Eminent Victorians

Victorian state preselection news from both sides of the aisle, following Labor’s recent talent exodus and a number of challengers to Liberal incumbents in the upper house.

State polling being not what it used to be, I have resolved to make an effort in future to do occasional posts updating electorally relevant affairs in each state. Presumably we will see some polling from New South Wales and Victoria in the not too distant future, but it does not appear we will continue to get regular bi-monthly polling from Resolve Strategic now that it has wrapped up its monthly polling for Nine Newspapers.

There is much to report right now from Victoria, whose state election will be held on November 26. Four cabinet ministers announced their resignations from cabinet on Friday effective immediately, to be followed by their retirements at the November election: Deputy Premier James Merlino, Health Minister Martin Foley, Police Minister Lisa Neville and Industry Minister Martin Pakula. This has resulted in a reshuffle that has resulted in Jacinta Allan succeeding Merlino as deputy, and brought into cabinet Pascoe Vale MP Lizzie Blandthorn, Bundoora MP Colin Brooks, Oakleigh MP Steve Dimopoulos, Eastern Victoria MLC Harriet Shing and Carrum MP Sonya Kilkenny.

The retirements raise the stakes on Daniel Andrews’ request earlier in the month for Labor’s national executive to maintain its control over the state branch, which was established in the wake of the Adem Somyurek branch-stacking scandal and resulted in it determining preselections at the federal election without reference to the party rank-and-file. Reports at the time suggested most in the party expected the request would be granted.

Vacancies are now available in Merlino’s seat of Monbulk on Melbourne’s eastern fringe, held on a post-redistribution margin of 8.4%; Neville’s seat of Bellarine outside Geelong, with a margin of 11.4%; and Foley’s seat of Albert Park to the south of central Melbourne, with a margin of 12.9%; but not in Pakula’s seat of Keysborough, which has been abolished. Despite these seemingly comfortable margins, Monbulk and Bellarine in particular would be considered marginal seats in the context of a competitive election. Albert Park is of interest because it has been brought on to the Greens’ radar by the result of the federal election, at which the party came within a hair’s breadth of poaching the corresponding seat of Macnamara.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Party have an eventful round of upper house preselections to contend with. Of the seven members elected to the chamber amid the party’s disastrous result in 2018, two are retiring, one (Bernie Finn) was recently expelled from the party and three are facing preselection challengers, with only Matt Bach set for a smooth passage to the next parliament as the lead candidate for what will become the North Eastern Metropolitan region (now Eastern Metropolitan). One of the nominees for the second position in that region is Gladys Liu, the recently defeated federal member for Chisholm. Others are Ranjana Srivastava, an oncologist and Fulbright scholar who has the backing of outgoing member Bruce Atkinson; Shilpa Hedge, a software consultant; and Monica Clark, a family lawyer.

Rachel Baxendale in The Australian reports that nominees to replace Bernie Finn in Western Metropolitan, where the Liberals usually only win one seat, include Tamsin Lawrence, deputy director of workplace relations at the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and Mark Briers, a senior adviser in the Morrison government senior adviser, Fred Ackerman, an education consultant, and Jenny Matic, a staffer to Shadow Treasurer David Davis; and Fred Ackerman, an education consultant.

The party’s sole member for Northern Metropolitan region, Craig Ondarchie, is rated by Baxendale’s sources as likely to lose to one of three challengers: Evan Mulholland, communications director at the Institute of Public Affairs; Catriona Rafael, Leukemia Foundation advocate; and Owen Guest, the party’s state treasurer. In Eastern Victoria, Cathrine Burnett-Wake is being challenged by chiropractor Renee Heath; in South Metropolitan, Colleen Harkin, who was the party’s federal candidate for Macnamara, has challenged both David Davis and Georgie Crozier by nominating for all three positions at the top of the ticket. Baxendale reports this has “put noses out of joint” in the party; Harkin earlier challenged James Newbury in the lower house seat of Brighton, but found little support.

