Category: Canadian Politics

Canadian election minus three days

The Liberals’ lead narrows ahead of the Canadian election results on Tuesday AEST, but they are still likely to win a majority of seats. Other upcoming and past elections are also covered.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

The Canadian federal election will be held on Monday, with first past the post used to elect the 343 MPs; 172 seats are required for a majority. Polls close on Tuesday AEST, with polls in the 32 Atlantic Canada seats closed by 9:30am AEST Tuesday. At 11:30am AEST, the large majority of polls close simultaneously owing to staggered polling hours across three time zones. At 12pm AEST, the final polls close in British Columbia (43 seats).

Vote counting will initially be fast, but will slow down as election-day booths are exhausted, with the final booths being early voting centres, like in Australia. Elections Canada said 7.3 million had voted during the advance voting period from April 18-21, an increase of 25% from 2021. This represents about 25% of all eligible voters.

The CBC Poll Tracker was updated Friday, and it gives the governing centre-left Liberals 42.3% of the vote (down 1.7 since my previous Canadian article last Saturday), the Conservatives 38.6% (up 1.5), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 8.6% (up 0.1), the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 6.0% (up 0.6) (25.6% in Quebec), the Greens 2.3% (down 0.1) and the far-right People’s 1.4% (down 0.3).

Seat point estimates are 190 Liberals (down 11 since last Saturday), 125 Conservatives (up nine), 22 BQ (up two), five NDP (steady) and one Green (steady). The Tracker now gives the Liberals a 73% chance of a majority, down from 87% previously. They have a 17% chance to win the most seats but not a majority. A Canadian YouGov MRP poll has a Liberal majority, with 185 seats as its central prediction.

Atlantic Canada has four low-population provinces, and the Liberals hold a 20-point lead over the Conservatives in this region in the Tracker.  The early results from Atlantic Canada could give clues about how accurate the polls are.

The Liberal vote is more efficiently distributed than the Conservative vote owing to Conservative vote wastage in safe rural seats. At the 2021 election, the Liberals won 160 of the then 338 seats on 32.6%, with the Conservatives winning 119 seats on 33.7%.

However, there would have been many seats in 2021 where the Liberal’s margin was relatively low owing to a high NDP or BQ vote. With support for the NDP halved from 17.8% in 2021, the Liberal margin in these seats will increase, leading to more Liberal vote wastage and a less efficiently distributed vote.

I covered the Canadian election and Donald Trump’s sliding US ratings for The Conversation on Wednesday. Since this article, Trump’s net approval has slid a further 2.4 points to -7.8 in Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls (52.2% disapprove, 44.4% approve).

Poland, Romania and Ecuador

The Polish presidential election will be held on May 18 with a runoff on June 1. Incumbent Andrzej Duda of the socially right but economically left PiS can’t run again. There had been a surge for the far-right KON’s candidate, but that surge has abated, and the final two will likely be the economically conservative but socially liberal PO’s candidate against PiS. The PO is likely to win, and thus gain control of government after winning the October 2023 parliamentary election.

In December the Romanian courts annulled the presidential election results shortly before the runoff, and there will be a re-run on May 4 (first round) and May 18 (runoff). The courts rejected the nomination of the far-right candidate who had won the original first round. Another far-right candidate is very likely to win the first round, with the polls disagreeing on which of three candidates will also qualify for the runoff.

At the April 13 Ecuadorian presidential runoff election, the incumbent economic conservative defeated the left’s candidate by 55.6-44.4. However, the left will control parliament, which was elected on February 9 by proportional representation, with 67 of the 151 seats for the main left-wing coalition and nine for an indigenous left-wing party, to 70 seats for conservative parties.

