Pearce off

Important Liberal preselections loom in Christian Porter’s seat and, by all accounts, Greg Hunt’s. Also: voter identification laws off the table for now.

A lot of news at the moment concerning matters pertinent to this blog, with Christian Porter announcing yesterday he will not contest the election, Greg Hunt universally expected to follow suit with today’s last parliamentary sitting day of the year, and voter identification legislation scuttled after a deal between government and opposition.

Annabel Hennessy of The West Australian reports a nominee has already come forward for Liberal preselection in Christian Porter’s loseable northern Perth seat of Pearce: Miquela Riley, a former naval officer and current PwC Australia manager who performed a thankless task as the party’s candidate for Fremantle at the March state election. Other potential nominees identified are Libby Lyons, former director of the Australian Government’s Workplace Gender Equality Agency, and Alyssa Hayden, who held the state seat of Darling Range from 2018 until her defeat in March and was earlier in the Legislative Council from 2009 to 2017.

• The most widely named successor to Greg Hunt as Liberal candidate for the Victorian seat of Flinders is Zoe McKenzie, an NBN Co director and former chief-of-staff to Abbott-Turnbull government Trade Minister Andrew Robb. The Age reports other potential starters are Mark Brudenell, chief-of-staff at Latitude Financial and former adviser to Malcolm Turnbull as both Communications Minister and Prime Minister, and Simon Breheny, former Institute of Public Affairs policy director.

• A deal between government and opposition has resulted in the abandonment of plans to introduce voter identification at the coming election. In exchange, Labor has agreed to support a bill that will halve the expenditure threshold at which third parties will have to file disclosure returns, over the objections of critics who argue the associated red tape will discourage charities from political campaigning. It appeared unlikely the voter identification bill would have gained the required votes in the Senate, with Jacqui Lambie having announced yesterday she would vote against it.

• Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are pursuing a High Court action against recently enacted legislation that will prevent parties other than the main ones having words like Liberal and Labor in their name. Absent a favourable outcome, this will presumably result in formal challenges against the Liberal Democrats and the New Liberals, the latter of whom have withdrawn their application to change their name simply to TNL.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,183 comments on “Pearce off”

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  1. You are right about ‘building stuff’ AR – the Rewiring the Nation to transition to renewable and battery domination is non trivial – $20B direct and $58B co-invested. Pent up demand looking for national leadership and clear targets.

    Environmental Protection, if that’s what you mean by EPA, is a parallel but separate policy – p24 talks a bit about carbon farming, reforestation, leveraging indigenous knowledge.

    It is true that ‘the environment will always be better off under a Labor government’.

  2. “Your comments on Labor’s policy on EVs are based on ignorance, Firefox.”

    ***

    No mate, they’re based on Labor’s own announcements…

    Labor to dump fuel emissions plan in next step on climate

    Labor will dump a contentious plan to set new fuel standards for millions of motorists in a bid to neutralise a growing political attack from Prime Minister Scott Morrison ahead of a bigger fight on climate change.

    The vehicle emission standard will be formally dropped when Labor leader Anthony Albanese signs off on the party’s climate policy with shadow ministers, as they prepare for a caucus briefing this Friday on the coming election campaign.

    The Labor policy on fuel standards was part of a package in the 2019 election campaign to encourage the adoption of electric vehicles so they would make up 50 per cent of new car sales by 2030, a target that triggered a war of words with Mr Morrison.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-to-dump-fuel-emissions-plan-in-next-step-on-climate-20211130-p59dkj.html

    Like I said, Labor is going backwards from their already weak 2019 policies.

  3. sprocket_ says:
    Friday, December 3, 2021 at 4:09 pm

    You are right about ‘building stuff’ AR – the Rewiring the Nation to transition to renewable and battery domination is non trivial – $20B direct and $58B co-invested. Pent up demand looking for national leadership and clear targets.

    Environmental Protection, if that’s what you mean by EPA, is a parallel but separate policy – p24 talks a bit about carbon farming, reforestation, leveraging indigenous knowledge.

    It is true that ‘the environment will always be better off under a Labor government’.
    =====================================
    The environment ministers under Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison have been terrible.

  4. “I feel a lot has changed since 2010.”