Potential new elements at the election include Climate 200, which according to The Guardian is “understood to be considering the Liberal-held marginal seats of Brighton and Kew and Labor-held Hawthorn”, and the newly established Victorians Party, launched on the back of anti-lockdown sentiment by Small Business Australia executive director Bill Lang, which if nothing else is receiving heavy publicity in the Herald-Sun.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

75 comments on “Eminent Victorians”

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  1. “Craig Ondarchie, is … likely to lose to one of three challengers: Evan Mulholland, communications director at the Institute of Public Affairs; Catriona Rafael, Leukemia Foundation advocate; and Owen Guest, the party’s state treasurer.”

    “… the newly established Victorians Party, launched on the back of anti-lockdown sentiment by Small Business Australia executive director Bill Lang, which if nothing else is receiving heavy publicity in the Herald-Sun.”

    Ah, the Unholy Trinity: the IPA, Murdoch, and the Liberal party.

  2. what liberals are retiring just atkinson in upper house suprised liberals are not doing well given andrews is unpopular

  3. Mick Quinlivan says:
    Monday, June 27, 2022 at 10:24 am
    Is Andrews really unpopular? The liberals are seen as unfit to govern..Also the result of last election makes it hard to win in one election for them. Also what do the teals
    The evidence suggests Andrews is not especially unpopular from a statewide polling perspective, but since the pandemic he has become a polarising figure- as leaders who make a strong stand on key issues often do. It is a steep mountain for the Liberals to climb, and the redistribution has made it harder for them. However I suspect that while the politically engaged see the Liberals as dysfunctional, the great mass of the population have no impression of them whatsoever. And as they say oppositions don’t win elections…etc.

    I would not be surprised if it goes close actually, with at least the likelihood or actuality of a minority ALP government – but will be pleased if it doesn’t. The likelihood of Teal style candidates threatening to take Liberal seats will make it harder for the Liberals. It will be interesting to see if we get a different style of blue collar populist independents threatening the ALP in some of those outer northern and western metro seats where the ALP went backwards at the Federal election.

  4. I strongly suspect that the Victorian Liberals won’t be able to help themselves making the following two mistakes:
    1) Banging on about lockdown when most people just want to forget about it – and thus making themselves sound unhinged.
    2) Playing up the possibility of a minority Labor government – and thus driving waverers into Labor’s arms to avoid it (as I think happened last time).

  5. The Age is noticeably running hard against Andrews now. Every aspersion that can be cast on the retirement of long serving ministers is being cast. Today they’re dragging out the Premier’s salary. Every day is something new and niggly.

    Even pre pandemic nobody thought Labor could hold onto all of the insane swing it picked up in 2018 (although also nobody thought the Liberal Party would give Matthew Guy another run…). There will be a swing back.

    But the fundamental problem for the Coalition in Victoria is that even a lot of people who dislike Andrews’ handling of the pandemic will say something like “I hate Andrews but I can’t vote for those other morons”. It’s the same problem Federal Labor had exploiting personal dislike of Howard, Abbott and Morrison the first time. You have to present a palatable alternative. Albanese succeeded on that at the recent election.

    The media’s efforts to rehabilitate Matthew Guy are no good. His card is marked. It has a lobster drawn on it.

  6. Ah, I am losing some of my contacts within the government as a result of this with some of advisers deciding it is time to move on.

    Interesting titbit is the brother of Liz Blandthorn who got the planning portfolio is a major lobbyist in planning circles in Melbourne with Hawker-Britton. So this might create some conflicts of interest and I await the exposes in either the Herald-Sun or Age when some project gets her approval from this firm.

  7. Somethingliikethat

    Agreed. James Merlino was the only surprise. He acquitted himself very well when he was acting Premier last year.
    Having said that, i always felt that Jacinta Allen was the heir apparent to take over from Andrews

  8. somethinklikethat – I think Merlino had a taste of the top job last year when Dan had his broken back. I think he decided that it is not worth the wait for the job. Also the whole pandemic took a lot of out of most of them.