Canadian election minus nine days

The Liberal lead drops slightly, but they are still likely to win a seat majority on April 28. Also covered: the May 1 UK local elections and a parliamentary by-election.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

The Canadian federal election will be held on April 28, with first past the post used to elect the 343 MPs; 172 seats are required for a majority. The CBC Poll Tracker was updated Friday, and it gives the governing centre-left Liberals 43.7% of the vote (down 0.3 since my previous Canadian article on April 10), the Conservatives 37.7% (up 0.6), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 8.5% (steady), the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 5.4% (steady) (23.7% in Quebec), the Greens 2.4% (steady) and the far-right People’s 1.7% (steady).

Seat point estimates are 197 Liberals (down four since my April 10 article), 122 Conservatives (up six), 18 BQ (down two), five NDP (steady) and one Green (steady). The Tracker now gives the Liberals an 88% chance of a majority if the election were held now, up from 87% previously. The Liberal lead had dropped to 5.3 points in Thursday’s Tracker update before recovering on Friday.

The Liberal vote is more efficiently distributed than the Conservative vote owing to Conservative vote wastage in very safe rural seats. At the 2021 election, the Liberals won 160 of the then 338 seats on 32.6%, with the Conservatives winning 119 seats on 33.7%.

There were two leaders’ debates: a French debate on Wednesday and an English debate on Thursday. Both debates had the leaders of the NDP and BQ as well as the Liberal and Conservative leaders. A snap Abacus Data poll, taken after the English debate, gave Liberal leader and PM Mark Carney a net +37 positive rating, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre had a net +23 positive rating. The NDP and BQ leaders did not impress voters.

We will need to wait three more days for voting intention polls to be fully taken after both debates. These debates were probably the last opportunity for a Conservative revival before the election. Unless the polls are significantly overstating the Liberals, the Liberals should win.

In an early April YouGov Canadian poll, by 64-25, respondents said the US was unfriendly or an enemy (50-33 in February). By 84-11, they opposed Canada becoming part of the US. If they had been able to vote in the 2024 US presidential election, Kamala Harris would have defeated Donald Trump by 57-18 among Canadians.

UK local elections and parliamentary by-election

UK local government elections will be held on May 1. These are held every May, but on a four-year cycle, so most seats up at these elections last faced election in 2021. The BBC calculates a Projected National Share (PNS) for each year’s elections, which allows results for a particular election to be compared to the previous year’s election, and also to the election four years ago. Only English councils are included in this year’s elections.

In 2021, the last time these seats were contested, Boris Johnson was popular, and the Conservatives won the PNS by 36-29 over Labour with 17% for the Liberal Democrats. In the 2024 local elections, held two months before the general election where Labour won a landslide, Labour won the PNS by 34-25 over the Conservatives, with 17% for the Lib Dems and 12% for the Greens. Usually PNS only gives vote shares for Labour, the Conservatives and Lib Dems, but the far-right Reform should be included this year.

The Election Maps UK national poll aggregate gives Labour 24.4% of the vote, Reform 23.9%, the Conservatives 22.5%, the Lib Dems 13.6% and the Greens 9.0%. If these vote shares are reflected at the local elections, Reform will make massive gains at the expense of the Conservatives, with Labour also slumping. Polls conducted in April give Labour leader and PM Keir Starmer a net approval below -30.

There will also be a parliamentary by-election on May 1 for the Labour-held Runcorn and Helsby. Labour MP Mike Amesbury resigned in March after being sentenced for assault. At the 2024 election, Labour defeated Reform in this seat by 52.9-18.1 with 16.0% for the Conservatives, 6.4% for the Greens and 5.1% for the Lib Dems. Two seat polls conducted in March gave Reform 3-5 point leads over Labour.

Canadian election minus 18 days

A big Liberal seat majority in Canada is becoming more likely. Also covered: South Korea’s president removed from office and a new presidential election required.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

The Canadian federal election will be held on April 28, with first past the post used to elect the 343 MPs; 172 seats are required for a majority. The CBC Poll Tracker was updated Wednesday, and it gives the governing centre-left Liberals 44.0% of the vote (up 2.0 since my previous Canadian article on April 1), the Conservatives 37.1% (down 0.4), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 8.5% (down 0.6), the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 5.4% (down 0.1) (23.9% in Quebec), the Greens 2.4% (down 0.4) and the far-right People’s 1.7% (down 0.5).

