Following the closure of nominations yesterday, today was the day candidates were announced and ballot paper draws conducted. My election guide has been updated accordingly with full candidate lists in ballot paper order on each electorate page, and I’ve also been very busy supplementing it with a few formerly missing bits: more candidate photos and bios, full results of by-elections in the five seats that have had them over the past term, and a fair bit of work on the Legislative Council guide now that I know exactly what’s going on there, which is always obscure until candidate details are published.
The number of candidates is little changed on last time: 562 in the lower house compared with 568, and 21 upper house groups compared with 20. One Nation and the Liberal Democrats are both running in 17 seats compared with 12 and 10 respectively last time; there are 68 lower house independents, up from 52; Animal Justice are down from 48 to 33; Shooters Fishers and Farmers are down from 25 to 20; and Sustainable Australia are up from 55 to 82. Notable absences this time are Keep Sydney Open, Australian Conservatives and the Christian Democrats, who respectively ran in 42, 19 and 18 lower house seats in 2019. New to the game are Legalise Cannabis with 23 lower house candidates and Informed Medical Options with 10, plus a couple of others.
Of note:
• In the Legislative Council, the first two columns have gone to high-profile figures of the right, although neither are part of a registered party, which should put a crimp on their chances. In column A is a ticket headed by Lyle Shelton, high-profile former managing director of the Australian Christian Lobby and a leading figure in the campaign against same-sex marriage. Group B is a ticket headed by Craig Kelly, who remains the national director of the United Australia Party, which is not registered in New South Wales. A membership revolt against John Ruddick’s dumping as lead Liberal Democrats candidate evidently succeeded, as he heads the party’s ticket at Group J, one spot next to the Coalition at Group I. The party does quite a lot better when it is well to the left of the Liberals, and thus the first party with liberal in the name that most voters encounter. Labor are in group D, while the Greens and One Nation have both drawn short straws at groups Q and R on a ticket that extends to Group U. UPDATE: Antony Green points out that the Craig Kelly and Silvana Nile tickets, along with some lesser-known ones, have neglected to nominate 15 candidates, which means that while they will get their own column on the ballot paper, they will not have above-the-line boxes, so those wishing to vote for them will have to number candidates individually – presumably reducing their chances from little to none.
• A surprise late development has been the emergence of outgoing Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons as the Liberal candidate in Kiama, which will be defended by Liberal-turned-independent member Gareth Ward. The party’s candidate review committee last week rejected its only existing nominee the seat, Gail Morgan. Gibbons was defeated for preselection in her existing seat and repeatedly overlooked for a position on the Legislative Council ticket, despite Dominic Perrottet having promised her a position in the ministry when she was persuaded not to pursue the federal seat of Hughes. Perrottet says Gareth Ward’s suspension should continue as long as he faces sexual assault charges.
• Fairfield mayor Frank Carbone will not after all be running in Cabramatta, or backing another independent in Fairfield. As the Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column noted this morning, Carbone finally came off the fence after Labor promised $115 million for an upgrade of Fairfield Hospital.
Other news:
• Max Maddison of The Australian reported on Monday that an unidentified Liberal MP believed the party’s situation was “mirroring the federal election: holding up quite well in Sydney’s west but seeing significant swings across middle Sydney”. In particular, “the swing now appeared to be on in seats like Ryde, Parramatta and Oatley”, and pessimistic noises were further made about Penrith and East Hills in view of their narrow margins. A “senior Liberal minister” was quoted saying “Parramatta is dead”, adding credence to a report from Seven News on Sunday that the party’s internal polling pointed to a 10% swing, more than sufficient to account for a margin of 6.5%. Efforts to take back Coogee from Labor had been abandoned, and there was “a degree of risk” from teal independents in North Shore, Pittwater, Willoughby and Wakehurst, although Vaucluse candidate Kellie Sloane was “doing well and likely to be elected”.
• Antony Green has prepared a splendidly detailed file showing how candidates’ preferences flowed in each seat in 2019, based on the lower house ballot paper data which New South Wales uniquely provides.
