I’ve been too consumed by the minutiae of the count to have accumulated any deep thoughts about the result, or even the polls. But I can recommend the assessment of Matthew Knott of Nine Newspapers, for identifying the relevance of Nate Silver’s axiom that “almost all polling errors occur in the opposite direction to commentators’ predictions”. A case in point being my own instinct that Labor couldn’t possibly doing as well as as BludgerTrack’s end-of-campaign reading of the situation, which gave Labor a lead of 53.2-47.8. My own projection of the national result currently has it at 54.2-45.8, but this is generally reckoned (in both senses) too conservative — a display at The Guardian appears to have it at around 54.6-45.4. On either reading, this is Labor’s best result since 1943, and was exceeded in this time by the Coalition only in 1966 and 1975. The primary vote, of course, is another matter — Labor’s currently stands at 34.7%, compared with BludgerTrack’s 32.6%; the Coalition is at 32.2%, by far the worst result in its modern history, compared with BludgerTrack’s 32.9%; while the Greens and One Nation are at 11.8% and 6.3%, compared with BludgerTrack’s 12.5% and 8.0%.
Not everyone agrees with me about this, but I don’t think it can reasonably be described as any sort of failure on the part of the Australian polling industry. In dismissing the notion that even its 2019 performance counted as such, Nate Silver pointed out that its roughly 3% error was exactly normal by international standards — though this rather glossed over the extent to which the industry’s failure on that occasion lay in the herding-related uniformity in the size and direction of its error. There were at least a few suspicions abroad that something similar was happening this time, and a general reluctance to believe what some polls were seeing — including some mid-campaign blowouts from Roy Morgan that were hardly credited by anyone at the time, but which proved about on the money — may have helped prevent polls and their aggregates from landing nearer the mark.
As it stands, the measure of any given pollster’s accuracy relative to its rivals was a simple function of how high it came in for Labor. As The Guardian’s display shows, line honours were shared by Resolve Strategic, RedBridge Group and Roy Morgan, and trailing the field was the Coalition’s hapless internal pollsters, Freshwater Strategy (apart from an Ipsos poll that was apparently half a point worse in having Labor’s lead at 51-49, which is news to me — the only polling I’m aware from it at any point during the term was limited to leaders’ ratings). Not included in this assessment was RedBridge Group/Accent Research tracking polling, which did very well for much of the campaign in pointing to a 3.5% Labor swing across 20 marginal seats that ended up swinging 4%, only to fall short with a 2% swing at the last. As an indication of how much better the polling industry performed than certain other areas of the media-political complex, the publisher that commissioned this polling persistently instructed readers to share its delusion that it pointed to a Labor minority government.
Another aspect worth noting of the news media’s horse race coverage was its acceptance of the Coalition’s claim that polling was failing to measure a revolutionary transformation in preference flows, such that the precedent of 2022 offered no guide on this score. Pollsters did in fact tweak their preference models in anticipation of weaker flows to Labor — BludgerTrack’s relatively good performance on two-party preferred had a lot to do with its persistence in applying 2022 election flows, which I must confess was more down to indolence than insight. We won’t actually know the true story here for a couple of months, when the Australian Electoral Commission will provide two-party preferred data from the unprecedented number of seats where the two-candidate counts include independent or minor party candidates, and — better yet — preference flows broken down by party.
We do, however, have 118 seats where the two-candidate counts are between Labor and the Coalition, and from which we can observe how well applying preference flows from 2022 would have done in projecting the two-party preferred. And they do in fact suggest that flows to Labor were quite substantially weaker than last time, such that Labor would have scored 55.4-44.6 across these seats on 2022 preference flows but in fact managed 54.5-45.5.
HAPPY MOTHERS DAY TO ALL THE MOTHERS AND THEIR FAMILIES OUT THERE! <3
So often the last comment of the previous thread is so adroit it deserves repeating.
The Liberals must make peace with the ‘F’ word: Feminism By Jacqueline Maley
There is no greater confirmation of the Liberal Party’s inability to learn from its mistakes than a re-read of its 2022 election review.
