First up, two privately conducted uComms seat polls to relate courtesy of the Australia Institute (you may care to note here the disclosure statement at the bottom of my sidebar, which is particularly relevant to the seats in question), both providing bad news for the Liberals and good news for the independent rebellion they face:
• In North Sydney, the poll shows Liberal member Trent Zimmerman trailing independent Kylea Tink 59-41 and Labor 58-42, suggesting he would lose to whichever of the two finished ahead at the second last count. When results for the two primary vote questions are combined as appropriate, the second being a forced-response follow-up for the initially undecided, Zimmerman is on 35.5%, Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw is on 23.1%, Tink is on 21.3%, and the Greens are on 11.3%.
• In Wentworth, Liberal member Dave Sharma likewise trails independent Allegra Spender by 56-44 and a to-be-determined Labor candidate by 55-45. In this case the primary votes are 37.6% for Sharma, 28.5% for Spender, 19.2% for Labor and 8.0% for the Greens.
The two automated phone polls were conducted on January 24, with samples of 850 in North Sydney and 853 in Wentworth. More detail, including responses on various questions relating to the ABC, is available through the Australia Institute link above. I would add the caution that seat polls do not have a particularly stellar record, perhaps especially so for the kind of inner metropolitan seat under consideration here.
On top of that and everything else, there is all too much news to relate about the New South Wales Liberal Party’s extraordinarily fraught federal preselection process. Its state executive met on Friday to consider a factional peace deal that would have concluded long-delayed preselections for a number of important seats, the catch being that party membership ballots would be bypassed in a number of cases. However, signing off on this required the support of fully 24 out of the executive’s 27 members, and reports indicate it didn’t come close. This raises the spectre of intervention by the federal branch, which in turn would be assured of triggering legal action.
• The stickiest sticking point would seem to be the southern Sydney seat of Hughes, which the Liberals need to wrest back from Craig Kelly after his move to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. The factional deal would have handed the preselection to PwC Australia management consultant Alex Dore, much to the displeasure of local branch members given he lives in Manly, was earlier weighing up a run in Warringah, and hadn’t even bothered to nominate. Michael Koziol of the Sydney Morning Herald also reports that Scott Morrison is less than enthusiastic about Dore, as he favoured the claim of state Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons. This was vehemently opposed by Dominic Perrottet and others who did not care for the prospect of a by-election in marginal Holsworthy, since the state government is already in minority and fears losing the Bega by-election on February 12. However, Koziol’s report suggests the by-election might happen anyway should Gibbons register her displeasure by resigning from parliament. Anne Davies of The Guardian reported last week that some in the party were of the view that Alex Dore for Hughes was so clearly a deal-breaker that it was no more than a ploy to bring on a federal intervention.
• The deal would have spared Sussan Ley a challenge from Christian Ellis, a public relations specialist who has made a name locally campaigning for water rights, in her regional seat of Farrer. Liberal branches in the electorate have reportedly been targeted by a conservative recruitment drive, putting Ley in grave peril despite her status as the Morrison government’s Environment Minister.
• Another incumbent who would have been spared a challenge is Alex Hawke in Mitchell, which is telling since Hawke’s machinations as the leading powerbroker of the centre right faction, and thus a key element of Scott Morrison’s power base, have been widely blamed for the endlessly protracted preselection process. Hawke would reportedly struggle to hold off Michael Abrahams, an army colonel with strong backing among conservatives.
• Another factional powerbroker, moderate Trent Zimmerman, would be rubber-stamped in North Sydney, where he faces challenges from Hamish Stitt and Jessica Collins, respectively aligned with the hard right and the centre right. However, Anne Davies of The Guardian suggests their prospects in a membership ballot would be less strong than those of Ley’s and Hawke’s challengers.
• The deal would have installed the preferred candidate of Scott Morrison, Pentecostal preacher Jemima Gleason, on the Central Coast seat of Dobell, where the Liberals have been hopeful of reeling in Labor’s 1.5% margin. However, Anne Davies of The Guardian reports that Gleason has now withdrawn, and that “another potential candidate – a well-known cricketer – has also cooled on the idea”. Presumably this refers to Nathan Bracken, as per reports last year. This just leaves conservative-aligned Michael Feneley, a cardiologist at St Vincent’s Hospital who has twice run unsuccessfully in the Sydney seat of Kingsford Smith.
• Reports last week indicated the deal would also secure top position on the Coalition Senate ticket for Marise Payne, but it appears Friday’s state executive meeting decided otherwise, since Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review reported on Monday that a process had commenced that would have both winnable Senate positions determined by the usual process involving party branch delegates. Patrick reports the moderate-aligned Payne is “probably safe”, which is just as well given her status as Foreign Minister. With the second position reserved to the Nationals, that leaves number three as a battle between Connie Fierravanti-Wells and Jim Molan. Three incumbents are chasing two seats as a legacy of Nationals Senator Fiona Nash’s Section 44 disqualification in 2017, which left the Liberals with all three of the six-year terms the Coalition won at the 2016 double dissolution. Fierravanti-Wells was elevated from a three-year to a six-year term and Molan, who had initially been unsuccessful at the election, took over her three-year term. Molan was reduced to the unwinnable fourth position in 2019, but was back later in the year when he filled Arthur Sinodinos’s vacancy in a six-year term. Liberal sources cited by Anne Davies of The Guardian suggest Molan’s popularity with the party membership makes him the likely winner.
