The big news at the moment is of course yesterday’s New South Wales state by-elections, where you can continue to follow the count here. On the polling front, there may be a Resolve Strategic result this week and presumably a Roy Morgan – Newspoll isn’t due, unless The Australian has decided to quicken the schedule with an election in view. That leaves the following preselection news:
• Alison Byrnes, staffer to Sharon Bird, will succeed Bird as Labor’s member for the safe Illawarra seat of Cunningham after the withdrawal of Misha Zelinsky, Australian Workers Union assistant national secretary and former criminal defence lawyer. Rob Harris of the Age/Herald reports it had “become clear in recent days he would not have enough support among branch members”, his prospects having been harmed by the emergence of past online activities in which he made comments denigrating women.
• Some new Labor candidates for unlikely-but-not-impossible seats: Amanda Hunt, chief executive of Uniting WA, will run against Andrew Hastie in the Perth fringe seat of Canning; Naomi Oakley, former police officer and owner of a private security firm, will run in the eastern Melbourne seat of Menzies, where Keith Wolahan will succeed Kevin Andrews as Liberal candidate; and Sonja Baram, a family therapist, will run against James Stevens in the eastern Adelaide seat of Sturt.
• Recently announced independents of note: Kate Chaney, Anglicare WA director of innovation and strategy and member of a family of local Liberal Party and business notables, will run against Celia Hammond in the blue-ribbon Perth seat of Curtin; and Craig Garland, a local fishing identity who made a minor splash in the seat at the by-election in 2018, will again run in the north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon.
• It was reported this week that ASIO had rumbled an effort by Chinese spies to financially support “sympathetic and vulnerable” candidates for Labor preselection in New South Wales. Anthony Galloway of the Age/Herald reports the agency is satisfied no candidates of concern were endorsed, but that it remains concerned about the ongoing activities of “a wealthy businessman with deep ties in both Australia and China, who was known to ASIO as ‘the puppeteer’”.
“ How naive do you think people are to think that there is no back room plotting to improve positions”
That would have to be one of the biggest argument shifts I’ve ever seen on bludger: you have gone from “labor right” to a more more generalised “back room plotting to improve positions”.
As to this new, revised argument from Rexology, I simply say “No shit, Sherlock”.
There are lots of back room plotting in politics, especially in the Victorian Labor Party. It’s just that these plots do not monolithically line up along factional lines; and ideology (ie. ‘socialism’ vs ‘Labor right’) has had nothing to do with the fragmentation and subsequent power sharing deals that have been done over the past decade.
[‘Vladimir Putin’s superyacht has been pictured in all its glory, featuring the stunning finely furnished interiors, a spiral staircase and a swimming pool after being spotted ‘fleeing’ from a shipyard in Germany earlier this week, sparking speculation that it was trying to avoid being impounded by tough sanctions that would be imposed if Moscow invaded Ukraine.
The £73.2 million pleasure craft, named Graceful, was originally built by Sevmash in Russia – with interiors and exteriors envisioned by H2 Yacht Design – was moved to Germany for modifications.’]
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10505803/On-board-Putins-73million-superyacht-spotted-sailing-German-shipyard.html
Not bad for a man whose annual salary is reputed to be a mere $180,795.00 (I presume it’s USD).
Firefox @ #122 Sunday, February 13th, 2022 – 8:40 am
And then there’s the Greens’ mantra;
There is always next time.
This is not what you would expect from a Party supposedly focused on the climate emergency.
Doncaster is going to get a SRL station.
I suspect that the ALP is at its high water mark in polling, with people feeling better about life after the xmas debacles translating to mitigated backlash against ScoMo
That said, across WA-SA-Vic and Tas, i cant see how the ALP dont gain at least 5 seats
That alone, plus a couple of teal wins, makes it likely they will be the largest seatholders in the new parliament
Where they can really drive up a decent majority is in Qld & NSW. Just going by the state by-elections, the Bega/Willoughby swings are what one would expect for a government this much on the nose.
