A new poll by DemosAU finds state Labor in New South Wales, which appeared to be struggling in the polls until at least up to the May federal election, recording a blowout two-party lead of 59-41, from primary votes of Labor 37%, Coalition 30% and Greens 13%. Various demographic breakdowns are featured in the full report. Chris Minns holds a 44-25 lead over Mark Speakman as preferred premier. As in the Queensland poll earlier this week, the poll finds cost of living and housing affordability by far the most salient issues. We are also treated to a result on upper house voting intention which has One Nation at a formidable 15%, with Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 21% and the Greens on 13%. The poll was conducted October 16 to 22 from a sample of 1016.
Also on the NSW state politics front:
• The Daily Telegraph’s The Sauce column reports Mark Hodges, the Liberal member for Castle Hill, faces as many as three preselection challengers, among them Peter Gangemi, former Hills Shire mayor. Columnist James O’Doherty cites “faction bosses” saying Hodges “was never going to be around long-term”, having emerged as the sole preselection nominee ahead of the 2023 election after the party’s candidate vetting committee blocked presumed front-runner Noel McCoy.
• Also courtesy of The Sauce, talk of two further challenges against sitting Liberals: Miranda MP Eleni Petinos faces former federal Hughes MP Jenny Ware, a circumstance Petinos reportedly blames on deputy leader Natalie Ward; and an unspecified challenger has emerged to North Shore MP Felicity Wilson, who survived by one vote against a challenge in 2018 from now Willoughby MP Tim James.
• In a report on Local Government Minister Ron Hoenig’s alleged involvement in an Office of Local Government inquiry process to aid the council preselection of former Bayside mayor Bill Saravinovski, Max Maddison of the Sydney Morning Herald relates expectations Steve Kamper will retire from his seat of Rockdale at the next election and be succeeded by his chief-of-staff, current Bayside mayor Ed McDougall.
Liberals need to be liberals not labor lite which is the soft option.
Once nation reaps the rewards of the above around Australia.
Just reading the report to see where this “One Nation” vote is banked up.
Must be rural NSW. This must be killing the Nats & Regional Libs if true.
Uni educated voters now supporting Labor at a 45% primary. (63 on the 2PP).
It’s like Oz is following the path of the U.S. where higher educated people are voting Dems, and lower educated now voting the Repubs.
Quite a reversal in “brand loyalty”. Used to be the other way around!
Have to say, I really like the demographic breakdowns that Demos AU provide with their reports.
Very thorough polling.
Don’t know how long they’ve been around for, but they are a good read.
They’ve dropped a few State based polls recently. I reckon a National poll must be on the horizon.
Yes that is an interesting report from demos. Even the 55+ age group broke 50% for labor and everyone else taking the scraps, and highest income bracket too.
I have Minns down as a latter day Wran though with less charisma, but like Wran seems to know where the bullseye is in NSW politics and how to hit it- and the fact that Albo is also doing well can’t be hurting.
Such a change, and welcome one, from the Carr-Iemma-Rees-Kenneally mess and I scarcely hear from any ministry or backbench where the sorts of troubles that government had were breaking out.
Corleone @ #4 Wednesday, October 29th, 2025 – 7:12 pm
Yeah that’s a good point, Wran barely got over the line in 1976, it was only a few votes in Gosford and Hurstville that settled the matter, then came the first Wranslide in 1978 that wiped out a lot of Liberals, including the opposition leader himself, Peter Coleman.
Key update:
Definitely True 10
Probably True 1
Probably False 2
Definitely False 1
7 false keys for opposition 2PP win.
If it was today:
Definitely True 10
Probably True 1
Probably False 2
Definitely False 1
I’m surprised they found 25 points of people who know who Mark Speakman is.
Greens gender breakdown: females – 17% ; males – 9%
18 – 34 yo: Labor 29% ; Coalition 26% ; Greens 26%
Pegasus,
Yes young women are very drawn to the Greens.
There was a poll a couple of months back which had the Greens vote amongst 18-24 year old women at 59%, but WB said it was a low sample poll.
17% for women overall is about on the mark.
As for people aged 18-34, the Greens are about to overtake the LNP and breathing down the neck of the ALP.
