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The count failed to progress yesterday in many of the seats I rate as in doubt, but my system yesterday called Lingiari for Labor and Bradfield for the Liberals. It is clear Bennelong won’t be far off, with the second batch of postals reducing the Labor lead at the same insufficient rate as the first. That will leave Labor needing one further seat to get a majority, which might (or might not) be provided by Lyons, Brisbane and Gilmore, on which we are today none the wise.
The fresh two-candidate count in Cowper has dispelled any doubt that Nationals member Pat Conaghan will hold out against independent Caz Heise, whom he leads with 53.2% of the two-candidate vote. I’m projecting that come down to around 52-48 when the two-candidate count has caught up with the primary votes. The fresh count in Ryan records a slight lead for the LNP with about 12% completed, but this is because the booths counted so far lean conservative. My projection of a 2.6% winning margin for the Greens is based on the fact that preferences in the booths added so far are breaking nearly 70-30 in their favour. It is by the same logic that an 11.2% Greens margin over the LNP is projected in Griffith.
New batches of postal votes further shortened the odds on Liberal wins in Deakin, where Michael Sukkar has opened a 55-vote lead; Menzies, where the Liberal lead increased from 624 to 1748; and Sturt, where it increased from 723 to 982. My projection that Labor will ultimately win a squeaker in Deakin fails to properly account for the clear trend on postals, about 40% of which are still to come. That should add around 1000 votes to Sukkar’s margin, only about half of which Labor is likely to recover on absents. I should acknowledge though that I have no idea what the electronic assisted voting results have in store, which will include those in COVID-19 isolation, but my best guess is that they will be few in number.
Trent, ignore the haters and focus on the praise I say. All contributions, particularly those that actually try and analyse the data, are welcome.
Trent says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 5:22 pm
Looks like I’ll just shut the f**k up then if trying to contribute annoys people so much.
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I thought it was a very good comment and you convinced me. Don’t let Labor stooges put you off.
Can anyone tell me roughly how many seats are won on primary votes alone?
Abbott was a joke, that’s why he was removed as PM in record time, and subsequently lost his seat.
But many of us remember how much the media was a cheer squad for him back in the day, was very embarrassing time for many journos, and again this election they have embarrassed themselves again
Trent
“Looks like I’ll just shut the f**k up then if trying to contribute annoys people so much”
This is not a happy place. Especially if you post anything remotely favouring the Greens or casting doubt on the absolute superiority of the ALP.
They’ll run you out of town…
Call you names and refuse to acknowledge even simple facts.
But don’t let that dissuade you. 🙂
ltep, nath and Astrobeme: Thank you 🙂
Perhaps my attempts to just try to present an alternate approach to the modelling, while not even disagreeing that Labor that will win but just saying it may be closer than the modelling suggests, don’t fit in with the hyper-partisan, combative attitude of some of the posters here.
At the moment, 16 candidates have more than 50% of the primary vote. Therefore, About 1 in 10 has been won solely on primary votes which has to be a record low I would think.
michael at 5:20 pm
Globally there’s likely to be an inflation ‘rampage’ and a lot of chickens from the pandemic coming home to roost. The Rupert and Coalition S.O.P. for such global financial shit storms is to convince the Australian public it is ALL Labor’s fault.
B.S. Fairman @ #804 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 5:28 pm
Thanks BSF
I don’t want to alarm anyone, but sometimes the analysis of data can be adversarial in its critique.
“Trentsays:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 5:22 pm
Looks like I’ll just shut the f**k up then if trying to contribute annoys people so much.”
Wow, dude, what have I written that was so offensive to you? i just disagreed?
8 ALP, 7 LNP and Bandt is on 50.9%. There are two nationals who are currently a smidge off and will probably also cross the 50% threshold after postal votes.
People wonder about briefly and his language symbols and metaphors. Think of briefly as an aspiring author/poet looking to produce a Lord of the Rings classic or a dark and meaningful poem of heroic battles. All falls into place.
C’mon guys, it’s not every ALP sympathiser.
Some people get tetchy when we get to a pressure-filled pointy end. Doesn’t excuse anything but might be understandable since so many post with an air of authority they may/may not have.
