Two days to go until what is technically election day in the Northern Territory, though as the comprehensive data published by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission illustrates, the die has already largely been cast: 60,839 votes have already been cast or (in the case of postal votes) issued, which compares with a grand total of 105,833 votes cast at the last election in 2020. Nothing of obvious consequence has happened over the period of the campaign, and to my knowledge there has been neither published polling nor any useful intelligence on where the parties believe they stand.
The Northern Territory News gauged the opinions of two local academics on Tuesday: Rolf Gerritsen predicted the CLP would pick up “five or six seats”, which would respectively get them into minority or majority government, whereas Nathan Franklin tipped Labor to lose only one or two out of their existing 15 seats out of 25. For what it’s worth, my feeling has long been that the situation looks similar to Queensland, where Labor appears headed for defeat after two decades of dominance amid a high pitch of concern about crime.
For much more detail, my guide to the Northern Territory election offers an overview and an in-depth look at all 25 seats. I am hard at work preparing my live results feature for Saturday night and beyond, which will as usual feature projections, probabilities and map displays of the results as they are reported.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of the Northern Territory election. The open thread for general discussion is here.
William I agree with with your assessment of the likely result.
If the CLP can’t win office – or at least minority government after the Fyles share fiasco and now the current crime wave, then the NT has clearly become a one-party jurisdiction!
Still, what can you say about an election in which the only policy issue that has filtered into my consciousness down here in Tassie is the burning question of whether or not Territorians should be permitted to keep their own crocs as pets!
The role of independents – the purple themed ones – will be interesting to watch in Darwin, particularly in Johnston where plenty of solid ALP/Green voters I know seem to be supporting Justine Davis. The purple folk seem to sit ideologically between the ALP and Greens, as far as I can make out. I’d like to hear what intel others have here. The vibe when I was there 6 months ago was all over red rover for the ALP because CRIME, CRIME, CRIME (!!!). That seemed to have softened when I was back in July.
Not enough concern about the real crime, fracking.
I’ve just got back from the NT.
Mood is glum there. Hostility not directed at any particular party, just general glumness.
I’d say the CLP will just win with a 2PP probably sitting around 50.8 to 49.2 to the CLP.
Given there are only 25 seats, 2PP probably doesn’t really matter.
CLP beat Greens to 2nd place by 14 votes in Fyles’ seat of Nightcliff last time. They are a good chance to finish above the CLP this time, although independent Mililma May may take votes from them.
The shares stuff was a giant nothing burger. I’m not sure why Fyles was chosen after Gunner resigned. People went quite feral against Fyles similar to the reaction against Gillard but on a much smaller scale. Lawler is quite different and has reversed much of the decline in the Labor vote.
With such small electorates it is impossible to predict. It could be anything from a CLP smashing to a very small Labor win, but I think the CLP will form next government and that is probably about right.
“The role of independents – the purple themed ones – will be interesting to watch in Darwin, particularly in Johnston where plenty of solid ALP/Green voters I know seem to be supporting Justine Davis”.
Plus the sitting member Joel Bowden (ALP) is a tool so that may help Davis
There are only 6000 voters in each electorate. Incumbency has always been a huge thing in the Territory.
The CLP were in for the first 20+ odd years of self government. The ALP has been in for 23 of the next 27.
The CLP offer nothing but pro-business and low level ‘casual’ racism. The ALP have a warm fuzzy exterior but are ‘conservative’ on economic issues.
The real question is whether the independents and minor parties can have an impact.
Territory politics has been about ‘crime’ in every election. That in itself has a nasty taste. Fyles is long gone and forgotten.
The NT news ran an article a few days ago saying it was neck and neck but I didn’t actually see any polling. The most recent poll was a total wipeout for Labor, while Fyles was still chief minister.
Interesting times.
I would guess that unless some first nations or environmental independents can take enough seats to hold the balance of power, it won’t matter which of the major parties wins. It will be business as usual.
This place really should be administered by the Commonwealth just so as to moderate the behaviour of the big mining and pastoral interests. If you are unsure about what I’m referring to, go back and watch last Monday’s episode of 4 Corners.
“This place really should be administered by the Commonwealth just so as to moderate the behaviour of the big mining and pastoral interests. If you are unsure about what I’m referring to, go back and watch last Monday’s episode of 4 Corners.”
