It’s an off week for Newspoll and Roy Morgan, but this week should see the release of federal polls from Essential Research and, I would assume, Resolve Strategic. With all the SA election post clogging up the board though, I need a new open thread sooner than that, so I’ll hang one off the latest release of JWS Research’s occasional True Issues survey of issue salience.
This finds very little change since the previous survey in November, with the war in Ukraine only eliciting a slight bump in defence, security and terrorism, which remains well down the list.
The biggest movers are cost of living, the index score of which is up from 11% to 16%, and housing and interest rates, up four to 14%.
Respondents continue to rate health as the issue governments should be most focused on, which would not surprise observers of the South Australian election campaign. The level of concern is unchanged on November with a score of 37%, but still well down from earlier in the pandemic. In second and third place are the environment and climate change on 27%, down one, and economy and finances on 24%, up two. The survey was conducted March 4 to 8 from a sample of 1000.
Given health is such a prominent issue in people’s minds might explain part of the reason for Albo’s surge in popularity.
SA Federal politicians reaction to the thumping in SA
Retiring federal MP Nicolle Flint has downplayed the federal implications of Steven Marshall’s loss, saying she’s not “particularly concerned” about the upcoming election in May because Scott Morrison
“ is as an outstanding campaigner. I believe that voters can distinguish between state issues and what’s going on federally. We have very different issues and I think we’re going to have a very strong campaign with the best campaigner I’ve ever seen.”
Reflecting on what happened tonight, Ms Flint put the result down to the strength of Labor’s campaign.
On the other hand Social Services Minister Anne Ruston argued that Mr Marshall’s loss was because he was “too nice” and did not spend enough time on the “politics” of the job.
But she conceded there are some “clear takeaways” for the Morrison government Ms Ruston said the government’s management of the Covid-19 pandemic and the economy was
“not the only thing that mattered to voters. I think one of the things that we can take out of tonight is clearly just keeping Australia safe, keeping borders safe, from having a strong economy that has the lowest unemployment rate. Those things are not the only thing that matters when it comes to going to the polls.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/sa-state-election-live-news-updates-results/live-coverage/6bd2c645a7fdc439bca35b10b6695714
So Nicole Flint thinks the Liberals lost in SA because of the Labor campaign but it wont be repeated Federally because the Messiah [SfM] is the best campaigner she has ever seen and Anne Ruston thinks they lost because the marshmallow was “too nice”. How dare he be nice, that’s not the Liberal way. Your supposed to be like this
Opinion polls had consistently put Labor ahead, with the weekend’s Newspoll published in The Australian showing Labor leading the Liberals 54-46 on a two-party preferred basis, translating to a swing of almost 6 points against the Marshall government since the 2018 election.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/very-tough-very-close-very-long-night-sa-s-labor-opposition-cautiously-optimistic-20220319-p5a64m.html
As Mr Bowe said
William Bowe
@PollBludger
·
7h
Good show by YouGov/Newspoll – a bit high on the Liberal primary vote in the pre-election Newspoll, just about nailed it in their poll a few days earlier for The Advertiser. Creditable performances now at three state elections post-2019. #savotes
https://twitter.com/PollBludger
—
This suggests Newspoll have improved their reliability somehow. Ask William how they did it. Gives reason to be more confident in them as an indicator of how voters might be thinking heading into the Federal election.
Sandman says:
Sunday, March 20, 2022 at 5:37 am
SA Federal politicians reaction to the thumping in SA
Retiring federal MP Nicolle Flint has downplayed the federal implications of Steven Marshall’s loss, saying she’s not “particularly concerned” about the upcoming election in May because Scott Morrison
“ is as an outstanding campaigner. I believe that voters can distinguish between state issues and what’s going on federally. We have very different issues and I think we’re going to have a very strong campaign with the best campaigner I’ve ever seen.”
—————————————————-
Morrison was in S.A campaigning and also the state liberal/nats are following the path of the federal lib/nats
There is hardly any difference between state and federal lib/nats
If Morrison was such a gun campaigner, why didn’t the SA Libs use him for their campaign? They sure weren’t averse to using another Liberal Prime Minister, John Howard.
On the other hand Social Services Minister Anne Ruston argued that Mr Marshall’s loss was because he was “too nice” and did not spend enough time on the “politics” of the job.
And that’s why they elected a nicer guy, Ann?
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, March 20, 2022 at 6:34 am
If Morrison was such a gun campaigner, why didn’t the SA Libs use him for their campaign?
—————————————————–
Morrison was there for a day or 2 campaigning for himself ,
on a serious note like everywhere else they know Morrison is incompetent and not good for any campaign
Given health is such a prominent issue in people’s minds might explain part of the reason for Albo’s surge in popularity.
