Two federal polls that reported this week:
• The monthly Essential Research poll recorded a recovery for Labor after a particularly bad result last time, up three on the primary vote to 29%, with the Coalition down four to 22%, One Nation up two to 25%, the Greens down one to 12% and undecided up one to 6%. Labor edged into a 48-46 lead over the Coalition on the pollster’s 2PP+ measure, after the Coalition led 50-45 last time. Anthony Albanese was up two on approval to 37% and down two on disapproval to 54%, while Angus Taylor was down one to 31% and up two on disapproval to 43%. The full report features extensive further questions on immigration (including a finding that general attitudes have improved since April, with 46% viewing it as generally positive and 39% as generally negative, up five and down six respectively), one on gambling, and another on (indirectly) Ed Sheeran. The poll was conducted last Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1008.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll breaks from the pollster’s recent practice in encompassing a fortnight of surveying, and presumably half consists of the result that was published last week, with an overall sample of 2569. The movements on last week’s result are duly more modest than Morgan’s recent form, which was presumably the idea: Labor up one to 26%, One Nation steady on 25.5%, the Coalition up one to 22.5% and the Greens down one to 14.5%. Labor’s respondent-allocated lead over One Nation is in from 54-46 to 53.5-46.5; against the Coalition, Labor is out from 52-48 to 52.5-47.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and steady on 52-48 on previous election flows. With its expanded sample, the release linked to above also treats us to full voting intention breakdowns from the mainland states.
nath at 11:29 pm
fuckin shortenites.
It wasn’t cruel, it was beautiful and necessary, like sharks.
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His ability to jump from being the architect of the NDIS (the biggest issues with which have always been and remain at its core its original design and legislation), to opposing every cost-saving measure as the opposition spokesman for the Scheme while accusing the Coalition for being hysterical for suggesting its cost was becoming unsustainable, to becoming its Minister again and overseeing spiralling growth in costs before cutting and running from Parliament just before those blow-outs really started to gain public heat, to then ending up on the Betoota podcast a couple of months accusing the previous government of running a profligate scheme, is so wonderfully and slimily self-serving that it actually gave me a wry smile when listening to the latter.
Diogenessays:
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 11:06 pm
I think raising the GST causes a single rise in inflation.
Then as everyone goes broke the balloon deflates.
So all good.
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It added about 3% over the year following it’s introduction. So yes, increasing it now would work its way through the economy quite rapidly, but there is no mining boom on the horizon to cushion the blow. It would spike unemployment, result in mortgage foreclosures at a level worse than 1991 and the treasury department would run out of red ink.
At least interest rates would follow the economy down the pit.
The idea is John Howard treasurer circa 1980 level stupid.
No mining boom? Commodities exports for the last financial year were about $390 billion. 2006 commodity exports were $210 billion. 1 dollar 2006 = 1.67 dollars 2026, so the value is actually higher today than 2006. It’s not a boom the same as 2006, but Australian commodities are still carrying the economy. We should be banking significant surpluses.
The Wombatsays:
Monday, October 5, 2026 at 12:12 am
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Do we mine wheat?
“We should be banking significant surpluses”
You must be a conservative? We’re one global shock away from a recession and you want the government sucking more money out of the economy?
Crazy shit man.
Actually, I’ll point out Jim Chalmers has repeatedly talked down the value of commodities to our economy, he did it again this week. It’s like it somehow pains him that mining and gas exports are driving the economy. Allowing for inflation, the value of our commodities exports now are more than 10% higher than John Howard had in 2006, yet it’s as if the ALP wants to hide the fact. They are happy to pocket the money, but it’s all a bit embarrassing, somehow.
I really struggle to understand the modern ALP’s odd relationship with mining, and obviously, it’s hurting them in the polls.
Fruit, this would be a useful article for you to read, so you can better understand the economy, abd why you might want to run a surplus to control inflation:
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-nowhere-economy-australia-now-faces-a-lost-decade-20261002-p611xw
The Wombatsays:
Monday, October 5, 2026 at 12:32 am
They are happy to pocket the money, but it’s all a bit embarrassing, somehow.
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But you want them pocketing more money to arrive at a ‘significant surplus’.