A question really does need to be asked whether the NT is a viable administrative unit. Perhaps it should be cut up – give Central Australia to SA and the northern part could become part of Katter’s dream North Queensland state.
Quietly confident for the CLP.
My bookie only paying $1.25.
I find it a little astonishing that there hasn’t been a single poll for the entirety of the election campaign. While I’m realise polling the NT is rather tricky and probably not very profitable those doing it, they were clearly able to manage to do couple long before the election was called, so why not one now when it would actually be useful? How is anybody even supposed to gauge the accuracy of NT polling when it’s impossible to compare them to election results?
One would think that the CLP are the clear favourites here, but with barely any actual figures to go off of, who knows how things will actually go on the night.
In past elections Newspoll polling has come out on the Friday issue of the NT News the night before or the Weekend Australian on the actual day of the election. It’s been quite accurate (if uselessly timed), predicting the historic Clare Martin victory in 2001, for instance. Agree @Stuart that the best result would be an ALP minority with progressive/Aboriginal cross bench that enforces environmental /pastoral safeguards on water and fracking.
@RoyalDoulton
Yep agree that if any seat is going to flip Green, it’s Nightcliff, despite that massive Fyles margin. Definitely one to keep an eye on.
Likely outright CLP win. But a decent chance of it being a minority government, with independents deciding the government.
CLP’s campaign is emphasising their ‘team’. Have not checked with past elections, but they seem to be putting up more non-Caucasian candidates, presumably in an attempt to put their old CLP red neck image behind them, which is a smart move in the modern NT, given it has elected a centre-left government for 20 of the last 24 years, and clearly undergone some political and social shifts.
After such a long dominance there is probably also a bit of the ‘time for a change’ factor in there, even if Labor are governing okay. The CLP have paid their penance for their single disastrous term in government this century, the Mills-Giles fiasco (2012-16), as they should have.
All that said, I also have not been picking up any serious undercurrents in the community on anything much political of late. Life is mostly just ticking over here. Main serious practical issue is probably the cost of housing, which most people understand is not something that can be easily or quickly solved by any government. Not convinced crime is such an issue now, any more than usual at least, no matter how much the CLP and NT News want it to be. So, while I don’t expect Labor to hang on, I won’t be surprised if they do, probably as a minority government.
Can’t believe I’m rooting for the right of centre party but I hope the CLP wins. If they can’t win now, with all the issues in Darwin, Alice and the communities then they never will. NT Labor are not progressive (except when it comes to ending grog bans and curfews that make communities safer) and they’re not a good government – may as well roll the dice.
CLP very concerned about Barkly & the fact that the significant Indi’s are all preferencing Labor.
Labor very concerned about Karama & Fong Lim. They. concede Port Darwin is gone.
NT news reporting today that the Alp leaders seat is in danger of falling.
Crazy to think that all of NTs voters could fit inside the MCG.
The site needs a bit of cheering up. Everyone is all gloomy like the NT voters.
I’m happy to collate a list of posters expert predictions for the final 2PP split.
I’ll start off with 50.8 to 49.2 in the CLP’s favour.
I think it will be a close election. No stonking win either side.
If you wish, drop your predictions on the NT blog over the next 30 hrs or so.
Last by-election : Lars and c@t came out on top.
My 2pp prediction:
Labor 51.9
CLP 48.1
(Preferred result would be ALP minority gov.)
Thankyou Nadia.
I predict 51.5% to the CLP to 48.5% for ALP. Expect the seat count to be 14 CLP, 9 ALP.
Do either of the prepoll or the postal votes (those already received) get counted tomorrow night?
Hi Fargo61
Fairly confident pre-poll’s get counted tomorrow from 6PM Territory Time.
Postals from Monday.
Hopefully WB will clarify tomorrow evening
Thanks Nadia I have no real idea, but I’ll take a random stab.
52.5% CLP.
55-45 CLP with CLP 15 seats and Labor 7
According to the NTEC (https://ntec.nt.gov.au/elections/current-elections/2024-territory-election/counting-information):
6:00 pm, 24 August:
Counts begin simultaneously in all counting bays.
Election day voting centres start counting ordinary votes for their respective divisions.
Counting of votes issued at Early voting centres begin for multiple divisions, starting with designated priority divisions.
Mobile polling team counting begins.
