Morgan: 55.5-44.5 to Labor

A softening in Labor’s lead from the most favourable poll series for the party, plus the latest on election timing.

Two other new posts to note before we proceed: a summary of the South Australian election result, and an Adrian Beaumont guest post covering Ukraine, France, Hungary and the United Kingdom.

In what’s otherwise likely to be a barren week for polling, with most of the players having held their fire ahead of the budget, Roy Morgan published a result on Tuesday showing a narrowing in Labor’s two-party lead to 55.5-44.5 from 58-42 a week previously. The primary votes were Coalition 33% (up two), Labor 35.5% (down two), Greens 12.5% (up half), One Nation 3.5% (up half) and United Australia Party 1% (steady).

The state two-party breakdowns had Labor leading 53-47 in New South Wales (in from 57.5-42.5, a swing of around 5%), 60-40 in Victoria (in from 64-36, a swing of around 7%), 57-43 in Western Australia (in from 59-41, a swing of around 12.5%), 63.5-36.5 in South Australia (out from 60.5-39.5, a swing of around 13%) and 53-47 from the small sample in Tasmania (a swing to the Liberals of 3%). The Coalition leads 51-49 in Queensland, in from 54.5-45.5 for a swing of around 7.5%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1404.

UPDATE: Now Morgan has an SMS poll of 1067 respondents conducted Wednesday and Thursday showing Josh Frydenberg leading Scott Morrison 46% to 28.5% as preferred Liberal leader, out from 38.5% to 31% in mid-February.

In further polling news, Ipsos has announced it will be conducting polling for the Financial Review during the federal election campaign using a mix of phone and online polling. Ipsos conducted polling for the full gamut of the Fairfax/Nine newspaper stable in the previous term, which includes the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, which now bring us monthly polling from Resolve Strategic. Unlike Resolve Strategic, it is a member of the Australian Polling Council and observes the body’s transparency standards. Ipsos was the one pollster that had an accurate read on the Labor primary vote before the last election, but this did not flow into superior performance on two-party preferred since it was balanced by exaggerated results for the Greens.

On the election timing front, the Financial Review has a headline that reads “Why the federal election will likely be May 21”, whereas has one that says “May 14 most likely date”. The reasoning behind the former is that the Coalition’s standing in the polls means Scott Morrison will take every week he can get; the latter invokes the opinion of Labor strategists along with the fact that the Electoral Commission has booked out halls for that date, though I personally wouldn’t read much into the latter.

Scott Morrison said on Wednesday he will not be visiting the Governor-General this weekend as he has “a lot to do”, which just about rules out May 7 unless he calls it on Monday. Laura Tingle suggested this wouldn’t happen on the ABC’s 7:30 last night, as the government wants to get “some advertising out in the ether” and the Liberal Party still lacks candidates in key seats due to its legal tangles in New South Wales. Tingle concluded that “most people think that it will now be May 14”, with the announcement to be made late next week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,852 comments on “Morgan: 55.5-44.5 to Labor”

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  1. Paul Bongiorno
    The utterly reprehensible treatment of mainly Muslim refugees and asylum seekers from the Middle East is the record of
    in dealing with these people. Nine years of incarceration without conviction pandering to an unspoken racism in the Australian community is sick

    8:34 PM · Apr 3, 2022·Twitter for iPad

  2. The News Limited stories used to be posted to AAP before publishing on the internet. Hence the results used to turn up there before the headlines were dropped.

  3. Boerwarsays:
    Sunday, April 3, 2022 at 9:05 pm
    Oh for the days when PvO went ‘Newspoll Wow!’ and the Ghost did the Newspoll drop!

    What happened to those days?

  4. Fulvio Sammutsays:
    Sunday, April 3, 2022 at 9:13 pm
    I believe that the newspoll results are provided to the major party leaders before they are published.

    That is the Morrison is in Canberra. And that is the reason why I think this Newspoll is good for Morrison.

  5. @Ven – you’re overthinking that one.

    Even if it’s less -awful for Morrison. It has more to do with the NSW case than Newspoll.

    Despite what people think- I think he wants to go now.

    @LvT – we just had Morgan…

  6. Not going early last November will be the biggest mistake SfM and his band of corrupt LNP lackeys will have made.

  7. In any case, I don’t know if the Prime Minister heading to Canberra on a Sunday night is really an unusual enough occurrance to warrant this speculation. Even Scott Morrison has to go into the office every once in a while.

  8. Will be noting to see here, 55-45 same as last time but with SfM taking a hit it PPM and personal ratings

  9. Lynchpinsays:
    Sunday, April 3, 2022 at 9:20 pm
    Sorry Ven I don’t follow. Why is Newspoll good for Morrison because he is in Canberra?

    To call on GG to set a date for election because of the”positive political environment ” based on favourable Newspoll.

  10. @Asha says:
    Sunday, April 3, 2022 at 9:23 pm

    In any case, I don’t know if the Prime Minister heading to Canberra on a Sunday night is really an unusual enough occurrance to warrant this speculation. Even Scott Morrison has to go into the office every once in a while.

    I guess he does have to return after his holidays to get Jen to do the laundry and prepare for the next announcement fest away

  11. GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 36 (+1) ALP 38 (-3) GRN 10 (+2) ON 3 (0) UAP 3 (0) #auspol

  12. GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Morrison 43 (+1) Albanese 42 (0) #auspol
    #Newspoll Albanese: Approve 43 (-1) Disapprove 44 (+2) #auspol

    #Newspoll Morrison: Approve 42 (+1) Disapprove 54 (-1) #auspol

  13. -3 ALP +2 Greens +1 Coalition after budget week. Come on now. It may come out to a plausible 2PP but the primary movements are not particularly.

    If Greens people think this genuinely reflects a 25% increase in the Greens primary vote on the back of almost no coverage of the Greens at all, I have such a bridge to sell you.

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