Will sucking a further $40 billion out of the economy be enough, do you think? The surplus would be healthy, but the economy would be a rotting carcass.
Howard convinced a lot of people that a surplus was indicative of competence. He was an inveterate liar too, so there is that.
Were the AFR ever this savage about the Liberals Lost Decade of Robodebt, ruined NBN, French Submarine Farce, Jobkeeper rorts, Sportsrorts, Car Park Rorts, Water Rorts, Choppergate, fake AEC signs, Helloworld, Prince Philip, trillion dollar debt, $400 mil to a shack on Kangaroo Island, $440 million to the useless Great Barrier Reef Foundation, 0 surpluses in a decade, 6% inflation, hidden energy prices and such a mismanaged economy that interest rates had to go from 0.1% to over 4% in about a year.
The Wombat says:
Monday, October 5, 2026 at 12:32 am
Actually, I’ll point out Jim Chalmers has repeatedly talked down the value of commodities to our economy, he did it again this week. It’s like it somehow pains him that mining and gas exports are driving the economy. Allowing for inflation, the value of our commodities exports now are more than 10% higher than John Howard had in 2006, yet it’s as if the ALP wants to hide the fact. They are happy to pocket the money, but it’s all a bit embarrassing, somehow.
I really struggle to understand the modern ALP’s odd relationship with mining, and obviously, it’s hurting them in the polls.
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Because mining is not driving the economy – capital expenditure in the sector is in maintenance mode, and sectoral revenue peaked in the final months of Scott Morrison’s government. As a share of GDP, it has fallen from about 15% five years ago to 11% now
https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-10/resources-and-energy-quarterly-september-2026.pdf
It is places like Canada which are looking to massively increase export capacity and production (oil to Asia and Europe).
If you want the political economy story, how could one possibly lay everything out in a way that satisfies any political audience?
-Labor stuck between a left flank screaming about gas taxes, while the USA and others are seriously talking about diesel export bans?
– A Greens party demanding gas policy settings that would almost certainly drive up domestic electricity prices?
– An LNP who took a half-baked gas reservation policy to an election, lost, then only to see their rivals put up a proper one within 12 months of the ballot dropping?
– And a One Nation party hoodwinking a nation with a pro-Gina policy that some people actually believe is “patriotic” policy?
Its complicated because it doesn’t all fit neatly into an easy media headline.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-nowhere-economy-australia-now-faces-a-lost-decade-20261002-p611xw
Also, Warren Hogan (heavily cited in the above article) is a source that struggles for credibility – intellectual death and destruction follows anywhere he travels.
Ghost Of Whitlam
The AFR wasn’t a big fan of the ATM government, but issues like Robodebt were outside the AFR’s target audience’s interest.
How about this instead?
Wombat.
Fuck inflation, and thanks for the condescension.
It occurs to me though, that those most interested in punishing the people who didn’t cause the inflation, are also the ones most responsible for, and also least affected by it.
New thread.
Been thinking about the failure for productivity to increase. Perhaps there are people being paid to much to do to little, people being paid biggley to tell us there is a productivity policy as an example.
In reference to Nicholas’ post.
If we have a productivity issues, ( fuel prices are not rising because of poor productivity) then we need to invest in resources that produce products. To invest in resources to produce products we must mobilize capital. Hard to see how making capital more expensive will encourage this.
I would argue money is expensive because a lot of it is being mobilized to build data centers and run wars. Hard to see how either activity will increase productivity.
Good morning, all.
We had our biggest single daily rainfall total for half a century plus the best natural sound and light show for the year over the weekend.
Zoe Daniel goes the full catastrophe in this article. Hanrahan is not in the race.
Her immediate fix is more tax on fossil fuels, gambling and big tech. She would spend this on more childcare, etc, etc, etc and… fixing potholes.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/oct/04/australia-government-cost-of-living-wealth-gap
Retail diesel still at around $2.90 around here.
Q. Which person yelled ‘F**k you!’ at which rich old white arrogant male?
A. ?
Pauline Hanson yearns to turn Australia into Argentina
The sloan zone talking about the greens opposing military aid to Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=komexHFi5aw