Seat point estimates are 201 Liberals (up four since my April 1 article), 116 Conservatives (down seven), 20 BQ (up one), five NDP (up two) and one Green (steady). The Tracker now gives the Liberals an 87% chance of a majority if the election were held now, up from 80% previously.

The Liberals and Conservatives have a combined 81.1% in the Tracker. If replicated at the election, this would be the highest two-party vote since 1958. The Conservatives need the NDP, BQ and Greens to regain support at the Liberals’ expense. But a Léger poll has remaining NDP and BQ voters strongly supporting a Liberal government (majority or minority) over a Conservative one.

On April 2, Donald Trump announced his big “Liberation Day” tariffs. In the following two sessions (April 3-4), US stock markets suffered brutal losses. On Wednesday US time, Trump said tariffs above 10% on countries other than China would be paused for 90 days, but tariffs on China would increase to 125% after both China and the US had engaged in a trade war. US stocks surged to their biggest one-day gain since 2008. Trump’s net approval in Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls has dropped 2.5 points since my April 1 article to -5.0.

Trump’s tariff chaos in the last week has not had a large impact on the Canadian election, with the Liberal lead up from six points to seven. Canada has already had large doses of Trump’s tariffs, so further doses probably have diminishing returns. With the Liberals ahead by seven points in national polls and well above a majority of seats, they are the likely winners of the election. In early January, the Conservatives were 24 points ahead and headed for a landslide.

New South Korean presidential election required

On December 3, former South Korean right-wing president Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law, and was impeached for this by parliament on December 14 with 204 “yes” votes, just over the 200 needed for a two-thirds majority of the 300 MPs. Last Friday, the Constitutional Court unanimously upheld Yoon’s impeachment.

While the court was deliberating, Yoon had been suspended, and the PM had assumed his powers. After the court’s ruling, Yoon was removed from office, and the next presidential election was required by June 3, about two years early. The election will be held on June 3, with this day (a Tuesday) being declared a public holiday.

The president is elected by FPTP. The major parties are the centre-left Democrats and Yoon’s People Power Party (PPP). Major party nominees have not yet been chosen, but hypothetical polling gives Lee Jae-myung, the current Democratic leader, a double-digit lead over all potential PPP candidates.

Parliamentary elections are held separately from presidential elections. At the last parliamentary elections in April 2024, Democrats and their allies defeated the PPP by 188 seats to 108, out of 300 total seats. Winning the presidential election would give Democrats control of government until the 2028 parliamentary elections.

Canadian election and US special elections

Poll movement to the Liberals continues in Canada, putting them well over a majority of seats. Also covered: two US federal special elections in safe Republican seats.

Live Commentary

4:36pm Crawford wins by 55.1-44.9 in the Wisconsin state supreme court election with nearly all votes counted. That’s an 11-point swing to the left from the Trump margin in Wisconsin in 2024. The left retains its 4-3 majority on the Wisconsin state supreme court.

12:29pm With 13% reporting in Wisconsin, the left-wing Crawford leads the right-wing Schimel by 51-49 for the supreme court election. I’ll be going out shortly.

11:52am Near-final results are 56.7-42.7 to the Rep in Fl-6, a 14.0-pt margin, and 57.0-42.2 to the Rep in Fl-1, a 14.8-pt margin.

11:28am With 89% counted in Fl-1, the Rep leads by 55.4-43.8. The Reps will win both Fl-1 and Fl-6 by about 13 points, down from Trump’s 37-point margin in 2024 in Fl-1 and 30 points in Fl-6. So big swings to the Dems, but not enough to seriously threaten the Rep holds of these seats. Reps extend their House seat lead to 220-213.