I’m sure ScoMo feels that he can hang on in NSW. Cant see how they can gain seats, but could minimise losses to ALP (though Teals a different story potentially)… Qld looks less likely in terms of the coalition holding steady, but any narrowing and that’s at risk too. I wonder if this is Dutton’s offering – but for every Qld seat he can save, i suspect he costs another elsewhere.
This is going to be one humdinger of an election. ALP would win today, but at $3.25 as much as it pains me i think ScoMo isnt a bad value bet
Nostra, you say that Aston is a good place to instil family values in your children. What family values can be instilled in Aston that can’t be instilled elsewhere?
By the way, the dictionary definition of instill is akin to brain washing. Is that the type of people who live in Aston.
Genuine questions, I live in the cave so don’t get exposed to this sort of stuff.
Rexxy really is a fossil fool cartoon. He lives his life one idiotic cliche at a time.
Re: NSW results. Recall the Greens foamers who very recently were so happy to proclaim that they’ll get 12-13 senators in the next parliament.
Cool story champs. We all know the results are far from certified, but on Sunday morning, the PV for the Greens is:
* Bega: 8.0 (-1.7)
* Monaro: 7.5 (-0.4)
* Strathfield: 6.1 (-2.7)
* Willoughby: 12.0 (+0.8)
So where will these magical (and sizeable) new senate votes be coming from?
U.S. COVID update: All indicators continue to drop
– New cases: 69,004 ………………….. – New deaths: 870
– States reporting: 21/50
– In hospital: 85,659 (-3,709)
– In ICU: 16,543 (-726)
942,944 total deaths now
subgeometer
“The Russians have got NATO to demonstrate the won’t come to the Ukrainians aid militarily. A mirror of a key demand, that they never be allowed to join.”
These are two completely different things. The Russians want NATO to declare that Ukraine will never become a member of NATO. The US and NATO have point-blank refused. I doubt US/NATO wants Ukraine to join, because it would be buying trouble; like Georgia, Ukraine has too much territorial baggage. But US/NATO has refused to accede to this key demand from Russia.
If Russia invades Ukraine, Putin will be seen as the aggressor – there is no casus belli to justify an invasion. Russia will be mired in an expensive and dirty war. Putin may get what he wants (eastern Ukraine absorbed into Russia; a satellite government in Kyiv, just like in Minsk/Belarus), but at the cost of showing Putin’s true colours. It would be a huge propaganda victory for the West.
Mexicanbeemer says:
Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 1:08 pm
Is that the rail loop or some other project?
It is the rail loop.
Stage 1 is scheduled to start later this year. Cheltenham to Box Hill. Doncaster is in SRL north, or stage 2.
https://bigbuild.vic.gov.au/projects/suburban-rail-loop/srl-north
somethinglikethat
Thanks.
Mexicanbeemer @ #157 Sunday, February 13th, 2022 – 1:08 pm
The suburban rail loop. Long way into the future and a Victorian LNP govt would probably scrap the whole idea.
Mexicanbeemer
“Hasn’t Reid formerly Lowe always been a marginal?”
Yep. Further, like Banks, demographic changes have made Reid less friendly to the ALP. Very different demographic changes have helped the ALP in Gilmore. Swings and roundabouts.
Granny Anny says:
Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 1:09 pm
Nostra, you say that Aston is a good place to instil family values in your children. What family values can be instilled in Aston that can’t be instilled elsewhere?
—
It’s all rubbish. “Family values” whatever they are, can be taught anywhere. Kids in city high rise apartments can and are taught to be decent, caring human beings. Personally, I couldn’t think of any place worse in Melbourne to live than in Aston. Probably Casey. Uggh. But then again, I live in the polar opposite to those lobotomy suburbs: glorious Footscray. It’s everything Aston isn’t.
laughtong says:
Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 1:20 pm
The suburban rail loop. Long way into the future and a Victorian LNP govt would probably scrap the whole idea.
—
* Stage 1 starts this year.
* The whole thing will be nearly finished before the Libs get back into govt in Vic.
the usa, france, and the uk have already declared (last year) they will not station their troops in ukraine to deter russia. scott ritter (*) explains why.
The toolbox is empty. Russia knows this. Biden knows this. Blinken knows this. CNN knows this. The only ones who aren’t aware of this are the American people, says Scott Ritter.