Thanks William for the link to Antony Green’s file re preference flows of the minor candidates seat by seat, including exhaustion rates, specific to NSW.
remember the little known crime comition report on pockies and the cashlis gaming card was seposed to be the ishue that would swing votes toperottit the same premier who lobeyed for the new casino 0000no thatmo body asked for minns anowsedd a trial then perottit took a week and a bit when publick had moved on i dont think any body cared it was a campaign buy the usual suspects and the herald to save perottit wonder what former clubs nsw oficial toby williams liberal wakehurst thinks of it
Cashless gaming will, according to Perrottet come in 2028 (so two election cycles away) and the pubs and clubs that are ripping mega profits are going to be given more tax payer money. Strange areas.
Thank you William for another comprehensive election guide
If the betting agencies are to be trusted, Labor are favourites to win 42 seats, that would leave Minns 5 seats short of an overall majority.
Dr Doolittle @ Thursday, March 9, 2023 at 10:13 pm
“Thanks William for the link to Antony Green’s file re preference flows of the minor candidates seat by seat, including exhaustion rates, specific to NSW.”
Sweet! Thanks William!
I am noting a distinct decrease in corflutes this time round. How goes it for others?
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2023/03/nsw-2023-legislative-council-preview.html
NSW 2023 Legislative Council Preview And Advice On Effective Voting
Aaron newtonsays:
Thursday, March 9, 2023 at 10:22 pm
remember the little known crime comition report on pockies and the cashlis gaming card was seposed to be the ishue that would swing votes toperottit the same premier who lobeyed for the new casino 0000no thatmo body asked for minns anowsedd a trial then perottit took a week and a bit when publick had moved on i dont think any body cared it was a campaign buy the usual suspects and the herald to save perottit wonder what former clubs nsw oficial toby williams liberal wakehurst thinks of it
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Not surprising that it all died in the arse. Minns simply neutralised it and moved on, leaving Dom sitting like a shag on a rock.
Evan says:
Thursday, March 9, 2023 at 10:45 pm
If the betting agencies are to be trusted, Labor are favourites to win 42 seats, that would leave Minns 5 seats short of an overall majority.
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That maybe exactly how it pans out on election night.
But in answer to your question ‘can betting agencies be trusted’ we only need to look back to the 2019 federal poll outcome to answer that.
Not only did they get it terribly wrong predicting a Labor victory, some of the idiots paid out on a Labor win two days before the results came in, supposedly to the tune of over $5,000,000.
Now FFS how on earth could you trust any betting agency with that record ever again.
I’m surprised they are still in business.
The place must be run by monkeys.
No, that is unfair to the monkeys.
I can only presume everyone was sacked and they started from scratch.
HELLO !
98.6@12:02 am
Yes, HELLO!
WB:”Fairfield mayor Frank Carbone will not after all be running against Labor in Cabramatta, or backing another independent in Fairfield. ”
I wonder what will people like Lars and Moderate do without Carbone interfering in the election?
They have to throw away atleast one needle.
WB: “A surprise late development has been the emergence of outgoing Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons as the Liberal candidate in Kiama.”
Indeed a surprise. Is DoPe behind this move or is it Kean?
NSW Liberals are really falling apart.
The noteworthy thing about this campaign is that although the media doesn’t support NSW Labor, which is expected and to an extent reasonable because of NSW Labor is unable to capture voters imagination like Bob Carr Labor, they are not gung-ho about NSW Liberals. There is mild justified criticism of Liberals and Nats.
I think NSW Nats will hold their own even though Barilaro crapped all over LNP and NSW people. Barilaro factor seems to affect NSW Liberals than NSW Nats. Is it because he diverted all Natural disaster funds to Nats constituencies?
Yes Ven so sorry old mate. How outrageous that anyone would think evenof running against the ALP in SW Sydney. In fact, why should we actually have elections at all?
After all, in this patch, the ALP has provided the inspirational Ann Stanley, Nick Lalich and Joe Tripodi. Back to business as usual.
So are we just call all urban IND running against Liberal’s “Teals” now? Even the Liberals are describing them as such, though perhaps it was the Australian doing so and misquoting the source.