For what it’s worth (err.. nothing), I thought you provided a quite reasonable critique of the assertion Revisionist.
Trent, ignore the nasty people, you are very welcome mate.
Keep posting
While dental into Medicare sounds great I wonder how feasible it really is and whether it would be better to fund public dental services better – especially for school children.
The Greens proposal for bringing dental into Medicare doesn’t include a lot of detail and doesn’t seem to have been thought through in any detail.
The policy initiative includes the following:
“Under our plan, people will still be able to choose their dentist. Routine and therapeutic dental services will be bulk-billed or rebated, including regular check-up and teeth clean, crowns, orthodontic treatment, oral surgeries, periodontics and prosthodontics. The plan would allow practices to choose whether to bulk bill or offer Medicare-rebated services, as with GPs.
The full list includes: ● Diagnostic services (items 011–091); ● Preventive, Prophylactic and Bleaching Services (items 111–171); ● Periodontics (items 213–251); ● Oral Surgery (items 311–399);
● Endodontics (items 411–458); ● Restorative Services (items 511–597); ● Prosthodontics (items 611–779); ● Orthodontics (items 811–881); ● General Services (items 911–972); ● Miscellaneous (items 981 – 999)”
These item numbers come from the Australian Dental Association schedule of dental services which describes each item but doesn’t actually allocate a fee. (Item numbers also apply to both primary and secondary teeth so some amendments may be needed when it comes to rebates.)
Some item numbers already exist in Medicare (and so have an allocated rebate) but most items have rebates determined by private health insurance funds and apparently vary considerably.
Currently dentists are free to set their own prices, so it is likely that any proposed rebate would just be added to existing fees unless there is some mechanism to prevent this.
A couple of aspects of the Greens policy initiative to bring Dental into Medicare are unclear, specifically:
• How will the actual rebates per item be determined?
• What mechanism, if any, will be used to prevent dentists from just increasing fees? Without such a mechanism it is unclear how the policy would reduce dental costs. It looks like it could be just a way to give dentists more money.
(The schedule can be found here – https://www.ada.org.au/Dental-Professionals/Publications/Schedule-and-Glossary/The-Australian-Schedule-of-Dental-Services-and-(1)/Australian_Schedule_and_Dental_Glossary_2015_FA2_W.aspx
The Greens policy is here – https://greens.org.au/sites/default/files/2022-04/Greens-2022-Policy-Platform–Health–Dental.pdf)
@Trent says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 5:27 pm
____________________
Keep going for sure, any decent well thought out analysis is more than welcome, any path to victory is worth examining no matter who is in front. The only number that matters in the end is the final make up and the journey to get there is the drama.
Is Kate Chaney in trouble in Curtin on preference breaks?
The path to majority for Labor in 2025 is going to be an interesting one.
Labor are going to lose seats in WA, SA and Victoria. No doubt about it. These states are very much at high tide and the libs will gain ground here. Unfortunately for our favourite Tangney dolphin trainer, it’s probably a one time gig.
NSW we will probably see a couple more teals, hopefully at the expense of the liberals. There’s potential trouble for the nationals here but I’ll believe it when I see it.
Maybe Tassie comes back for Labor, but given their changing demographics that’s doubtful too. I think Braddon is gone, but I got a gut feeling long term Tassie is gonna trend towards independents.
NT and ACT should stay solidly Labor. Hopefully someone in the NT can repliclate the Canberra independent senate victory and kick out another lib there.
With all that said, it feels likely that 2025 is going to come down to myself and the rest of the banana benders here in Queensland. The marginals here were sandbagged hard this time so they didn’t budge. I have my doubts anything north of Rockhampton is gonna budge this decade, so how Albo resonates with those in SE Qld is what it might come down to.
Another big thing that might make a Labor majority impossible is the rising greens vote. They’re gonna end up with 3-4 this time, and if the trend in national vote ends up anything like what happened between 2007 and 2010 next time they’ll get 4-8 seats.
Strap in, it’s gonna be a tough climb for Albo.
Harden up Trent.