11:13am With all counties in Fl-1 reporting their early votes, the Rep leads by 49.8-49.4, and this lead will grow when election day votes come in.

11:07am The Dem takes a likely very brief 51-48 lead after a populous county’s early vote reported.

11:03am In Florida’s first, the Rep starts out with a 53-46 lead with 10% in. These are early votes, and the Reps did much better on election day.

10:47am Trump will announce new tariffs at 7am AEDT Thursday, so they won’t be imposed today.

10:30am With 72% counted including votes from all counties in this district, the Rep leads by 53.7-45.6, and will win by at least a double digit margin.

10:14am With 49% counted, the Rep takes the lead by 50.6-48.6, and is very likely to win once all votes are counted.

10:03am With 24% reporting in Fl 6, the Dem leads by 53-45. But these are just early votes, and don’t yet account for the Rep election day surge.

9:53am New York Times results are here. While Reps performed weaker than expected in early voting, they’ve had a massive surge on election day in the Florida specials that should get their candidates home easily. This is just party registration data, not votes for candidates.

9:45am Wednesday The addition of polls released Monday has pushed the Liberals up to a 43.2-37.4 vote lead over the Conservatives in the CBC Poll Tracker and a 203-116 seat lead.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

The Canadian federal election will be held on April 28, with first past the post used to elect the 343 MPs; 172 seats are required for a majority. The CBC Poll Tracker was updated Monday, and it gives the governing centre-left Liberals 42.0% of the vote (up 4.5 since my previous Canadian article on March 24), the Conservatives 37.5% (up 0.4), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 9.1% (down 2.5), the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 5.5% (down 0.9) (24.6% in Quebec), the Greens 2.8% (down 1.0) and the far-right People’s 2.2% (steady).

Seat point estimates are 197 Liberals (up 23 since my March 24 article), 123 Conservatives (down 11), 19 BQ (down seven), three NDP (down four) and one Green (down one). The Tracker now gives the Liberals an 80% chance of a majority if the election were held now, up from 50% previously. The consolidation of the left-wing vote behind the Liberals is hurting the smaller left-wing parties. The NDP won 25 of the then 338 seats at the 2021 election, but could be wiped out at this election.

This has been a stunning comeback for the Liberals, who were 24 points behind the Conservatives in the Tracker in early January, with the Conservatives winning well over 200 seats. Mark Carney’s replacement of Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader and PM has lifted the Liberals, but I believe Donald Trump is most responsible for the Liberals’ revival. There are still four weeks until the election, so the polls could still turn back in the Conservatives’ favour. But the Liberals are currently ahead.

Trump is set to impose more tariffs at 3pm AEDT Wednesday, and these tariffs could further assist the Liberals in Canada and Labor in Australia. In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump’s net approval is -2.5, slightly down from -2.1 in my previous article.

US federal special elections

Polls close for US federal House special elections (by-elections in Australia) at 10am AEDT Wednesday in Florida’s sixth and 11am in Florida’s first. Florida counts its votes fast. Both seats are safe Republican, with Trump beating Kamala Harris by 30 points in the sixth and 37 in the first according to this spreadsheet of 2024 presidential results by Congressional District. Two polls in the sixth average out to a near-tie between the Democratic and Republican candidates; these polls are difficult to believe.

Republicans hold a 218-213 House majority, so winning these two seats will make it 220-213. Two Democratic members have died recently; they held Arizona’s seventh (Harris by 22) and Texas’ 18th (Harris by 40). The special in Arizona won’t occur until September, while the Texan special has not yet been scheduled. Trump had nominated Elise Stefanik, Republican member for New York’s 21st (Trump by 21), to be his UN ambassador, but he withdrew this nomination on Thursday as Republicans were worried about this seat.