    I agree it has but Labor is taking a policy to this election that is worse not better in line with the changes. And half the true believers seem to think it is adequate the other half justify it as a lie to get elected.

  5. “The over the top hysterical reaction to Labor’s CC policy is about what I expected from the usual suspects here.”

    ***

    I love how we all refer to each other as “the usual suspects” lol

  6. When the BCA announces that it wants an increase in corporate taxes to pay for climate action you know they are fair dinkum.
    When the BAC slays the Morrison Government for its record on climate action you know they are fair dinkum.
    ATM all they are doing is what the Greens are doing: virtue signalling with nothing to show for it over the last 30 years.

  7. Player One says:
    Friday, December 3, 2021 at 3:54 pm
    Sir Henry Parkes @ #878 Friday, December 3rd, 2021 – 3:46 pm

    Labor has pledged to invest in green technology, aiming to make the grid as renewable as possible.

    After all, the last such government implemented a good carbon pricing policy, only to have it demonised and then demolished as soon as that government lost office.

    So, the key takeaway from today’s big announcement is that Labor’s strategy is … wait for it …

    “Technology, not Taxes”

    Now, where have I heard that one before? Just give me a minute …
    _____________________________________________________
    That is just a cheap shot P1. I also don’t have much time for people whose only response to the climate debate is to say “vote independent”. I suggest you take the time to actually read Albo’s statement today. If you then maintain there is no difference between the big parties, you are probably only looking for a reason not to vote Labor.
    I’ve always suspected you’re a Tory in green makeup. Now’s your chance to prove me wrong.

  8. And as predictably as night follows day, Scott Morrison was just on the Afternoon News on 9 saying that Labor’s Climate Change policy would put your energy bills up! Which Ch 9 put on just after modelling which shows that your Energy bills would go down with Labor’s policy. 🙂

  9. sprocket_

    So for a $24 billion spend Labor’s plan will create 64,000 new jobs over the next 8 years.
    Of those 20,460 are in electricity, 37,574 are in “carbon farming” and 5,000 in transport.

    The vast bulk of the additional jobs – 427,400 – are supposedly coming from indirect job creation in the electricity sector. The electricity sector currently employs 60,000 workers (ABS November 2020: https://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/GainInsights/EmploymentProjections ) and is expected to grow to 65,000 by 2025. Labor’s magic pudding modelling indicates that the sector will employ just shy of 500,000 workers by 2030.

    Hopefully Labor has something more than concrete than these rubbery figures because LNP will have a field day.

  10. oh my god i thought that lowering the extremist unelectable 45% target to the extremely intelligent machiavellian and electable 43% would have prevented the Liberals from being able to criticise it. I am gobsmacked. Outfoxed by the LNP yet again.

  11. Jane Garrett the latest exit from the Andrews Government.

    Daniel Andrews will have a fresh and re-invigorated team to govern Victoria for the next decade.

  12. Albo found a nice wedge space on Climate Change. The Greens are a failure cos no one can recite any coherent Transition plan from them – it is thier Number 1 issues to educate the Public on!, They were made irrelevant in the WA election campaign with the Libs even having a more coherent policy than them, and now there is room for Idependent climate change candidates in the Fed election – so why even bother with a Green Party!!

  13. bakunin,
    Instead of taking cheap potshots at Labor’s modelling, tell us where those ‘rubbery figures’ are?

    Also, if you are indeed an expert in judging modelling then you would have heard about a thing called ‘variables’ and know that nothing can be predicted by a model with 100% confidence.

  14. “so why even bother with a Green Party!!”

    I don’t know perhaps because they seem to be the only ones with a grasp on science and reality and not a fully owned subsidiary of donors.

    If only someone would teach them how to do politics.

  15. FL,

    That’s the key to this debate.

    The modelled numbers aren’t reality. They’re the best guess based on estimates of people who you don’t know. Labor seems to have done a lot of work using respected independent evaluation to to guide their policy. So, I believe it is backed up by solid science and research.

    The policy is now out there and the Labor haters can just suck it up.

  16. Firefox, pulling out that vehicle emissions standard article is a text book example of what is wrong with the Greens. The perfect is the enemy of the good.

    Especially when the perfect is ripe for misrepresentation by malevolent forces.