Such reviews are a convention on both sides of politics, and they (should) serve a sound purpose: the prosaic and simple purpose of learning history so as not to repeat it.
The 2022 review, undertaken by former party director Brian Loughnane and Senator Jane Hume, contains many paragraphs that could be cut and pasted into the next review, covering the devastating loss the Liberals have just suffered.
“The party has lost nearly all of its inner metropolitan seats,” reads one 2022 observation.
“Of particular concern in the results is that in seats with high numbers of female professional voters, the Liberal Party only holds three of the top 30 seats where previously it held 15.”
Then there is the conclusion that “the only demographic class where the Liberal Party and the National Party have a stronghold is in rural electorates”.
And its blunt follow-up: “No party that is seeking to form government has a pathway to a majority solely through rural and regional electorates.”
Further: “Liberal Party performed particularly poorly with female voters, continuing a trend that has been present since the election of 1996.”
This is a kind way of saying that its share of the female vote has been falling for nearly two decades, with no serious attempts to arrest the decline. No acknowledgment, outside this review, that the lady-vote is not a boutique item, not an interest group or a minority to be pandered to, but instead, that it represents the numerical majority of voters.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-liberals-must-make-peace-with-the-f-word-20250509-p5lxz9.html
C@t, you remember one of Dutton’s statements inside his LOTO acceptance speach, paraphrased as “I will not change anything about the Liberal party “. He wrote off the 2022 election review before it was even drafted.
Phew, I went back and read the live transcript of Duttons LOTO acceptance speach, a slog for sure.
He mentioned rape of refugees multiple times, actually said the words ‘anchor babies’, was blaming high interest rates and inflation on Labor, what a week after the LNP lost the election. Said the words ‘let me clear’, basically announced the fuel exise cut, and when he went to economic matters started to stumble and used the word ‘uh’ a lot.
That was an instructive exercise.
A Soviet-era spacecraft has plunged to Earth, more than a half-century after its failed launch to Venus.
Russia’s space agency said it believed the Kosmos 482 lander made an uncontrolled re-entry over the Indian Ocean, while European and US agencies were unsure just where it ended up.
Mostly Interested @ #4 Sunday, May 11th, 2025 – 6:17 am
Because he was always part of the problem and not the solution.
That’s why I hope Sussan Ley wins the leadership contest on Tuesday. At least she gets what the Liberals are sorely lacking in their little space in the political firmament, and much as I don’t want them to be competitive for partisan reasons, I do actually want the Liberal Party to get beck to being a socially progressive, economically conservative, no more culture wars, party who challenges Labor in the policy space, as opposed to the politics space all the time.
Felix says:
Saturday, May 10, 2025 at 8:45 pm
I don’t really think independents or crossbench parties (which aren’t seriously standing to be government in the same way that Labor and the Coalition are) should have proper policies.
The coalition don’t really want to run the country and they don’t have proper policies. They just want to stop Labor from running the place. The coalition don’t do policy. They don’t do ideas. They don’t do anything at all. They are the party of “No”. They are perfect partners for the Greens, who also want to stop Labor from running the place.
This result is the worst for the Coalition since the formation of the Liberals in 1944. Their prior worst defeat was in 1946 when the 2PP split was 54.1/45.9. Labor won 43 of 74 seats (58% of seats). The coalition won 29 (39% of seats). Jack Lang won a seat and an independent won a seat as well. The Reactionaries appear likely to secure 43 seats of 150, or 28.6% of seats. Labor, on 93, will hold 62.6% of seats.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1946_Australian_federal_election
After watching the latest friendlyjordies vid where he suggests Australia will never have an emissions trading scheme and looking at all the justifications in the BTL comments on the Guardian about why the Greens lost their lower house presence i do wonder.
Is it time for Labor to take an emissions trading scheme to the 2028 election?