G. Elliott Morris, who used to run FiveThirtyEight before it was axed, said that 14 state special elections have been held so far this year. On average, Democrats are performing ten points better than the Trump vs Harris presidential margin in those same districts.

The swing to Democrats in in line with what occurred in state special elections in 2017, the first year of Trump’s first term. Morris said this does not necessarily reflect a swing in the general electorate towards Democrats, but just that Democrats do well with high-engagement voters, who are most likely to vote in low-turnout specials.

As well as the specials, there will be a Wisconsin state supreme court election, with polls closing at 12pm AEDT Wednesday. While court elections in Wisconsin are officially nonpartisan, Schimel is the right-wing candidate, and is being heavily backed by Elon Musk. Crawford is the left-wing candidate, and the left currently has a 4-3 court majority, with this seat a left defence. Republican-aligned polls have Crawford ahead. Wisconsin voted for Trump by 0.9 points. I will be out on Wednesday afternoon.

Canadian election called for April 28

Mark Carney calls the Canadian federal election just before parliament was due to resume, with the Liberals narrowly ahead of the Conservatives in the polls.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

On March 9, Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, was elected Liberal leader with 86% of points and 87% of the popular vote. On March 14, Carney replaced Justin Trudeau as Canadian PM. On Sunday (Canadian time), Carney called the Canadian federal election for April 28, about six months early.

Parliament had been due to resume on Monday after it was prorogued for the Liberal leadership election. The governing centre-left Liberals won 160 of the then 338 seats at the September 2021 election, ten short of a majority, and have been reduced to 152 through by-election losses and defections. Carney is not an MP, so he could not address parliament (he will contest Nepean at the election). Perhaps owing to these difficulties, Carney called the election early.

There will be 343 seats elected by first past the post at this election, up from 338 in 2021, so 172 seats will be needed for a majority. The CBC Poll Tracker was updated Sunday, and it gives the Liberals 37.5%, the Conservatives 37.1%, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 11.6%, the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 6.4% (28.4% in Quebec), the Greens 3.8% and the far-right People’s 2.2%. Seat predictions are 174 Liberals, just over a majority, 134 Conservatives, 26 BQ, seven NDP and two Greens.

In early January, just before Trudeau announced he would resign once a new Liberal leader had been elected, vote shares in the Tracker were 44% Conservative, 20% Liberal and 19% NDP. At this point, the Conservatives looked headed for a massive landslide with well over 200 seats, while the Liberals could have fallen into third behind the BQ.

Donald Trump is probably most responsible for the Liberal revival, with his tariffs and his talk of making Canada the 51st US state pushing Canadians back to supporting the Liberals. Trump is expected to impose more tariffs on April 2, possibly assisting the Liberals further. I believe Trump’s tariffs and associated stock market falls have also helped Labor in Australia.

However, I don’t believe in momentum in elections: just because one party is gaining ground in the polls doesn’t mean that party will continue to gain ground. The massive surge for the Liberals could reverse during the election campaign, perhaps as voters refocus on stuff they don’t like about the Liberals after nearly ten years of Liberal government since Trudeau was first elected in October 2015.

US and Portugal

In Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls, Trump has a net approval of -2.1 (49.6% disapprove, 47.5% approve). His net approval turned negative on March 11. Trump has fallen from +12 net approval at the start of his term.

A Portuguese parliamentary election will be held on May 18, only 14 months after the March 2024 election. The early election came after the conservative AD, which governed in minority with support from the far-right Chega, lost a confidence vote. Polls indicate another AD-led minority government is likely. Portugal uses proportional representation by region to elect its 230 MPs.

Canadian federal Liberal leadership election live

Mark Carney very likely to replace Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader and Prime Minister, as the Liberals surge back in Canadian federal polls.

12:07pm Tuesday Wikipedia shows the popular votes as well as the points system used (100 points for each of the 343 electorates, for a total of 34,300). Carney won 86.8% of the membership vote out of nearly 152,000 total votes and 85.9% of the points.

