Note the post below from Adrian Beaumont on today’s momentous French presidential run-off election. Closer to home:
• As the Liberal Party divides on Warringah candidate Katherine Deves and her contentious pronouncements on transgenderism, Chip Le Grand of the Age/Herald observes a related debate as to “whether a Coalition government could be turfed out of its inner-city electorates in Sydney and Melbourne but take enough ground in the suburbs and regions to stay in power”. Whereas some rate this as “electoral madness”, an unidentified conservative is quoted as saying Kooyong is “just a seat” and “certainly not the jewel in the crown anymore”. Those of the latter view point to Boris Johnson’s success in the “red wall” of northern England and the epochal populist-driven realignments in the United States and France.
• David Crowe of the Age/Herald reports front-benchers on both sides have identified the following seats as “still in play”: “Reid, Gilmore and Parramatta in NSW; Corangamite, McEwen and Chisholm in Victoria; Swan, Pearce and Hasluck in WA; Longman, Leichhardt and Brisbane in Queensland; and the Tasmanian trio of Bass, Braddon and Lyons”. This includes five seats held by Labor along with ten by the Coalition. A Labor source says they would “prefer to be us than them at this stage”, not least because the teal independent insurgency had the Coalition “fighting on two fronts”, but that defeat remained possible.
• Further to the above, former Queensland Labor state secretary Cameron Milner writes in The Australian that the Liberals are pursuing Labor-held Lilley in Brisbane, Lingiari in the Northern Territory (where Scott Morrison campaigned yesterday) and Corangamite in western Victoria. Milner also describes Scott Morrison’s support for Katherine Deves as “brilliant foghorn politics”, deployed to “virtue-signal their values” to One Nation and Clive Palmer voters whose preferences will be up for grabs. Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review likewise offers that “in the suburbs, the regions and the religious communities, the government – and Labor – believes the Deves issue is going gangbusters in Scott Morrison’s favour, messy as it may be”.
• A Labor online attack against Gladys Liu, who holds the Melbourne seat of Chisholm for the Liberals on a margin of 0.5%, has been described as a “desperate, dishonest, racist attack ad” by Josh Frydenberg and a “sewer tactic” by Scott Morrison. While these claims are receiving sympathetic coverage from the news media, the contentions raised in the ad do not seem especially misleading.
• Ben Raue of The Tally Room has interactive colour-coded maps recording the extent to which seats have swung towards one major party or the other since 2004. It can be observed that Labor has strengthened in the growth areas of Melbourne but weakened in central Queensland and Sydney’s inner west and south.
• Following the publication of full candidate details on Friday, I have finished fleshing out my federal election guide with further photos, candidate details and full lists of candidates in ballot paper order.
Sandman…I agree with your assessment re Morrison but at the end of the day his salesman’s pitch did the job in 2019…..
I was much aggrieved when old friend, ex-Sandgroper, moved to Queensland and came over for a trip to WA after the election was over….
He had been a Labor voter of some years standing, and I told him I was nonplussed when he said he voted Liberal…
His comment was he believed what Morrison said – at the time – that Australia could not afford Shorten.
Labor supporters just have to face up to the fact that many people who vote Liberal do not think too much about elections. If the message is simple and persistent and flogged by someone who seems to know what they are talking about, they will buy the snake oil…….
Someone on Twitter said Kenny reported in regards to Newspoll there is “not a lot of change”. Not sure if this is what Kenny said – can anyone confirm?
Labor would find it very difficult, if not near impossible, to form government with 34% of the primary vote.
One little Ipsos poll does not a salvation make.
New LNP slogan: “Prepare for war by 2044”.
32 % Tory Primary. Lower than a snakes’ belly.
imacca
The vicious fringe (and it is a fringe) of trans right activism is a real thing, but the irony of radical feminists (also a fringe) complaining about them is that they’re so vicious precisely because they’ve stolen the radical feminist rhetorical playbook, especially in weaponizing claims of discrimination within institutions and demanding “representation” which far outstrips actual demographics or even the explicit point of what they’re being represented in.