    If there had not been lockdowns until the end of last year and the federal election, this reshuffle would probably have taken place a little earlier in the year (like in February) to give the newbies a better crack at their portfolios before the election.

  9. Max:

    It will be interesting to see if we get a different style of blue collar populist independents threatening the ALP in some of those outer northern and western metro seats where the ALP went backwards at the Federal election.

    Yep, especially considering there’ll be new seats with no sitting member thanks to the redistribution. Kalkallo, Greenvale and Laverton are all notionally safe ALP seats with margins above 20%, but that raises the chances of an independent getting ahead of the Libs. That happened last time in Pascoe Vale and Werribee, and almost in Melton (a bizarre mess where the Libs got under 20%, but half a dozen independents all got in each other’s way).

    Point Cook (formerly Altona) and Kororoit have retiring MPs, too. This part of Melbourne might be interesting for a change.

    Fun fact: there have been no by-elections in this term. The only other such term was 2002-06. (The numbers get beefed up in the olden days by stacks of pointless ministerial by-elections.)

  10. We have frydenberg andcroger to blame foor victorian liberals bringing back mathew guy they along with sky news mitchal campaigned heavily against Michael obrian and bernie finn hasdun labor credit with his rantings on abortion and ault right the liberals got rid of him to late to not be blamed for his extreme views

  11. The age were hoping mckenzey that they could distroy andrews over somyurek and help liberals he did make mistake of bring him back but he turned it to a win buy calling foor federal intervention and getting rid of most of somyureks bakers but keeping a few like tack and richardson so he cant be acused of geting rid of evry one while credlin damaged the liberals by her atempt to reinvent somyurek and libs joining in his read shirt stunt which was a dum tacdick

  12. Nick mckenzey is a liberal party mouth pease after hisplan to distroy vick labor buy somyurek scandle he moved on to crown which crown casino which Andrews stopt buy royal comition and ambulence ramping however his supozid investigative jernalizm did not extend to reporting on the same ishue in sa under a liberal government joind in liberals vick health in criciss

  13. Also went hard back in the day on read shirts basickly victorias phillop coorey but protends to be a real investagive jernalist buy the ocational story on succar

  14. which liberal mps are retiring apart from atkinson wonder if ritch phillleps will go blandthorn is from shoppies union no were discusing vicktoria on thisbut i remember in 2020 whenfour qld ministers retired the media ran with the government is finished and labor won liberals should not have boought back guy again and david davis should go

  15. tomyurekand herald sun are looking foor independents to chalinge labor in the suberbs funy how he cares so much about labor values that moment his sackt starts campaigning foor liberal party with help of herald sun and Niel mitchel he cant say andrews cleared out all his faction meng heng tack and tim richardson got preselectid again

  16. Not buying the mantra of Andrew being unpopular. The pins are an unelectable rabble and Victorians by and large are far more attuned to politics than most Australians.

    There is a reason it is called the Massachusetts of Victoria.

    Guy will remind voters of how bad Guy was and is.

    Another Victorian ALP landslide coming up.

  17. Andrews is very unpopular with a section of the blue collar workers, mostly the CUB crowd, who suffered in the lockdowns. It has been showing up in internal polling that the state government has conducted since the middle of last year. This did effect the Labor vote in the federal election but it meant that seats that were on 70% margins went to 60% margins. It will probably be the same at the state election.

    The likelihood of their being “blue collar” popularists who can get broad support is probably minimal as the most likely have stood for either One Nation, UAP or Liberal Democrats already and that will taint them with the majority of voters.

    As for “teal” types, their is not as much of a dislike of the Andrew’s as there was of the Morrison government (which was not loved even but its own supporters) and therefore the sear number of supporters will be less (In Kooyong, there were people who would otherwise be campaigning for the Greens or Labor volunteering for Ryan’s campaign). A failed “teal” effort is likely to hurt the “teal” brand too (but Ryan disappointingly seems to be seeking extra power for power’s sake already).