From the Home of the Brave and the Land of the Free-ish
The Trump administration is considering suspending people’s rights to legal due process. Here’s what it means.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/05/10/what-is-habeas-corpus-suspension/
Trump is raking in the cash and expanding his power and authority within the GOP money world.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/10/us/politics/trump-republicans-money-super-pacs.html
Trump orders agencies to stop analysing the economic and social costs of climate change when developing policies.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/10/climate/social-cost-carbon-trump.html
Signs of a new independent movement is emerging to challenge the major parties.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/05/10/independents-two-party-system-house/
Mayor of Newark arrested for protesting outside an ICE facility, and the Trump administration is eyeing further arrests of Democrats in the House for the same thing.
https://www.axios.com/2025/05/10/trump-ice-arrest-house-democrats-new-jersey
Trump’s immigration horror stories are breaking through to regular voters.
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/trump-immigration-derpotation-horror-stories-reaching-new-audiences-rogan-comedy-oliver-brocasters-sports
Number of cargo ships heading to the US from China? ZERO. This hasn’t happened since the Covid pandemic.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/10/business/zero-ships-china-trade-ports-pandemic
Number of ‘daily’ intelligence briefings Trump has sat through since taking office? 12. And if he’s repeating the behaviour from Trump 1.0 he’d be the one talking instead of listening.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/09/trump-intelligence-briefing-frequency-00338946
Trump often says he didn’t know as an excuse for why he makes mistakes. Here’s a list of the big things Trump supposedly didn’t know about.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/05/10/trump-second-term-unaware/
Trump calls for 20,000 more officers to help with deportations.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/05/10/us/trump-news#dhs-deportation-extra-officers
Hegseth continues his war on diversity in the military, this time going after the prestigious military academies.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/05/09/hegseth-affirmative-action-service-academies/
Trump is already thinking about the midterms, which means Democrats should be too.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/05/10/donald-trump-midterms-2026-last-campaign-00339567
America is becoming less ready for natural disasters. What could go wrong?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/05/11/trump-disasters-noaa-fema-climate-change/
Exhibit A of what could go wrong: A magnitude 4.1 earthquake in Tennessee is felt as far away as Atlanta.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/4-1-magnitude-earthquake-in-tennessee-rattles-homes-as-far-away-as-atlanta
When the LNP lost the 2015 Queensland election, Joan Sheldon and Rob Borbidge wrote up a comprehensive post mortem. When they lost the subsequent election in 2018 they refused to do another one saying in an interview that none of their recommendations were listened to.
But there is a way for the Coalition to lurch further to the right and still win. Wait for Labor to implode and then pounce. It may take less time than we think. Keir Starmer had net ratings in the negative forties mere months after winning a first term and Nigel Farage would win an election held now. Albanese would do well to keep that in mind.
Interesting to note Senator Nick McKims use of the favoured Greens terminology- “arrogance” and ” hubris”- though he resisted the temptation to use ” same- same” .
I appreciate the political theatre in his statement but, come on, a mature Party would recognise the responsibility of having a BoP in the Senate and recognising that Australians have voted for progressive policies over culture wars……
Rex, you’ve got to give up speech- writing for your Greens.
Timmy: Labor in Australia unlike England have been governing for an entire term, they were a known quantity and this term was rewarded by a mammoth win. England system is first past the post – a really dumb system that is winner takes all. They also don’t have to vote hence the brexit decision. It’s really hard to compare us to the UK . One more thing is that uncontrolled immigration is the major issue pumping up support for Farage and co. I don’t know what the solution to that is but I doubt Farage does either. The LNP would need an issue like this to latch onto like they did with the asylum seeker thing that happened during Abbott’s time as opposition leader. That does not look like happening again much to the chagrin of the LNP.
Mostly Interested @ #5 Sunday, May 11th, 2025 – 6:44 am
His fascination with sexual assault is really rather odd.