• Then there were the three seats that were uncontentiously to proceed to a party ballot under the factional deal. Even here there is bad news for the Liberals, with the announcement by moderate-aligned barrister Jane Buncle, the presumed front-runner to take on Zali Steggall in Warringah, that she was withdrawing her nomination. That just leaves conservative-aligned Lincoln Parker, who according to Jim O’Rourke of the Daily Telegraph has “worked in defence research and technology development” and at consulates in the United States. He has also contributed columns to the Epoch Times, the newspaper of China’s suppressed Falun Gong movement, the enthusiasm of which for Donald Trump extended to passing off his tales about voter fraud as fact. As James Campbell noted in the Daily Telegraph, the heat had gone out of the Warringah preselection contest due to a growing sense that victory was beyond the party’s grasp. The other two seats designated for party ballots under the deal are Bennelong and Labor-held Parramatta, on which I have nothing new to relate.
michaelsays:
Friday, February 4, 2022 at 12:33 am
All countries heading for inflation because of covid and shit policies by Tories, Trump and Moron.
Let’s not forget the stupid europeons.
I don’t buy milk or bread. (About $10 for a four-pack of bread mix.)
Citipointe Christian College principal lobbied senators for ‘right to discriminate’ against gay people
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/04/citipointe-christian-college-principal-lobbied-senators-for-right-to-discriminate-against-gay-people
‘Nervous’ wandering chicken caught at US Pentagon security checkpoint
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/feb/03/chicken-caught-us-pentagon-security-checkpoint-defense
https://www.smh.com.au/education/christian-and-western-heritage-elevated-in-revised-national-curriculum-20220203-p59to1.html
This is the real reason Liberals today are in government. It’s all about the culture wars.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-04/liberals-election-scott-morrison-factional-infighting/100803848
Does anyone think with this record that federal intervention in the state party would be successful?
Does anyone think with this record that federal intervention in the state party would be successful?
—————
It seems to be a diabolical problem Confessions, and I’m just glad that Morrison and the NSW Liberals have it.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/western-australia/more-students-forced-into-quarantine-after-covid-19-hits-another-high-school-20220203-p59toh.html
A private school in the Perth Hills is on high alert after a parent who visited the school’s senior and junior campuses for an interview and tour returned a positive COVID test.
Two students in the family then joined classes in Years 5 and 7 for one day on Wednesday.
They are now isolating, being tested and further contact tracing is underway.
——————–
It has started.
The reason behind the absence of Liberal candidates in those key Liberal seats. Seems like Morrison’s stellar judgement has backed another loser in Alex Hawke.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-may-survive-the-leaked-texts-but-will-he-survive-the-open-warfare-20220203-p59tfg.html
max:
True.
It seems like Tony Abbott, once he got the change in the pre-selection rules, has been busy getting conservative candidates into Liberal seats. Viktor Orban probably gave him a few tips on Abbott’s many trips to Hungary. 😐
‘References to Christian heritage have been restored to the Civics and Citizenship course ..’
Oh goody. That means we get to teach about the adverse affects of Christianity on indigenous peoples, why Australia was set up as a secular country, how Christianity was used to justify racism etc etc in a very explicit way, rather than doing so incidentally.
Thanks, government. I wouldn’t usually go into much depth on these topics, given the secular nature of the current curriculum, but now I HAVE to.
(Do these people think anything through??)
A perennial trend in technology companies over the decades – the ‘untouchable leader’ shits in its own nest and then…
Shares of Facebook parent Meta plunged as much as 27 per cent in an epic rout that, in its sheer scale, is unlike anything Wall Street or Silicon Valley has ever seen.
The catalyst was startling news that for the first time ever, Facebook’s user growth seems to have hit a ceiling and its momentum is stalling. Thursday’s collapse wiped out more than $US230 billion ($322 billion) of market value in an instant — a figure unprecedented in stock-market history — and has investors asking a question that once seemed unthinkable: Are the best days over for Facebook, one of the world’s most widely held technology stocks?
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/meta-on-track-for-wall-street-s-biggest-one-day-share-drop-in-history-20220204-p59tpj.html
President Biden showing President Putin what he is capable of in one of Putin’s vassal states:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/us-special-ops-forces-launch-raid-in-north-west-syria-20220203-p59tnl.html
Your move, Vlad. 😐
zoomster @ #1034 Friday, February 4th, 2022 – 7:16 am
Lol. Doctrinaire pronouncements are a two-edged sword. 🙂
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/02/02/situation-normal/comment-page-22/#comment-3812156
We need freedom from, not freedumb of, religion.
I guess the ones that are antivax will soon be united with those that went in earlier pandemics.
But hey, if they choose to live like that on the wrong side of the dark ages, science after beliefs, Renaissance, Enlightenment at least do it somewhere without impacting infirm or aged. [May be think of a society measured by how it looks after the needy, not how well gazillionairs are doing.]
