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Election night commentary
8:39pm. If you’re enjoying the coverage, please consider rewarding all the hard work that goes into my results system (and everything else) with a donation through the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the page and the bottom of the post.
8:29pm. Presumably because the ABC has switched off booth-matching and is now reporting the raw TCP as its projection. My own system tries to do something more elaborate with non-booth vote types.
8:22pm. The ABC’s estimate now aligns with my own in giving One Nation a margin of about 3%.
8:19pm. As ever, one remaining wild card: many thousands of early votes still to come. Though a lot of anecdotal evidence to suggest Labor won’t do particularly well out of them.
8:10pm. I note that my system’s projection is very close to the raw TCP result, whereas the ABC earlier projection of the One Nation margin has come down only modestly — 2.7% raw, 2.8% from me, 6.5% at the ABC. Despite what my projection says, Labor wouldn’t be conceding quite yet, but it’s undoubtedly not looking good for them.
8:09pm. There are now five booths in on TCP, and contrary to what I said two updates ago, that 60-40 split in favour of Labor is sticking.
8:03pm. Six booths in now on the primary vote, and the more recent ones have been even worse for Labor than the earlier ones. Nothing further on TCP though.
7:56pm. I suspect that 60% flow of preferences to Labor will fade as more results come in: a big component of it is Port Kennedy Primary School, which was a particularly strong result for the Greens relative to the Liberals.
7:56pm. My system is still calling a One Nation win, but the margin has been slashed, and prima facie the call looks too aggressive for my tastes.
7:52pm. The preference flow is a surprise: 60-40 in favour of Labor. With the next update my system should start using that flow instead of an estimate that was going nearly 55-45 the other way, and there’s a good chance my call of a One Nation win will be retracted.
7:48pm. The WAEC has released the hounds on the TCP count, which it is correctly conducting on a Labor-versus-One Nation basis.
7:47pm. A second batch of postals has been added, the total thereof being up from 1277 to 2597, and it does nothing to change the picture.
7:40pm. There is a consistent picture of a 20% drop in the Labor vote. The One Nation swings are more uneven — the mobile result is the big outlier, probably because it’s attending different places from last time.
7:37pm. It’s all happening now: my 90% ceiling is off and the call for a One Nation win is back on. That’s with a projected margin of 7.7%, which is a lot gentler for Labor than the ABC’s 10.5%. Both of us are applying speculative preference flow estimates, and there are lots of things we might be doing differently in terms of getting swings out of the postals.
7:36pm. I just slapped an arbitrary 90% ceiling on the One Nation probability, just in time for the first polling booth to report from Port Kennedy Primary School, which turns out to be consistent with the impression of One Nation leading on the primary vote and therefore very likely to win.
7:34pm. No, these are “mobile polling” results — I think the WAEC temporarily added them to the wrong row. My point still stands: I will want to see some polling booth results before I have confidence in my projections.
7:31pm. The Western Australian Electoral Commission booth is on. My system is calling it, but I wish it wasn’t — neither of the two results that are in are easy to match to the last election. Uniquely, this booth wasn’t in operation at all then, so I just allocated it 5% of the absent votes cast in 2025 for booth-matching purposes.
7:24pm. My preference flow estimates are more bullish for One Nation than the ABC’s — they’ve got the margin at 6.9%, I’ve got 8.7%.
7:16pm. We finally have results: a batch of 1277 postals, which are hard to booth-match with, so I’d add a note of caution to my projections. Early batches tend to be more conservative but my swing calculation doesn’t accommodate that — Labor had better hope that that’s what’s causing my projection of One Nation winning by an 8.7% margin.
6pm. Polls have closed for Western Australia’s Secret Harbour by-election. As always, the best place to follow the results as they come in is through this site’s second-to-none results facility (see link above), featuring swings, projections and probability estimates, a table recording results and swings at booth level, and – when you press the “activate” button at the bottom of the page – a map display that does likewise. I presume the Western Australian Electoral Commission will be conducting a notional two-candidate count between Labor and One Nation, despite what the relevant table on my results page shows. However, I believe that will be in the realms of mystery until they start publishing results from it, which the WAEC uniquely does not do until it’s convinced it has picked the right two candidates. With 16 candidates, first results could be a while coming.
pied piper I mean congratulations for getting a seat of a nearly 10 year old government hey didn’t you said during the Northern Territory in Queensland elections that when the liberals won that the federal government’s going to be Liberal Party I mean but hey also maybe the guys probably gonna go to Liberals in in a couple of months
Given statewide polling WA Labor should have done better.