Griff says:
Thursday, March 9, 2023 at 10:53 pm
I am noting a distinct decrease in corflutes this time round. How goes it for others?
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It is theoretically illegal for candidates to place corflutes on electricity poles, which had historically been the natural home for candidate corflutes. Ausgrid made some noise about it back in January. That hasn’t stopped all candidates from placing them there, or other places around the electorate, but it has had the effect of reducing their pre-election proliferation.
Around Coogee, Labor, the Greens and the Liberals have all had corflutes placed around the place. There are a very significant number placed on tree support stakes on Alison Road alongside Centennial Park. Also plenty on Belmore Road in Randwick Junction and along Arden Street in Coogee itself.
Yes Moderate, down here in South Coast, Shelley will be retired in two weeks. Trouble is, nobody can tell the difference. Go Liza!
The publicity that places like SportsBet get from early payouts like that more than makes up for the money spent on it. It’s essentially an advertising campaign. They probably made it all back and then some from problem gamblers in less than a week.
Asha, 98.6,
The decision by a betting agency to pay out has nothing to do with the result. It is simply a business decision. There is a point at which it is not worth taking any more bets so they bail on the market altogether. It is the point at which there is so little money on the other side that the agency will lose money either way. Better to bail than lose more money.
The ‘free’ advertising is worth every cent as has been mentioned. It was 4 years ago and yet we still talk about it – including those of us who do not punt.
It is still a bizarre sounding decision in what is effectively a two horse race. Agencies paid out on Hawthorn winning the 2015 flag against west coast on the Thursday before the game.
Betting is merely a reflection of what people expect the result to be. In 2023 elections are not a sure thing. Especially when media companies are players not commentators. In the current MSM, 55/45 to Labor is a hung parliament or the ALP losing ground, while 55/45 to the LNP would be a landslide. All this plays out on the palimpsest of the break down of the ‘two party system’.
We live in interesting times.
98.6 said this:
Not only did they get it terribly wrong predicting a Labor victory, some of the idiots paid out on a Labor win two days before the results came in, supposedly to the tune of over $5,000,000.
Now FFS how on earth could you trust any betting agency with that record ever again.
I’m surprised they are still in business.
The place must be run by monkeys.
No, that is unfair to the monkeys.
I can only presume everyone was sacked and they started from scratch.
Asha replied:
The publicity that places like SportsBet get from early payouts like that more than makes up for the money spent on it. It’s essentially an advertising campaign. They probably made it all back and then some from problem gamblers in less than a week.
98.6 follows on:
Yes, Barnum Circus owner once said that ‘any publicity is good publicity’.
We only have to look at drug mules Cocaine Cassy who is to appear on one of those dumb SAS shows along with her counterpart Shrapnel Corby. These two women are the cause of death and misery around the world and yet our MSM treat them like celebrities.
HELLO !
98.6 follows on:
Yes, Barnum Circus owner once said that ‘any publicity is good publicity’.
We only have to look at drug mules Cocaine Cassy who is to appear on one of those dumb SAS shows along with her counterpart Shrapnel Corby. These two women are the cause of death and misery around the world and yet our MSM treat them like celebrities.
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No doubt if Ned Kelly was alive today, we would see him on SAS or Survivor.
Maybe even on the Bachelor.
Moderate @ 8.12am.
And let us not forget Joe Tripodi’s, then floozie Meagre Reba, who was parachuted into the seat of Cabramatta, from that well known socialist paradise of Cammeray.
The media has been reasonably quiet on the Labor vs Greens contest in Balmain. You would think that was a sign that the Greens are favorites. Sportsbet would agree to this view with the Greens $1.35 and Labor $3.75. If the Greens win Balmain does this create a template for future Greens MP’s that retire their seats will remain in the Greens hands? It’s hard to say there is view from some that Balmain demographics have changed alot. It’s alot more upmarket these days then it was as the working class Labor seat of yesteryears. Which may be a deciding factor in Labor reclaiming the seat.