… and they range all they way through Jesuits and Opus Dei.
Besides what these days is called the CDF, is the former Inquisition.
Where I grew up the religious schools always had the best parties, kinda like carnival, all that repression seeking a way out.
Organised religion should pay tax like a business, and if they haven’t settled over abuse cases [the biggest a…holes, priest/ nun prepped], confiscate the lot, all them building[s] could be used for the homeless [even redevelopped], make sure charities are split off.
After all that I reserve special contempt for the black stockings types that’d seek to deny pain killers etc to those in end of life care.
The …
Melissa Sweet
@MelissaSweetDr
·
20m
Coalition has slashed $526m from ABC – and most Australians want funding restored #pijmatters
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/feb/04/coalition-has-slashed-526m-from-abc-and-most-australians-want-funding-restored?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Poor Phil Coorey sounding a bit glum today…
Now, as the pandemic enters its third year and people yearn for light at the end of an ever-lengthening tunnel, it’s all downside. All of them, state and federal, have long fallen from the lofty heights during the pandemic because the novelty has long worn off.
Dominic Perrottet will be the canary in the coal mine on February 12 when there are four NSW state byelections. On March 19, South Australia’s Steven Marshall, who took the gutsy decision to open his border three months before an election, could be the first leader tossed out during COVID-19.
Two months later will be the federal election, just as the country prepares to enter winter, and cases, with all the associated disruption, are expected to spike again.
Labor, which could well inherit the situation in a matter of months, is piling on relentlessly and, in this column’s view, risks raising expectations too high as to how easy it will all be, should there be a change of government. An aged care workforce will just appear; the sector, which has never functioned well, will function well; the states will work harmoniously together; and everyone will be vaccinated.
The PM is increasingly fighting a lone battle as he seeks clear air to steer the nation’s attention back to the economy.
COVID-19 won’t go away, Parliament is back next week for a fortnight with all the pitfalls that presents, and, for good measure, Brittany Higgins and Grace Tame are at the Press Club on Wednesday.
Even his own party is fighting him.
Three years after he carried the Liberal Party on his back and delivered a “miracle” victory, his NSW division has turned on him in an ugly dispute over preselections and is ignoring his will to spare ministers from ballots and install candidates of his choice in must-win seats.
Morrison, who never airs dirty laundry in public, took the extraordinary step on Wednesday to upbraid his party on radio. All amid the spectre of someone in the show leaking text messages to damage him.
Sometimes in politics, when things start going wrong, everything goes wrong.
Morrison may be justified in complaining about the media, but it’s hard to ignore the circus when the big top is in town.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-pandemic-is-draining-the-power-of-incumbency-20220202-p59t60
‘Poor’ Phil Coorey will no longer be able to sit in the PMO on a comfy chair and take dictation.
zoomster says:
Friday, February 4, 2022 at 7:16 am
‘References to Christian heritage have been restored to the Civics and Citizenship course ..’
Oh goody. That means we get to teach about the adverse affects of Christianity on indigenous peoples, why Australia was set up as a secular country, how Christianity was used to justify racism etc etc in a very explicit way, rather than doing so incidentally.
Thanks, government. I wouldn’t usually go into much depth on these topics, given the secular nature of the current curriculum, but now I HAVE to.
(Do these people think anything through??)
———
“Oh goody”……
That attitude is a bit alarming. Shouldn’t a teacher present material in a balanced way rather than as a vehicle for his/her prejudice?
Also, to be in any way accurate the presentation of the history of any culture must acknowledge the role of “religion”, even when the curriculum has a “secular nature” whatever that means.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
The Liberals have a preselection mess in NSW — and it tells us something about Scott Morrison, writes Michelle Grattan.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-04/liberals-election-scott-morrison-factional-infighting/100803848
“Morrison may survive the leaked texts, but will he survive the open warfare?”, asks David Crowe in this pretty good read.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-may-survive-the-leaked-texts-but-will-he-survive-the-open-warfare-20220203-p59tfg.html
And Crowe tells us that Liberal Party members are seeking to force a meeting that could end an impasse over the selection of candidates for the federal election after months of frustration with Scott Morrison over delays that could destroy their chances in crucial campaigns.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberals-try-to-force-alex-hawke-to-clear-way-to-choose-election-candidates-20220203-p59tlp.html
The Age’s editorial says that merely being ‘ordinary’ won’t get Morrison over the line.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/merely-being-ordinary-won-t-get-morrison-over-the-line-20220202-p59t5r.html
The AFR’s editorial says that the 2022 federal election should be a genuine, policy-focused contest of ideas, not simply the referendum on the Prime Minister that some in the media want it to be. Hang on, isn’t Morrison himself trying to make it a presidential-style election, keeping his minsters out of the fray? Just like he did the last time.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pm-s-press-club-grilling-was-a-sorry-business-20220202-p59tcj
Katina Curtis reports that more than $68 million in unexplained money flooded into political parties in the past financial year, making up almost 40 per cent of all donations, with integrity advocates warning the secrecy around who donates to Australia’s political powerbrokers must end.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/hidden-money-political-parties-rake-in-68-million-from-mystery-sources-20220203-p59tg4.html
Michaela Whitbourn reports from yesterday’s court hearing in which a lot gloss was wiped off Ben Roberts-Smith. This is not pretty stuff.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/i-know-what-i-saw-sas-soldier-doubles-down-on-roberts-smith-claims-20220203-p59tgc.html
Politicians are hiding behind numbers as Covid deaths rise. Human stories must not be diminished, writes Lenore Taylor as she reflects on our experiences over the pandemic.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/04/politicians-are-hiding-behind-numbers-as-covid-deaths-rise-human-stories-must-not-be-diminished
The majority of Australia’s small to medium-sized businesses appear to be in rude health, if Westpac’s experience of their credit quality can be extrapolated more broadly, explains Elizabeth Knight.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/westpac-s-loan-book-spells-good-news-for-the-economy-20220203-p59tla.html
Morrison is an “arsehole”, just ask his colleagues, writes Kaye Lee.
