Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)

The government rises in one poll and comes down hard in another. Results also on carbon emission targets, Gaza and vaping.

The fortnightly Essential Research poll goes against the recent grain in recording a four-point drop for the Coalition to 32%, with Labor down one to 31%, the Greens steady on 13% and One Nation up three to 8%, and the undecided component up two to 6%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure, which has consistently been very close throughout the year, finds Labor moving into the lead for the first time since early April by holding steady at 48% while the Coalition falls two to 46%.

Further questions record 31% support and 36% opposition to Peter Dutton’s new position on carbon emissions, with respondents told this would breach a Paris climate agreement backed by 190 other countries. There is also a 52-48 split in favour of sticking to the 2030 target over an alternative that encapsulates Peter Dutton’s position thus: “Australia should abandon the 2030 target because it’s unachievable and hurting the economy and instead focus on the 2050 target”. However, there is a 63-37 split in favour of developing renewable as the means to the end of the 2050 target over sticking with fossil fuels and waiting until nuclear is developed in 15 to 20 years.

Questions on Israel and Gaza find 52% satisfied with the Australian government’s response, although twice as many think it too supportive of Israel than too harsh, at 32% and 16% respectively. There is a four-point drop in support for Israel’s action since April to 15%, with opposition up six to 38% and a two-point increase in support for a temporary ceasefire to 21%. A question on the government’s plan to make vapes available only through pharmacies by prescription finds 56% in favour and 22% opposed. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1160.

After two improved results for Labor, the weekly Roy Morgan poll records a sharp reversal, recording a tie on two-party preferred after Labor led 53.5-46.5 last week. On the primary vote, Labor is down a point to 29.5%, the Coalition is up three to 38%, the Greens are down two to 13.5% and One Nation is down half a point to 5%. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1724.

Nine Newspapers has also published further findings from the Resolve Strategic poll which put support for the government’s 43% carbon reduction target for 2030 as a stepping stone to net zero by 2050 at 33%, with a further 19% favouring a more ambitious approach. Only 17% supported Peter Dutton’s approach of abandoning the 2030 target, with a further 13% rejecting emissions targets altogether.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,974 thoughts on “Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan (open thread)”

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  1. Sceptic @ #1850 Saturday, June 22nd, 2024 – 5:19 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, June 22, 2024 at 8:47 am
    It looks like Britishers don’t want Nigel Farage as Opposition Leader after the election and so have started bolstering Tory numbers.

    Would be good to see MI5 release file on Nigel being Putin’s useful idiot..

    Did you read the transcript of the BBC interview with Farage? When asked about his opinion of Russia’s attack and war in Ukraine, he dissembled mightily. Apparently it’s NATO’s fault for expanding eastwards and Putin had no choice but to attack Ukraine. Which is a load of old cobblers.

  2. Heshbollah is a different kettle of war fish than Hamas for a number of reasons.

    The first is that hilly country provides better defensive options.
    The second is that heshbollah may have something like 150,000 missiles, many of which are superior to those operated by Hamas in terms of payload and accuracy.
    The third is that heshbollah has strategic depth.
    The fourth is that Israel will find it difficult to totally prevent resupply.
    The fifth is that Heshbollah has more fighters.
    The sixth is that Heshbollah fighters will include many with war experience in Syria.

    Israel can probably overcome all these.. to an extent. It is unlikely that it will be able to generate a complete victory.

    What that means is that Israel can probably push Heshbollah back but that Israel will probably not be able to stop Heshbollah from firing missiles into Israel.

  3. centre says Saturday, June 22, 2024 at 1:17 pm

    Do you all remember how back in 2007 climate change, according to Rudd Labor, was the greatest moral challenge of our lifetime? That was 17 years ago!

    Fast forward to today: The dams are still full. We haven’t had a dry autumn in Sydney since 2008. And it’s yet another freezing cold day like usual.

