First things first:
• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday looking at how-to-vote cards, preference deals and the media coverage attendant to them. It considers a claim by Greg Sheridan of The Australian that any teal independent victories will be owed to ovine fealty to how-to-vote cards on the part of Labor and Greens voters; Labor’s decision to put the United Australia Party ahead of the Greens in central Queensland seats, in sharp contrast to its treatment of the party everywhere else; and One Nation’s tokenistic direction of preferences against the Liberals in five seats, without endangering Pauline Hanson’s second placement on the Liberal National Party Senate ticket in Queensland. Had I held back a day, I might have been able to note the latest full-page United Australia Party advertisements proclaiming &8220;Labor are preferencing the Liberal Party”.
• Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports the Liberals are boosting resources in the Labor-held seat of McEwen in outer Melbourne. However, Labor sources say they expect to retain the Victorian seats that have become the source of media chatter over the past week, the others being Corangamite and Dunkley, as “national concerns over cost of living and antipathy towards Mr Morrison” are registering as strongly here as anywhere else.
• The Australian reports the Liberals are newly concerned that the normally safe Brisbane seat of Ryan will be lost to Labor. There has also been increasing talk that the Greens could prove competitive in both Ryan and neighbouring Brisbane, together with Labor-held Griffith immediately to the south.
• Alice Workman of The Australian reports “independent polling conducted over the phone, towards the end of April” shows Liberal candidate Jenny Ware on a low enough primary vote to put her in danger of losing Hughes to independent Georgia Steele. Liberal sources are quoted saying Ware is “on the nose with locals after being picked by Scott Morrison to run, against the wishes of rank-and-file branch members”. Assuredly not in contention is the seat’s incumbent, Craig Kelly, notwithstanding United Australia Party advertising proclaiming him the “next Prime Minister of Australia”.
• The Age/Herald today reports that this week’s Resolve Strategic poll showed 32% rated the Coalition as best to manage the Solomon Islands issue compared with 29% for Labor.
Now, by popular demand, a post probing into this site’s popular BludgerTrack poll aggregate, for which a permanent link can be found on the sidebar. This presently suggests Labor holds a lead of 54.0-46.0 on two-party preferred, which I don’t think anyone seriously expects to be actual result at the election. It does, however, show a narrowing trend commencing slightly before the onset of the campaign period, though not sufficient to suggest any chance of the Coalition closing the gap. Given the record low support for the major parties, the Coalition can at least hope that parity on two-party preferred need not be required to at least hold on to minority government – and also for another pollster failure like that in 2019 (the likelihood of which is considered in a post by Mark the Ballot).
BludgerTrack is one of a number of endeavours around the place that seek to plot a signal through the noise of federal opinion polling, together with one on the Wikipedia federal election page maintained by a user called Canley; Twitter user @Gergyl’s regular posts aggregating trends both short-range and long-range; and semi-regular blog posts from the aforementioned Mark the Ballot. That’s aside from the sites Armarium Interreta and Buckleys and None which, together with Professor Simon Jackman’s betting odds model, are tracking the horse race in other ways.
BludgerTrack and its close relatives, each of which produce very similar results, use LOESS (locally estimated scatterplot smoothing) functions to trace a path through the data points that keeps the distance between the path and the points at an appropriate level. The degree of tolerance for this difference is set by a smoothing parameter, which produces something resembling a straight line if set too high, and zooms all over the place in response to each individual poll result if set too low. The industry standard for determining the Goldilocks point is called the Akaike information criterion, which I use (thanks to a library available for the R statistics package) without really understanding its mathematical intricacies.
The data points themselves consist of every opinion poll of voting intention published since July 2019 by YouGov/Newspoll, Essential Research, Roy Morgan, Resolve Strategic and, just recently, Ipsos, which are weighted according to their perceived accuracy and adjusted to smooth out the peculiarities of each series. My methods here are quite a bit less presumptuous than they were before the pollster failure of 2019, when I imagined there was value in calibrating pollsters’ historic performances. I now assume that YouGov/Newspoll, the only pollster with any track record to speak of since 2019, is essentially free of bias, and calculate other pollsters’ biases based on the extent to which they deviate from a trend measure of it. These are halved so the peculiarities of each pollster have at least some weight in the overall result, rather than it being totally centred around Newspoll. The biggest change made is to Resolve Strategic’s Labor vote, which is increased by over two points. All other adjustments amount to less than one point.
Each pollster gets a weighting based partly on how much bias adjustment they’re being loaded up with, but mostly on my subjective impression of how accurate they’re likely to be, together with consideration of how frequently they report. The latter ensures the aggregate doesn’t get overwhelmed by the more prolific polling series. The most heavily weighted pollster at the moment is actually Ipsos, which is a (presumably) high-quality pollster that has so far produced only two polls released several weeks about. However, the mainstay of the series, Newspoll, is not far behind – a Resolve Strategic poll is worth about half a Newspoll, and an Essential Research (the most prolific series over the current term) and a Roy Morgan (which has a dubious track record) are worth about a quarter each.