World News & Politics Patrol:
Pope Leo XIV condemns Russia’s ‘imperialist’ invasion of Ukraine: https://kyivindependent.com/pope-leo-xiv-condemns-russias-imperialist-invasion-of-ukraine/
Explosions reported after India and Pakistan agree to ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/india/pakistan-says-three-air-bases-targeted-by-indian-missiles-2025-05-10/
India, Pakistan agree to stop military action on land, air and sea, confirms Vikram Misri: https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/india-pakistan-war-latest-news-pakistan-dgmo-dialled-indian-dgmo-at-3-30-pm-for-ceasefire-talks-fs-vikram-misri-confirms-2025-05-10-989691
India declares any future act of terror will be treated as act of war: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-declares-future-terror-attacks-will-be-treated-as-acts-of-war/articleshow/121056545.cms
Trump admin eyes arrests for House Dems over ICE incident: https://www.axios.com/2025/05/10/trump-ice-arrest-house-democrats-new-jersey
AOC Warns Republicans Are ‘Robbing People’ to Pay for Billionaire Tax Cuts: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/aoc-trump-republicans-medicaid-health-billionaire-tax-cuts-1235336383/
Laura Loomer’s ‘WOKE MARXIST POPE’ tweet is becoming a meme: https://www.dailydot.com/culture/laura-loomer-woke-marxist-pope-meme/
The GOP Is Already Planning to Win the Midterms… by Suppressing Your Vote!: https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/gop-voter-suppression-2671925543
Trump Hilariously Calls Toy Firm Mattel a Country: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-hilariously-calls-toy-firm-mattel-a-country/
Trump Has Skipped All but 12 of His Daily Intelligence Briefings: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-has-skipped-out-on-all-but-12-of-his-daily-intelligence-briefings/
Trump pal Roger Stone calls for Mark Kelly’s ‘execution’ after senator slams president’s crypto haul from White House: https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/roger-stone-trump-crypto-b2748347.html
Hegseth sparks fears as he moves to ax generals: https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5293050-defense-secretary-hegseth-fires-top-leaders/
Volcanic white gold: A lithium deposit valued at $1.5 trillion has been discovered in the U.S.: https://www.earth.com/news/volcanic-white-gold-a-lithium-deposit-valued-at-1-5-trillion-has-been-discovered-in-the-u-s/
Zero ships from China are bound for California’s top ports. Officials haven’t seen that since the pandemic: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/10/business/zero-ships-china-trade-ports-pandemic
Retired police officer arrested over ‘thought crime’ tweet: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/10/retired-police-officer-arrested-over-thought-crime-tweet/
The increased tax of super balances over $3m looks now likely to proceed.
I’ve always thought that anyone with this sort of money (looking at you Rex) could afford some smart accountant to look at other ways of stashing the loot to avoid tax. And so it seems that the smarties are rising to the occasion.. this from a tax consultant.
We’re reassessing the role of super for high-balance clients,” Nemtsas says.
“For many, it’s no longer the most efficient place for additional wealth, so we’re shifting focus to non-super investment structures.”
These include family trusts and investment companies.
Nemtsas actively manages his super, considering his asset mix and buying and selling assets every three months to realise gains regularly. It’s an approach that could be adopted by those concerned about the big sticking point of the policy; the taxing of unrealised capital gains.
“For SMSF clients, we’re reviewing the composition of their portfolios to reduce volatility around June 30 valuations,” he says.
Some clients are also contemplating taking money out of super and gifting it to children.
“We’re bringing forward intergenerational strategies – transferring wealth earlier through gifting, contributions to children’s or grandchildren’s super, investment bonds or setting up family wealth vehicles,” Nemtsas says.
Some people who have actively built up their super through voluntary contributions and have in excess of $3 million may feel that the increased tax breaks the social compact they had with the government to self-fund their retirement in return for generous tax concessions, but Nemtsas is not among them.