9:37am Carney has been elected Liberal leader and will replace Trudeau as PM, after winning a first round majority. Carney won 85.9% of the vote, a bigger share than Trudeau in 2013 (a bit over 80%).

9:04am Monday The CBC has a live blog on the Liberal convention happening now that will announce the winner.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

I covered today’s Canadian federal Liberal leadership election in late January and mid-February. Preferential voting is used, with each of Canada’s 343 electorates having 100 points and those points assigned in proportion to votes in that electorate. With a total of 34,300 points, 17,151 are needed for a majority. This system skews towards electorates with relatively few registered Liberal voters.

Voting commenced on February 26 and ends at 6am AEDT Monday, with results to be announced in Ottawa. The winner will replace Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader and PM. Parliament, where the Liberals don’t hold a majority, will resume on March 23 after it was prorogued for the leadership election. The next Canadian federal election is due by October, but it could be held earlier.

Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, had 68% among Liberal supporters in a February Léger poll, but a Mainstreet poll gave him only a 43-31 lead over former deputy PM Chrystia Freeland. Carney also has a big lead in endorsements.

All Canadian general elections use first past the post. The CBC Poll Tracker was updated Wednesday. The Conservatives lead the centre-left Liberals by 40.3-30.8, with 14.4% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP), 6.8% for the left-wing separatist Quebec Bloc (BQ) (29.1% in Quebec), 4.2% for the Greens and 2.5% for the far-right People’s. Seet estimates are 171 of 343 Conservatives, one short of a majority, 125 Liberals, 31 BQ, 14 NDP and two Greens.

Éric Grenier’s commentary said that polls taken in the last week are not showing the Liberal surge that was seen previously, with a Léger poll giving the Conservatives a 13-point lead, up from three points. However, polls used by the Tracker don’t include Carney in the readout; if they did it would be closer. An EKOS poll that is not yet included in the Tracker gave the Liberals a five-point lead, up from one in the previous EKOS poll.

Conservatives easily win third successive term in Ontario

Ontario is Canadia’s most populous province. At the February 27 election that was held about 15 months early, the Conservatives won 80 of the 124 seats (down three since the 2022 election), the NDP 27 seats (down four), the Liberals 14 (up six) and the Greens two (steady). Conservative Doug Ford became the first premier to win three successive majorities since 1959.

Vote shares were 43.0% Conservatives (up 2.1%), 30.0% Liberals (up 6.1%), 18.6% NDP (down 5.2%) and 4.8% Greens (down 1.1%). Despite the third place in popular votes over 11% behind the Liberals, the NDP won 13 more seats than the Liberals.

US, Austria and Germany

Sadly, FiveThirtyEight has been shut down by US ABC news. However, Nate Silver now has an aggregate of Donald Trump’s approval in US national polls. Trump is at net +0.8 (48.1% approve, 47.3% disapprove). At this stage of his presidency, Trump’s net approval is worse than for any other president going back to Truman, except Trump’s first term.

Special elections (by-elections in Australia) will occur on April 1 in two federal House Republican-held Florida seats. At the 2024 election, Republicans won both these seats by 32-33 points. Republicans hold the House by 218-215, so winning both these special elections will return them to the 220-215 result in 2024.

Austria uses proportional representation with a 4% threshold. At the September 29 election, the far-right FPÖ won 57 of the 183 seats (up 26 since 2019), the conservative ÖVP 51 (down 20), the centre-left SPÖ 41 (up one), the liberal NEOS 18 (up three) and the Greens 16 (down ten). A coalition government of ÖVP, SPÖ and NEOS was formed on March 2, five months after the election.

A week after the February 23 German federal election, where the centre-left SPD finished third behind the far-right AfD and conservative CDU/CSU, a state election was held in Hamburg using PR with a 5% threshold. The SPD won 45 of the 121 seats (down nine since 2020), the CDU 26 (up 11), the Greens 25 (down eight), the Left 15 (up two) and the AfD ten (up three). Despite the losses, the SPD and Greens easily won enough seats for a combined majority.