Where BludgerTrack goes deeper than its rivals is in providing state breakdowns (together with leadership ratings). This is done using trend measures of each state’s deviation from the national results, which are then combined with the national trends (excepting Tasmania, for which next to no state-level data is published). Unfortunately, only Ipsos offers complete state data for each poll, as the others don’t care to have their small sub-samples held up to scrutiny their margins of error can’t bear. Essential Research comes close, but it smooths results for the smaller states by publishing three-poll rolling averages. Newspoll has always dealt with the issue by publishing state-level aggregates on a quarterly basis, which are a big deal for BludgerTrack when they come along (it would be nice to see one soon). Resolve Strategic only goes as deep as Queensland, and Roy Morgan’s are not used as they only provide two-party preferred at state level, whereas BludgerTrack works off primary votes.
I wouldn’t be so sure that Stalinists only exist in the Greens.
Earlwood for example has detailed extensive fantasies about leading a death squad in the snow drifts outside Moscow. The execution of the Royal Family was expounded upon in one post.
I think we should all chip in and buy him an original Commissar’s cap. It will be a nice change from the Admiral’s uniform.
Thanks, happyez. 🙂
‘malcolm says:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 9:52 am
Frydenberg has questions to answer about former Liberal party staffer Rachel Millar receiving $500,000 payout from the taxpayer?
Are any journalists going to ask Frydenberg why she got this payment?’
——————————————
I despise this sort of rumour mill trolling.
54-46 to Labor 2PP doesn’t seem to be an unreasonable potential outcome of the election. This election has the vibe of 2007 but in reverse, people are itching to vote the Scomo govt out. Labor isn’t particularly convincing but they don’t need to be.
Forecast of the UK locals tomorrow by The New Statesman (no. of councillors)
Labour:
England excl. London -16
London +35
Scotland +87
Wales +41
NET +147
Tories:
England excl. London -38
London -63
Scotland -83
Wales -22
NET -206
NET figures for other parties LDem +35, Green +35, SNP -12, Plaid -14
‘And, politically speaking, most of the seats up in England were last contested in 2018, one year before the collapse in Labour’s own base. In essence, the arithmetic has changed quite drastically. For England, what that means in practice is comparing directly with 2018 and nothing else – assuming that, because the Tory vote has fallen since 2018, these locales will produce further gains for Labour -is nonsensical. Today, while Labour’s vote is similar in size to 2018, the components that make up its base are drastically different. In 2018, Labour was winning scores of seats in Grimsby, but from 2019 onwards, the Lincolnshire borough has voted decisively for the Conservatives’
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/05/our-local-election-forecast-for-2022/
_________________________________________________________
I’m hoping the Labour performance in ‘England-outside-London’ will be somewhat better than that being honest
Griff says:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 9:56 am
Lars Von Trier @ Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 9:51 am
“Briefly – its medication time! Nurse Ratched is looking for you!”
I cry foul.
Cheers, Griff. Lars, like his co-posters, do/does not like it when hope rises. Sedation is their solution.
Mavis
What do we want?
A bill of positive and negative freedoms expressed as ‘rights’ reflecting the complex and sometimes conflicting relationship between individuals, groups, and the state enshrined in the Australian constitution.
When do we want it?
Ideally at the same time as a the Voice is enshrined in the constitution but probably sometime after that just as long as it’s in our lifetime please.
I don’t like sharing this stuff but:
6m ago from some journo on twitter:
“Anthony Albanese asked repeatedly to name the six points in Labor’s plan for the NDIS. He can’t, but repeats that the policy will put people with a disability at the centre. Journos ask again, and again @canberratimes”
This will be reported like the UE/cash rate stuff up. Mark my words.
”
Cronussays:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 8:39 am
Sprocket
“ Reading Nikki Savva about Morrison’s re-election strategy, I’m reminded of this..
“Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you
one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the
infinite variety of circumstances.” (Sun Tzu)”
Agreed, fighting the last war/election is the most common mistake committed by generals/politicians. Failure to adapt to the new circumstance.
”
Can you provide some examples of generals fighting last war?
Lack of cornflutes generally might have something to do with Ausgrid’s edict that they can’t be attached to telegraph poles anymore? Means shops, businesses and private homes are only place you can put them … and many unit blocks have a ‘no signage’ bylaw.
Also, I think parties are directing much more funding to socials as the new ‘marketplace’ where people get their ideas. Even TV & Radio ads are down.
mj says:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 10:00 am
54-46 to Labor 2PP doesn’t seem to be an unreasonable potential outcome of the election. This election has the vibe of 2007 but in reverse, people are itching to vote the Scomo govt out. Labor isn’t particularly convincing but they don’t need to be.