No offense … but four days after the election – are we talking about the next one AND worrying?
JFC – take a break, and holiday … smile. Let’s (those of us who do) enjoy this for a little bit before setting phasers to panic.
Revisionist your post was not the main one I was talking about.
You make valid points, however I believe I did try to articulate a path for the Greens that addressed exactly what you wrote about, which is preferences breaking to the Liberals. I did two posts, one on Page 15 and one on Page 16. The one on Page 16 I just spoke about numbers, but that was just an add-on to my main post on Page 15 which was all about outlining the (very narrow) path to victory, by mainly focusing on preference flows particularly to the Liberals.
My point was that if the order is as follows after primaries: 1 Labor, 2 Greens, 3 Liberals; and there is only 1.5% between Labor & Liberal with Greens in the middle; that is the path for the Greens because the Liberals will get the lion’s share of preferences from all the right-wing minors.
Again, I didn’t say it was likely, just that it was not *impossible*. If it was impossible, the seat would have been called. It has not.
I have no problem with somebody disagreeing with me. It’s the manner and tone in which they do, and telling me to google a psychological disorder that leads to conspiracy theories is not the way to do it.
Trent; you need to scroll past and/or ignore the cranks and the trolls, once you work out who they are your life on PB becomes much easier I have found
And Trent, expert analysis I enjoy, so more of it please.
Colin Barnett, former WA Liberal Premier on local radio. On the up side he thinks Labor is likely to be in for two terms…He also thinks Dutton is the only person the Liberals have to lead them in the short term…He is no fan…He pointed out that the Liberals have lost a lot of ‘talent’ = “top half of the batting order” he calls it.
On the other side he thinks Federal terms should be four years as three years it too short and the election campaigns too long….He, with not chance of it happening, wants to do away with preferential voting done away with……..
His analysis was quite cool headed and balanced I thought.
+1
And let’s actually be welcoming to new poll bludger members, is it that hard to be polite?
Successful authorship stems from the ability to communicate without confusion.
“Liberals at lowest proportion of seats since party’s first poll in 1946”
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/liberals-at-lowest-proportion-of-seats-since-party-s-first-poll-in-1946-20220524-p5ao00.html
bUt WhAt AbOuT tHe LaBoR pRiMARy!?@!?!!?@
“What about Andrew Constance as LOTO?”
The first rule of therapy is the patient has to WANT to change.
They can put Constance or Bridget Archer up front and it does no good if they’re treated like Turnbull was as leader.
I thought the analysis was fine Trent. Like you said it’s bugger all chance, but you laid out how it would happen if all the stars aligned for the Greens.
Jen:
Briefly/Bludging’s posts always make me think of this famous quote from Ernest Hemingway:
“Poor Faulkner. Does he really think big emotions come from big words? He thinks I don’t know the ten-dollar words. I know them all right. But there are older and simpler and better words, and those are the ones I use.”
Steve Schmidt. That is all.
https://youtu.be/CShv702CblM
Well said Evan.
@Trent – there are some here whose life’s work, it seems, is to agitate Labor supporters here (some who do set themselves up for it BTW), this includes some who think they’re portraying a persona above the muck of partisan politics, when they’re often as unpleasant as the overt trolls and loons etc etc… long story short – you’ve a lot of very jumpy people here. So, be mindful, but don’t cower.
It’s good and interesting analysis you’re providing, even if hypothetical, as all of it is. Keep it up.
ratsak says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 5:43 pm
I thought the analysis was fine Trent. Like you said it’s bugger all chance, but you laid out how it would happen if all the stars aligned for the Greens.
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Tell you what if the shoe was on the other boot then there would be enough people trying to find the ALP path in the same circumstances
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/47839
What happened with the Chinese-Australian vote in the big cities?
By Ben Raue – May 24, 2022
One of the trends I’ve started hearing about over the last day or two, thanks to the very smart commenters on this blog, is that booth swings in a bunch of suburban seats in Sydney and Melbourne were particularly strong in the areas with a large population of Chinese-Australian voters. So I thought I would try and visualise this effect, or see if it was just anecdote.
https://www.patreon.com/posts/66817559
The wankers, united!
