At the end of every second month, this site makes an appeal to readers for the donations that keep the lights on and the wolf from the door, and further takes the opportunity to advertise its wares, both present and future. Even without taking an imminent South Australian election into account, it’s been an extraordinarily busy time for the blog, partly owing to a One Nation-fuelled explosion in polling activity. I’ve lost count of how many federal and state polls there have been in the past week alone, but it’s solidly into double figures, a rate of activity normally associated only with federal election campaigns.
This has been reflected in the fact that 21 posts have been published on the blog in February alone, not counting this one. Nor has this entirely been a matter of simply relating poll results, though to be sure there has been a fair deal of that – readers have been kept regularly updated on the Liberal leadership change and looming by-elections federally and in Victoria (there’s also one Saturday week in Northern Territory which I can’t honestly claim to have had much to say about that, but that will be rectified next week). The March 21 election for South Australia has not been neglected in the frenzy, with regular posts supplemented by regular and ongoing maintenance work on the election guide.
The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been reupholstered to the extent that the poll data repository now features an even wider array of poll breakdowns before. Click the “more” tab at the top right enough times and you will see all the published data that exists on current voting intention by vote at the 2025 election, which among other things offers insights into the immensely significant question of where exactly the explosion in support for One Nation is coming from. Further reupholstering will be required to accommodate a fresh set of leadership rating trends for the new Liberal leader, so do stay tuned for that.
The highlight of the month to come will of course be the state election in South Australia, and as is now usual, this site will feature its second-to-none live results facility. This acquires new layers of sophistication every time it is put through its paces, with the focus this time being a new approach for calculating win probabilities that will result in seats being called more promptly without (I promise) any sacrifice in accuracy. The emergence of One Nation as a major player looks set to make this a more challenging endeavour than ever, but the system’s three-candidate prediction model makes it well equipped for the challenge.
In short, an immense number of work hours are going into the site at the moment, and in the total absence of advertising, it’s only by the grace of readers’ generosity that they are rewarded with anything more than satisfaction in a job well done, invaluable as that may be. These can be made by clicking on the “become a supporter” buttons at the top of the page and the bottom of each post.