Labor have a very convincing record of being Not Lib. This is enough. The Not-a-Lib plurality is the very high 60s, possibly will touch the 70s by the time the votes are all counted. The Reactionaries deserve to lose and they will.
They look like bald book-ends.
Is Lars von Liberal becoming even more sleazy? I didn’t think it was possible. 😉
Rewi – It is not to gain upper house votes. It is to gain electoral funding.
There is a public funded amount for each vote a candidate receives in an electorate provide they reach the threshold of 4% of the primary vote required to get their deposit back. This can either be a fixed amount ($10,080 in 2019) or an amount per primary vote (in 2019, it was $2.756 per vote) if costings are provided to the AEC. This amounts will have increased with inflation indexing so it is likely to be about $10,600 or $2.95 per vote.
So if a candidate fails to get to 4%, the party loses $2000
If a candidate excess 4%, the party can get $10,600 in fixed funding or more if they show their costings.
By running 150 candidates, PHON is attempting to get as many candidates over the 4% margin to claim the fix cost amount in as many seats as possible. However, the majority of their candidates will probably actually not get to the 4% threshold, but as long as about one in 5 does they will be in the money.
Some journo 4m ago:
“VIDEO: One of Mr Albanese’s staffers has handed him a policy document with details on the NDIS policy. He proceeds to list off the six points.
The charge here is whether or not the Labor leader is fully across his brief.
@canberratimes”
”
Holdenhillbillysays:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 8:43 am
Australia’s next Minister for Home Affairs Barnaby Joyce has told the PM that the reason that they are doing so badly in the polls is due to the contentious (only to Barnaby) bonk ban.
”Bloody, Scott, err, ScoMo, needs to realise that sex sells,” said the Member for New England. ”Sure it doesn’t fly in those inner city latte sipping seats, but who cares about them.”
”The people in the bush wanna know that their member is on the job, in more ways than one.”
When asked why given the rising cost of living and interest rate rise that he felt that the bonk ban was the most important issue to deal with, the Deputy PM (for now) said: ”You people in the Canberra bubble need to get out more.”
”People care about who’s bonking who. They want their MP’s happy and sexed up.”
”They know that interest rates will go up and down, they’re more concerned that MP’s like me are able to go up and down.”
https://theunaustralian.net/2022/05/05/barnaby-tells-scomo-end-the-bonk-ban-win-the-election/
”
Seriously unreal isn’t it?
Woohoo. If you are bored sick with the election…. Older Bludgers will remember the Bob Dylan Nobel Prize Wars. It basicaly had yrs trly on one side vs Dylan hacks on the other. My contention was basically that Dylan was not a great poet. ‘Smoke rings of the mind’. That sort of stuff. Further, the award was a sick joke on the Nobel Prize for Literature when there are so many more worthy recipients.
https://www.theage.com.au/culture/music/bob-dylan-a-great-poet-a-great-delusion-more-like-it-20220502-p5ahrz.html
When was the last time the aphorism ‘oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them’ was wrong?
I love this guy and The Meidas Touch:
https://youtu.be/is-iylqDAvM
BS Fairman
You’re right, I’d forgotten about that.
Point is it’s neither new nor limited to minor parties. The only difference is the degree to which PHON has scaled up their operation from a low base.
So public funding is why the PHON is running in the ACT seats for example. They didn’t know who else was running and potentially getting the anti-vaxish, conspiracy theory type voters who exist in small numbers all over the place.
UK Cartoon Catchup – a few familiar themes over the other side of the globe:
I’m surprised they used blue:
@hazzah – meh, we’ll see. Guess what? In question time – they’re all loaded with briefs they read off … no one is across everything.
The CPG know this – but this is the game.
@PM- the one I’m shocked about is Eden-Monaro. It’s on a tiny margin but there is absolutely no attention at all on it.
But – given this is the third time in a week the PM is in Parramatta – clearly there’s a reason. Again – don’t watch what they say, watch what they do.
… and the day after the Hughes community forum, Craig takes a full page in the local paper to do labor’s dirty work….
Old Spoke
“abandoned Liberal principals”
good to see Craig writes his own ads.
edit: “scomo pushed his pick on local liberals”
good thing nothing like that has ever happened to Craig…right?
That would suggest Kristy McBain has consolidated her support in the seat. Well deserved.
Rewi:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 10:01 am
We need a Charter of Rights that has the status of a paramount Act, like the Constitution, which can’t be amended without a
referendum. Currently, we’re poorly served.
BW: “It is a one-sided siege”
The point is that it’s a seige. In a city 50km from its border. Two and a half months into an invasion. We’re not talking about Kyiv here.
Additionally PHON might submit costings like they did in 2019 when they earned $2.8 million in funding. The costings can include things like consultancy fees (so payments to businesses that are owned by friends and family) and campaign manager wages (friends and family).