Also Sportsbet odds should be taken with a grain salt. In the seat of Kiama they have listed the Liberals as favorites. However, in the Guardian its reported Liberals internal polling has them coming a distant third behind Liberal turned independent Gareth Ward and Labor. However, if the Greens do retain Balmain it still will be a ominous warning sign for Labor. In terms of reclaiming seats from the Greens in either state or federal arenas where Greens Mp’s retire in the future.
Hey Macca rB
Labor won the 2PP at Cammeray in last year’s federal election. So perhaps it is (now) a “well known socialist paradise”.
Thanks for pointing that out.
Cheers
anne stanley seems a popular mp her chief of staff nathan hegarty is runing for lepington how ever this is a soft left faction seat hegarty andkelley wilckonson for some reason the soft left chose not to run murphy for a third time in stead putting him in to upper househas mostly been campaigning for his localWilkinson his seat in stead of his own safe spot
Carbone is basickly a liberal what but he would not join the prarty because the liberalswould be unlikely to winn cabramatter so he would run as a liberal backed independent he admitted that he was basickly a liberal byut pulled out as perottit did not mqatch labors comitment to fairfield hospital he all ready took over cowncil with x liberals on his ticket and got a liberal in fowler federal seat would be better if he joind the liberals as he has gone from a former labor mayor to a liberal
Conor @ Friday, March 10, 2023 at 9:43 am
“Griff says:
Thursday, March 9, 2023 at 10:53 pm
I am noting a distinct decrease in corflutes this time round. How goes it for others?
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
It is theoretically illegal for candidates to place corflutes on electricity poles, which had historically been the natural home for candidate corflutes. Ausgrid made some noise about it back in January. That hasn’t stopped all candidates from placing them there, or other places around the electorate, but it has had the effect of reducing their pre-election proliferation.
Around Coogee, Labor, the Greens and the Liberals have all had corflutes placed around the place. There are a very significant number placed on tree support stakes on Alison Road alongside Centennial Park. Also plenty on Belmore Road in Randwick Junction and along Arden Street in Coogee itself.”
Thanks Conner. I hadn’t realised that Ausgrid weighed in.
notised liberals are strugiling with candadates had to parashute Craig chung from ride to cogra and in the safe labor seat of Wolongong joe johnson who works for Crenula mp mark speakman who is also aterney general johnson attends local university and is some how involved in wolongong yung libs desbite living in the shier plus gibons parashuted in to kiama
Listening to Radio Liberal, otherwise known as 2GB in Sydney – gosh, the hatred for Matt Kean dwarfs the obvious anti Labor bias on that station. If he becomes Liberal leader after March 25, the meltdowns on that radio station and on Sky After Dark will be rather hilarious.
Yes, how dare a senior Liberal political leader in Australia be in favour of renewable energy!
Aaron Newton: Yes, all those Liberal candidates chosen at the last minute for safe Labor seats are just there to make up the numbers, that includes Craig Chung in Kogarah(who is often on the Drum on the ABC).
As for Kiama, my guess is that contest is between Gareth Ward and the Labor candidate. Does Melanie Gibbons have any community profile on the South Coast? I doubt it.
Politcal Nightwatchman says:
Friday, March 10, 2023 at 12:24 pm
The media has been reasonably quiet on the Labor vs Greens contest in Balmain. You would think that was a sign that the Greens are favorites. Sportsbet would agree to this view with the Greens $1.35 and Labor $3.75.
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Asher said previously:
The publicity that places like SportsBet get from early payouts more than makes up for the money spent on it. It’s essentially an advertising campaign. They probably made it all back and then some from problem gamblers in less than a week.
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MABWM said:
Agencies paid out on Hawthorn winning the 2015 flag against west coast on the Thursday before the game.
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98.6 says:
Going on SportsBet previously paying out $5 million to backers of the Labor party two days before the result was known of the 2019 federal election, which Party will SportsBet pay out early on this time round in Balmain?
Greens @ $1.35 or Labor @ $3.75.
Now that’s a gamble in itself.
Put $100 on Labor to win Maroubra at $1.30, seems like good value compared to $1.06 for them to win Kogarah.