    I suspect the Liberals will make up some ground this election (maybe 8 seats) but it will not be anywhere near enough to regain government but will be enough that Guy keeps his job. This will stuff the party for the long term.

  18. Bird of Paradox, I don’t even bother reading those aaron posts. Not one. It looks like the language has been put through a garbling algorithm purposefully. It’s the kind of thing a sockpuppet does to hide their identity. I ain’t got no time for that.

  19. Re the media and Victorian politics. I have long thought that it’s not generally understood outside Victoria, or even within, that there is no pro-Labor media in a mostly Labor leaning state, and there hasn’t been for decades. Think about what you read in the Victorian based paid media, not blogs or small sites. Nearly all “left” op-eds are by small L liberals writing on social issues, people coming more from a Greens position, or other non Labor lefties who are often critical of Labor. There is no pro Labor tabloid media, like the UK Daily Mirror. The last neutral tabloid died when The Sun was merged with The Herald. Every victory state Labor has had is in the face of mostly bad publicity and critical coverage. Even the old version of The Age were really Hamerite moderate Liberals at heart. They always had a hang up about unions, even if they aligned with Labor on some issues of the day. If you want to know where their hearts were, recall all the Fairfax pundits hailing the PM Turnbull as the centrist Sun King when he was was new in the job. They wanted it to be true so much! We don’t have a 2GB , but we’ve always had a chorus of people who will say something is “bad for Labor” regardless of whether or not it turns out to be so. Especially at The Hun, but its everywhere, all the time. Labor just have to plow on regardless, and they have.

  20. Aaron’s posts are very interesting and informative, once you understand that he possibly has a condition of some sort. If you read them phonetically they make good sense.

  21. Leroy

    Pretty true – there will be countless Herald-Sun front page headlines reminiscent of their greatest ‘Dictator Dan’ hits all the way to November’s election. And a general media pile-on about the evils of lockdown, forgetting that the people of Victoria containing the ‘second wave’ in 2020 in a totally unvaccinated Australia was probably the single most crucial thing in Australia’s pandemic journey.

    As for the retirements I am not really surprised except maybe Merlino. But I think being in government during 2020-2021 would have been both extremely tiring though also fulfilling (for people who went into politics to improve society).

    Here in healthcare land I can see a tidal wave of early retirements coming especially among nurses but also many many older doctors especially GPs – I think many people in healthcare feel like they will ‘see it through’ (the pandemic) and then leave. As things are dragging on and on this ‘drip drip’ will become a river. A very similar scenario seems to be playing out in the UK – a survey suggested something like 30-40% of nurses and GPs are planning to quit in the next five years (when surveyed pre-pandemic this number was more like 10%).

    Overall I believe the 2018 election was a bit of an outlier, and Morrison knifing Turnbull a few months earlier hurt the Coalition. I may be proven wrong but I can’t see a Teal Wave like we had federally – a bit like NSW in reverse where the Shooters Fishers Farmers Party did really well in their 2019 State Election but had run out of steam by the Federal election a few months later.

    I think this election will be reasonably close, though I expect Labor to retain a majority. But I have not discounted the chance Labor may lose government. Churchill lost in 1945 after the war had ended – people wanted to move on. I only realised recently that there was no election in the UK in 1940 because of the war – so those elected on 1935 had a ten year term. Possibly easier to cancel an election in a nation with no written Constitution!

    Looking forward (not) to lots of UAP ads – will they feature ‘our next Prime Minister’? (Craig Kelly wasn’t it?)

    I may be in a minority but I think the Liberals were smart to dump O’Brien – and Guy was probably their best option. He at least has some recognition factor among the public.

    Since 1982 Labor has been in power in Victoria 30 out of 40 years. Hard to believe in what was once called ‘The jewel in the Liberals’ crown’.

    ps – I am sick of Covid – it has dominated my work life for over two years now! And it is not over by a long way.