Will be interesting in the years to come to see whether the “Green” vote splinters off once they turn 30 or so, as it has done with previous generation groups.
The current 18-34 age group are majority Gen Z, with some younger millennials still tucked away in there.
Pegasus – side issue {& probably wrong thread}, but if you have time…
Do you know much about this Zac Polanski character in the U.K? {The Greens Leader, England & Wales}
What is driving up the Green vote in the U.K, in your opinion?
Viewed from afar my reading about the Minns government can only lead me to the conclusion that the NSW Liberals must be worse than diabolical.
I have a thing about gambling reform and Minns and Albanese are certainly on the same page there.
It’s a blank page.
Some of this collapse in the Liberal vote has to be the federal situation bleeding into the state vote. The opposition is not doing great in NSW but it is not as dire as South Australia or Western Australia which is what this is suggesting.
Chris Minns is a steady sort of nice bloke Premier who communicates well in the media, and has some proven good ministers in his government, especially Ryan Park and John Graham and Penny Sharp. And while you’d expect the Daily Telegraph and 2GB to be largely supportive of the Liberals, they still give Minns a good run in the media cycle – for example, Minns has a regular gig once a week on Ben Fordham’s 2GB breakfast radio program.
In comparison, Mark Speakman is fairly invisible, I doubt most voters in NSW would know who the leader of the state opposition is. And he regularly has Alistair Henskens breathing down his neck and leaking against him to the media.
After the Essential Report’s National
Poll, the DemosAU QLD state poll and the DemosAU NSW state poll for the Upper House (all released yesterday)
it is now apparent the One Nation primary vote (no longer PHON as Pauline Hanson has removed her name) is at the 15% nationwide.
The DemosAU QLD State poll also provided the first direct evidence One Nation is taking voters from both the LNP and Labor. The terrible inflation data released yesterday along with the increase in unemployment will fuel discontent with Labor.
I don’t believe it is beyond the realms of possibility the One Nation primary vote will be in the range of 17%-19% by this Christmas 2025.
There is a battle in the NSW Liberal Party between the Moderates and the Religious Right. It’s just not as obvious as it is in Victoria.
As the NSW people are intelligent, compassionate and sophisticated, as the recent federal election proved in the main for the Australian people as a whole, they are seeing fights in the NSW Liberals, like the current one over Voluntary Assisted Dying, where some in the Liberal Party are pushing to allow church-owned aged care facilities to be able to turf out the elderly who receive permission to end their lives voluntarily.
It’s actions such as this, also being seen to be siding with and working with Mark Latham, and the leadership rumblings where the ultra conservative faction want to replace Moderate Mark Speakman with one of their own, probably Alister Henskens, that are likely contributing to their being marked down.
>Will be interesting in the years to come to see whether the “Green” vote splinters off once they turn 30 or so, as it has done with previous generation groups.
Is age what makes the vote splinter or owning more assets (which is a byproduct of age)?
Can Speakman survive his party’s killing season?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/can-speakman-survive-his-party-s-killing-season-20251029-p5n660.html
@catprog – it’s homeownership. At the end of the day most of us are pretty selfish. Now that homeownership is not possible for an increasing proportion, the shift is not happening quite so readily.
It’s greed. And i say that as a middle aged green voting homeowner.
There are two major groupings within the greens, both as passionate. The inner city renters and the tree changers. It makes for an interesting dynamic. Unlike other parties though, they have one uniting passion, the health of the planet.
“I don’t believe it is beyond the realms of possibility the One Nation primary vote will be in the range of 17%-19% by this Christmas 2025.”
Perhaps. It’s protest vote being parked with an entity on angry vibes rather than policies, and it is currently higher than usual because the Libs are a rabble and the rest of the lunar right has more or less disintegrated and that vote has coalesced with One Nation. Every time any scrutiny is actually applied to Hanson’s mob they fall apart, and even without that we could see at the last election how One Nation didn’t live up to the polling. The number at Christmas 2025 isn’t very material.
Meanwhile, I can’t help but think that Hanson removing her name from the party is a first step to her retiring in favour of Joyce no matter how much she denies it in public. One Barnyard. Vibes terrible.