“Women-only spaces” is an interesting case study, because so many of these things are set up with no real relation to why women *specifically* need such spaces, and radical feminists at their most honest will admit to zero-sum tactics in the matter. This is most obviously true in public safety and domestic violence policy, and in academia, with an almost complete lack of attention paid to male/LGBT victims or the consistent declining share of male graduates respectively. Radical feminist hatred towards trans people is reflexive of the strain of unironic misandry that exists in the ideology, and currently allies them to the strain of homophobia that motivates social conservatives to also hate trans people.
A rational public debate is unlikely so long as the media and relevant institutions suffer from the cutthroat game of musical chairs that requires everyone involved to play identity politics for all its worth.
[Freya Stark says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 6:17 pm
Labor would find it very difficult, if not near impossible, to form government with 34% of the primary vote.]
Lnp would have no chance at 32%… and the alp could form government if 2pp was 52%+, of course if there is a minority govt then so be it.
Corangamite has been very marginal, was fought over very hard in Rudd/Gillard years, there has been a minor boundry change, but it’s a fraction of a percent.
I think the locals have worked out they get more pork this way, they got a dual lane highway upgrade previously.
I reckon you could dance the “Pride of Erin” on SfM’ bottom lip (not to mention the journos) when they hear about this poll.
Almost -20% in approval for Morrison from women in the Ipsos polling.
No other way to sugar-coat this one: The LNP is down 10% in primary from the 2019 election. That’s devestating.
That IPSOS – so Labor is back to 2019 primary levels AND the Liberals have lost 9 points in primary.
but there’s 8 points undecided.
Seems like a none of the above poll.
It will be a farce if either side is elected with a primary vote that is so low.
Removing the undecideds, Ipsos has Labor 55, Libs 45. It’s almost done, need Newspoll to confirm.
@ Freya – you up for a waltz?
Upnorth at 5.54pm re ‘Bananabenders’ being able to cop it…
Died-in-the-wool New South Welshperson here.
During State or Origin II last year, as the Blues sealed another series win in 2 games, Paul (Qld legend) Vautin, commentating on 9, said (almost under his breath, but I heard): “…they may as well not play game 3.”
I love how, when Qld DON’T win a series, the whole Origin concept becomes questionable.
I also loved how, more than a decade ago, the 9 coverage of Origin included players’ junior clubs in their introductory profiles. They’d get to Greg Inglis, and the club ‘Bowraville Tigers’. Bowraville Qld? Nope, Bowraville near Kempsey.
I get that Inglis wanted to play for Qld – but he wasn’t a Qld ‘origin’ player.
9 stopped publicising players’ junior clubs.
https://www.smh.com.au/culture/tv-and-radio/abc-presenter-takes-a-break-after-accusations-of-bias-20220425-p5afzj.html
In the Ipsos poll, the TPP is 55-45 with undecideds excluded and Albo’s lead as PPM is out to 2!
[True Believer says: Monday, April 25, 2022 at 6:22 pm
Removing the undecideds, Ipsos has Labor 55, Libs 45. It’s almost done, need Newspoll to confirm.]
If it hasn’t moved or is worse for the lnp how desperate will they get?
“A rational public debate is unlikely so long as the media and relevant institutions suffer from the cutthroat game of musical chairs that requires everyone involved to play identity politics for all its worth.”
Sadly, i have to agree with that. 🙁
Freya Stark @ #644 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 6:17 pm
The Coalition, on the other hand, on 32%, doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell.
Too bad, Freya, so sad.
If you take out the undecideds from the latest Ipsos poll the primary votes according to my maths are:
ALP: 37%
LNP: 35%
GRN: 13%
Ors: 15%
Newspoll and most other polling excludes undecided when calculating primary votes, so saying this Ipsos poll means X party is really low means nothing. You have to compare like for like. Someone (probably Kevin Bonham) wil work out what the primaries would be if undecideds were excluded.