https://theaimn.com/morrison-is-an-arsehole-just-ask-his-colleagues/
There’s not a physical similarity between Yes, Minister’s Jim Hacker and Richard Colbeck – Hacker seemed more awake – nor chief medical officer Paul Kelly and any of the cast of the ABC’s Hollow Men, but if you’ve watched a bit of television, you’ll feel you’ve seen this show before, writes Michael Pascoe in this evaluation of Australia’s aged care situation.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2022/02/04/michael-pascoe-aged-care-covid/
Lisa Visentin writes that the right of church schools to expel LGBTIQ students will be scrapped as part of the government’s push to legislate religious freedom laws, as Scott Morrison tries to lock in the support of moderate Liberal MPs ahead of a potential vote on the bill in the next sitting fortnight. What a schemozzle!
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/pm-flags-amendment-to-religious-discrimination-bill-to-protect-lgbtiq-students-20220203-p59tga.html
The principal of a Brisbane school that demanded families sign anti-gay and anti-trans enrolment contracts previously lobbied senators to allow employers “the right to discriminate” against homosexuals. Citipointe Christian College principal Brian Mulheran, a Pentecostal pastor who has led the school for four years, does not hold teaching qualifications or registration, Guardian Australia can reveal. Pentecostals again!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/04/citipointe-christian-college-principal-lobbied-senators-for-right-to-discriminate-against-gay-people
The government is struggling to secure the support of three key backbenchers for its controversial religious discrimination bill ahead of next week’s crucial parliamentary sitting. Paul Karp tells us that Labor and the Coalition are today poised to deliver joint reports calling for the bill to be considered for passage through parliament.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/04/liberal-holdouts-unswayed-by-changes-to-religious-discrimination-bill-as-labor-unlikely-to-oppose
Andrew Charlton explains how, frustrated by decades of political inertia, Australians are waking up to a new type of climate activism: the power of their own money.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/in-the-climate-fight-your-wallet-is-more-powerful-than-your-vote-20220203-p59ti2.html
Coronavirus deaths among elderly Australians and aged care residents will continue to rise in the coming weeks, the country’s Chief Medical Officer has warned, and fourth doses are being considered to help combat an expected winter wave of COVID-19 and influenza.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/covid-19-deaths-to-rise-as-country-prepares-for-winter-flu-and-coronavirus-wave-20220203-p59ti3.html
Problems in Victoria’s hospital system emerged long before the pandemic struck, writes Josh Gordon who says Andrews needs to acknowledge these failures.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/andrews-government-must-acknowledge-failures-in-state-health-system-20220203-p59tfq.html
Rachel Eddie reports that two former managers of the St Basil’s aged care home in Melbourne’s north, where 50 residents died during a coronavirus outbreak in 2020, have filed an appeal against orders forcing them to give evidence at an inquest into the deaths.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/st-basil-s-bosses-fight-for-right-to-stay-silent-over-care-home-deaths-20220203-p59thc.html
A Sydney anaesthetist says thousands are suffering while waiting for surgery because the NSW government failed to prepare the healthcare system for the latest COVID surge. He says so-called elective surgery isn’t elective, it’s essential.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/elective-surgery-isn-t-elective-it-s-essential-20220202-p59t2v.html
A record 85 per cent of Australian businesses report staff shortages are holding back their ability to operate at full capacity and capitalise on the $245 billion in household savings stashed away during the pandemic, reports Ronald Mizen.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/businesses-shackled-by-shortages-everywhere-20220203-p59thu
Malcolm Turnbull has accused Scott Morrison of “a diplomatic debacle of the first order” after new emails showed Australian defence officials reported “good progress” on the French submarine project just two weeks before the deal was cancelled.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/03/a-diplomatic-debacle-of-the-first-order-malcolm-turnbull-savages-scott-morrison-over-scuttling-of-french-submarine-deal
Energy costs disproportionately affect poorer people, who are also less likely to have rooftop solar panels to offset the cost. Josh Dye tells us how a new report highlights the inequity.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/solar-panels-on-public-housing-could-save-tenants-750-a-year-report-20220201-p59t03.html
Mike Foley reports that Australia is backing its record on climate change and the environment and pushing back on the United Nations’ threat to remove the reef’s World Heritage status. Good luck with that!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/second-to-none-australia-responds-to-unesco-s-great-barrier-reef-warning-20220203-p59tky.html
By relying on consultants for policymaking, the government avoids making any serious contribution to the global effort to minimise temperature rise, writes Ian Dunlop in the second of his contributions on the subject.