    Everyone I know in northwest and southwest of Sydney thinks global warming is a load of crap, and they’re paying too much for energy all due to leftwing and teal ideology.

    Dutton has shown a lot of guts with his nuclear policies. People care about the cost and consistency of energy, and it’s clean, for whatever that’s worth lol!

    The amusing thing about global warming deniers is their support for nuclear at the expense of coal and gas. Coal and gas are cheaper sources of electricity than nuclear. If global warming really was crap, then it would make far more sense to continue with fossil fuels rather than going nuclear. But, it’s ideology that matters to this crowd, not facts, either scientific or economic.

    imacca says Saturday, June 22, 2024 at 1:49 pm

    “Two new reactors under construction in Japan at last count with the national goal to have 33 reactors working by 2030
    ====================================
    So… “no additional ones”?”

    I think the two in build may have been building before Fukushima and build restarted. From what i have read the Japanese basically shut down all their nuclear plants after the earthquake, and are restarting some after having the “oh shit” moment of realization that they can have stronger quakes that the reactors were designed for.

    So, years later, with quite a few reactors in place, they are really only recently getting some back on line and restarted.

    They also seem to have a lot that are end of life and need permanent decommissioning …… ie: all the “waste”disposed of.

    Seems that everyone want to focus on the economic aspects of Duttons brain fart on nuclear. But, it is worth remembering that large nuclear reactor are “safe”, until they are not, and then its a massive environmental hit AND massive hit to the taxpayers. The spivs who make the profits basically get away with no liability.

    Safety argument can be totally rebuffed (at a political rather than practical level though) if any reactor builds in Australia are subject to the project developers / operators posting adequate bond (for decommissioning and waste disposal) and proving they have adequate insurance in place to cover reasonably likely accident and decontamination scenarios.

    Which I think would kill domestic nuclear in Australia stone dead, not even a residual glow left behind.

    It can take 50 years to fully decommission a nuclear power plant. That’s a lot of potential work for engineering consultants and contractors if one is so inclined.

    centre says Saturday, June 22, 2024 at 2:13 pm

    Just another thing, the cost of Dutton’s nuclear power plants will not cost the taxpayers a cent or put any pressure on the budget.

    The nuclear power plants will be deemed to be government assets and could be sold in the future for an absolute fortune.

    In the meantime, it would ultimately lower the cost of energy, be better for the economy, lower inflation and less pressure on interest rates

    With rubbish like that you can only be a troll.

    Badthinker says Saturday, June 22, 2024 at 3:31 pm

    If you have a sunny backyard and like to catch some rays while not getting bitten by ants, pour boiling water on coffee grounds, let cool, then spread the tea on the lawn.
    Will take a few months, but the ants will find a home elsewhere.

    John Quiggin @johnquiggin.bsky.social

    Poland is about 5 years ahead of Australia in planned nuclear development, has selected AP1000. Just pushed 2033 target out to 2040. Suggests 2045 target for Oz.
    Poland’s first nuclear plant seen starting operations in 2040, minister says

  4. Boerwar says Saturday, June 22, 2024 at 5:26 pm

    Heshbollah is a different kettle of war fish for a number of reasons.

    The first is that hilly country provides better defensive options.
    The second is that heshbollah may have something like 150,000 missiles, many of which are superior to those operated by Hamas in terms of payload and accuracy.
    The third is that heshbollah has strategic depth.
    The fourth is that Israel will find it difficult to totally prevent resupply.
    The fifth is that Heshbollah has more fighters.
    The sixth is that Heshbollah fighters will include many with war experience in Syria.

    Israel can probably overcome all these.. to an extent. It is unlikely that it will be able to generate a complete victory.

    What that means is that Israel can probably push Heshbollah back but that Israel will probably not be able to stop Heshbollah from firing missiles into Israel.

    And they will return as soon as Israel withdraws. Israel really needs a new government and prime minister.

  5. I should have mentioned that Heshbollah leadership does not appear to want all out war but that Israeli Government hawks do appear to want an all out war against Heshbollah.

    When all you have is a hammer…

  6. bc
    True. Which is why the Israeli vision would be a 20 km DMZ north from the Israeli border – roughly to the Litani River line.

  7. So, I asked the question, do nuclear reactors recycle all their water? I checked Quora:

    Nuclear power plants use water as a coolant to transfer heat away from the reactor core. This water absorbs heat generated by the nuclear reactions and turns into steam, which is then used to drive turbines connected to generators to produce electricity.

    While it is technically possible to cool down the steam back into water and reuse it in the system, there are several reasons why this is not commonly done:

    1. Contamination: The water used in the reactor core and steam cycle can become contaminated with radioactive materials. Reusing this water without proper treatment could lead to the spread of radioactive contaminants throughout the system.

    2. Corrosion: The process of cooling down and reheating water can introduce additional stress on the system and increase the risk of corrosion in the pipes and other components. This could reduce the lifespan of the equipment and potentially compromise safety.

    3. Efficiency: Energy is required to cool down steam back into water, which would reduce the overall efficiency of the plant. It is more energy-efficient to use once-through cooling systems or open-loop cooling systems that discharge the steam into the environment after it passes through the turbines.

    4. Safety: Reusing water in a closed-loop system would require additional complexity in the design and operation of the plant, which could introduce safety risks. Maintaining a simple and reliable cooling system is crucial for the safe operation of a nuclear power plant.

    Overall, while it is theoretically possible to cool down and reuse water in a nuclear power plant, the practical challenges and risks associated with doing so often make it more feasible to use a once-through cooling system or open-loop cooling system.

    So, Badthinker’s latest one-liner lie blows up in his face. Again.

  8. Birmo has supported the Dutton Plan, he’s just pointed out that Renewables will still be the best part of the energy system.

  9. Boerwar

    I don’t disagree with your summary. What I would add is that geographically, logistically and militarily, trying to force Hezbollah out of Lebanon is vastly more difficult than forcing Hamas out of Gaza. Israel largely failed at this in 1978, 1982 and 2006. Hezbollah now is a lot stronger than PLO was then.

    Israel, like USA in Iraq, and Russia in Ukraine, is embarking on what is IMO an unwinnable war.

    Biden has a problem with Netanyahu. He feels obliged to support him, even though Netanyahu plainly ignores Biden’s requests. It makes Biden look weak IMO, and won’t help him stay POTUS.

    BC and Boerwar

    I wrote this without seeing your later posts. We are in close agreement.

  10. C@t
    Yes, it was a bit silly of badthinker, but the solution stares us right in the face. Add an extra 5m on the top of Warragamba so it doesn’t flood, and siphon the extra water out to Lithgow for use as a coolant.

    Or just build 10 in Windsor, they have plenty of water.

    Or just let Tasmanians build the Franklin dam, then we can sell you the power at an extortionately high rate so we can have the money and your electricity bills can still decrease. Works either way.

  11. Centre was a Ruddist back in the day, but has also always denied the reality of AGW if I recall his comments from around 10+ years ago correctly. So it shouldn’t surprise that he would be in favour of nuclear power instead of renewable energy.

    However, I think his main gripe at present is the Minns government plan to turn Rosehill into high density housing. He emerged on PB the very day of the announcement, having been absent for years simply to remonstrate against Minns.

    At the time I imagined the collective choking on glasses of Tattinger at the thought.

  12. out of sortssays:
    Saturday, June 22, 2024 at 5:42 pm
    C@t
    Yes, it was a bit silly of badthinker, but the solution stares us right in the face. Add an extra 5m on the top of Warragamba so it doesn’t flood, and siphon the extra water out to Lithgow for use as a coolant.
    ====================================================

    Do you know how a siphon works? You can only siphon to somewhere with lower elevation than the starting site. You might want to check Lithgow’s and Warragamba Dams altitude before going ahead with this dodgy idea.

    Lithgow: Altitude above sea level 950m.
    Warragamba Dam: Altitude above sea level of high water mark 180m.

    Then again should i be surprised that water can flow up hill in LNP La La land?

  13. Even if climate change didn’t exist as an issue (and it does), nuclear power makes zero sense for Australia.

    We are talking about an option that is likely to double power costs! Has Dutton not heard of the cost of living crisis? That is the problem with living in the Palm Beach bubble.

    Consider the alternatives. We are going to have to spend $350+ billion for 7 nuclear reactors at a likely $50+ billion each.

    There are 27 million people in Australia in approx. 12 million households. For $18K per household, you could give every household a solar PV system including battery, to largely eliminate their power bills. That would cost approx. $210 billion, 2/3 the cost of the nuclear fantasy.

    Put another way, as several experts have already suggested, nuclear power will double energy bills for households and business.

    Nuclear power in Australia is financial madness.

  14. Ticker tape……on the success of LNP projects………
    NBN-Snowy 2-Adelaide-Darwin railway-NBN-Snowy 2-Adelaide-Darwin railway……………………NBN…………Proposed 7 nuclear power stations …….35 years way and squillions of taxpayer money……Peter Dutton gone and forgotten….But, oh what a conviction politician he was………

  15. C@t:

    You need to remember these things with the Liberal and National parties’ nuclear position:

    – The Nationals have long been an advocate for nuclear, yet could never get the Liberal leader(s) at the time to officially endorse it as policy.
    – Under Dutton’s leadership the Liberals are slowly but surely adopting more and more policies from the Nationals.
    – Dutton’s leadership has been weak. Since the budget the government has been hitting its strides and has a consistent and appealing message to voters. The coalition’s budget reply sank without trace. Who even remembers anything about it?
    – The Liberals don’t have an official climate change position that is coherent let alone realistic.
    – Not even 3 weeks ago some in the Liberal partyroom were advocating for Frydenberg to contest Kooyong, displacing Amelia Hamer into the bargain, on the grounds that he is a future leader. This was clearly aimed at Dutton, nobody else, and indicates the despair some felt that the LOTO was no-go.
    – Dutton makes this nuclear announcement without taking it to the partyroom, without consulting his colleagues. Who does that other than someone who is desperate and knows their time in the job is ticking?
    – The nuclear policy is a fig leaf to give a) the coalition cover on not having a coherent climate change position, and b) Dutton security in the leadership.

    If the coalition win the election the nuclear fantasy will be dropped like a hot potato because of cost, feasibility and sovereign risk. If they lose Dutton will be replaced and a reset will be applied. It is therefore pointless trying to analyse the policy (such that it is) from a rational standpoint.

  16. ‘Socrates says:
    Saturday, June 22, 2024 at 5:41 pm

    Boerwar

    I don’t disagree with your summary. What I would add is that geographically, logistically and militarily, trying to force Hezbollah out of Lebanon is vastly more difficult than forcing Hamas out of Gaza. Israel largely failed at this in 1978, 1982 and 2006. Hezbollah now is a lot stronger than PLO was then.

    Israel, like USA in Iraq, and Russia in Ukraine, is embarking on what is IMO an unwinnable war.

    Biden has a problem with Netanyahu. He feels obliged to support him, even though Netanyahu plainly ignores Biden’s requests. It makes Biden look weak IMO, and won’t help him stay POTUS.’
    ————————–
    Yep. The true irony is that Israel has been perfectly useless when it comes to the US in any of its Middle East Wars.
    It is an absolute soak for resources in return for nothing but grief.
    Perhaps the US could re-align with Turkey rather than stick with Israel?

  17. out of sortssays:
    Saturday, June 22, 2024 at 5:57 pm
    Pump it then Entropy. The station should supply enough power to do such a thing.
    =====================================================

    Pump it through a 100 km pipe up a 800m elevation through some of the most bushfire prone country on earth. Which will only get more bushfire prone as global warming gets worse. Sounds a great plan. What would be the consequences of a pipe or pump failing anyway? MELTDOWN!

    The second “Lithgow Flash” ?

    Lithgow glows, like a firefly glows?

    Lithglow?

  18. Japan’s giant energy trading houses would consider helping to pay for a nuclear rollout in Australia in return for decades-long investment returns, industry insiders say.
    No doubt.
    Since it’s to be Government owned, they might not be so keen.
    Just imagine if Labor were floating NP?
    There’d be spivs and gangsters lined up from Vladivostok to Liverpool wanting in on the action.

  19. ‘frednk says:
    Saturday, June 22, 2024 at 6:07 pm

    Does a comment reveal comments newer than 1.30.’
    ——————
    Perhaps try asking the Oracle at Delphi?

  20. I was finally able to check out BKs as usual magisterial collection of news stories and cartoons. I feel Leaks contributions are close to the sort of propaganda sh*t you would have seen in German newspapers in the run up to WW2

  21. Yes a comment catches you up. Now what do you have to do to lose it.
    I’ve tried clearing cookies that doesn’t seem to change things.

  22. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, June 22, 2024 at 5:36 pm
    So, I asked the question, do nuclear reactors recycle all their water? I checked Quora:

    Nuclear power plants use water as a coolant to transfer heat away from the reactor core. This water absorbs heat generated by the nuclear reactions and turns into steam, which is then used to drive turbines connected to generators to produce electricity.

    While it is technically possible to cool down the steam back into water and reuse it in the system, there are several reasons why this is not commonly done…

    A former director of planning on Warragamba Dam water usage on Ch 10 news last night:
    (wtte)The waste water from a Mount Piper reactor would drain into the headwaters of Cox’s River, which drains into Warragamba dam, which supplies 95% of Sydney’s water.

    Fancy a real atomic cocktail in 2045? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_(cocktail)

  23. So looking back, was the media moralising Labor memes really because they (Labor) dared to communicate to the community directly rather than through the media?

    Like, the media was pissed off that they couldn’t filter and “balance” again LNP propaganda?

  24. It takes between 13 and 24 billion liters of water a year to cool a nuclear power plant.

    That is between 13 and 24 million cubic m.

    Or 13,000 to 24,000 megalitres.

    There is no way that the states are going to give the Feds that much water from the MDB.

    Current desal prices are between $.5 and $2.50 US dollars per cubic m.

    My calculation is that it would cost between $7 million and $70 million at current desal prices just to do nothing else but to cool the Whyalla nuclear plant.

    A year.

  25. citizensays:
    Saturday, June 22, 2024 at 6:15 pm
    C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, June 22, 2024 at 5:36 pm
    So, I asked the question, do nuclear reactors recycle all their water? I checked Quora:

    Nuclear power plants use water as a coolant to transfer heat away from the reactor core. This water absorbs heat generated by the nuclear reactions and turns into steam, which is then used to drive turbines connected to generators to produce electricity.

    While it is technically possible to cool down the steam back into water and reuse it in the system, there are several reasons why this is not commonly done…

    A former director of planning on Warragamba Dam water usage on Ch 10 news last night:
    (wtte)The waste water from a Mount Piper reactor would drain into the headwaters of Cox’s River, which drains into Warragamba dam, which supplies 95% of Sydney’s water.

    Fancy a real atomic cocktail in 2045? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_(cocktail)
    ========================================================

    Think how much they will save in chlorination though. No need to chlorinate already sterile water. Should be good for a few thousand years too.

  26. Dutton as PM would be a very bad day for Oz…
    Based on the quality of the comments from the people who support him here it suggests a Hungarian-style ‘democracy’ would be on the cards – or worse.

  27. It’s also funny that the Teals and Greens accuse “Labor and LNP” as having the same climate & energy policy, while the LNP accuse “Labor and the Greens” as having the same policy.