Well, I’ve certainly been bitten by the Coalition’s health options twice recently. Once to have to pay for an MRI, which I used to get for free. Second, just recently when I had the option of waiting 18 months or more to get a growth cut off my collar bone, which may or may not have been cancerous, or have it done in the surgeon’s rooms but pay full freight for it. Thank goodness for generous sons and I had it done after only a couple of months wait. Just imagine if you can’t afford any of it!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/marshall-s-election-defeat-a-concern-for-morrison-andrews-and-perrottet-20220319-p5a66b.html
Mr Morrison has time, and a federal budget, to turn things around. There is only one Liberal seat, Boothby, in South Australia that is regarded as in play. It probably won’t fall and it almost certainly won’t decide the election.
Wishcasting from James Massola.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/19/south-australian-election-labor-on-track-to-form-government-after-large-swing-against-liberals
C@t:
Ann Rushton sounds very bitter.
There is no way Victorian Lib/nats opposition will be competitive when they are carbon copy of Nsw libs/Nats ,QLD LNP and federal Lib/nats
Confessions @ #13 Sunday, March 20th, 2022 – 7:04 am
She sounds like a ‘Mean Girl’. 😆
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. A lovely morning here in SA!!
James Massola tells us why Marshall’s election defeat represents a concern for Morrison, and other premiers.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/marshall-s-election-defeat-a-concern-for-morrison-andrews-and-perrottet-20220319-p5a66b.html
Peter Malinauskas’s historic run to the Premier’s office began with an echo of the stunning Kevin 07 campaign, and then it got worse for the Liberals, writes Matthew Abraham.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/matthew-abraham-the-salvo-had-strong-echoes-the-opening-shot-of-the-stunning-kevin-07-federal-election/news-story/f675c69dbc13d082001f8cafa307462b?amp
Mark Kenny begins this political evaluation with, “It is five minutes to midnight and some depressed Liberals are thinking the unthinkable. Naturally, most are pushing the thought away, judging it too convulsive to be viable. But it won’t completely die, because the circumstances keep calling it forth. What is this thought? Switching leaders, of course. More bluntly, dumping Scott Morrison.”
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7665037/are-the-liberals-thinking-the-unthinkable/?cs=14264
The ABC had a choice this week: amplify Murdoch’s toxic “Mean Girls” coverage, or publish the truth, that is that News Corp is a political organisation which is exploiting the death of Kimberley Kitching for political purposes. It made the wrong choice. The ABC needs new management. Michael West reports.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/abc-fails-to-expose-news-corps-political-agenda-amplifies-labors-mean-girls/
James Massola writes that Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison walked away from Treasury proposals for sweeping tax changes that could have put more money in voters’ pockets and eased booming house prices, according to leaked Treasury documents.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/leaked-documents-reveal-scope-of-tax-reform-turnbull-and-morrison-rejected-20220318-p5a5rl.html
Infectious diseases specialists are particularly concerned about babies and toddlers who have never been exposed to the influenza virus.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/it-s-really-dangerous-now-australia-s-influenza-hiatus-set-to-end-20220318-p5a5w7.html
The “mean girls” tag makes us squirm because nasty politics is an equal-opportunity affair, says Jacqui Maley.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mean-girls-tag-makes-us-squirm-because-nasty-politics-is-an-equal-opportunity-affair-20220318-p5a5w1.html
Federal Labor leader Anthony Albanese has doubled down on his refusal to call an inquiry into the alleged bullying of Kimberley Kitching, ahead of her funeral tomorrow.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-digs-in-on-refusing-kitching-inquiry-as-alp-sets-up-complaints-panel-20220319-p5a637.html
They say at every federal election there’s usually a surprise. Some wonder if this time it could be North Sydney. Says Michael Koziol.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-diabolical-event-that-has-thrown-this-safe-liberal-seat-into-doubt-20220316-p5a52v.html
Despite endorsing the IPCC’s findings, and rising emissions, Morrison still supports coal development. New climate-social system model identifies central importance of responsive political institutions for controlling global warming, says Peter Sainsbury.