10:00 am, Sunday, 25 August:
Any remaining counts, including postal votes, will resume and be completed.
Agree with michael 55-45 CLP will not be close election CLP will win all Palmerston Seats including Labor leaders seat plus will win some unexpected bush seats. CLP will not lose any seats it already has.
CLP will win Blain, Port Darwin, Fong Lim, Arafura, Drysdale, Daly, Goyder and Fannie Bay. Seats close will be Karama and Arnham. Think most of Darwin Northern Suburbs will stick with Labor but could be Green/Independent Gains.
Damo your seat thinking is similar to mind.
Yes I think the Chief Minister will be jobless on Monday.
Thanks arraitch for clarifying.
So with postals accounting for just over 5%, we will have a clear cut decision tomorrow night.
Count stops at 10.30 NT time, with a re-start on Sunday morning.
Pre polls are sitting at around 74%, so I figure about 20% of voters will vote Saturday.
Given they’ll count pre polls from 6PM local, we should tick over the 90% counted mark tomorrow.
I’ve read that report about the Chief Minister too. Sounds like she might be in a bit of strife.
Still think it will be a bit tight. The Aborginal remote booths vote very strongly in the ALP’s favour, although an Indie topped the primaries in several remote booths in Arnhem last time round.
Fed Implications. Gosh, Dutts hasn’t been up there recently. He needs a healthy swing to the CLP that’s for sure.
CLP54.5 – ALP 45.5 2PP
CLP Majority Government
Rolf Gerritsen was interviewed on the radio just now.
He reckons that Laura Norder is the No 1 issue, that no party has much of an idea of how to address the crime drivers, that Indigenous voter registration is very high because of the effort to register them for the Referendum, that Indigenous voters are turning out at lower than normal rates and that the CLP will win the election. FWIW, he made the observation that Indigenous voters have largely given up on NT governments and are looking to the Feds to meet their needs.
If the Indigenous community turns out to vote, Labor has a chance to retain government. If the swing is on, then the CLP is in the box seat. We just don’t know about the level of support for the major parties given the absence of polling.
With 4 independent-held seats, the CLP should gain 3 of them: Blain, Araluen and Goyder, adding 3 seats to the 7 already held. Therefore, the CLP should have 10 seats but it gets harder for them to win another 3 seats for majority government.
In the other independent-held seat of Mulka, there are only 2 candidates with the ALP deciding not to contest it. This suggests that Labor can rely on the independent for support on confidence and supply. So, Labor is probably starting with 15 seats.
Let’s give away Port Darwin [ALP margin of 1.9%] and Fong Lim ALP [2.2%] to the CLP. The CLP needs another one. The next 4 ALP seats on the pendulum are Arafura [3.6% and 2 candidates], Drysdale [5.4%, 3 candidates and held by the Chief Minister], Daly [6.1% following a by-election, with 2 candidates] and Karama [8.3% and 4 candidates]. Each of the ALP candidates is a sitting member.
In the 2-horse races of Daly and Arafura, incumbency has to be of some benefit. In Daly, the CLP has chosen the same person as that for the by-election. Again, in the absence of a substantial swing to the CLP, I suspect that the ALP will hold them. If the Chief Minister cannot hold her seat of Drysdale, then all is lost for Labor, but I cannot see that happening unless she is utterly loathed and a territory-wide swing is on.
The seat of Karama on a margin of 8.3% seems a bit too far up the pendulum.
My guess is that the ALP and CLP will each hold 12 seats and the member for Mulka will hold the balance of power.
The NT is not QLD where the baseball bats have been out for some time. The dynamics seem completely different.
nadia88 and arraitch, Thankyou both for the clarification re the vote counting tomorrow evening.
‘middle aged balding white man says:
Thursday, August 22, 2024 at 10:14 am
…
Territory politics has been about ‘crime’ in every election. That in itself has a nasty taste.
….’
—————
The earlier elections were not about crime. They were about land rights. In those halcyon days street crime was barely a real life issue.
It now impacts significant number of territorians directly. IMO, most of those directly impacted are probably Indigenous Territorians.
Most Down Southers have never really lived in a situation where it could be very risky to go outside. When that happens it has a significant impact on the way you view the world… not necessarily rationally, of course.
But significantly.
My view is that Laura Norder will make a significant difference to the NT election outcome but that the election outcome will have stuff all impact on Laura Norder.