https://johnmenadue.com/climate-catastrophe-now-inevitable-without-emergency-action/
Some of Australia’s refugees have been detained for a horrifying nine years. Meanwhile, we’ve kept voting for the people who are doing it, writes Hannah Thomas.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/indefinite-detention-is-a-disgrace-we-must-vote-to-end-it,16005
Australia’s reprehensible treatment of refugees now goes beyond cruelty, and instead could be described as evil, complains Stuart Rees.
https://johnmenadue.com/australias-structural-cruelty-goes-beyond-refugee-policy/
The head of Sport Integrity Australia used to investigate hard-core crime. Now he reveals why such skills are necessary in governing organised sport, writes Sam McClure.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/why-sport-needs-an-anti-gang-and-anti-terror-police-officer-on-the-beat-20211213-p59h4i.html
In dealing with the expansion of Chinese power and influence in our region, the Morrison Government has displayed little diplomatic skill or maturity, writes Geoffrey Dyer.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/diplomacy-dies-on-the-dung-hill-of-australia-china-relations,16007
Genocide or puffery and clickbait? Independent journalism is the touchstone of MWM. So when a widespread narrative about China is challenged, who better than former China correspondent for The Australian, Michael Sainsbury, to sort the wheat from the propaganda chaff?
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/information-wars-are-we-getting-a-fair-view-of-chinas-treatment-of-uyghurs/
The Beijing Winter Olympics which open this evening will produce some incredible sporting moments, but they risk being overshadowed by international political tension, says the editorial in the SMH.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/geopolitics-cast-a-cloud-over-beijing-winter-olympic-games-20220203-p59tn1.html
Shares of Facebook parent Meta plunged as much as 27 per cent in an epic rout that, in its sheer scale, is unlike anything Wall Street or Silicon Valley has ever seen. Just desserts!
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/meta-on-track-for-wall-street-s-biggest-one-day-share-drop-in-history-20220204-p59tpj.html
The global leader of the Islamic State network has died, along with his wife and children, during a counterterrorism raid by US forces in north-western Syria.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/us-special-ops-forces-launch-raid-in-north-west-syria-20220203-p59tnl.html
This guy accused of scamming retirees of $2.8 million denied bail earns nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/man-accused-of-scamming-retirees-of-2-8-million-denied-bail-20220203-p59tkj.html
Cartoon Corner
Andrew Dyson
David Rowe
David Pope
Simon Letch
Cathy Wilcox
Kim Pavlidis
Matt Golding
Glen Le Lievre
Mark Knight
John Shakespeare
Leak
From the US
“Labor, which could well inherit the situation in a matter of months, is piling on relentlessly and, in this column’s view, risks raising expectations too high as to how easy it will all be, should there be a change of government.”
Sorry Phil, don’t think Labor is doing that at all. Everything looks “too high” when the current lot is absolute rock bottom.
C@t, the first part of the Coorey article, which I haven’t posted conscious of William’s word length dictum, is all about Albo’s backflip on the Kurri gas fired plant. Announced quietly on Tuesday when ScoMo’s press club and the RBA meeting would consume all media oxygen, to avoid scrutiny.
Coorey catalogs contradictory quotes from a year ago from various ALP sources – almost as if someone had been keeping a dirt file ready to be handed to a friendly journo?
The downside of the new Senate voting system —
‘ unless some of these independents pull out of the race, the likelihood of Zed losing his Senate spot is actually decreasing. The only time when more candidates would have helped was under Group Ticket Voting, when all ticket preferences could be directed. That no longer exists.’
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7606661/progressives-need-to-think-about-the-senate/?cs=14246
On the up side, my vote for Labor in the Senate won’t flow through to the Greens. (Sorry, but there’s no way I can tick a box for Lidia Thorpe).
Thanks BK, much appreciation.
The nursing home resident with the ‘click click’ in today’s Rowe looks like Wilson Tuckey. I’m sure that’s just coincidental 😀
Thanks BK
The dominant themes appear to be:
– spiralling Aged Care crisis
– being met by a two pronged Morrison response of Religious Freedom and NSW preselection barney
It is most annoying to read that Morrison may lose the election due to factional brawling in the states.
I would have thought his mountain of failures as a PM would be sufficient. It seems the case is being built that should Morrison lose the election it will be narrowed down to the factional brawling of the states.
Certainly not based upon his absolute failure in the job.
D
But that’s a good thing. If the Liberals lose and decide it was all Morrison’s fault, they won’t look at what actually went wrong and they’ll go on repeating their mistakes.
sprocket_,
And Albanese and Labor thank Morrison and Taylor for the money to build a Clean Green Hydrogen-fuelled power plant in Kurri Kurri. 🙂
Morning all. Thanks BK for the roundup. Phil Coorey is becoming a caricature of a journalist.