German election minus eight days

Polls remain bleak for the left shortly before the February 23 election. Also covered: the Canadian Liberal leadership contest, federal election polls and provincial elections.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

I covered the February 23 German federal election in late December and late January. To qualify for a proportional allocation of the 630 seats, parties must either win at least 5% of the national “party” vote, or win at least three single-member electorates, which are elected by first past the post,

Polls give the conservative CDU/CSU about 30%, the far-right AfD 20%, the centre-left SPD 15%, the Greens 13%, the Left 6%, the economically left but socially conservative BSW 4.5% and the pro-business FDP 4%. In the last few weeks, there has been some movement to the Left and against BSW, so the Left is likely to clear the 5% threshold, while BSW may fall short.

The SPD, Greens and FDP had formed a coalition government after the September 2021 election, but this coalition broke down in early November, leading to this election being held seven months early. The CDU/CSU has said it won’t form a government with the AfD, but they may need both the SPD and Greens to form a government without the AfD.

Canadian Liberal leadership and federal polls

A new leader of the governing centre-left Liberals to replace Justin Trudeau will be elected on March 9. Preferential voting is used, with each of Canada’s electorates having 100 points and those points assigned in proportion to votes in that electorate. The overwhelming favourite to be next Liberal leader and PM is former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney. Carney has surged from 27% among Liberal supporters in the first Léger poll on January 13 to 57% on January 25 and 68% on February 10.

All Canadian general elections use FPTP. The federal election is due by October, though it could be held earlier if the Liberals are defeated after parliament resumes on March 23. The CBC Poll Tracker was last updated Monday, and it has the Conservatives leading the Liberals by 42.4-25.5 with 16.4% for the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP), 8.1% for the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) (33.3% in Quebec), 4.1% for the Greens and 2.8% for the far-right People’s.

On these vote shares, the Conservatives are expected to win 205 of the 343 seats, the Liberals 79, the BQ 39 and NDP 18, with the Conservatives well above the 172 needed for a majority. In the last month, the Liberals’ vote share has increased from a low of 20.1% and the Conservatives have dropped from a high of 44.8%.

Conservative landslide likely at Ontario election

Ontario is Canada’s most populous province. Conservative Premier Doug Ford called an election for February 27, about 15 months early. The Writ’s current Ontario forecast is for the Conservatives to win 97 of the 124 seats on 44.6% of votes, the Liberals 14 seats on 28.3%, the NDP ten seats on 17.9% and the Greens two seats on 6.2%. This would be the Conservatives’ third successive term.

At the November 26 Nova Scotia election, the incumbent Conservatives were easily re-elected with 43 of the 55 seats (up 12 since 2021). The NDP won nine seats (up three) and the Liberals two (down 15). Vote shares were 52.5% Conservatives (up 14.1%), 22.2% NDP (up 1.2%) and 22.7% Liberals (down 14.0%).

US, UK and Ireland

In the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, Donald Trump’s net approval in US national polls is currently +3.4, with 49.0% approving and 45.7% disapproving. His net approval has dropped from a peak of +8.2 at the start of his term.

The far-right Reform has surged into a tie for the lead with Labour in UK national polls with the Conservatives further behind. The Find Out Now poll, which has a pro-Reform lean, has Reform six points ahead of Labour in its latest poll. Keir Starmer’s net favourability is -33 or worse in most recent polls.

At the November 29 Irish election, the two main conservative parties (Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael) won a combined 86 of the 174 seats, two short of a majority. On January 15, a coalition government was agreed between these two parties and nine of the 16 independents. Fianna Fáil’s Micheál Martin was elected Taoiseach (PM) after winning a parliamentary vote on January 23.