ALP 12 seats CLP 11 Seats
2 Independents
ALP 50.2%
CLP 49.8%
52/48
CLP 13
ALP 12
Odds and Sods zip.
“My view is that Laura Norder will make a significant difference to the NT election outcome but that the election outcome will have stuff all impact on Laura Norder.”
Little doubt on the latter.
2PP won’t include the normally safe ALP seat of Mulka, so I’ll say a 2pp of 55-45, but it’s really more like 53.5-46.5 if Mulka could be included.
As for results, the CLP will definitely get Port Darwin and I would think Blain and Goyder, though with independents as their main rivals, can’t be absolutely confident. After this their other prospects are Fannie Bay, Karama, Drysdale and Fong Lim, with Arnhem and Wanguri as possible longshots. Fannie Bay and Karama are the best bets. Despite being ALP for a long time, FB is more marginal than it looks on paper and the ALP has had a lot of luck there in the past. Karama is the opposite, its 10% more marginal than all the other northern suburbs seats which suggests the vote is being dragged down by the 2-term sitting member. Given that the same candidate is running again and there should be a 10%+ swing across northern Darwin, I think it’s one of the most important ones to watch.
Fong Lim on the other hand will be harder with a strong first term MP and weak challenger.
I don’t see any chance for the CLP in Daly or Arafura, except if there’s a wipeout. The by-election results in these two seats and its normal safe status, would also indicate that Barkly needs to be closely watched, though given the result 2020, Edgington is surely as effective as they come.
So I’ll go for CLP 12 (7 current plus Port Darwin, Blain, Goyder, Fannie Bay and Karama. ALP 11. Ind 2.
CLP to pick up 12-15% swings in seats they hold in Alice Springs, Katherine and Brennan, and 8-10% across Darwin but ALP to hold in the Bush
I predict a hung parliament. There are two ultra marginal bush seats held by the alp which could change sides
CLP 51.5 to ALP 48.5
CLP 16 seats
ALP 7 seats
Greens 2 seats (Johnston and Nightcliff)
I might as well just be picking random numbers from a hat here, but I’m going to predict:
CLP: 13
ALP: 9
Others: 3 (All the current independents, excluding Officer Nose Candy)
TPP: Erm. Let’s assume a mild tightening since the last poll and go with… uh… 53-47 to CLP?
Gosh. I think the swing is on going by the NT news headlines.
Would appear C.M. Lawler is already conceeding defeat, and now blaming the Feds.
Very untidy
Sorry to sound like a Mrs backflip/double somersault sort of poster
I’m now going 54-46 to CLP
I did say 50.8% to the CLP yesterday, so I’ll wear that.
Can’t be long for that pre-election poll
Last figures in from NT Electoral Commission Early Voting is in with 53.83% of Roll has already Voted either Pre-Poll, Postal or Mobile Team. Therefore probably only 20% to 25% of roll will vote tomorrow as voting turnout is low in NT. So will have to wait a while for the Pre-Poll vote to be counted in tomorrows count to show clear winner. In Goyder 66.10% have voted whereas Mulka 37.81%. Figures for all seats on their site.
CLP insiders “alarmed “ about Barkly. Without it unlikely to be able to form majority government. ALP increasingly confident “Red Wall” in Dsrwin’ s northern suburbs will hold.
Antony Green is quoting a figure on his site of around 75% pre polls already.
Usually when voters are rushing to the polling booths, it means one thing – a change of government coming up.
Antony Green link, if you wish to peruse, is here.
https://antonygreen.com.au/
Edit: Thanks Damo. The NT electoral figures would of course be more accurate so no criticism from me.
Doubt Barkly will be lost with first time MP and former Mayor. Northern Darwin suburbs will be won by labor but some might fall to Greens/Ind. Fannie Bay or Karama only CLP chances.
He is probably saying 75% of the total vote as not all on roll will vote but yes I have a similar figure of 20-25% to vote tomorrow.
NT Electoral Site Pre-Poll, Postal and Mobile Voting
https://ntec.nt.gov.au/elections/current-elections/2024-territory-election/voting-data
Yep, I’m the same. 20% ordinary votes. 5% postals, and the rest pre-polls.
The indigenous vote in the NT did not come out for the referendum so they will not be rocking up to this election.