ABC is reporting Scomo is doing a backflip, now supporting Mark McGowan’s border closures. Liberal polling in WA , must be really terrible.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-03/wa-coronavirus-update-19-new-cases-amid-school-cluster-concern/100800830
Thank you, BK.
The Liberals have a preselection mess in NSW — and it tells us something about Scott Morrison, writes Michelle Grattan.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-04/liberals-election-scott-morrison-factional-infighting/100803848
What it tells us is that Morrison and Hawke are relentless in their blind zealotry to populate the federal parliament of Australia with Pentecostals.
Good news for LABOR in Tasmanian seats, curtesy of PUP.
PUP leader Craig Kelly announced that PUP would be putting all incumbents last on their HTV propaganda at the next election. The only incumbents exempt from this plan would be incumbents willing to support two new private members bills he will bring forward during the final sitting weeks of parliament.
The first bill would curtail the powers of the immigration minister to arbitrarily revoke a visa. The second bill would be a reboot of his legislation stopping commonwealth, state and territory governments and other non-government entities from issuing domestic Covid-19 vaccine passports. Kelly said he would attempt to apply that prohibition to three vaccinations rather than two.
“The UAP strategy prompted significant anxiety among Morrison government MPs, given the Coalition was the primary beneficiary of preference flows in the 2019 election”.
The main reasons for Coalition concern are that of the 10 LABOR seats they are targeting in 2022, only one seat (Macquarie) would fall to the Coalition if 2019 PUP preferences flowed 100 % against the incumbent, it would drag preferences away from the Coalition held seats in Queensland in particular, and LABOR would benefit from PUP in Tasmania.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/01/craig-kelly-floats-preference-offer-for-liberal-mps-who-break-ranks-in-parliament
These calculations are based on the 2019 election results in Tasmania-
If UAP puts the incumbent last in 2022 and UAP get roughly the same PV support in Bass (3,332 votes or 4.9%), the Labor candidate would gain an extra 2,046 UAP preferences. That would win the seat for Labor by 1,483 votes.
The same scenario of 100% PUP preferences applied to Braddon would strip 1,695 preferences from the Liberal incumbent but leave Labor 2,634 votes short of winning this seat. The Labor PV would have to improve that much to re-claim the seat.
The same scenario of 100% PUP preferences applied to Lyons would strip 1,917 preferences from the Labor incumbent but leave Liberal candidate 5,477 votes short of winning this seat.
So LABOR would hold Lyons, get a better result in Braddon and win Bass if PUP sticks with this approach to the 2022 election and the anti-vaccination RWNJ voters in Tasmania stick with PUP. It may not be much to worry about in most seats across Australia, but in Tassie and NSW at least PUP is Labor’s friend.
Coorey is a self-admitted cynic who is on the feed and who routinely applies the bulk of his cynical energy against Labor.
It is hard to take him at face value.
“Labor, which could well inherit the situation in a matter of months, is piling on relentlessly and, in this column’s view, risks raising expectations too high as to how easy it will all be, should there be a change of government.”
I think this is closer to the truth than many on here care to admit. Winning the election usually proves to be the easy part. I do have faith in Mark Butler as a prospective health minister but the proof will be in the pudding.
In other words, it’s pretty hard to assess shadow ministers and the opp leader based solely on them saying the right things in opposition. Nobody really knows how they’ll perform until they get there. Of course, I am extremely hopeful and optimistic.
ISIS Leader Killed in US Military Raid. US Special Operations forces conducted a “successful” counter-terrorism raid in northwest Syria that killed the leader of ISIS, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi al-Quraishi. Officials say that during the raid al-Quraishi detonated a bomb that killed him and his family members, including children. The Pentagon says there were no US casualties. Residents of the Syrian town of Atmeh report several civilians died in the raid, which they say lasted over two hours and involved helicopters, machine-gun fire, and explosions. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says the raid killed at least nine people, including two children and a woman. The Pentagon says it will release more information about the operation as it becomes available. Associated Press Reuters Al Jazeera
You’d think Gladys would remember a once in a lifetime event.
C@tmomma
Kurri Kurri looks like green washing and a huge bill for the taxpayers. Bowen having his finger in the pie gives even less confidence in it.
.
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Does Labor’s green hydrogen plan for the Kurri Kurri gas power plant stack up?
Graham Readfearn
Energy analysts say their Hunter Valley plan is just ‘an expensive way to avoid a small amount of emissions’ when there are cheaper, greener alternatives
Energy Security Board, Kerry Schott, have said regardless of what the plant runs on, it makes little commercial sense and won’t be needed to firm the supply of electricity.
Chris Bowen, told Temperature Check the initial requirement to have the plant run on 30% green hydrogen (that is, hydrogen with zero emissions, presumably derived from renewable energy) would relate to the volume of hydrogen being added.
Dr Fiona Beck, an expert on the emerging green hydrogen industry at the Australian National University, says that distinction is important.
Methane has about three times as much energy by volume as hydrogen. So she says if 30% of the volume of fuel added is hydrogen, you don’t cut emissions by 30%. Rather, you only cut emissions by about 12%.
That’s not insignificant, but it’s also not that much for a plant that will hardly ever run in the first place. Adding hydrogen will also push up costs. And it’s going to cost about $600m, and Bowen has said more will need to be spent to allow the plant to burn more hydrogen.