Arky-Yes. She has said she will stand at the next election (which based on current polling and the polling One Nation received at the May 2025 election in Qld) is a 100% certainty to be re-elected. She has indicated she will look to retire and handover to a new leader sometime after the next election.
I don’t agree this growth in support for One Nation can be explained away as a protest vote. I believe there is a deeper discontent with the Establishment Parties (LNP, Labor,Greens) and a permanent re-alignment is occurring within the Australian electorate. The fact that party membership of One Nation has increased by more than 100% since the May 2025 election (and appears to be increasing on a daily basis) and all polls at both a national and various state levels are displaying very large surges to One Nation indicate something fundamental is occurring within the Australian electorate.
The major establishment parties are not polling very well. Labor on approx 35-36% primary vote is atrocious and the LNP on 26-28% is worse than atrocious. The Greens appear to be slowly disappearing into irrelevance.
The SA State election in March, the VIC state election in November and the NSW state election in March 2027 will provide actual voting data on the level of popular support for One Nation.
Liberal seats Labor could win in March 2027 – Ryde, Winston Hills, Terrigal, Holsworthy, Seven Hills.
The only current Labor seats I’d worry about Minns holding on to would be Penrith, Camden and Bega.
Lismore will stay in Labor hands as long as Janelle Saffin stays in politics – a relative of mine lives in that area, and according to her, Saffin is a rock star up there, even with people who vote for the Nationals federally.
Democracy Sausage @ #21 Thursday, October 30th, 2025 – 3:12 pm
Bega? Labor holds that by about 60-40. Has there been some scandal there? I don’t know how they’d lose it otherwise.
Other seats I’d like to see flipped are Tweed and Upper Hunter, but the Nationals just can’t seem to be defeated there.
I’d say Labour would have a shot in Oatley.
”
B. S. Fairmansays:
Wednesday, October 29, 2025 at 9:39 pm
Some of this collapse in the Liberal vote has to be the federal situation bleeding into the state vote. The opposition is not doing great in NSW but it is not as dire as South Australia or Western Australia which is what this is suggesting.
”
Agree BSF.
As Gerard Henderson once said about 17 years ago, L-NP doesn’t do well in opposition and doesn’t operate as effective opposition.
They were disciplined in opposition when NSW Labor was really bad during Rees-KK governments.
It seems like it’s a storm in a Tory teacup about Rachel Reeves:
Tories say Starmer should sack Reeves for breaking law and breaking ministerial code
The Conservative have said Keir Starmer should sack Rachel Reeves. A Tory spokesperson said:
Rachel Reeves has broken the law and broken the ministerial code, but Keir Starmer is too weak to sack her.
While the chancellor is planning tax hikes for millions of families across the country at the budget, it’s one rule for the chancellor and another for everyone else.
Keir Starmer pledged to restore integrity to politics, but now he’s laughing in the face of the British public.
He should grow a backbone and sack the chancellor now. This is not over.
Kemi Badenoch and Mel Stride are speaking at an outdoor rally/press event on the south bank in London.
Stride, the shadow chancellor, is speaking now. He says Labour has broken its promises on tax and that’s “disgraceful”. He specifically refers to inheritance tax being extended to farms, which is something the party had previously ruled out.
Within the last hour, she has posted a message on social media saying that, if Rachel Reeves puts up taxes in the budget, she will have to resign.
Rachel Reeves promised “no more tax increases”. That now looks like a lie.
If she puts up tax, Starmer must sack her.
This is confusing, given that the party is already saying Reeves should be sacked over the rental licence error. (See 8.42am.) If they think she is not fit to be chancellor now, it seems odd to be saying that she should also have to resign over a hypothetical decision happening in a month’s time.
The facts wrt what the Tories are squawking about:
No 10 releases letters from Reeves and Starmer about chancellor inadvertently renting home with necessary licence:
Good morning. Ministers often complain about Whitehall being slow and inefficient, but last night the government’s ethical standards machinery settled a misconduct allegation in record time. After the Daily Mail revealed that Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, had inadvertently rented out her south London home without requiring the specific licence required by the council, before midnight Downing Street had already released an exchange of letters on the issue between Reeves and Keir Starmer.