Andrew Stafford
For more than 25 years, dating back to John Howard’s pursuit of “battlers” in traditional Labor heartlands, conservatives in this country – both in parliament and the media – have waged a rhetorical war on the inhabitants of our inner cities. They called its denizens “elites” (regardless of their socioeconomic background, race, gender, financial status or social standing), out of touch, un-Australian and of course the latest absurd pejorative, “woke”.
Even the milky coffee some of them liked to drink was fair game, the diluting properties of milk a signifier of the weakness of those who, supposedly, had never got their hands dirty.
On Sunday morning, sipping my latte in the once blue-ribbon Liberal seat of Ryan in Brisbane’s inner west, adjacent to the University of Queensland, I reflected with no small amount of satisfaction that, at long last, the residents of those inner cities had finally told the Coalition – plus the ranters-in-residence on talkback radio, at Sky News, The Australian and the rest of them – to go f*ck themselves.
I see that everyone has leapt to the defence of our random apopheniac.
Yeah, nah, Trent, it is all good.
Keep them coming!
“Labor are going to lose seats in WA, SA and Victoria. No doubt about it.”
You could have said that about Vic or SA after 2019 too.
Victoria vs Dutton could actually complete the rout and take Deakin (if it doesn’t go this time), Casey and Aston too.
Anyway, the obvious answer to where the seats come from to maintain majority next time besides maintaining the rage in VIC and WA is to win seats in Qld. We all know this. There’s going to be like 5 or 6 seats within a 4.5% swing.
Am I considered one of the ‘cranks’?
C-Dog…There is no such thing as ‘No doubt about it’ in politics.
Your crystal ball gazing three years hence has about as much validity as looking at the entrails of chooks.
There was, not so long ago, ‘No doubt about it’ the LNP was going to win the election as everyone knew Scott Morrison had a second miracle up his sleeve and the could easily brush Albanese aside in any election campaign.
However, you might be right about a few seats in WA going to the Libs come the next State election as they are starting from a very low base………
At the Federal level I would not be so sure…Some of the margins are just too big to be bitten off in one election…..Maybe six years from now the Liberals will have got themselves sorted out but they have been losing votes over the last three elections and could drop even lower….
Without the Nationals on their side, the Liberals will be just a another minority party……..
Lilley has gone from being Labor’s most marginal seat to just about Labor’s safest QLD seat, testament to how hard Annika Wells works in that part of Brisbane.
That was my intention ratsak 🙂
Not to say the Greens would win because I thought I made that pretty clear, but how it would happen if they did, and all the factors that would need to align.
I do think some of those factors will happen to a certain extent, which will make the result a little closer than modelling suggests (though not enough to win) and result in Macnamara possibly being the last seat to be called.
Thanks also to Evan, Fumbles, Asha, Beaglie, etc. I’m certainly not looking for controversy, just wanted to share some thoughts and hopefully provide a slightly different angle!
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 5:47 pm
Am I considered one of the ‘cranks’?
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Oh……I can’t…….I can’t……breathe……
‘The Revenge of the Elites!’ By Adam B’andt and the Teals.
A Deathless Saga of Doughty Courage and Moet against the Tradie Blokes, Bogan Beeristas and the Rooineks.
C@tmomma I’ve always thought you were very pleasant from what I’ve observed 🙂
I’m not entirely new by the way, I was posting a lot around the last election and occasionally post comments here & there, although not often. I’m just not particularly regular.
Am I considered one of the ‘cranks’?
Badge of Honour
jt1983….
The talk about the 2025 election is topical because both Albanese and Tania Pleb…have mentioned they are thinking of 2025 already. Both got the message in the Rudd-Gillard years that Labor should plan carefully not just for the current term, but with an eye to the next one…..
Most Labor supporters wish them well in this as it is the pain of the Red side that the Red side tends to stuff it up for themselves and thereby hands the government back to the Blue side on a platter….
Trent @ #843 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 5:49 pm
I supported what you have done to and will defend to the death your right to do it! I just couldn’t be arsed to say so, and I had a podcast to listen to. 😀