“I don’t feel aggrieved,” he says. “Legislation has changed constantly for the last 20 years, and it is not the first time I have had to adapt.”
https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/5-strategies-to-deal-with-labor-s-3m-super-tax-increase-20250506-p5lx0v
Thank you, Holden Hillbilly and Confessions. Much appreciated! 🙂
Trump Has Skipped All but 12 of His Daily Intelligence Briefings: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-has-skipped-out-on-all-but-12-of-his-daily-intelligence-briefings/
He has to do his hair, or have it done for him, in the mornings and it takes hours. 😐
Defected Nationals Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price announces bid for deputy Liberal Party leadership, backs Angus Taylor for leader: https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/jacinta-nampijinpa-price-announces-deputy-liberal-leadership-bid-backs-angus-taylor-for-leader/news-story/3c2fa4c80861ba8011156209ea2560fd
#weatheronPB
Rain, with loving care,
has washed clean the cooling air.
Breathing easily.
Good news from the subcontinent. US intervention gave both the face saver. Now let’s hope that local and regional hothead commanders can be restrained.
As a side comment, it is an absolute disgrace that between them the two countries have abject poverty affecting well over a hundred million people many of whom are in famine and hungry, and that they have between them over 350 nuclear warheads and airforces of over a thousand planes.
IPL to resume if de-escalation continues.
Holdenhillbilly @ #19 Sunday, May 11th, 2025 – 8:17 am
In news that surprises no one. 😐
The Greens should be going harder say the party’s grandees. Greens voters however, feel differently.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-11/australians-changed-vote-federal-election/105272214
The Liberals should move further to the right, say the Sky After Dark mob. Here’s what a lifelong Liberal voter who voted Labor last weekend thinks.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/10/liberal-party-women-say-watershed-moment-needed-to-win-them-back
Move further right, say Sky After Dark. Liberal voters feel differently.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/may/10/liberal-party-women-say-watershed-moment-needed-to-win-them-back
The Jacinta Price move from Angus Taylor is the ultimate “Hail Mary” reeking of desperation.
If any lesson to be learnt from the UK is that a lurch to the right and lut in the open corruption will kill you in the polls. Its hard to conpare Australia to the UK when the political environment is incredibly insular over there, both tories and labour hang out in the same circles moreso than here, where we generally have a AUS/US educated split in our politicians.
Trump Daily Security Briefings ( missed)
Trump needs someone to calculate how many times in his life he’s hit a stupid white ball down the fairway .. If there is any benefit to playing golf it lies in a serene early morning walk on dew covered grass & the call of magpies in the mist covered tres.. absolutely nothing to do with soulless Florida with his fat arse wedged into a golf cart
BK says:
Sunday, May 11, 2025 at 8:58 am
It’s a suicide note
I really hope they select Taylor/Price to lead the Libs, they will be defunct by the time of the next election.
Happy mother’s day to all mothers
Sky news should sell tickets for their accolytes. Some of them seem to have a penchant for tickets or chips on their person.
Pakistan breaches ceasefire despite peace talks, India hits back
Just hours after a US-brokered ceasefire was announced, Pakistan launched missile and drone attacks across Jammu and Kashmir, violating the truce and escalating tensions.
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/india-slams-ceasefire-violations-pakistan-2722897-2025-05-10
“Barely hours after a ceasefire agreement was announced by US President Donald Trump, Pakistan on late Saturday night launched a series of missile and drone attacks across the Line of Control (LoC) and the International Border in Jammu and Kashmir, triggering fresh tensions in the already volatile region.
The ceasefire understanding, brokered by Washington following the recent terror attacks in Pahalgam, was meant to de-escalate growing military hostilities between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. But just minutes after Trump confirmed the breakthrough on social media platform X, Pakistani forces reportedly violated the agreement with renewed aggression.
Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah posted videos on social media showing Indian air defence systems intercepting incoming Pakistani missiles over Srinagar, calling it a “brazen betrayal” of the ceasefire accord. He said, “This is no ceasefire. The air defence units in the middle of Srinagar just opened up.”
“
Autocrat – I am not sure that Ley will be able to hold them together either. What Andrew Gee has shown is that it is possible to quit the coalition and get re-elected as a local conservative Independent.