https://johnmenadue.com/environment-emissions-rising-and-no-green-recovery-visible/
Jon Faine, in a fairly lacklustre contribution, looks at the roles federal and state leaders play in elections and the benefits, or otherwise, of appearing together.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/in-poll-lite-society-who-needs-friends-like-these-20220318-p5a5x0.html
With an election on the horizon, Anthony Albanese and Scott Morrison are almost head to head in the opinion polls. But Albanese has something up his expertly tailored sleeve – and that’s his social media team, writes Lucinda Price.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tiktok-tiktok-counting-down-on-morrison-s-poor-social-media-showing-20220318-p5a5vq.html
There are more than 4000 uninhabitable homes across NSW as people begin to wonder what to do amid the mammoth clean-up effort. Laura Chung writes about the uncertain future of Lismore.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/after-the-flood-lismore-s-future-in-doubt-with-4000-homes-uninhabitable-20220318-p5a5ra.html
A free trauma service for first responders to bushfires, floods and other disasters has been told its $4 million funding won’t be renewed.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-do-we-say-to-people-they-still-need-help-bushfire-first-responder-service-at-risk-20220318-p5a61h.html
Plastic-eating insects, plastic wrappers made from seaweed and cheap cameras in stormwater drains to stop rubbish escaping into nature are some of the ways that the national science agency says Australia can turn its waste problem into an economic earner, explains Mike Foley.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/csiro-on-mission-to-use-insects-rubbish-fuel-and-seaweed-to-end-plastic-waste-20220317-p5a5l1.html
Historian Simon Sebag Montefiore says Putin is threatening Russians with Stalinist purges while aspiring to an 18th century empire.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/he-s-not-crazy-at-all-stalin-s-biographer-says-putin-is-channelling-tsars-and-dictators-20220318-p5a61q.html
Cartoon Corner
Matt Golding – ouch!
Peter Broelman
Dionne Gain
Reg Lynch
Mark David
Mark Knight
From the US
Katharine Murhpy’s take on KK was probably linked yesterday and if so please disregard.
KM treats the issue with some nuance and context that manages to avoid taking sides or getting into the “mean girls” stuff:
‘The sum of these parts lead inexorably to this conclusion: Kitching was under significant professional stress at the time of her passing. Now stress tends to go with the territory in politics. People experience it themselves, and they inflict it on others. But Kitching’s personal triggers – feeling isolated in Canberra, and deprived of the comfort of a stable power base in Melbourne – overlapped and intersected.
On the flipside of this terribly sad human story are Kitching’s colleagues, another bunch of complicated humans, who reacted to what they regarded as disloyalty and internecine brinkmanship at the expense of the current leadership both in the Senate and the party – with an election in sight that none of these people want to lose.
My point here is simple. Conflicts are always plural. There is never just one perspective, and suffice to say, all of that is one a hell of a brew.’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2022/mar/19/kimberley-kitchings-death-and-its-aftermath-are-another-glimpse-into-the-routine-brutality-of-australian-politics?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
C@tmomma @ #14 Sunday, March 20th, 2022 – 6:27 am
Always strikes me as completely devoid of empathy and seems deeply unhappy.
‘Australians want constructive opposition leaders rather than opposition for its own sake during a global pandemic.’
which sort of makes a mockery of this statement
‘even the revived Victorian Liberal leader Matthew Guy – who is trailing well behind the Andrews government in the polls – {is} looking more competitive now too.’
I haven’t heard Matthew Guy – or any of his team – make a single constructive comment.
I see a lot of deflection by Liberals and no willingness to face the truths about Morrison and Co. Quite simply they have lost touch and they’re disconnected from everyday Australians.
This opinion of Putin is from the author of an excellent history of Stalin and his court of magnates, Simon Sebag Montefiore:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/he-s-not-crazy-at-all-stalin-s-biographer-says-putin-is-channelling-tsars-and-dictators-20220318-p5a61q.html
Thank you, BK.
I see that Bluey was on the boil last night.
The Year of the Octopus.
In the public domain the federal Libs will say there are no implications for them re SA election but I reckon privately they’re pooing themselves Engadine maccas style.
Thanks again BK. Awesome coverage.
Of the SA pundits it seems Matthew Abraham was the one who got his prediction closest to the actual result.
Oh no, the cost of a coffee is set to reach $7.00 by the end of the year because the cost of living is going nutso in the economy. Damn. What are we well to do folk who can still afford a take away coffee going to do ? Meanwhile, in Ukraine….
I would think that an obsession with Peter the Great in the 21st century Russia was a bit cray cray, but that’s just my humble opinion.
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, March 20, 2022 at 8:17 am
Of the SA pundits it seems Matthew Abraham was the one who got his prediction closest to the actual result.
YEP. All the others at the Tiser had no faith in the Newspolls and swallowed the Liberal insider information that it was going to be a hung Parliament. Wrong.
Another contribution to the latest RW mantra – if Morrison loses the election it will be due to circumstances, not his own arrogance and incompetence.
“ I would think that an obsession with Peter the Great in the 21st century Russia was a bit cray cray, but that’s just my humble opinion.”
Portraying Putin as a bit cray cray could be taken to be a partial absolution: if he’s not of a totally sound mind, is he totally responsible for his actions?
i think we should reject the easy rhetoric of Putin the madman. I think he’s totally of sound mind and totally responsible for the consequences of his actions, especially this awful war.
drawing upon the nostalgia – and MO – of Russia’s ‘big three’ rulers of the past 300 years, isn’t a bit cray cray, but typical and expected behaviour of a despot channeling populist nationalism.