Energy analysts have also said that of all the uses for clean hydrogen, blending it in power plants is likely to be one of the least economically viable uses.
But Beck says a plant like Kurri Kurri – built to cover only peaks in demand – would also be competing with other technologies that can do the same job, such as batteries or pumped hydro.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/feb/03/does-labors-green-hydrogen-plan-for-the-kurri-kurri-gas-power-plant-stack-up
Albo helping PsychoGate along on breakfast TV..
Well, it’s time for someone just to come forward and ‘fess up as to who sent that text message. We know that one-half of the exchanges was Gladys Berejiklian.
And, for me, it wasn’t the personal abuse that is there and the character assessments. The most damning indictment of the prime minister was the premier of New South Wales at the time who was doing a job each and every day on the bushfire crisis, saying that the prime minister was more concerned about politics than he was about people at that time!
With all the shit mounting up all around him, Morrison, the child actor, a self proclaimed adoptee into the Shire, is still attempting to herd chooks.
Morrison, thinking he’ll be a successful chook herder is very similar to the curriculum fiddlers, attempting to herd beliefs in a now very multi-cultural Australia.
The latest liberal/Morrison thought bubble is the new emphasis to be placed on “beware of the yellow peril” and Albanese/Labor will hold hands with the communists.
Australia’s biggest worry is that Morrison, having been tossed out of the PM’s Office, and being relatively young, will be around for yonks portraying an awful elder statesman and adding another unnecessary drain on the federal finances.
How long to the election!
poroti,
The competition is between the COALition plan, using Blue (Brown) Hydrogen, and Labor’s plan, using Green Hydrogen. That is all that counts right now. Getting the build to accommodate and use Green Hydrogen. Powered by Renewables. With the Energy Grid upgraded. The race right now is to get that competition run and won successfully for Green Hydrogen over Blue Hydrogen.
Illegal campers and vehicles being moved
https://www.policenews.act.gov.au/news/media-releases/illegal-campers-and-vehicles-being-moved
C@tmomma at 8:31 am
“Bit less shit than the other mob.”, an inspiring reason for what will be a tax dollar money pit. Meanwhile the fossil fuelled arseholes responsible for so much shit and inaction will continue laughing all the way to the bank………………………….again.
One of the country’s largest unions has been quietly targeting voters in must-win federal electorates with a scare campaign falsely claiming the Coalition has a secret plan that would stop pensioners buying Christmas presents for their grandchildren.
Two ads run last year online by the 150,000 member United Workers Union appear to emulate the devastatingly effective “Mediscare” and death taxes campaigns that hit the Coalition and Labor, respectively, at the last two elections.
They link to a site asserting with words and imagery that Prime Minister Scott Morrison intends to force aged pensioners nationwide onto cashless debit cards, which restrict welfare money to stop it being used on alcohol and gambling.
https://www.theage.com.au/technology/mediscare-redux-top-union-targets-pensioners-in-shadowy-online-ad-campaign-20220202-p59tc6.html
Why is Barnaby the star choice for David Speers this weekend? He adds nothing, but defends Morrison.
So what’s happening with the other leader spiralling into oblivion? Boris Johnson, after claiming Keir Starmer failed to prosecute Jimmy Saville, now finds his long term staffer resigning. This report from the BBC is well put together..
https://twitter.com/bbcrosatkins/status/1489334496197545987?s=21
One wonders why Facebook is losing subscribers
The top-performing link posts by U.S. Facebook pages in the last 24 hours are from:
1. Breitbart
2. Ben Shapiro
3. Dan Bongino
4. NPR
5. Ben Shapiro
6. Ben Shapiro
7. Ben Shapiro
8. Steven Crowder
9. Ben Shapiro
10. Franklin Graham
I am going to risk the ire of William here by posting this MUST READ article which summarises the fickleness of Scomo on Covid in great detail. .. nuff said (Sorry William, I had to)
Scott Morrison’s huge Covid backflip: ‘Fickle’ PM has taken EVERY position imaginable on the virus and now even one of his biggest supporters has turned on him – so does he stand for ANYTHING?
By CHARLIE MOORE, POLITICAL REPORTER FOR DAILY MAIL AUSTRALIA
Just six weeks ago, Scott Morrison was railing against mask mandates, QR codes and general government involvement in Australians’ lives during the Covid pandemic. But this week the Prime Minister has completely changed his tune – declaring he was wrong to raise the nation’s hopes about Covid and even backing Western Australia’s hard border after months of calling for free movement across the nation.
Asked on Perth radio on Thursday if McGowan did the right thing by delaying the state’s opening date, the Prime Minister flatly replied: ‘Yeah, I think he did.’ Sources close to the Prime Minister claim he did stand up to Premier McGowan and point to a section of the radio interview where he appeared to blame the premier for not better preparing the WA hospital system.
‘Well, I’m saying that’s the Premier’s call. That’s what I’m saying. And he has to make that decision based on what he thinks his health system is ready to absorb,’ Mr Morrison said.
The extraordinary backflip fuelled long-standing criticism the PM has no firm ideology and simply adapts his views based on prevailing public opinion.
Labor identified Mr Morrison’s apparent lack of conviction as a weak spot, with the Opposition’s health spokesman Mark Butler telling Daily Mail Australia the about-face showed the PM is ‘fickle’ and cannot be trusted.
Mr Morrison faced friendly fire on Thursday, with Sky News host and former Liberal advisor Chris Kenny hammering Mr Morrison for not calling West Australian Premier Mark McGowan out for reneging on reopening the border. Kenny said on Thursday night:
“Mark McGowan’s wrong and the Prime Minister didn’t call him out on it. (The PM) needs to call out Mark McGowan on this. He’s the Prime Minister of Australia! He should support no internal hard borders. We need politicians who’ll make the right call for the country, not try and second-guess the politics.”
Major backflip
As recently as December Mr Morrison repeatedly denounced Covid restrictions, urging state premiers to get out of Australians’ lives and treat the disease like flu.
In a keynote speech to the Sydney Institute he presented himself as a longstanding libertarian who had reluctantly been forced to oversee unprecedented restrictions on the Australian people.
“While necessary, it is not normal for government to tell Australians where we can and can’t go, who we can and can’t invite into our homes, to stay home, to close our businesses. None of these restrictions belong in the lives of Australians. Australians don’t like it. I don’t like it. It is time for governments to step back and let Australians step forward… to put Australians back in charge of their own lives.”
On government restrictions
December 13: ‘None of these restrictions belong in the lives of Australians. Australians don’t like it. I don’t like it’
January 19: ‘We have density arrangements tailored to the circumstances in each state and territory. We have strong border controls which we stand up for and we protect’
On masks
December 21: ‘We’ve got to treat Australians like adults, and we all have our own responsibility in our communities and for our own health’
January 19: ‘In Australia, we have isolation and we have testing where necessary. We have masks and distancing rules’
On WA’s border
November 9: ‘Once you go over 80 per cent and you keep things locked down, you are doing more harm than good to your economy’
November 30: ‘I look forward to everybody coming together for Christmas and New Year’s and the summer holidays… we need to make calm decisions, not get spooked by (Omicron)’
December 13: ‘Australia is going to be connected and together again. This will be welcome news for thousands of Western Australians looking forward to reuniting with family and friends after so long apart’
The comments were well received by Liberal and National MPs, many of whom shared that view and had been espousing it for months.
The following week – as the Omicron variant continued to spread rapidly – Mr Morrison went further and specifically denounced mask mandates which were the subject of hot debate after NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet scrapped them on December 15 along with density limits and QR code check-ins. In a clumsy metaphor, he compared wearing a mask to applying sunscreen by insisting it was a personal choice that should not be enforced.
‘We don’t have to mandate people wearing sunscreen and hats in summer. We have put in place measures that Australians can live with. And what that means is we have to move from a culture of mandates to a culture of responsibility,’ he declared.
“As a country, we’ve got to get past the heavy hand of government and we’ve got to treat Australians like adults, and we all have our own responsibility in our communities and for our own health.”
Two days later on January 23, Premier Perrottet reintroduced mask mandates as case numbers hit record highs in New South Wales and the Prime Minister faced heightened criticism for loudly supporting the original decision to scrap them.
Morrison then quietened his pro-freedom rhetoric and bunkered down for Christmas. On a visit to Bribie Island near Brisbane on December 21, Mr Morrison doubled down on his opposition to mask mandates and urged premiers to treat Australians ‘like adults’
With 106,000 Covid cases recorded on 12 January, Mr Albanese accused the Prime Minister of recklessly endangering lives by favouring a ‘let it rip’ tactic.
As businesses struggled with staff shortages due to the spread of the virus and Australians battled to find scarce rapid antigen tests, the Government’s poll ratings slumped to a devastating three-year low, putting it 12 points behind Labor.
The supportive comments marked a dramatic change for Mr Morrison, who in November blasted Mr McGowan for keeping his border shut contrary to the national reopening plan which said there would be no domestic restrictions once 80 per cent of people are vaccinated. ‘Once you go over 80 per cent and you keep things locked down, you are doing more harm than good to your economy,’ Mr Morrison told reporters back then.
As recently as December 13 – even with Omicron spreading – the Prime Minister had spoken about the importance of ending internal borders, saying: ‘Australia is going to be connected and together again. This will be welcome news for thousands of Western Australians looking forward to reuniting with family and friends after so long apart’.
Labor Health Minister Mr Butler savaged the change of tune, telling Daily Mail Australia: ‘All Australians know you can’t trust a word Scott Morrison says.
‘He’s saying one thing to Perth, and something different in Parramatta.’
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10471099/Scott-Morrisons-big-Covid-backflip-backs-Mark-McGowan.html?ito=push-notification&ci=epYYkJUQD5&cri=ZeqE9w6krz&si=YeXxE26K_70f&xi=7beded47-be17-43f6-9df7-1a15cd8a7775&ai=10471099
NSW:
– 2,494 hospitalisations
– 160 people in ICU
– 31 lives lost
– 10,698 positive tests: 6,122 RAT & 4,576 PCR