Reeves apologised for the mistake. Her spokesperson has said that the letting agency she used told her a licence was not needed.
And Starmer said that he had already consulted his ethics adviser, Sir Laurie Magnus, who had advised that, in the light of Reeves’s apology and her willingess to rectify the situation, no further action was needed.
So, from Downing Street’s perspective, the whole thing was sorted before the Mail’s final edition went to press.
In many European countries, this would not even come close to registering as a scandal and it would all be swifty forgotten. But, with a censorious media, and papers like the Mail actively hostile to Labour, Starmer and Reeves are unlikely to shut down the story quite that easily. Starmer is also open to the accusation of double standards. In other cases where ministers have been accused of breaching the ministerial code of conduct, he has taken a strict approach to enforcing the rules. Angela Rayner also inadvertently failed to comply with the relevant legislation in relation to a housing matter, and that led to her having to resign.’
(The Guardian)
Re Terrigal,
Labor will be putting up the same candidate who came within 500 votes, with no financial support from head office last time, of snatching the seat from the Liberals. That is, Sam Boughton.
Freedom,
One Nation is a grievance party. Pauline’s party is not a serious party. They are not a party of government. They have zero economic credibility. Their foreign policy is slavish to America and unsophisticated. They want to have a laissez faire approach to gun ownership. What are their Education, Defence, Aged Care, Disability Care, Industrial Relations policies? Until they spell them out they’re just not a serious alternative.
I think Sally Quinnell will hold Camden for Labor comfortably. The problem for the Liberals is that the One Nation vote will increase and there will always be a greater leakage of former Liberal votes going to exhaust under OPV than former Labor voters. Quinnell also has sophomore effect at her back. Expect at worst a flat Labor Primary but increase in the 2PP margin.
My smoky again is Lane Cove. It is now fully within a Federal electorate held by Labor. Expect a further material drop in the Liberal Primary
Does Optional Preferential voting in both NSW and Qld imply those 2 state elections are essentially a first past the post electoral system? I remember reading a while ago the number of voters using preferences had declined in NSW to less than 20%. Is that correct?
@ High Street, Thursday, October 30, 2025 at 10:19 pm.
Lane Cove also is a Labor held LGA. Ryde will almost certainly go to Labor. The candidate has had a real job with real life experience, unlike the kid that holds the seat now. Never had a proper job and argue like he’s still at school or university.
>Freedom says:
>Friday, October 31, 2025 at 6:23 am
>Does Optional Preferential voting in both NSW and Qld imply those 2 state elections are essentially a first past the post electoral system?
Isn’t qld at a state level currently Full Preferential?
Catprogsays:
Friday, October 31, 2025 at 9:01 am
>Freedom says:
>Friday, October 31, 2025 at 6:23 am
Isn’t qld at a state level currently Full Preferential?
====================================
LNP in Qld have stated their intention to introduce Optional Preferential voting.
It remains to be seen whether they will actually implement it.
I assume it will depend on whether they believe it will help or hinder their re-election at the next election. I don’t think they think beyond that.
Given the sharp rise in the One Nation vote and the potential for those votes to exhaust rather than come back to LNP, they may be having second thoughts.
Cat, who cares about policies? They are against all the blacks and asians and Indians taking things from true Aussies. I dare you to visit Facebook (take a Valium first)
I think my own electorate of Newcastle could be vulnerable to an independent challenge, if the ALP puts up Tim Crakanthorp again. He was quickly sacked by Minns as Minister for the Hunter when it came to light he had failed to disclose his family owned around 50 properties in Newcastle, including many which stood to benefit from inclusion in the Broadmeadows redevelopment zone. Newcastle has some history of electing independents, including an independent mayor at the last council election. I certainly won’t be voting for Crakanthorp again. The ALP should do the right thing and dump him.
C@tmomma @ 8.20pm.
It would be wonderful if Sam Boughton can better his fantastic effort from 2023.
This part of the Central Coast hasn’t had a decent member since 1988, when the unlamented Brian McGowan managed to achieve the unbelievable and single handedly lost 2 seats at the same election: Gosford & The Entrance.
The only creditable thing which McGowan achieved was being elected in May, 1976 to allow Neville Wran to form Government.