Upnorth at 5.54pm re ‘Bananabenders’ being able to cop it…
Died-in-the-wool New South Welshperson here.
During State or Origin II last year, as the Blues sealed another series win in 2 games, Paul (Qld legend) Vautin, commentating on 9, said (almost under his breath, but I heard): “…they may as well not play game 3.”
=========£££€€**#%%%=====
State of Origin history.
NSW 14
QLD 21
The Cats’ of Australia have made their choice. Snappy Tom!!
Uhlmann and Abbott bombed out of the same seminary
https://www.crikey.com.au/2017/08/25/abc-political-editor-chris-uhlmann-has-to-go/
Lolololololololol
Media wants a contest soooooo desperately. Not sure they’re gonna get one
Pi @ #651 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 6:21 pm
We can tell when he’s pimping someone out. And all the photos he has lined up on a daily basis where he is surrounded by women isn’t convincing anyone either that that leopard has changed his spots.
IPSOS’s 55 – 45 “show[s] both sides battling for the numbers to form majority government” … really, Mr Coorey?
Upnorth at 6:22 pm
Only if you are up for……………..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TytGOeiW0aE
mj @ #660 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 6:25 pm
Wow! 50% PV for the good guys! (Yes, The Greens are better than the rest).
The difference for Labor in this election compared with that in 2019, is that Labor, deliberately, has gone in with small target stuff…
I admired and support Labor’s guts in 2019 in putting up some good policies (and not so good ones) only to have them totally warped by the conservative media – the same shit media which whinges that this election is “not about policies but personalities”
Labor have learned the lesson that policies – despite the shit from conservative media – do not, of themselves, win elections.
It is much more crude that this…being “who do I like/not like” for PM…….
Albanese does not have the albatross around his neck of yet-to-be-tested-and-accepted-polices whereas Morrison now has to convince us that he is worthy of another three shit years……Simple as this I would suggest….This does not mean that there will not be enough out there to prefer a snake oil salesman….Much to the pain of the rest of us…….
Uhlmann is a decent enough guy personally, but he’s an absolute nutjob, lol. He and Gai are an odd pair – but seem to complement each other.
Oliver Sutton @ #666 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 6:27 pm
Singing for his supper.
Woke, they’re looking pretty desperate atm – I actually think there will be a tipping point where the media has to ditch scomo and gives albo a fair go.
Corresponding IPsos in 2019 was 52-48 labor.
The latest The Australian Financial Review/Ipsos poll shows while Labor’s primary vote has slipped 1 percentage point and Mr Albanese’s disapproval rating has risen, Labor remains ahead of the Coalition and one-third of voters are either opting for a minor party or undecided.
At this stage, 42 per cent of voters believe Labor will win the election on May 21, while 34 per cent are backing the Coalition to secure a fourth term.
The poll also shows little regard for both leaders on key attributes, with Scott Morrison recording a record low rating for trustworthiness, and Mr Albanese having a record low rating for economic management.
The poll shows Labor’s primary vote at 34 per cent, which is 1 point lower than the last poll three weeks ago, while the Coalition’s primary vote has ticked up 1 point to 32 per cent.
The Greens are on 12 per cent, One Nation 4 per cent, the United Australia Party 3 per cent, “others” 8 per cent, and another 8 per cent are undecided.
Based on the 2019 preference distribution, Labor has a two-party preferred vote of 50 per cent, which is 1 point lower than the last poll, the Coalition is up 1 point on 42 per cent, and 8 per cent are undecided, based on preference flows at the last election.
If the undecided voters are removed, Labor’s primary vote is 37 per cent, the Coalition’s primary vote is 35 per cent, and Labor would have a comfortable election-winning, two-party lead of 55 per cent to 45 per cent.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/coalition-fails-to-make-ground-on-labor-20220425-p5aftw#Echobox=1650873948
Freya Stark says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 6:17 pm
Labor would find it very difficult, if not near impossible, to form government with 34% of the primary vote.