Evan in reply to Aaron:
Friday, March 10, 2023 at 4:32 pm
Aaron Newton: Yes, all those Liberal candidates chosen at the last minute for safe Labor seats are just there to make up the numbers, that includes Craig Chung in Kogarah(who is often on the Drum on the ABC).
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Strange way to field candidates for any election. No wonder they remain safe seats.
Both sides do it but if something unusual raises its head within a particular safe electorate, for example the sitting member is photographed in a sexual comprising position or is caught driving under the influence and/or causing a crash or death of a passenger, or their partner takes out a DV order against them etc, etc, then the candidate put in to make up the numbers will have a decent chance of winning.
The longer they have been working that electorate the more chance of them winning.
Queensland’s LNP have officially opened its process to secure candidates for the 2024 state election, in line with Opposition Leader David Crisafulli’s aim to have some political aspirants in the field by this Easter. (2023)
Mr Crisafulli has consistently pointed to his wish to have some candidates in the field for the October 2024 state election in the first few months of this year. (2023)
At the moment Crisafulli has absolutely no chance of beating Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk (PAP) but his idea of putting in candidates well before the election date is a strategic move for the LNP, that Labor should copy.
The major parties nominate candidates in hopeless seats for 2 reasons;
1. If they get more than 4% of the primary vote, the candidate is entitled to state funding in proportion to their vote. Labor candidates (and I am sure LNP) must sign this funding over to the party.
2. To staff the booths to hand out LegCo HTVs
The candidates in these seats are left to their own devices and often end up significantly out of pocket (election costs were and I think still are tax deductible)
Perrottett in Kogarah today – no doubt more about forcing Minns to campaign more in his own seat than the Liberals having any real chance of taking the seat this time(I doubt there are any videos floating around of Minns attacking Asian immigration, a la Michael Daley in 2019).
The hapless Dom could perhaps blame my wife and myself if he loses the election. We came to Sydney today for three days and perhaps jinxed the overhead wires which fell on a train at Padstow and which had to be repaired above the tram line at Chinatown.
We caught a train at Mascot for the city and heard the guard tell people this would be the last train for some time due to an “incident” along the line. The 6pm news said that people on the affected train had been stranded for over two hours until rescued. Then in the city the light rail stops had a message saying no trams between Circular Quay and Central for technical reasons. We tentatively await what jinx we will place on the trains tomorrow and on Dom’s chances at the election.
well perottits candadate in cogra Craig chung grew up there but has spent decades in ride and wanted to run for state seat of ride befor jordan laine got preselected at least perottit is no gladis the medias focus on his personal rating means the liberal poleing must be bad now s m h has moved to hung parliament line because tthey cant acsept a labor majority
One seat Perrottett hasn’t been to is Heathcote – sitting Liberal MP in a marginal seat that is now notionally Labor after the redistribution. Liberal private polling can’t be good in that part of the world, looks like Lee Evans has been abandoned by team Dom. Instead Perrottett is wasting his time in Kogarah
citizen,
Doing your bit for Labor. 😉
William you have a photo of Freya Leach instead of Rachel Merton on the legislative council guide under Coalition
Also fair chance that the 3rd Greens candidate Lynda-June Coe will be in the running for a seat if AJP & Coalition do worse and a 2011 style outcome repeats
Also Legalise Cannabis has 2 seats in WA parliament not 1
So I do. Fixed.
also based on matt keans comments today its clear the independent is leading in north shore and liberals in trouble where can i find a list of all upper house candadates for this election
98.6 said this previously:
Not only did they get it terribly wrong predicting a Labor victory, some of the idiots paid out on a Labor win two days before the results came in, supposedly to the tune of over $5,000,000.
Now FFS how on earth could you trust any betting agency with that record ever again.
I’m surprised they are still in business.
The place must be run by monkeys.
No, that is unfair to the monkeys.
I can only presume everyone was sacked and they started from scratch.
Asha replied:
The publicity that places like SportsBet get from early payouts like that more than makes up for the money spent on it. It’s essentially an advertising campaign. They probably made it all back and then some from problem gamblers in less than a week.