Over before the footy, wasn’t expecting that
Gorks: I would probably chalk it up to an uninspiring candidate combined with a general “kick the government up the backside without risk of breaking everything by changing the government overall” sense that arises in by-elections. Regardless of the outcome.
Also, a One Nation MLA will be an entertaining shitshow I guess.
Gorks honestly considering how long labors being a government for in Western Australia I’m actually not surprised if it wasn’t one nation it probably would have been the liberals so I think labour has no problem losing a seat
Okay it’s a by-election but if a good government is getting this wrack, Victorian Labor must be terrified at what’s coming for it in November.
First TCP Count in.
Is PHON and ALP.
PHON – 51.45%
ALP – 48.55%
Yeah look to be honest I am coming around to the idea that 3 or at most 4 term governments are really up against it and it seems to be the limit for how long a government can stay in power in western world before the it’s time factor kicks in, especially with same federal party in power.
Three booths now. Orange team wins.
I’m not sure a good government does get a 20% swing against it, let alone to one nation.
Landlord of the Year honestly a government that’s nearly 10 years old yeah I wouldn’t be surprised if they they lose a seat or two to send a message to do better.Gorks I mean look at Queensland Labor was in charge for nearly 10 years and got kicked out so yeah it’s probably is the time Factor also what one poster said it can send a message with out destroying the government through I do think people also need to realize that state results don’t reflect federal results because if they did well Labor would have gotten power in 2019
Stop press: the first TCP results show a surprisingly strong preference flow for Labor.
The right wing minor vote is going straight to One Nation along with swings against both “majors”
Formal Votes: 4,834
Informal Votes: 171
Total Votes: 5,005
First Prefs.
PHON 34.46%
ALP 25.96%
LIB 17.09%
GRN 8.67%
LCWA 4.84%
We already had a Werribee by election with similar big drops for Vic Labor, at around similar point in political cycle. Probably got lucky there was no ON surge then.
Libs in other seats against One nation will not lay dead like a Egyptian mummy.
Hastie has a swap or headache coming.
WeWantPaul will the government’s been empowered for nearly 10 years so you know I would not be surprised during the Western Australia election labour lose I mean s*** you know we long term labour government is ACT but that’s probably because the liberals keep shooting themselves in the foot there.Gorks yeah there’s the point where a government goes past its used by date it might not make sense but honestly I do think around 10 years seems normal
@WB: We saw something similar in neighbouring Mandurah at the 2025 state election – with incumbent MLA Templeman retiring, his personal vote scattered, and the ALP primary tanked over 20%… but the swing after preferences was not as harsh (under 15%), with a chunk of that lost primary coming back to the ALP on preferences.
You would expect a long term to fade over time, sure of course. But these guys have done it laregly inside this term, so in a few years. They were an 8 year old govt that slaughtered just two years ago. So it is not a long term decline, it is a cliff.
A big question that this election will help answer is what does the flow of Lib preferences look like in an ALP vs ONP contest in outer suburban WA. Will it be more favourable than the flow of ONP preferences had previously been in ALP vs LIB contests, and if so, by how much?
Presumably too the strong preference to labor, well at least the surprising bit must be from the libs yeah?
Now the small EC early voting comes through. 61 votes. Nothing to note with numbers compared to last update.
Looks like 5 election day venues, the main prepoll to come. Maybe or maybe not any more postals tonight.
We want Paul you do realize Western Australia Labor got in 2017 right so by the time the 2029 election comes there’ll be at 12 year government nearly I think you got the dates confused
WeWantPaulsays:
Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 9:51 pm
I’m not sure a good government does get a 20% swing against it, let alone to one nation.
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The DemosAU poll the other day can probably be discarded.
21.8% primary swing against Labor. This is terrible in anyone’s books.
Carlton 67-55
Soo.. unfair.
Are people in Australia MAGAfied even after seeing what is happening in US.
Maybe two more election day venues?
Formal Votes: 6,986
Informal Votes: 277
Total Votes: 7,263
First Prefs.
PHON 35.46%
ALP 24.95%
LIB 17.79%
GRN 8.62%
LCWA 4.22%
nadia I do think it’s probably because of how long Western Australian Labour’s been in power so I wouldn’t be surprised it’s lose the seat or two but what’s surprising me is how close it is first party preferred does seem like if one nation doesn’t do good in that seat it probably go back to labour
Kevin’s uncalled it as well
Preference flows hey
One nation yet to lose anything yet .Wow.
2 unfair results today in Australia.
Thoughts on implications for Victoria and NSW? I’m figuring it’s got bigger implications for NSW, where One Nation is a bit better organised and the Coalition in bigger trouble.