  22. An entirely plausible scenario is that the Liberals gain a swing but lose seats, via a combination of large swings to them in outer suburban areas with few winnable seats, and swings against them in eastern/southeastern suburbs with numerous loseable ones – most of their remaining Melbourne seats are on less than 3% and none are on more than 6%.

  23. The Legislative Council looks like being a real mess after the election between the retention of group ticket voting, the right-wing micro backlash and Palmer deciding to run candidates in all Victorian seats.

  24. I think we have got a 1,000 year Victorian ALP Government, unless something really drastic and sustained occurs.

  25. If why did we lockdown gets mentioned when we have so many cases now – just remind people that on the Deaths per million people,
    Australia is sitting at 275
    Peru 6,500
    Hungary 5,000
    USA 3,000
    Sweden 2,000
    UK 2,600
    Netherlands, Canada and Denmark about 1,200 each.
    Our mid term goal of going for Covid Zero saved so many lives, saved so much money on the health system and had NSW not been stupid we would have been sitting even prettier…

  26. Tom

    I almost forgot we still have the group ticket voting in the Upper House. You may be right and the fifth successful candidate in many of the eight regions could be a microparty one.

  27. I think we’ll see a decrease in the ALPs majority but they should still be comfortably in front. There is absolutely a segment of the population that despises Andrews because of the handling of COVID but also a perception (right or wrong) that he is arrogant and “dictatorial”. This later perspective is pushed in the media pretty consistently and can be seen in the reporting of the recent resignations and elevation of Jactina Allan to deputy leader.

    With that said, many see Andrews differently, that what others view as “dictatorial” is actually decisive leadership and that as a result the current ALP government has gotten alot of things done in a state (and city) that had had very little change since Kennet got turfed in 1999.

    2018 was an astounding result for the ALP and it was always going to be a high water mark. Very few political leaders can maintain the popularity that Andrews had in 2018 (combined with the inverse view of Guy). A 2022 rehash is not going to be a vindication of Guy but a reversion to something of the mean.

    The anti-Andrews lockdown crowd aren’t going to be decisive unless some sort of thrid party movement really takes off in the outer suburbs (as others have indiciated). Even then it would have to be something in the vein of the teal movement and there’s potential there because there are reports that alot of people in the outer suburbs from Point Cook/Werribee through to Melton, around to Craigeburn/Wollert and then in the SE growth areas of Berwick/Cranbourne/Clyde belive their issues are overlooked (ignoring the staggering infrastructure investement that has happened that will directly benefit them when completed). But really there’s been no real evidence of any sort of cohesive movement getting up. Perhaps a strong indepdent or two might emerge in some areas (as others have indicated) but they’ll be fighting an ALP that hopefully won’t be complacent in these areas in the way the Liberals were in the face of the teal wave.

    My view is that the ALP will lose seats in the Eastern suburbs which no one ever thought they’d win in 2018, primarily Bayswater, Box Hill, Burwood, Hawthorn, Moun Waverly and Ringwood – although it will be interesting to see how the Chinese community views the Victorian Liberal party after the Federal result and whether that is still a factor as they are a significant community in all those seats, but primarily Box Hill, Burwood and Mount Waverly (and to a lesser extent Ringwood). Nepean should also revert back to the Liberals.

    The Greens will keen to have another go at Northcote, Richmond and maybe Albert Park (as suggested in the OP).

    The question is whether some of those seats I mentioned end up in the hands of Indepdents rather than the Liberals, particularly if there is some sort of Teal movement as has been suggested. If such a movement does gain any sort of steam then it could be both the ALP and Liberals lose seats and we start to see the emergence of some sort of inner city state movement that better represents the views of those residing in the wealthy seats such as Kew, Bulleen, Hawthorn, Caulfield, Sandringham, Brighton etc. that really are Liberal heartland.

    If the ALP did lose all the seats named above then they would be on 45 seats which is a majority of 1 seat. So you can see how a minority government is a possibility if some sort of historic swing did emerge. It just seems so unlikely that Matthew Guy is the person to be able to deliver that swing against a Premier that while divisive is still highly regarded by many voters.

