Newspoll: 51-49 to Liberal in SA

Newspoll’s final survey of state voting intention in South Australia for the year records a sharp move to Labor in the wake of the unsuccessful challenge to Liberal leader Isobel Redmond.

NOTE: Comments on Poll Bludger remain closed until January 7.

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has put a dampener on yuletide festivities for the South Australian Liberals, recording a sharp shift to Labor in the wake of Martin Hamilton-Smith’s narrowly unsuccessful challenge to Isobel Redmond’s leadership on October 23. The poll has the Liberals clinging to a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, after leading 57-43 in July-September. Labor is up nine points on the primary vote to 37% with the Coalition down three to 40% and the Greens down two to 9%. Redmond’s disapproval rating is up four points to 40%, equalling her approval rating which is unchanged. Jay Weatherill on the other hand records an actively positive result, his approval up seven to 49% and disapproval down one to 32%. Weatherill’s lead as preferred premier has widened from 40-27 to 47-27.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

One comment on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Liberal in SA”

  1. The shine has completely disappeared from Redmond and the public aren’t keen on MHS. The Weatherill govt is certainly vulnerable but it is certainly not terminal, as the aftermath of the BHP announcement wasn’t as bad as some predicted (or hoped).

    Probably the Libs’ best chance is Steven Marshall. They will keep him on ice for now but, if things continue like this for the Libs, expect his profile to rise.

    If Redmond or MHS are there at the election and Labor win (a real possibility), expect Marshall to become the new Lib leader after that (and probably the next Premier in 2018)… assuming, of course, he doesn’t lose his seat (unlikely).

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *