On the eve of the Tasmanian state election, the print edition of The Mercury (no report online that I can see) reports polling conducted a fortnight ago for an undisclosed private client by Freshwater Strategy points to a seats result of Liberal 15, Labor nine, Greens four, Jacqui Lambie Network three and independents four. The poll reached 800 respondents in each of the five electorates, with the report relating results in Lyons of Liberal 38%, Labor 23%, Greens 13% and JLN and independents 11% each; in Bass of Liberal 40%, Labor 26%, Greens 10% and JLN 10%; in Braddon of Liberal 49%, Labor 15%, JLN 13% and independents 10%; in Clark of Liberal 26%, Labor 21%, Greens 20% and independents 28%; and in Franklin of Liberal 33%, Labor 27%, Greens 13% and independents 17%. The independent results would seem to bode well for John Tucker in Lyons and David O’Byrne in Franklin, and for two independents to be elected in Clark inclusive of incumbent Kristie Johnston.
For a good deal more on Tasmanian state election polling, see Kevin Bonham. I am presently in my usual election eve scramble to get my live results facility in place, which if all goes well will offer results by party down to booth level (which in 2021 at least were unique to this site) in both tabular and mapped form.
Can we please keep this thread relevant to the Tasmanian election. The open thread for general discussion is here.
With a primary vote way down in the low 20s statewide, and worse in the north, can we see federal implications? The seats are 3 Lib, 1 Lab, 1 Indi at the moment. Do we now face the prospect that Labor won’t get any back at the next federal election?
MI: I can’t see Julie Collins losing Franklin in a hurry.
As for the Mercury polling: it’s consistent with my impression that Labor is not making up any ground at all and is possibly going backwards . But I would still predict that they will get 10-11 seats rather than 9. And also that the Libs could get to 16-17.
I’m still highly sceptical about Tucker getting back in and also wonder if Johnston has made enough of an impact to retain her seat. In light of the antipathy between the two women, it would be amusing if Hickey gets elected partly on the back of liberal voter disgruntlement at the treatment of Archer.
But there’s no doubt it will be a bad night for Labor. And probably for the Greens too.
meher baba @ #3 Friday, March 22nd, 2024 – 7:11 am
Poorly written by me, I mean Bass, Braddon and Lyons.
I think Julie Collins is pretty safe in Franklin, and Labor will probably win Clark back whenever Andrew Wilkie retires, but Lyons was a close run victory for them last time(and it’ll be similarly thus in 2025).
Bass and Braddon are off the table for a while – Bridget Archer would have a high personal vote in Bass, despite her obvious differences with Dutton.
Braddon looks like it’s getting worse and worse for Labor as time goes on.
In terms of the state election, it’ll be a status quo result, a minority Liberal Government, propped up by 3 or 4 JNL MPs and one or two other independents. The Greens will win their usual 4 or 5 seats. It looks like a dreadful result for state Labor – Rebecca White needs to step down after the election, and they should hand over the reins to Dean Winter, who seems to me to be the only one who can rebuild that party and give them some sort of chance in 4 years time.
And the result will probably tell us that the majority of people in Tasmania want that new stadium.
MI: “Poorly written by me, I mean Bass, Braddon and Lyons.”
Labor already has Lyons and, while Mitchell is a so-so MP, the demographics of the seat are on Labor’s size, as the population of the northern suburban areas continues to grow.
I think Braddon is going to be hard for Labor for some time to come, again because of changing demographics.
Bass is always gettable, but Archer is a pretty strong local candidate – the strongest in that seat for a long time – and might buck the “ejector seat” trend for another election or two.
Democracy Sausage: “Rebecca White needs to step down after the election, and they should hand over the reins to Dean Winter, who seems to me to be the only one who can rebuild that party and give them some sort of chance in 4 years time.”
I’ve had occasional work-related engagements with Winter on and off for over a decade and, while I have always found him to be sensible and reasonable to deal with, I simply can’t see the Messiah-like qualities in the guy that others appear to perceive in him. I can’t help wondering if Janie Finlay – former mayor of Launceston and good parliamentary performer – mightn’t be a better option.
So much for the much vaunted federal intervention in the Tasmanian branch, looks like they’ll go backwards compared to the previous state election.
And Rockcliff down there seems to lead a very moderate sort of state Liberal government, at least that’s my view from this distance, despite the fact that Eric Abetz obviously will get elected to parliament(and we know what an ideological warrior he is for the far right).
Democracy Sausage: “And Rockcliff down there seems to lead a very moderate sort of state Liberal government, at least that’s my view from this distance, despite the fact that Eric Abetz obviously will get elected to parliament(and we know what an ideological warrior he is for the far right).”
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Abetz or, failing him, Ferguson taking charge of the Libs is probably Labor’s best change of boosting its prospects in the medium term.
I have to say that I’ve been somewhat surprised at the rather low key campaigning Abetz has undertaken in Franklin: at least in the part where I live. He probably doesn’t see much point in doing so, as just about everyone knows who he is and what he stands for.
Abetz has huge name recognition, for good or bad, he wouldn’t need to campaign.
What price would the JLN exact from the Liberals for backing them in government, assuming that’s going to be the washup of Saturday?
Tasmania ought to be a Labor state, it really should be, so what’s gone wrong down there for Labor, other than the obvious factional squabbles and disunity over the past 10 years or so?
meher baba @ #8 Friday, March 22nd, 2024 – 8:01 am
Northern leaders do seem to do better than southern leaders. I havent crunched the numbers but I think that there’s been more northern premiers than southern.
Democracy Sausage @ #11 Friday, March 22nd, 2024 – 8:14 am
Working class has abandoned the Labor party, similarly to the US democrats. We’re seeing the next stage of voters abandoning the majors. The Greens take up the space of the mainland teals. Far right like PHON doenst really work in Tasmania, so JLN will hoover up the moderate Libs and the cracker Labor right
One last comment from me for now.
“…Labor will probably win Clark back whenever Andrew Wilkie retires.”
Perhaps. Labor’s stocks have never been lower south of Creek Road.* In the northern suburbs, the Labor vote at the state level has been impacted by the advent of Kristie Johnston, and the support for Wilkie in the area is also quite strong. So I think the whole electorate is now quite comfortable with having a member who does not come from one of the major parties.
If the Greens had a really strong candidate, they’d probably be in with a shot. Maybe Hobart mayor Anna Reynolds (not formally a Green these days, but Green-adjacent) could have a crack, although I don’t think she’d get much traction in the northern suburbs.
It’ll be an interesting race when the day comes. Labor better not repeat the mistake of running with a nepo baby like they did when they lost the seat (then Denison) to Wilkie in 2010. They’ll need to find a really strong candidate: although that’s easier said than done down here. Lisa Singh would be good, but I don’t think the local branch would be prepared to swallow that bitter pill.
*for mainlanders, this is the dividing line between the affluent inner city and Sandy Bay parts of Clark and the poorer northern suburbs: a line also known locally as “the Flannelette Curtain” or the “Latte Line.”
Democracy Sausage: “What price would the JLN exact from the Liberals for backing them in government, assuming that’s going to be the washup of Saturday?”
They have put forward nothing whatsoever in the way of policy priorities.
However, I suspect that, mirroring Jacqui’s Brian Harradinesque “what’s in this for Tassie?” strategy for getting something in exchange for her vote on each and ever bill in the Senate, it’s going to be something along the lines of “what’s in this for northern Tasmania and the rural parts of the centre and south?” I think that choosing not to run candidates in Clark was a bit of a statement to this effect.
And now I’d better go and do something else.
JLN would have to ask for something very visible and deliverable, at least started, before the next election. The obvious one is a hospital, but also a very large high school in one of the north cities.
I don’t suppose anybody knows how JLN and independent preferences are likely to flow?
My guess is they’ll probably mostly exhaust or scatter all over the place, so won’t have much impact, but if they don’t they might be important in one or two electorates, especially Braddon.
With respect to the latest polling for the Tasmanian state election, in the case of the seat of Braddon, there is no percentage figure indicating support for the Greens. Has it been included in the 10% for Independents or accidentally not listed?
With respect to the latest polling for the Tasmanian state election, in the case of the seat of Braddon, there is no percentage figure indicating support for the Greens. Has it been included in the 10% for Independents or accidentally not listed?
Robbo: “With respect to the latest polling for the Tasmanian state election, in the case of the seat of Braddon, there is no percentage figure indicating support for the Greens. Has it been included in the 10% for Independents or accidentally not listed?With respect to the latest polling for the Tasmanian state election, in the case of the seat of Braddon, there is no percentage figure indicating support for the Greens. Has it been included in the 10% for Independents or accidentally not listed?”
I suspect it’s omitted simply because it’s less than 10 per cent. Braddon is traditionally the Greens’ worst seat, for the same reasons that it is the Liberals’ best. It’s quite rural, with a working-class population in the larger towns that is becoming increasingly frustrated by diminishing opportunities due to factory closures and the like. My impression is that its also the part of Tasmania where the lowest number of refugees from the mainland have settled: a group which is a strong Greens constituency.
Dr KB just posted his aggregate.
Edit: I know he’s being cautious and rigorous but it would be nice if there was the less cautious model that looks at the other recent polls. Just as an added paragraph.
EightES: “I don’t suppose anybody knows how JLN and independent preferences are likely to flow?
My guess is they’ll probably mostly exhaust or scatter all over the place, so won’t have much impact, but if they don’t they might be important in one or two electorates, especially Braddon.”
They can’t exhaust (or, at least, not right away) because the JLN is only running 3 candidates in 4 seats. The candidates who I reckon would be really hoping to benefit from them would be the independents Garland in Braddon, Tucker in Lyons and O’Byrne in Franklin. I suspect O’Byrne might end up being the greatest beneficiary as I wouldn’t expect any JLN candidates to remain in the count for as long as they will in Braddon (because Jacqui lives there) and Lyons (because Pfitzner seems to be the party’s strongest candidate in any seat).
Beyond the independents, my gut tells me that they might flow more to Labor than the Libs, because I feel that JLN voters are more likely to be frustrated usually Labor voters than frustrated usually Liberal voters.
Perhaps it’s wishful thinking on my part, but I’m still anticipating that the JLN will underperform relative to how they are polling (a bit like what tends to happen with the Greens) so that it is possible that none of their candidates will get elected. Then their preferences are likely to be significant in all four seats in which they are running.
As I say, the post count fortnight or so is going to be super interesting, as will the subsequent negotiations to form a government.
Meher Baba
“Labor already has Lyons and, while Mitchell is a so-so MP, the demographics of the seat are on Labor’s size, as the population of the northern suburban areas continues to grow.”
There won’t be a redistribution this term but Lyons is well over quota and Clark well under quota so Lyons will lose quite a few of those Northern Hobart Labor votes to either Clark or Franklin – depending on what adjustment there is also between Clark and Franklin. Interesting to note that those northern Hobart areas in Lyons swung heavily to the Libs in 2022.
Speaking of negotiations to form government, I haven’t given up hope of Labor pulling it out of the fire.
I know it’s a bit of a long shot, but if Labor or the Greens can scrounge one more seat off PB’s and KB’s projections at the Liberals’ expense, that would leave them (Labor + Greens) with the same total seats as the Liberals. This is significant because everybody knows (everybody with any sense, anyway) that the Greens would never support a Liberal government on confidence and supply, so JLN and independents would be forced to choose between two equal blocs when they play kingmakers. And the Liberals can usually be relied upon to be hopeless negotiators.
And please note I’m not suggesting Labor and Greens would for a coalition, only that when forced to choose a side for confidence and supply, the Greens would never pick the Liberals.
Oh, and when I double-checked just now, on KB’s projection a move of one seat to Labor at Liberals’ expense would, in fact, put Labor plus Greens one seat ahead rather than level. So yeah, I’m not giving it away just yet.
Blackburnseph: “Interesting to note that those northern Hobart areas in Lyons swung heavily to the Libs in 2022.”
A function of the fact that, as I said, Brian Mitchell is a so-so MP. Being MP for Lyons is an extremely difficult job: so many distinct localities to deal with, all with their own differing priorities. But as found when I did some campaigning and polling booth work for him last election he doesn’t seem to be particularly well-liked, even by those people who told me they were going to vote for him.
Dr KB updates his aggregate include a new poll.
Lyons is now super interesting with 3 candidates projected to get 0.8 of a quota, with the prefs determining if JLN pick up their 3rd seat or the Libs picking up their 15th seat. So we’d see a busted flush for a Lib/JLN/Indi government as they seem to be fighting over the same spot in Lyons. The Indi (ex-lib) is John Tucker one of the causes of this early election.
EightES: “Speaking of negotiations to form government, I haven’t given up hope of Labor pulling it out of the fire.
I know it’s a bit of a long shot, but if Labor or the Greens can scrounge one more seat off PB’s and KB’s projections at the Liberals’ expense, that would leave them (Labor + Greens) with the same total seats as the Liberals. This is significant because everybody knows (everybody with any sense, anyway) that the Greens would never support a Liberal government on confidence and supply, so JLN and independents would be forced to choose between two equal blocs when they play kingmakers. And the Liberals can usually be relied upon to be hopeless negotiators.
And please note I’m not suggesting Labor and Greens would for a coalition, only that when forced to choose a side for confidence and supply, the Greens would never pick the Liberals.
Oh, and when I double-checked just now, on KB’s projection a move of one seat to Labor at Liberals’ expense would, in fact, put Labor plus Greens one seat ahead rather than level. So yeah, I’m not giving it away just yet.”
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Sadly, by my assessent, the only additional seatsthat Labor can conceivably hope to win above the 10 predicted by KB is a third in Lyons, and that is still extremely unlikely and would probably to come at the expense of the Greens rather than the Libs. Even more unlikely would be their getting a third seat in Franklin at the expence of O’Byrne.
But the negotiations will still be fascinating although, as many have suggested, it will almost inevitably all boil down to the question of to whom the JLN will be prepared to guarantee supply in exchange for some sort of package of goodies (I can’t see JLN ever agreeing to become part of a coalition government).
And, if the JLN – plus Sue Hickey and any other right-wing independents who get elected (eg Tucker) – back the Libs, then an early election called by Rockliff because he could no longer tolerate relying on the support of a crossbench that would sometimes vote against his legislation will be back in government relying on the support of a crossbench that will sometimes vote against his legislation. Go figure.
This is my final prediction:
15 Lib
10 Lab
4 Gre
2 JLN
4 Indi ( O’Byrne(Franklin), Tucker (Lyons), Hickey & Johnston (Clark))
Lyons breaks bad for JLN, Libs pick up their 15th seat there and John Tucker gets back in. Variations in Lyons will be what dictates the final outcome by one seat either to JLN, with Libs holding or losing a seat, i.e. Tucker doesn’t get back in.
Yeah – if Labor’s vote does go backwards state-wide, even if they’re close in terms of seats, which is still possible, I don’t see any scenario where the Libs don’t end up back in Government.
This really has been a pretty horrid campaign from Labor, likely reflecting the general mood on the ground, the Liberals haven’t sufficiently shit the bed to justify them being removed AND they’re not yet trusting Labor to be back in power.
It’s hard to enthusiastically sell to an electorate who just don’t seem super keen to listen.
Has Bridget Archer even sown up her pre-selection in Bass?
If not, it is well plausible for the Liberal Party to pre-select a more conservative candidate for this key seat, and leave Archer to either run as an independent or retire.
MelbourneMammoth @ #30 Friday, March 22nd, 2024 – 12:52 pm
Last I heard that pre-selection was being held up, and that Dutton had not publicly intervened yet. If the Libs do that then they’ll hand the seat back to Labor. As popular as Bridget is I’m not sure she could hold it once the vote gets split.
SMH Nov 23 https://archive.md/gCGFd
Guardian March 24 (near the end there’s a single paragraph) https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/mar/08/a-big-boys-club-senior-liberal-women-fight-to-solve-the-partys-gender-problem
I believe there is a slim chance the Libs could make it to 4 in Braddon, Bass and Lyons and 3 in Franklin and Clark to get a majority. Would mean they would need their vote to be evenly spread over their candidates to strengthen the Lib vote and for the other parties and independents to be weakened as is possible with the Hare Clarke system
Super Duper: “I believe there is a slim chance the Libs could make it to 4 in Braddon, Bass and Lyons and 3 in Franklin and Clark to get a majority. Would mean they would need their vote to be evenly spread over their candidates to strengthen the Lib vote and for the other parties and independents to be weakened as is possible with the Hare Clarke system”
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They should get to 4 in Braddon and are a chance in Bass. Lyons would be a massive stretch given that the polls are currently giving them less than 3 seats.
3 in Clarke is looking hard to get on latest poll too
A reminder that my aggregate is just a “what the polls say”, not a prediction, there are some things in there I raise an eyebrow at but second-guessing is risky! The past five elections aggregation has worked well, someday the polls will be wrong and it will be useless as with federal 2019. I am pleased with the diversity of polls though – would be nice to have a fresher one which I’ve heard might be coming tonight.
The headline aggregation now includes all polls this year except the first mystery poll which was about 35-28 so wouldn’t move the dial. The seat breakdowns include everything I can get my hands on that’s a number from the past seven months.
A Newspoll tonight?
Tomorrow night should be fascinating, particularly in terms of the JNL and how well they perform in reality in the 4 electorates they’re standing in.
This is Rebecca White’s 3rd election for Labor – surely if she loses this one as badly as the last one, it’s time for a new leader, be it Dean Winter or someone else?
looking at the polls their is only one possible outcome for the Tasmanian election and that is a coalition of the parties that represent the middle class; Liberal-greens. Good luck with that.
I think the closest mainland analogue to JLN is SA-Best which at one point was tipped to gain an absolute swathe of seats but couldn’t reach critical mass to win any in SA’s lower house. I suspect it will look similar for JLN except for the mores of Hare-Clark.
‘… a coalition of the parties that represent the middle class; Liberal-greens …’
— – – – –
It’s the obvious coalition, on paper, small businessmen and environmentalists, but The Greens Party isn’t run by environmentalists, it’s run by the extreme Left.
I’m tipping a boil over.
My (biased) hunch is that the electorate will wake up tomorrow asking themselves why the bloody hell are we having an election,…….. the answer is because the libs can’t govern themselves. Do they deserve to be re-elected?
The answer is no. The question is, what are they going to do about it.
Mabwm
I think that’s wishful thinking.
My hunch is that the undecideds will wake up asking themselves “Who’s going to give us the most stable and competent government?”
Whether enough late deciders will stick with the status quo or decide “It’s time for a change” idk, but I do think it’s the two biggest parties who will mop up more of the late deciders.
What everyone posting on here seems to be overlooking is how old the poll is that has just been released. I’m not sure what (new) it really tells us.
I’m not close enough to tell how the debate this week was received, but if RW did decently – and she already has preferred Premier ratings much closer to JR than Labor is polling closely to Lib – then Labor may just surprise to the upside tomorrow vs. the none-too-recent polling.
gympie
And nowhere more extreme than in Tassie, surely?
Kevin Bonham,
Thanks for all your expert posts and opinion, and above all thanks for always treating my posts with respect no matter how obvious it it is I really don’t know what I’m talking about.
I really appreciate you taking time to answer posts like mine, and I want you to know that.
This all sounds like musical chairs post the election. Who are the dance partners for the liberals. …..the greens? Jln? Mr Tucker? Mr Garland? Ms Hickey? The 2 left independents? The dance music stops…..then what happens? ….. a no confidence motion?To paraphrase a earlier contributor…. the bed sheets need changing…. because they smell
Liberals 2 in Clark
Liberals 2 in Franklin
Liberals 3 in Lyons
Liberals 3 in Bass
Liberals 3 in Braddon
Throw in +1 for good luck
14?
It’s looking like the late poll that was expected was just a case of confusion regarding the THA Freshwater poll which appeared first as a mystery poll on Sky News then had a more useful writeup in today’s Mercury – I think someone was aware the latter was coming and didn’t realise it was already in a sense out.
So yeah one weakness of this polling is that while we have as much of it as for any Tas election in a long time, we have no data since approx March 9.
I’ll be working at the Mercury tomorrow night 6-11, then a short break then resuming on my website probably through to 3 am or so if energy permits!
It’s a bummer not having any election eve polling, albeit that’s not new for Tassie.
It does make me think, as I suspect Dr B also thinks, that the suggestion that as much as 40 per cent of the population is going to vote for someone other than a major party candidate is more than a little overstated. As polling day approaches, voters tend to become a little less pissed off with the major parties, and a bit more inclined to stick with what they know.
I’m still particularly struggling with the comparatively good numbers for the Greens in Dr B’s aggregate table: 13.2 per cent statewide. Partly because of this, I’m expecting Labor to do a little bit better than 25 per cent, although that probably isn’t going to bring them any extra seats, except possibly in Lyons.
I don’t think Dr B has given a prediction as such, but his projection from his aggregate is 15 Lib, 10 Labor, 4 Green, 3 JLN and 3 Independents (seemingly O’Byrne, Hickey and Johnston).
MI has gone 15-10-4-2-4 (with Tucker also winning)
FWIW, I’m going 16-11-3-2-3. I’m predicting that Labor will get a third seat in Lyons ahead of the Greens, and that the Libs will get 4 in Bass and JLN will miss out there.
Name candidates matter so much in Tassie elections, and JLN doesn’t have any in Bass, but does sort of have one in Pfitzner in Lyons, who seems to be well-known and well-liked in the numerically significant Brighton-Bridgwater-Gagebrook area on the northern fringes of Hobart.
And the Greens vote in Lyons have been overstated by pollsters in the past: it must be one of the most difficult electorates in the country in which to conduct polling
I think Tucker is an outside chance to pip Troy to the post, but I’m backing Troy.
I’d encourage other posters to put up their predictions (I realise it’s tricky).
Anyway, off to vote shortly. Most of you would have no idea what a surreal experience voting in a Tassie election is for someone who is not to the manner born (and I’m not, even after voting in half a dozen of the buggers). It’s all very quiet and serious. There are no signs, nobody handing out how to vote cards, just a few cake stalls. Quite unsettling.
We’re off to vote now as a family, taking the twins to the big playground next to the polling both, kind of like parliament really.