One little Ipsos poll does not a salvation make.
I don’t expect to see you posting on election day.
Gee AFR go a long way to paint 55-45 2PP as a bad result for Labor.
Biggest ever win for ALP federally is a smidge over 53-47 IIRC…
The biggest question i have remaining is weather the result will be called an ‘Albolanche’ or ‘Albalanche’
Snappy Tom
I was living in Sudan back in the mid-80s when a coup resulted in five elements fighting for power, the government, the Islamic fundamentalists, the communists, the military and a centrist group. What a shemozzle. The Lib situation in NSW reminds me of this scenario. What I do know from both scenarios is/was that no side was ever fighting for the best interests of the country, it was always purely about power and ideology.
Coorey must be on a high dose of Prozac to keep his spin shit up
Strong feeling Brisbane, Flynn and Leichardt fall to Labor with no LNP gains in Qld (contrary to the profound insights of Coorey’s light-beer-and-Doritos focus groups).
Similar disillusionment with Morrison’s economic incompetence, tax and spend lunacy & record debt, defence weakness etc will bleed LNP votes dry….not to mention the sheer nastiness of the Deves/trans rubbish
Throw in rampant inflation and a reluctant RBA which most likely will actually be forced to do its job on May 3 (but this is far from certain) – and you have a perfect storm
mj says:
“If you take out the undecideds from the latest Ipsos poll the primary votes according to my maths are:
ALP: 37%
LNP: 35%
GRN: 13%
Ors: 15%”
So, ALP + (80% of Greens) = 47.4%.
The LNP will need a yuuuge share of t’Others.
Upnorth at 6.26pm
As Roy Masters said, Origin is all about Qld.
I had the pleasure of sampling the newly-renovated Suncorp for Game 3 of the 2003 series. NSW had already secured (not in the Morrison sense) the series 2-0. I wore my sky blue jumper and enjoyed every minute of a game Qld won by a street – because it didn’t matter.
I freely acknowledge my fundamentally bitter and twisted nature…
@PRGuy17 Kenny report on sky news sneak peek on Newspoll – ‘not a lot of change’ …
Putting the 2PP thingo aside, as you noted Cat a combined 50% of the PV favouring Labor and Greens is a bit more significant than “battling for the numbers to win majority government”. The other weird thing was Ipsos reckons Albanese performance disapproval measure went backwards (-3) but his preferred PM measure improved (+2). Go figure.
Albo’s lead in PPM has gone up by 2% now.
55/45 2PP to the ALP
And media tells us both sides will struggle to form a majority
One candidate is returned for each electorate – on the 2PP vote, so after factoring in the preferences of eliminated candidates
Who are these “names” in media?
Griff
All good, most welcome. I saw your post too late and intended to respond but then during today forgot who posted, silly old bugger.
Holden,
Must mean 54-46 for Newspoll.
If so $1.80 will be fast disappearing.
New thread.
Freya, are you seriously suggesting that a party supported by 3.2 of of 10 voters should form a government?
Given that 800,000 or so of the vote for the LNP comes from Nationals for about 10 seats this means we have the tyranny of the minority…..
The Liberal Party, on its own is struggling to get 3 in 10 of the Oz voters to support them…..The LNP do not represent the majority of the Australian electorate and your writing off of Ipsos is hilarious….However, it never pays to be to certain one way or the other…..and thus I am cautious…
If I were a Liberal voter I would cringe every time Morrison swaggered on in whatever costume he thinks will do the trick, while as Deputy-PM of this fair land of ours, we have a man keen on the grog, not too consistent with his family values and thinks his political partner is a turkey…..
I am puzzled why anyone would vote for them, but then who can tell these days?
If the lib/nats combined primary vote is 34% on federal election day that is 7.5% swing against them
Comfortable Labor majority