The only party that failed to submit costings in 2019 was the Australia First Party which flopped over the 4% mark in Lalor by a 180 votes. A few independents also failed to provide costs including Alex Dyson who did himself out of about $12,000 extra.
@hazzah
The media might run with it, but Albo handled it much better then last time by not giving in and not giving them a easy to use 10 second soundbite to play. I’m sure the Australian/skynews will comment on it, but not nearly as much mileage as the first gaff.
”
Arkysays:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 8:54 am
@ Old Spoke: It’s amazing how many “other commitments” Liberal candidates keep having that prevent them attending community forums during an actual election campaign. Maybe she was visiting with Gladys Liu or Josh Frydenberg.
”
Or Dave Sharma or Jason Falinski or or or…….
jt1983 @ Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 10:14 am
“a week the PM is in Parramatta – clearly there’s a reason. Again – don’t watch what they say, watch what they do.”
Add the Daily Tele front pager today against Andrew Charlton. My myopia told me this is a seat to watch. I might even be right!
I’ll just add that, last week when Morrison was in Paramatta for Eid, alongside Kevin Rudd and Andrew Charlton, most of the people there wanted a selfie with Kevin and Andrew.
See, I’m one who thinks words are like musical notes. They are sounds first before they denote meaning/s. They are voiced before they are written. Words really do not need to be written at all to have their effect. So poems are assemblies of sounds, and they are songs, or, at least, they first are song-like.
There are several ways (at least) of forming and using words. Their tones are probably their single most important quality. To me, at least. They ask to go together too, like music. They are music. Therein lies poetry. In music.
Bearing this in mind – and even though my argument here is written and not sung – I have no doubt at all that Dylan was a poet. He sang meanings, very beautifully, originally and memorably. Likewise, I have no doubt at all that Johnny Cash was a great American poet. The best might have been Howlin Wolf. Tell me that Leonard Cohen was not a poet. Patsy Cline. Nina Simone. Etta James. Join Mitchell. All poets, just to start the long list.
Boerwar @ #100 Thursday, May 5th, 2022 – 9:24 am
It is the two-party system that is the “fake binary”.
Paramatta is easy to get to if you are in Sydney… well, it depends on traffic… but it is a shorter trip than going down to Eden-Monaro.
The question of the 500 K payment ( of taxpayer$) was brought up with Stuart Robert on the ABC this morning. He had an opinion on everything but said as education minister he was not qualified to say whether the payments details should be made public. Enuff said!!!
Well done @P1 for awkwardly jamming that one in.
‘Pi says:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 10:23 am
BW: “It is a one-sided siege”
The point is that it’s a seige. In a city 50km from its border. Two and a half months into an invasion. We’re not talking about Kyiv here.’
————————————
My point stands. Using Mariupol as the sole marker for how the Russians are faring does not make general sense.
You might be interested in the Second Battle of Fallujah. Fighting began on 9 November and continued until 23 December.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Battle_of_Fallujah
hazza4257 says:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 10:22 am
That would suggest Kristy McBain has consolidated her support in the seat. Well deserved.
Agreed, saw her here last Saturday with Mark Butler and quite impressed. Down-to-earth, personable and talks the talk. Wonder if EM is a ‘bellwether seat’ any more?
”
Henrysays:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 9:18 am
“This presently suggests Labor holds a lead of 54.0-46.0 on two-party preferred, which I don’t think anyone seriously expects to be actual result at the election.”
Interesting insights into BludgerTrack William, thanks.
Curious though why you/everyone doesn’t seriously believe this may end up being the actual election result.
Is there an implied/assumed narrowing that always occurs in the last week or so of an election that you are expecting/assuming?
”
Because those numbers reflect ALP dominance, which will lead to landslide victory of historic proportions, which never happened
Also, because the PVs of both major parties is in mid-thirties.
The people of Parramatta detest ScoMo and his fellow travellers in the NSW Liberal government.
Joni Mitchell….!
Apparently the journo attempting gotcha questions to Albo was losing the plot
Does anyone know who it was?
”
Markosays:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 9:23 am
@Bludging
How could they lose 18 to teals?
”
He is hoping and making Up shit. 🙂
This gotcha journalism is easily batted away by the captain of the team.
The voters, the fraction of who, actually follow the cut and thrust of campaigns, think the gotcha stuff is bullshit.
Probably Jonathon Lee from Sky – Albo should ban him from the bus for repeated infringements
Bludging @ #69 Thursday, May 5th, 2022 – 10:29 am
A little vinaigrette on the side?
I find undressed word salads a bit confusing.
Sounded like Jonno again was the gotcha journo.
Bludging:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 10:29 am
[‘I have no doubt at all that Dylan was a poet.’]
He certainly is, earning him the Nobel Prize in Literature.