  28. @BT 11:32:
    “An entirely plausible scenario is that the Liberals gain a swing but lose seats”

    I completely agree. When I look at the electoral map in Victoria, coupled with demographic shifts and current voting trends, it’s a very dire situation for the Victorian Liberals.

    I 100% think they will get a statewide swing in the 2PP of maybe 2-3%.

    But much of that will come from possibly double-digit (or close to it) swings in the outer northwest where nearly every seat is sitting on a 15-25% margin, or the outer southeast. These swings will probably only net them seat gains of Pakenham, Bass (already notionally Lib), Hastings & Nepean.

    Meanwhile, in the inner south which has been rapidly trending away from the Liberals, they hold Caulfield, Brighton & Sandringham all by less than 1%, and there’s no evidence at all to suggest that they have improved their standing since 2018 in any of those areas. Then there’s Glen Waverley, notionally held by only 1.5%, overlapping with a seat that swung 8% in May and which stands to benefit from the Suburban Rail Loop, that I think can be put in the column of a likely Labor gain too. Those 4 seats alone wipe out the most likely Liberal gains.

    And given their margins in the eastern corridor across Kew, Bulleen and Warrandyte only range from just under 4% to just under 6% too, they won’t be able to afford to take those seats for granted. While they’ll hold them, it will take valuable resources to do so, disadvantaging them from going on the offensive elsewhere.

    They just don’t have the resources, nor the broad appeal, to play offense and defense at the same time, or to target both inner suburbs and outer suburbs at the same time.

    I think if the Liberals see their future running through seats like Point Cook, Melton, Narre Warren North, Narre Warren South, Frankston, etc then they will need to focus their resources on reducing the margins there for a 2026 run, and that will probably have to come at the expense of throwing resources at the inner suburbs.

    My prediction is a small statewide swing to the Liberals but very little changing on the seat count – a few seats changing hands but for very little net change.

    Similarly, the Greens could very well win Northcote, but lose Prahran. With the Green wave through the inner south, Sam Hibbins will no doubt improve his vote and probably finish first on both the primary vote and 3PP vote, but their main problem is the very real possibility of the Liberals finishing third, making it more like Richmond where the ALP will win off Liberal preferences.

  29. On Prahran though, while that is a possibility that the ALP gain it off the Greens, I think the most likely scenario is this:

    Primary votes ranks:
    1. Greens
    2. Labor
    3. Liberals

    3PP rank:
    1. Greens
    2. Liberals (passing Labor off minor party preferences)
    3. Labor

    For a comfortable (~60-40) Greens retain in the 2CP count. So I would still predict a Greens retain, but Labor winning off Liberal preferences is a possibility because I expect the 3PP count to be so close.

    The Greens are currently WAY too far behind Labor to win Albert Park though (primary vote is 43% vs 16%), but will certainly target it to try to reduce that gap for 2026.

  30. Chris
    2018 was an astounding result for the ALP and it was always going to be a high water mark. Very few political leaders can maintain the popularity that Andrews had in 2018 (combined with the inverse view of Guy). A 2022 rehash is not going to be a vindication of Guy but a reversion to something of the mean.
    This is a very underrated point because its historically difficult for Victorian governments to maintain the sort of majority Andrews has and some of the seat margins are well off their historical averages but some people see these margins and might be mistaking them for demographic changes also some of the boundary changes have altered seat margins take Brighton being pushed into ALP voting Elwood.

    The ALP might lose 4 to 8 seats just on Victoria doing its normal election swing against an 8 year old government and that will still leave the ALP with one of its biggest election winning margins but Andrews has lost some support in the last year and he knows that because he has walked away from being tough on the unvaccinated but Guy is a weak alternative.

  31. As a former Labor party member, who has voted Labor in almost every election in my adult life and as a resident of Victoria I am sorry to say I will not under any circumstances be voting for any party that Daniel Andrews leads.