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/01/22/ukraine-crisis-us-toolboxes-are-empty/
(*) Scott Ritter is a former U.S. Marine Corps intelligence officer who served in the former Soviet Union implementing arms control treaties, in the Persian Gulf during Operation Desert Storm, and in Iraq overseeing the disarmament of WMD.
A desperate Morrison clutches at straws while Perrottet blames Gladys and Morrison:
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 10:22 am
“ The NSW byelections are somewhat different to the federal elections as the former was conducted under OPV. If full preference flows were in place, the results could have been even worse for the Liberals.”
This is the key to understanding Strathfield. With compulsory preferential voting its likely that the result would have been well over a 10% swing to labor on 2019. however 2019 was conducted on OPV, so on an ‘apples with apples’ comparison probably a typical by-election 6% swing would have been in order. Having a look at the overall progressive vote yesterday, and factoring in compulsory preferences at federal elections, I reckon labor has a real shot in Reid.
However: the implications for NSW Labor in 2023 are bad: even if a state wide swing is ‘on’, the same exhaust rates we saw in the 2015 and 2019 elections (let alone the 2011 wipeout election) will see labor fall well short of majority government.
Minns has to find a way to get the public to hate the Libs so much that the public make sure they fill in all the boxes on the ballot paper to truly make their vote count: that’s how Anastasia beat Newman in the 2015 Queensland election & without that same effect in 2023 the best that NSW Labor can hope for is minority government: perhaps with Labor winning 42-44 seats, with 2-3 Greens (yuk), and a couple of progressive independents (ie. independents that represent otherwise progressive seats like Sydney and Lake Macquarie).
___________________________________________________________
I’m so glad that optional preferential voting has not caught on around Australia. It was adopted by the NSW state Labor government under Neville Wran in the 1980s; one of Labor’s biggest own goals.
I think Labor thought it would cause angst between Libs and Nats candidates in three-cornered contests. Labor may also have been influenced by recent memories of when the old rightwing Labor splinter party, the DLP, would preference Coalition candidates. That was in the days when Labor would often lead on the primary vote, only to see it overcome with DLP preferences pushing the Coalition to the front.
But by the 1980s times were already changing. The DLP was a spent force and the centre-left vote was dividing between Labor and minor parties such as the Democrats, the Greens and now Animal Justice. Preferential voting is now more likely to favour Labor. The NSW Coalition parties simply avoided the intended wedge by not standing against each other.
It’s why the NSW Liberals helpfully mount corflutes outside state polling booths advising people that a simple vote ‘1’ only is valid. You may as well have first-past-the-post voting.
All in all, a most apt instance of the karma bus hitting Labor. Well done again, you Sussex Street clowns.
Re Mick Quinlivan at 11.30 am and Barney at 12.54 pm
Yes, trailing candidates are disadvantaged by optional preferential voting in almost all cases. Overall, OPV must burden a large party (Labor) that competes with a smaller party (Greens) that would in a full preferential system provide that large party with a lot of preferences, in contrast to another large party (Liberals) that has (except in WA) a formal coalition with another smaller party (Nationals).
OPV is a handicap that NSW Labor has historically imposed on itself, as a self-perpetuating own goal. Paluszczuk saw the point and quickly got rid of it, but it would require a referendum in NSW to do so. Justifications for OPV are merely abysmal (see comment on NSW by-elections live thread at 11.39 am).
Anyone doubting that OPV helps the Tories should study the 2019 preference flow chart for Bega at:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2022/guide/bega
Or Monaro at: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2022/guide/mona
When Labor gets three times the preferences of the Tories (in Bega in 2019) or twice (in Monaro in 2019) it is unlikely that exhausted votes would favour the Tories if voters had to choose, as federally.
Casey has some nice parts around the yarra valley and bush around the northern end of the dandenong ranges.
Expat Followersays:
Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 1:07 pm
I suspect that the ALP is at its high water mark in polling, with people feeling better about life after the xmas debacles translating to mitigated backlash against ScoMo
That said, across WA-SA-Vic and Tas, i cant see how the ALP dont gain at least 5 seats
That alone, plus a couple of teal wins, makes it likely they will be the largest seatholders in the new parliament
Where they can really drive up a decent majority is in Qld & NSW. Just going by the state by-elections, the Bega/Willoughby swings are what one would expect for a government this much on the nose.