IMO ‘the problem’ with Putin, aside from all the other problems, is that he is an old man in a hurry who has grievously miscalculated: a bit like all those old men in a hurry that fucked up the Whitlam Government from the inside, only much worse of course.
A small anecdote of one 95 year old father of a friend.
He was a senior public servant, and fell foul – very foul in his reckoning – during the Khemlani loans affair in Whitlam’s time. Due to his position at the time, he was required to give evidence to an enquiry. Which he says he did truthfully.
He often regales with his recollection of subsequently being called “a lying c%nt” by Gough in the Cabinet Room, and demanding and subsequently getting a written apology.
He has not voted Labor since 1972, and watches SkyNews every day.
This year he is changing his vote to Labor, because he says Scott Morrison is the worst PM he has seen in his lifetime. He is in Eden Monaro.
The ABC had a choice this week: amplify Murdoch’s toxic “Mean Girls” coverage, or publish the truth, that is that News Corp is a political organisation which is exploiting the death of Kimberley Kitching for political purposes. It made the wrong choice. The ABC needs new management. Michael West reports.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/abc-fails-to-expose-news-corps-political-agenda-amplifies-labors-mean-girls/
+1 . That won’t stop the moron producers feeding the trolls again on Insiders this morning with none other the leading OZ newspaper God Bothering troller on the program today. You know, Greg Sheridan who recently published a book “Christians, the urgent case for Jesus in our world”. Please !!
Sandman
Yes, as I’ve said before, I was disgusted by all of those people who regularly condemn ‘The Australian’ and Murdoch who seemed, however, very pleased to follow them down the rabbit hole on this one.
The definition of insanity is intentionally broad. Do you ascribe the terminology of ‘criminally insane’ to leaders of countries who are rational enough to work their way to the top of the political leadership tree of their country and then contrive to stay there due to the fact that they are willing to cause the death of citizens who challenge them? I know what my answer would be.
The federal election result on election night will be called quickly if the trend shows the lib/nats combined primary vote will not reach 40%
Incumbency is a curse if it shows up your laziness and incompetence. Slomo has that in abundance.
‘Brent Hodgson
@BrentHodgson
WTF…
A Chinese-speaking friend forwarded me this PR piece Frydenberg seems to have written for WeChat: https://mp-weixin-qq-com.translate.goog/s/3Egz13MzypBb8mhT8cUvIw?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Rough Translation: “Australians look forward to ‘The Prince of Tennis’ Josh Frydenberg as Prime Minister.”
I bet Simon Birmingham will be in full on, ‘no relevance to the federal election from SA’s result’ mode, today.
Zoomster-
That was referring to a poll done by a Morgan that showed Josh ahead of Scomo and Dutton as preferred PM a couple of weeks ag- You know when the leadership spill rumour popped up again.
Oh and get this … the site tells us the election is to decide who governs for the next “four years”
“In a blink of an eye, Australia will usher in a new general election this year.
All Australians. Here comes the holy vote in hand It’s time to decide the fate of Australia for the next four years”.
” In a special poll conducted by Australian research institute Roy Morgan in February, 38.5% of people preferred the current Treasurer Josh Frydenberg to lead the next Australian government as prime minister, ahead of current Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s 31%. %, also well ahead of current Defense Secretary Peter Dutton”.
ScoMo displaying his trademark lies in WA. He must think the voters are stupid – or have the memories of goldfish
Is this the main thread?
Thanks Bk for today’s news. And again congratulations to you and the rest of SA bludgers for a wonderful result!
Thank you once again BK for the Dawn Patrol.
Sometimes I find the cartoons intriguing but obscure. The one with the nice lady shopping (plus a giant pretzel and other giant grocery items) is one such. I did an image search and found this: https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/money/saving/is-costco-really-cheaper-than-woolies-let-s-find-out-20220318-p5a5wh.html
(Answer: yes, with caveats).
The question is will scomo bribe voters with a cash splash?
The pressure on the health system has been an issue in every state. In particular, Vic and NSW considering the size of the outbreaks of covid.
SA did not have to deal with the same level of covid outbreaks. So why was the hospital system under so much pressure?
SA result on primaries – according to Antony
ALP 39.5%
Lib 35.5%
Who or what is Australia’s “Defense Secretary”? That plus the 4 year terms suggests that the writer has confused Australian politics with those of the USA, so their scribblings can probably be ignored.
Speers in very modus interruptus early.
Boerwar
I see that Bluey was on the boil last night.
————
Oh dear, that will only result in a tough octopus!
Greg Sheridan in truth telling mode – Morrison has done nothing
Mark Kenny says ScottyFromAnnounceables is about to go into overdrive
Vic:
Good to see you again. I was wondering yesterday if you were still around as it’s been a while since I’ve seen you commenting.