BK @ #28 Sunday, May 11th, 2025 – 8:58 am
The cartoon the other day showing the Northern Territory interloper sitting in Albo’s seat in the Cabinet Room was spot on. That’s what she wants, what she really, really wants.
BK says:
Sunday, May 11, 2025 at 8:58 am
The Jacinta Price move from Angus Taylor is the ultimate “Hail Mary” reeking of desperation.
中华人共和国
Reeks like the bait in a lost crabpot that’s been in the water for week!
BTW – how’s the fishing old mate? You used to chase those King George Whiting if I’m not mistaken.
Thanks fess and Holden for today’s news
The LNP won’t change, it’s Pale, Male and Stale. Ol’ Mate at my volunteer place moaned that “We’re F*#ked”, he proceeded to ask what Labor would do to solve the COL problem?
He wasn’t appreciative of suggestions that Dutton didn’t seem to rate COL policy over addressing the grievances that a shrinking demographic seems very sensitive to.
While ever The Rodent is able to be wheeled out at some stage (without embalming fluid) there will be a powerful rump of the Pale-Male-Stale hierarchy that will never countenance women, immigrants and First Nations issues or anything else for that matter.
The reason I reacted to Trump the way I did( i.e. aggressively) because I understand Trump. That is due to the way Pakistan behaved with India since Indian independence.
Trump has the characteristics of Pakistan establishment.
Happy Mothers Day.
I’m about to make Beef Wellington. But the mushrooms just came from the greengrocer.
The mushroom lady must be a good cook. I think it’s not easy to get right.
In opposition, the Liberals will change leaders as often as they change their socks (or maybe annually) until they find someone who looks like a winner.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leader_of_the_Opposition_(Australia)
2007-09:
Nelson: 9 months
Turnbull: 1 year 3 months
Abbott: 8 months until 2010, looked like a potential winner, won three years later.
1983-96 may have been more forgiving times:
Peacock: 2 years 6 mo.
Howard: 3 years 8 mo.
Peacock: 11 mo, lost election
Hewson: 4 years 2 mo. Lost election after 3 years, stayed on a further 1 year 2 mo. before being deposed.
Downer: 8 months.
Howard: 1 year 2 months, won election.
Ed Husic wins the poor me award on insiders this morning. Allowing himself to be buttered up by Speers.
He should he vanished from the front bench for this permanently.
How much revenge is enough?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-11/tiny-gazans-bearing-brunt-of-israeli-aid-blockade/105273014
Husic to Speers:
“They say success isn’t final, failure isn’t fatal- here now we have a Labor MP quoting Winston Churchill on insiders, that’s what it’s come to”
I have no words.
I have just remembered it is a low cartoon day, so here are some UK and other cartoons:
Graeme Bandeira
Patrick Blower
Peter Brookes #USUKTradeDeal
Ben Jennings
Matt
Matt #SycamoreGapTree
Scott Stanis (The flag is the flag of Chicago)
Tom Gauld
Royston
Martyn Turner
Harry Burton @Irish Examiner
Kal
Pat Hudson
Rod Emmerson
Andy Bunday
Brighty
Drew
Andy Davey
Morten Morland
Emanuele Del Rosso. Habemus papam. Now good luck.
Dave Brown #RoguesGallery #FrancisBacon
The original Francis Bacon from 1953 “Study after Velazquez’s Portrait of Pope Innocent X”
@Diogenes, my Beef Wellington has never killed anyone, but I’ve also never succeeded in getting both the pastry and the beef cooked to my liking. It’s firmly in the category of “order it at a restaurant, don’t make yourself miserable trying and failing to do it yourself”, for me.
leftieBrawlersays:
Sunday, May 11, 2025 at 9:35 am
Ed Husic wins the poor me award on insiders this morning. Allowing himself to be buttered up by Speers.
He should he vanished from the front bench for this permanently.
___________________________
live by the faction system die by the faction system.
Jacinta Price will never be Prime Minister of this country, all Labor has to
do is show her 2025 concession speech; a foul tirade of grievances and conspiracy theory
rubbish.