It would be great to see the return of an ALP member representing North Avoca.
The Minns government needs to pass urgent laws preventing trick or treating before 5 pm
I think treat or treating is going to be stormed off in Sydney tonight – thankfully
Tozzer says:
Friday, October 31, 2025 at 1:25 pm
Cat, who cares about policies? They are against all the blacks and asians and Indians taking things from true Aussies. I dare you to visit Facebook (take a Valium first)
Tozzer,
There’s an ad on the dance music radio station I listen to, and it goes like this:
Announcer: ‘You can find us on facebook at …
Young person: ‘Facebook! My grandpa’s on facebook!!!’
And I know this to be true because my parents are on facebook-the disappearing generation. I only go to Facebook Marketplace. And my Millennial son has contempt for facebook, except for Marketplace.
It truly has become the redoubt of the biased, bigoted and embittered about the changing face of our multicultural nation and world. It’s too late to change it back now but people on facebook are damn well going to complain about it until their last breath.
Of course, I left out the young Nazis, who are just old people in young bodies. 😉
One Nation will opportunistically harvest their votes and they will probably have a surge at a national level as the demographic wave of their support surges, and then dies off for the most part. Even Pauline herself is over 70 now. However, in the NSW context I don’t think that support will translate. The Minns Labor government will just point to Mark Latham, Tania Mihailuk and Rod Roberts and tell the voters that’s what you get when you vote One Nation in NSW. Not the best advertising for the party. And anyway, Chris Minns has done a good job.
MaccaRB@3:41pm,
I live down the hill from Albo in the Socialist Republic of Copacabana (no sea view for us) and during a coffee-slop at the surf club, even I can sense a feeling for change from the toffs up the hill. Unlike me, they managed to finish their coffee-slop, so it’s an omen! Psst – the cafe over the road serves a nicer brew.
@Algernon says: Friday, October 31, 2025 at 8:24 am
“Lane Cove also is a Labor held LGA. Ryde will almost certainly go to Labor. The candidate has had a real job with real life experience, unlike the kid that holds the seat now. Never had a proper job and argue like he’s still at school or university.”
~~~~~~~~~~~~
I’ve heard that Jordan Lane has a decently popular within Ryde, which may help him get re-elected despite winning the seat on a 0.1% margin. However the current polling will be able to overpower Lane’s personal vote and have Labor win the seat (as seen with a couple of popular Liberal incumbents in the Federal election like Bridget Archer and David Coleman). Although it should be mentioned that it’s too early to tell, polling could change between now and 2027.
Halfback @ 7.23am (Saturday)
Prior to building our house at Nth Avoca, we had the pleasure of living in the Socialist Paradise of Copacabana for four years I the early 80s.
A fabulous four years n a wonderful community.
We were off Helen Dr, in a little cottage, with a view of the beach and the Point.
Halfback @ 7.23am
Do they still have the locals only Bar-be-cue at the Surf Club on a sunday night?
Referring back to my earlier comments – yeah, I should have remembered that Bega at present is held for Labor by one of the local doctors in that area, and by all accounts, he’s a great local MP. The Premier was in that neck of the woods a few weeks ago.
Someone earlier on mentioned the seat of Lane Cove as a possible Labor gain in 2027 – based at least on the federal election results in that part of the Bennelong electorate, definitely.
Terrigal – I remember the Labor candidate in 2023 being well ahead on election night but being swamped by the postals and pre polls that went heavily to the incumbant Liberal MP. As C@t said, Labor head office gave that campaign no resources whatsoever, ditto happened in the federal election for the seat of Hughes yet David Moncrieff through sheer hard work and a lot of door knocking won an unexpected victory for Team Albanese.
Macca RB says:
Sunday, November 2, 2025 at 6:09 am
Halfback @ 7.23am (Saturday)
Prior to building our house at Nth Avoca
———-
Haha!
We live in an inverse world!!
These days to be “leftwing”, you’ve gotta have a house at Avoca, more than £5 million, and consider a burka (for women only) is supa chic!!
Fwee Fwee Pawistine!!!!
https://michaelwest.com.au/chris-minns-pepper-spray-for-peace-protestors-one-day-lunch-at-war-crimes-lobby-the-next/ …