  28. I fear for some of our more diverse communities under a Dutton PMship.

    I also fear for what powers may be given to the AFP and our security agencies to use against Australian citizens.

  29. It may just have dawned on even the most totally obtuse posters that Labor and Liberals are NOT same old same old when it comes to climate action.

  30. sealion @ #1872 Saturday, June 22nd, 2024 – 5:59 pm


    Japanese eye investment in Australian nuclear rollout
    Japan’s giant energy trading houses would consider helping to pay for a nuclear rollout in Australia in return for decades-long investment returns, industry insiders say.

    https://www.afr.com/world/asia/japanese-eye-investment-in-australian-nuclear-rollout-20240620-p5jnb7

    Who the feck cares what Japanese trading houses want to do!?! Plenty more countries want to invest in Renewables in Australia and that is the responsible investment to make! Sheesh!

  31. I trust Dutton’s not losing the plot:

    ‘Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has launched a strikingly personal attack on Anthony Albanese, deriding the prime minister as a fraud, an appeaser and a “child in a man’s body” as he vowed to override premiers opposed to the construction of nuclear-power plants in their states.’

    – SMH

  32. Tricot @ #1886 Saturday, June 22nd, 2024 – 6:21 pm

    Dutton as PM would be a very bad day for Oz…
    Based on the quality of the comments from the people who support him here it suggests a Hungarian-style ‘democracy’ would be on the cards – or worse.

    Of course he would be like all the other Authoritarian leaders in what once were free democracies. Don’t forget that it was Dutton’s idea in government to introduce social media censorship if a member of the then government took offense at a criticism levelled at them online. The man can’t wait to get his hands on real power. His criticism of the PM as ‘weak’ screams that he is a political thug. I actually approve of a Prime Minister that isn’t a thug and an Authoritarian.

  33. Standing up to State premiers and trying to force an agenda past them didn’t work to well for SfM during covid with the cave dwellers in WA.

  34. Bizzcan @ #1880 Saturday, June 22nd, 2024 – 6:17 pm

    So looking back, was the media moralising Labor memes really because they (Labor) dared to communicate to the community directly rather than through the media?

    Like, the media was pissed off that they couldn’t filter and “balance” again LNP propaganda?

    So, why didn’t the media berate the Coalition over their ‘KevinO’Lemon’ meme? Or the AI-generated Indigenous supporter of the ‘No’ vote for the referendum?

    Anyway, the Coalition have shot themselves in the foot now because they are going to look like rank hypocrites the first meme they bring out about Labor going forward.

  35. I think the WA Libs are committed to gas at Collie.
    If emissions targets don’t matter it’s a wonder Dutton not backing coal there.
    More jobs with a mine. And cheaper.
    Then a 10th term liberal government can go nuke in collie in 2055 having built the other six plants.

  36. frednksays:
    Saturday, June 22, 2024 at 6:07 pm
    Does a comment reveal comments newer than 1.30.
    ==============================================

    Matthew 7.7: “Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you.”

  37. Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #1894 Saturday, June 22nd, 2024 – 6:51 pm

    Standing up to State premiers and trying to force an agenda past them didn’t work to well for SfM during covid with the cave dwellers in WA.

    As a former ‘cave dweller’ in WA at the time I was very happy with McGowan’s stance on borders. And Qld had similar lockout rules.

    When I moved to Sydney in 2021 it was my WA drivers licence that allowed me to travel to Qld to see family I’d not see in years. If I’d had NSW identification I’d have been refused entry, and they actually were refusing entry to Victorians and NSW residents – this was the time of that Sydney Airport driver who went to Bondi Junction and caused that 2nd or 3rd (or 4th?) wave of COVID in Sydney resulting in lockdowns across the state.

  38. The UK’s flagship Hinkley nuclear power plant was announced in 2007with an estimated completion date of 10 years, and a cost of £9 billion. However, it remains unfinished, with the latest estimated completion date being 2031, and the cost has now risen to a staggering £92.5 billion!

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