I’m sure ScoMo feels that he can hang on in NSW. Cant see how they can gain seats, but could minimise losses to ALP (though Teals a different story potentially)… Qld looks less likely in terms of the coalition holding steady, but any narrowing and that’s at risk too. I wonder if this is Dutton’s offering – but for every Qld seat he can save, i suspect he costs another elsewhere.
This is going to be one humdinger of an election. ALP would win today, but at $3.25 as much as it pains me i think ScoMo isnt a bad value bet
________________________________________________________
Good analysis I hope you keep contributing as the big day arrives.
Mavis @ #151 Sunday, February 13th, 2022 – 1:01 pm
Putin better hope the Arctic melts because he won’t be allowed to sail the Mediterranean any time soon if his crazed ambition to get ‘Back in the USSR’ drives him to invade Ukraine.
alfred venison says:
Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 1:27 pm
Thanks…
The toolbox is empty. Russia knows this. Biden knows this. Blinken knows this. CNN knows this. The only ones who aren’t aware of this are the American people.
The consequences of a U.S. rejection of Russia’s demands will more than likely be war.
If you think the American people are ready to bear the burden of a war with Russia, think again.
So Ritter thinks Putin will get what he wants….. NATO backdown? Has anyone told Dutton & Scottie, not they have any relevance.
I don’t think the by-elections are indicators for corresponding Federal seats. Too many variables – including a high awareness of the distinction between State and Federal Governments and local issues.
I agree with others here that the next Australian elections will be very difficult to predict, especially with the rise of the Teals. But compulsory preferencing will make a difference.
“This is going to be one humdinger of an election. ALP would win today, but at $3.25 as much as it pains me i think ScoMo isnt a bad value bet”
$3.25 is only good value if you win. Losing your stake doesn’t count as good value. And I very much doubt the bookies will be paying out early on the LNP. Labor, perhaps, so they can get a second bite of that tasty “refunded” stake money. But not Morrison.
Bet on something else.
C@tmomma:
Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 1:39 pm
[‘Putin better hope the Arctic melts because he won’t be allowed to sail the Mediterranean any time soon if his crazed ambition to get ‘Back in the USSR’ drives him to invade Ukraine.’]
Yes. He may have to limit his sailing to the Black & Baltic Seas.
somethinglikethat: as lacklustre as the Green results last night were, the Greens don’t need any extra votes to get 12 Senators. If this year’s Senate election is a carbon copy of 2019 they will have 12. That said if the Labor vote rebounds a few points in Queensland then they miss out on one there.
Liberal candidate for Strathfield Bridget Sakr isn’t doing herself any favours wallowing in the tragic death of her daughter.
If she had got into Parliament she could never move on
Re COVID. Not sure if this study that was published in Nature Medicine last week has been mentioned: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01689-3
Provides evidence (retrospective and mostly white male) for the long-term cardiovascular event rates following infection with COVID (post-acute infection up to 12 months).
To put the risk into relative terms, the increased risk of a cardiovascular event post-COVID is greater than being obese but not quite as bad as smoking.
$3.25 is seriously terrible money on the LNP (implying a 31% chance of the LNP winning), Hold you horses and getting in when it is over $4 (implying 25% of them winning). That relatively small decline in the chances of winning equals major gains when betting on elections.
I personally wouldn’t be taking anything less that $5 (about 20% chances).
Expat’s analysis is sound, bar one obvious error in logic.
The Australian people, the Liberal Party, the MSM and even Rupert Murdoch are sick of Scott Morrison as PM. Sick of incompetence, sick of the lies, sick of the stunts, sick of the backgrounding and backstabbing of colleagues, sick of the photo ops.
And what response does he offer?
“Hold my beer!” And double down on more of the same.
Just need to get the fossil fuel cartel puppets out of parliament.
Do your due diligence on your candidates and vote strategically to unshackle Australia from the fossil fuel cartel.
Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, February 13, 2022 at 11:53 am
This is leadership.