German election minus four weeks

Also covered: the Canadian Liberal leadership election after Justin Trudeau’s resignation. Polls in both Germany and Canada are bleak for the left.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here.

I covered the February 23 German federal election in late December. To qualify for a proportional allocation of the 630 seats, parties must either win at least 5% of the national “party” vote, or win at least three single-member electorates, which are elected by first past the post,

At the previous German election in September 2021, the centre-left SPD won 25.7% of the vote, the conservative CDU/CSU 24.1%, the Greens 14.7%, the pro-business FDP 11.4%, the far-right AfD 10.4% and the Left 4.9% (keeping a proportional entitlement by winning three single-member electorates). After 16 years of CDU/CSU-led coalition governments, the SPD, Greens and FDP formed a coalition government.

In November, this government broke down and this election will occur seven months early. Current polls give the CDU/CSU about 30%, the AfD 20%, the SPD 17%, the Greens 14%, the new economically left but socially conservative BSW 5%, the FDP 4% and the Left 4%. The CDU/CSU will likely need support from the SPD to avoid governing with the AfD.

Conservatives have large lead in Canadian polls

On January 6, Justin Trudeau announced he would resign as Canadian Liberal leader and PM once a new Liberal leader had been elected. As the Liberals don’t have a majority in parliament, it has been prorogued until March 24 to allow the Liberal leadership to be resolved.

The leadership election will occur on March 9 among registered Liberals using preferential voting. Each of Canada’s seats gets 100 points that are allocated proportionally according to votes in that seat. A majority of all points is needed to win. This system will skew results in favour of seats where there are relatively few Liberals.

In the lead-up to Trudeau’s resignation announcement, the Conservatives had gained three seats from the Liberals at by-elections on big swings, and Chrystia Freeland, deputy PM and minister for finance, had resigned. The leadership election is likely to be a contest between Freeland and Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and Bank of England.

The Canadian federal election is due by October, but it will be held early if the Liberals are defeated when parliament resumes on March 24. There are 343 seats elected by FPTP, so it takes 172 for a majority. At the September 2021 election, the centre-left Liberals won 160 of the then 338 seats on 32.6% of the national vote, the Conservatives 119 on 33.7%, the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 32 on 7.6% (32.1% in Quebec), the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) 25 on 17.8% and the far-right People’s zero on 4.9%.

The CBC Poll Tracker has the Conservatives at 44.8%, the Liberals at 21.9%, the NDP at 17.6%, the BQ at 8.2% (35.3% in Quebec), the Greens at 3.8% and the People’s at 2.6%. The Conservatives are estimated as winning 225 seats to 53 Liberals, 41 BQ and 22 NDP. However, this tracker was last updated on Monday, and an EKOS poll that was completed Thursday had the Conservatives just 3.8 points ahead of the Liberals, though EKOS has had better results for the Liberals than other pollsters.

Trudeau promised to reform Canada’s electoral system before he won the October 2015 election, but did nothing. FPTP assists the Conservatives in Canada, who are the only significant right-wing party.

US and Croatia

On Monday, Donald Trump began his four-year term as US president, replacing Joe Biden after the November election. Biden’s final ratings as president in the FiveThirtyEight tracker was a net approval of -20.0 (57.0% disapprove, 37.0% approve).  FiveThirtyEight has presidential approval charts since Harry Truman (president from 1945-53). Biden’s final ratings are worse than for any other president who served four years or more at this stage of their presidency except Jimmy Carter.

FiveThirtyEight doesn’t yet have an aggregate for Trump’s approval, but most early Trump polls have him at net positive double digits. Trump’s favourable ratings have improved since the election, and he’s now at net -1.6 in FiveThirtyEight (48.2% unfavourable, 46.5% favourable).

The centre-left incumbent easily won the January 12 Croatian presidential runoff election, defeating his conservative opponent by a 74.7-25.3 margin. However, the conservatives won the April 2024 Croatian parliamentary election.

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