    Not after his deranged and failed pursuit of a Covid eradication / Covid Zero strategy made me unemployed or forced into unstable employment for the better part of two years, not after I was prevented from seeing my family who live interstate over Christmas, not after they almost bankrupted my employer and then continued to make my employer suffer with ridiculous occupancy restrictions for months and months on end even though there was no scientific evidence showing that occupancy restrictions had any effect on transmissions.

    Also, not after I saw business after business that were friends with the state government or one of their specific MP’s get massive grants and my employer didn’t get a single one despite me sending out dozens of applications. Not after we went back into lockdown for an additional three months when we already had vaccines and not after I saw the mental health of several of my friends deteriorate and continue to deteriorate as a result of the state government prioritising people not getting a specific virus over their general health and well-being.

    Not to mention the many instances of police brutality I witnessed, or the illegal curfew, or dozens of other dogshit fascist policies that were introduced by the bespectacled shit-head in chief.

    I might give Vic Labor a chance if they replaced Andrews and acknowledged their mistakes, but at this stage I’ll probably vote independent.

    I know one of the guys in the Victoria party through work and it’d be worth voting for him just so he doesn’t annoy me at work anymore haha.

  32. “Andrews has lost some support in the last year and he knows that because he has walked away from being tough on the unvaccinated but Guy is a weak alternative”

    What a ridiculous assertion, support from his base perhaps, but nobody on the fence or in the centre wants Andrews to be tougher on the unvaccinated.

  33. Blanket Criticism says:
    Tuesday, June 28, 2022 at 2:44 pm

    “Andrews has lost some support in the last year and he knows that because he has walked away from being tough on the unvaccinated but Guy is a weak alternative”

    What a ridiculous assertion, support from his base perhaps, but nobody on the fence or in the centre wants Andrews to be tougher on the unvaccinated.
    I didn’t say people wanted Andrews to be tougher but Andrews has softened on the unvaccinated.

  34. Speaking of Victorian *federal* politics, I think today’s Census numbers all but guarantee it’ll lose the seat it picked up at the last election. Speculation that Chisholm is for the chop – though Deakin looks similarly primed to me.

  35. Toby Esterhase says:
    Tuesday, June 28, 2022 at 2:52 pm

    Speaking of Victorian *federal* politics, I think today’s Census numbers all but guarantee it’ll lose the seat it picked up at the last election. Speculation that Chisholm is for the chop – though Deakin looks similarly primed to me.
    The AEC doesn’t abolish seats named after former PM’s

  36. @Mexicanbeemer,
    I can see them effectively abolishing Deakin but re-using the name for what was Chisholm.
    You could carve up Deakin between Chisholm, Menzies and Casey (the latter being assisted by extending Aston towards Belgrave).

  37. I spent eight months living alone in an apartment in the centre of a dead city, watching my employer plunge into debt until they were on the verge of bankruptcy, becoming depressed, watching friends develop mental illnesses or having their current ones be exacerbated and not speaking to another living soul for months on end. I was permitted to go out for an hour a day where I would often see members of Vicpol beating the shit out of people for having picnics in parks or tackling women to the ground on the street for not wearing masks. I’m so glad Daniel Andrews was willing to choose for me, my employer and my friends to make that sacrifice for everyone! And boy did it pay off! As we all know, we successfully eradicated the virus! The vaccines work just as well as everyone thought they would and you almost never hear about anyone getting Covid anymore! Praise Andrews! All hail our messiah!

    Yeah I’m still angry about it. I don’t think I’ll ever stop being angry about it.

    Life is going pretty well for me, I co-ordinated a fundraising campaign that saved my employer (no thanks to the Victorian government) and I am in a long term relationship with an American woman who got stranded here when the borders closed who I met during one of those brief windows of time when we were between lockdowns, but no single government in my entire life has affected my life more negatively than this one. I will definitely be protest voting at this election and encouraging everyone I know to do the same. Might even do some campaigning if I find an independent I like. Vic Labor can get fucked.

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