_____________________
After Dani Laidley, the 1st thing Andrews should be doing is getting Victoria Police on board
By all reports Lukashenko’s regime is on its last legs, so he’s probably looking to retire rather than be imprisoned or worse, and the presence of the troop concentration gives him the opportunity, and Russia.
Troops were also recently required to save another failing post-Soviet regime and client in Kazakhstan, so I think a ‘defensive’ maneouevre, to ‘save Belarus’ from Ukraine’s fate is more likely the real bottom line here. That and preventing Ukraine joining NATO, which sitting on the doorstep achieves more effectively than actually invading, by accentuating the (ethnic, economic and geographical)divisions in the country without providing a unifying point to rally around
Sceptic : ritter (and gilbert doctorow & michael hudson) reckon russia has a two (2) year tactical & strategic advantage over nato/usa. russia is playing a long game. and yes, duttface & scomo are irrelevant, disposable bit players. -a.v.
The Iron Curtain of the 1940s and ‘50s was ostensibly designed to isolate the Soviet Union from Western Europe – to keep out Communist ideology and military penetration. Today’s sanctions regime is aimed inward, to prevent America’s NATO and other Western allies from opening up more trade and investment with Russia and China. The aim is not so much to isolate Russia and China as to hold these allies firmly within America’s own economic orbit. Allies are to forego the benefits of importing Russian gas and Chinese products, buying much higher-priced U.S. LNG and other exports, capped by more U.S. arms.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/02/michael-hudson-americas-real-adversaries-are-its-european-and-other-allies.html
(*) Michael Hudson, a research professor of Economics at University of Missouri, Kansas City, and a research associate at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College. His latest book is “and forgive them their debts”: Lending, Foreclosure and Redemption from Bronze Age Finance to the Jubilee Year
“That said if the Labor vote rebounds a few points in Queensland then they miss out on one there.”
***
What happens if both the Greens and Labor vote is up in QLD, as it currently is according to Bludgertrack? Both are well up in QLD from where they were in 2019. LNP 2, Labor 2, Greens, and either Hanson, Stoker, or Palmer? That’s what I see as the most likely outcome at the moment. So hard to predict though, too many horses in the race and so long to go until they get to the finish line.
Taylormade @ #187 Sunday, February 13th, 2022 – 2:09 pm
What happened to Laidley was a disgrace.
subgeometer
“That and preventing Ukraine joining NATO, which sitting on the doorstep achieves more effectively than actually invading, by accentuating the (ethnic, economic and geographical)divisions in the country without providing a unifying point to rally around”
For that reason, NATO needs Ukraine like a hole in the head. But because NATO membership is voluntary, and Ukraine is theoretically eligible, the US is not going to slam the door on Ukraine because Russia says so.
NATO expansion is likely at or close to its peak. They’d be happy with Finland and Sweden, and probably take on ex-Yugoslav states that aren’t already members. But Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova etc come with pre-existing territorial disputes that NATO would not want to be entangled in.
applications to join nato can be vetoed by any one member.
for the record, france, germany, hungary, italy, and coatia (biden & blinken notwithstanding) are not on the same page as usa & uk vis a vis russia/ukraine. -a.v.
Folks, I have seen the light.
Putin is going to quietly sail his billion dollar yacht down the Dnieper River to Kiev where he will triumphantly welcome his invading soldiers who have waded through waist deep snow all the way from the eastern front. The seized Kiev International Airport will then be used as a forward base for his Tupolev long range bombers that will then fly across to one of those artificial islands constructed by those dastardly Chinese in the South China Sea. After topping up with Avgas they then fly to the electorate of Dickson to drop a bomb on our strategic genius Mr Peter Dutton. Without him calling out those evil lefties we have no chance of survival.
Be afraid, vote conservative.
The senate voting system is now pretty much same outcomes as OPV for smaller RW parties.
Qld lining up to be fun for RW groups as they won’t see much exchange of preferences except probably to Hanson because of name recognition
High chance of 2 lnp, 2 lab, 1 green. Probably hanson for last spot.