Stick a fork in it, she’s done. Government has been delivered a boot to the backside for sure.
HBG – It’s over.
Labor is about to slip below 25% (in a dead red seat).
The DemosAU poll was a “lemon”.
pied piper I mean they’re probably going to lose that seat they want in Parliament this year off the liberals to to the guy realise in one Nations insane and actually cares for his constituents
Formal Votes: 7,736
Informal Votes: 315
Total Votes: 8,051
PHON 35.37%
ALP 24.84%
LIB 17.70%
Looks like 2 polling places left, the main prepoll and any additional postals.
TCP (not to the same vote totals as above)
PHON 52.74%
ALP 47.26%
Preference flows 60/40 to Labor but yep, a lot of ground to make up on primary
Looks like a transcription error in the results screen, exactly the same primaries in Singleton PS and Secret Harbour PS, which I doubt actually happened.
Quentin Rountree says:
Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 10:04 pm
nadia I do think it’s probably because of how long Western Australian Labour’s been in power so I wouldn’t be surprised it’s lose the seat or two but what’s surprising me is how close it is first party preferred does seem like if one nation doesn’t do good in that seat it probably go back to labour
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QR – I think what might have caused problems was the PM and his comment about “WA receiving a fair share of the GST”. This was allowed to run for the first six days of pre-poll until the PM turned up in Perth and confirmed there would be no change to GST allocations.
The term “fair share” raised alarm bells in W.A.
The thing is that since most people who were alive in the last century when the Nazis tried to do their thing have since passed away that there’s enough assholes around to just vote them back in and have another go without having to listen to their elders that went through this the first time.
A lot of people are happy for this to happen. So yeah. Be prepared for more whimpering weakness from Labor while the nazis come back in force. And this time the nazis will be speaking English as well as German. And probably French as well when Marine Le Pen gets elected next year.
Semi-rural white bogans voting against their own interest because they enjoy a bit of racism and voting for the lulz as the kids say, in a by-election that doesn’t matter.
Won’t be repeated in a real election.
John Howard and the LNP should never be forgiven for bringing Pauline Hanson into Australian politics.
Post removed due to possible transposition error as noted above.
Edit – Numbers now seemingly corrected. If anyone from the EC sees this, you should follow this up, there’s been a couple of sets of figures not quite right at the first appearance tonight.
Formal Votes: 8,929
Informal Votes: 380
Total Votes: 9,309
PHON 35.83%
LAB 24.56%
LIB 17.39%
Bit surprised at how much the Labor primary vote has fallen and the Liberal party vote seems to have held up a bit better than I would have expected. Clearly this is a pretty savage rebuke of current government performance even when taking into account the tendency of voters to send a stronger message to governments in by-elections.
In 2017 I knocked doors, I handed out how to votes, don’t think I scrutineered but I was very much involved.
Although I was wrong, while the 2025 ‘landslide’ stuck in my mind I had forgotten they shed 18.5% on first preference and 12.5 tpp. So the steep descent had commenced in that 2021 term and looks set to keep that crash trajectory, if this is a faithful guide.
Hard to adjust for magic mark’s cave boost and understand 2021 although, perhaps I had decided 2025 was largely down to that.
I still don’t buy long term as a better explanation than bad government though.
One trick pony One nation.Immigration and i forgot trump proxy.
So Labor hang tough with ya population Ponzi scheme as you cannot now boot on mass as you have cooked the housing market already.
Own goal.
Victoria will be one for the ages.
Results from Singleton have been corrected, now we really only have Coastal Lakes and prepoll to come (plus any extra postals).
Very poor candidate selection from Labor, a lobbyist for Woodside. Seriously lol
I know they run the government over there but that’s a bit too much
@HBG: Beyond her being a Woodside lobbyist, which mostly only Greenies care about, she was just pretty uninspiring in general to listen to, and being very much not local cost her, as did the perception (accurate or not) that she was being silenced on the campaign trail by the Labor head office. A poor candidate selection, and a poor campaign around her.
Secret Harbour is 95% white. The only forriners in the region with more a triple digit or more presence are white Scots & Poms, Afrikaaners and New Zealanders. It has only a tiny amount of Indigenous presence.
People voting ON in this area because of migration have no legitimate reason for it except ladder pulling and racism.
I wonder if her being a woodside lobbyist is only a Green issue.
Obviously the woodside part is, but otherwise to many people she would just be seen as a blow-in with no life experience.
TCP (not accounting for all first prefs so far)
PHON 53.22%
ALP 46.78%
There’s only one polling place left for first preference votes. The collapse of election day attendance voting continues. This should have implications for EC’s.