MABWM says:
The ‘free’ advertising is worth every cent as has been mentioned. It was 4 years ago and yet we still talk about it – including those of us who do not punt. ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
I’ve learnt a valuable lesson on betting today.
That is, if I want to place a bet on anything I should put it on with Sportbet because if I lose I may still get the same payout as if I won.
That’s where the saying “That’s a win win situation” comes from, no doubt.
Are SportsBet really that stupid or was it a one off gigantic stuff-up, that cost them $5 million.
As MABWM also said “We live in interesting times”.
I think I’ll stick to my lotteries tickets, they came good several years ago, with the major prize.
“Evan says:
Thursday, March 9, 2023 at 10:45 pm
If the betting agencies are to be trusted, Labor are favourites to win 42 seats, that would leave Minns 5 seats short of an overall majority.”
Those 5 seats could be the Teals seats mentioned in William’s article… Are we heading for an ALP+Teals government in NSW?… Perhaps there will be a proper ALP government, but the possibility of an ALP+Teals government is rather intriguing.
Except they’re not. The betting market favourites are ALP 42 L-NP 42 Green 3 IND 6 (none of them teals); good luck working out who governs if that is correct. (It probably won’t be.)
Well if the ALP + Greens = 45 seats it has to be a Labor Government. The ALP would have the momentum and a significantly higher chance of putting together a stable configuration.
But if the LNP could somehow get to 43 seats it becomes interesting.
How John Barilaro monetized politics
https://youtu.be/VWZkANkNYo4
The last few days have been good for the ALP. Carbone not running should mean Fairfield and Cabramatta stay in the ALP column. The rail system problems of the last week will have reminded voters that while the LNP have done a great job building the metro system, they have neglected the more important heavy rail system.
For what it’s worth, the betting markets have slightly eased on an ALP government, from 1.20 to 1.22. But there is a disconnect with the seat markets, which show Labor flipping just 4 seats (East Hills, Penrith, Parramatta & Riverstone), Ward retaining Kiama as an Independent, and all other seats staying the same. That would make the new parliament 42 ALP, 41 LNP, 3 Greens and 7 Indies, of whom 5 would be very likely to support the LNP (Ward, McGirr, 3 ex-SFF), with Piper being likely pro-ALP and Greenwich uncertain. Minority LNP government is possible in such a parliament. Labor really needs to be 43 minimum to be fairly confident of governing, and 44 to be quite sure.
Predictably the Sydney print and TV media are all very anti Minns this week, especially the usual suspects The Daily Telegraph, 2GB and Channel 9 News.
The Daily Tele all week has been true to form – cuddly feely pro Dom stories, a big writeup on Stuart Ayers and how supposedly popular he is in Penrith, and apparently hardly anyone in Kogarah knows who Chris Minns is etc.
The Sydney Morning Herald are trying to pretend they’re impartial, but I suspect at the end of the day their editorial will recommend the reelection of the Perrottett Government.
In my opinion, Labor needs to hold all the 38 seats they currently notionally have, that includes Heathcote(where the Liberal MP seems to have been abandoned by Perrottett and senior Liberals, no campaign announcements down there) and Leppington(the Libs throwing tons of resources in there, it is a dogfight by all reports between Liberal and Labor) and Bega(the one they picked up in the byelection). Then Minns needs to pick up the following: East Hills, Penrith, Parramatta, Riverstone, Winston Hills, Ryde, Upper Hunter, Goulburn(which Minns visited yesterday, seems to be competitive this time). If Labor can get to 44 seats for example, they then can do a deal with the Greens or Independents including Alex Greenwich and the bloke from Lake Macquarie.
I am not convinced by the argument that all of the 5 conservative leaning independents would support the LNP in a scenario where the ALP have more seats than the LNP, and would have got a significant swing towards them (say 4%). You would think that one or two could be peeled off, either by arguments about stable government or by other means. So as soon as the ALP gets to a solid 46 seat scenario (42 ALP, 3 Greens, Lake Macquarie) I think it’s home. That also doesn’t include Alex Greenwich, so maybe even 41 ALP seats would be sufficient, although the ‘moral’ argument, of being the largest party, may not apply then.