nine booths have reported and Labor’s primary vote remains a little over 50 per cent.

7.24pm. Swings recorded in the table above are booth-matched. I’ve included one for Lawrie who was the Liberal candidate in 2010. At present, Labor’s 2PP is calculated by adding the booth-matched swing to their total primary vote result from 2010 and giving them one third of the preferences. If their preference share proves significantly lower than that, they’re in big trouble.

7.23pm. Port Adelaide booth now added; my projection now has Labor a little further ahead, but with Labor below 40 per cent and Johanson pushing 30 per cent, they’d be feeling very nervous.

7.21pm. With a second booth added (Largs North-West to go with the earlier Largs North-East) I now have Labor sneaking in front, but until we start getting booths reporting their two-candidate preferred counts, this will continue to be off an arbitrary preference split.

7.17pm. I’ve just published my table and it projects Gary Johanson as being in the lead, but at this stage this comes from a completely arbitrary 66-34 preference guess, so please don’t take it as a prediction.

7.14pm. The first booth from Port Adelaide is an intriguingly strong result for Gary Johanson on 29.0 per cent, with Labor on 41.0 per cent. If this keeps up, it might well be close.

7.01pm. I note that ECSA have nominated Gary Johanson in Port Adelaide and Ruth Beach of the Greens in Ramsay as their candidates for the notional two-candidate preferred count. Though for what it’s worth, the weekend’s Advertiser poll had independent Liberal Sue Lawrie outpolling Johanson.

6.57pm. One booth in from Ramsay and the Labor vote is at 53.2 per cent. The second placed candidate is independent and occasional PB commenter Mark Aldridge on 17.4 per cent. So no boilover there clearly. I will only be doing my usual results table and swing calculation for Port Adelaide.

6.05pm. Polls have closed in South Australia’s Port Adelaide and Ramsay by-elections. Results should start coming in in about an hour, maybe a little sooner.