Mavis @ #178 Sunday, February 13th, 2022 – 1:54 pm
Where his gigantic superyacht won’t really be able to impress any of the other super rich. Which has always been the point of the silly things.
Anyway, there will come a time when the pendulum will start swinging against the 69yo Putin because, as the Roman Empire showed us, you can keep acquiring more parts into your empire but it thus becomes increasingly difficult to maintain control over them and the dissident groups who chafe at the bit against your control and then organise against you with your empire eventually falling to the momentum going the other way.
[‘The village of Aceredo was flooded in 1992 when a Portuguese hydroelectric plant closed its floodgates.
Aceredo, along with other surrounding villages, had to be abandoned by its residents as the waters rose.
The ruins of buildings that made up the small village have amazingly reappeared due to low water levels.
It has become an unlikely tourist attraction as holidaymakers have flocked to the area to see the eerie ruins.]
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10505711/Holidaymakers-flood-ghost-village-emerges-drought-hit-Spanish-lake.html
Some years ago now, before the wall of the Hinze Dam
was raised, the water in the dam reached a very low level, revealing the old Advancetown pub, hardly comparable to Aceredo but it created a lot of interest at the time.
I used to walk the Dam wall road daily until age intervened. By the way, the Dam is not named after the allegedly corrupt Russ Hinze, who was adversely named by Fitzgerald,* but after his grandparents, Carl and Johanna Hinze, who were pioneers in the area.
https://www.mustdogoldcoast.com/eat-drink-cafes-day-trips-hinterland/hinze-dam-advancetown
*’In December 1989, Hinze was charged on eight counts of having received corrupt payments totalling $520,000. However, before the case could go to trial, he died from bowel cancer on 29 June 1991, at the Allamanda Private Hospital in Southport, aged 72.’ – wiki
Silly Nifty Nev. A bit of a slow learner when it comes to WA does taking its border seriously.
.
.Police seek prison term for former COVID-19 recovery boss after WA border breach]
Neville Power, the former head of the National COVID-19 Coordination Commission, and his son should serve immediate terms of imprisonment for breaching WA’s strict border laws, a police prosecutor says.
But the two men will have to sweat over what their sentence will be, with the case adjourned until February 24 after they pleaded guilty to two charges each of breaching state of emergency laws.
https://www.watoday.com.au/national/former-national-covid-commission-boss-to-plead-guilty-over-wa-border-breach-20220211-p59vpk.html
Firefox: If Labor and Greens both gain then yes it’s quite possible to see 2-2-1-1 or 3-2-1-0 (3 LNP 0 PHON) in Queensland.
The 2019 margins (total votes not swing) were One Nation over LNP 2%, LNP over Greens 1.2%, Greens over Labor 2.7%. So a net gain of 5.1 points (a swing of just over 2.5%) landing in the right place puts the LNP into last and causes them to lose, unless One Nation drops 2% to the LNP in which case they lose.
I don’t see Palmer as a factor at this stage; he wasn’t in 2019. Newman is a bit more interesting but might not poll much either.
Treat any projections based off Queensland polling with extra caution, federal polling in that state has a long history of being nonsense.
“The suburban rail loop. Long way into the future and a Victorian LNP govt would probably scrap the whole idea.
—
* Stage 1 starts this year.
* The whole thing will be nearly finished before the Libs get back into govt in Vic.”
The ALP will probably in all likelihood manage to win another term in state government, especially with a re-elected federal Coalition government. But they are unlikely to last longer than 2026. The project will be beset by delays and scrapped by the next Victorian conservative government who will also quickly commence building the EAST-WEST LINK. I can’t wait being able to drive from Balwyn to Ballarat without interruption, most of all I can’t wait PWNING THE LATTE-SIPPERS OF COLLINGWOOD, FITZROY AND CARLTON!
Dan Andrew’s deals with the issue at hand. As usual he’s on the front foot and being totally transparent. No wonder he has so much support within the community.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-13/daniel-andrews-responds-to-bullying-claims/100826494
for the record : putin can sail his yacht in international waters as much as he wants. its called “freedom of the seas”, which america & australia vigorously defend in the south china sea, remember? -a.v.
Nostradamus, i’ve taken bowel movements that make more sense than your last post.