    Labor’s alternate plan on EVs is based on tax benefits, hence lower cost, along with charging infrastructure expansion. And getting big fleet owners like the Public Service to switch to EVs by 2025. This will generate the second hand EV market sadly missing now.

    Not as heart warming as the ‘everything now’ policy of the Greens, but practical real action.

  17. Firefox says:
    Friday, December 3, 2021 at 4:00 pm
    “But tell me how it will work this time?”

    ***

    Labor needs to be honest with people and take a serious climate policy into the election. Argue the case for change like the Greens do. Don’t say you’ll take these weak policies to the election then change them once you get in, take strong policies to the election instead. Gain a mandate for taking serious action, just as the Greens did in 2010.

    The Greens are being upfront and honest with people. We are saying that we will push the government further if we are in a position to do so.
    _________________________________________________________
    I wish it were that simple Firefox. I would love Labor, hell, even the Coalition parties, to tell the people that climate change is real and dangerous and that the only solution is to get out of fossil fuels as soon as possible. I would also love them to say that any workers in affected industries will be looked after and promised jobs in the emerging renewable energy industries, which government will encourage.
    Unfortunately there are probably too many voters not ready to accept this reality and just enough who are only concerned about the only jobs they’ve ever known.
    You might get them to admit that climate change is real, but they’d probably also say it wasn’t as bad as people think and that they don’t see why they should sacrifice their job for someone else.
    That is why politicians have to play it smart and, as other posters have pointed out, take the people with them step by step.
    I think it was Gough Whitlam who said the best government was always just ahead of public opinion, but not so far ahead that the public lost sight of it.

  18. As someone who has modelled in a context where we genuinely wanted to know and plan well (ie we weren’t trying to win an election with lies and half truths) i can tell you ALL the projections are rubbery.

    One part of the model had oil between 20 and 40 dollars a barrel over the next 25 years!

  19. “That is why politicians have to play it smart and, as other posters have pointed out, take the people with them step by step.”

    But they are not walking people forward they are jumping back to where they think they are without the honesty to tell them where they will try and take them.

  20. I agree it has but Labor is taking a policy to this election that is worse not better in line with the changes. And half the true believers seem to think it is adequate the other half justify it as a lie to get elected.

    It sucks. It all sucks. The issue should be as apolitical as CFCs and tobacco warnings. But how do you deal with a well funded bunch of selfinterested crackpot gravy junkies, their media symbiosis pals and a large portion of the population who believe whatever a fat grey haired mining magnate billionaire (who lives in a gated community and under fraud investigation) tells them on social media and another large portion who will never ever ever vote for the ALP no matter how bad (they agree) the LNP climate policies are?

    It is f’d up.

  21. Sounds like WeWantPaul doesn’t want Labor to get elected either and is happy to also continue to take cheap potshots at them from the sidelines, just ignoring the vast majority of the electorate that don’t have the secure, well-paying job that he has, and who think it important that the bills they have to pay are taken into account by political parties. Not to mention the jobs they need to have to make the money to pay the bills.

    Ah, the luxury of political purity.

  22. SA has 4 new cases. 2 believed to be contracted interstate, 1 linked to the “Norwood cluster” and 1 where the source is unknown.

    I am so glad SA opened up to the great unwashed when they did. Why?

  23. Gain a mandate for taking serious action, just as the Greens did in 2010.

    I seem to have missed The Greens majority government of 2010. 😐

  24. Labor releases something positive on climate.

    Morrison is tangled in yet another lie imbroglio.
    The Liberals are in yet another sex scandal in NSW.
    Tudge has had to stand aside because of allegations of psychological and physical abuse.
    A Liberal senator is all locked up for various ANTICs.
    A Nat resigns from the Nats following child sex charges.

    Bandt?
    Yammers about Labor.

  25. Sounds like WeWantPaul doesn’t want Labor to get elected either

    You (and I) are making the assumption a low target climate policy will help them get elected. It is an assumption that others have every right and some cause to argue against.

  26. “It is f’d up”

    With that I can agree 100%.

    “that don’t have the secure, well-paying job that he has”

    I haven’t had job security in more than a decade and I have had three insecure jobs in the last 12 months, so you are showing your usual level of insight and credibility.

    Have a great afternoon!

  27. Hi Jen,

    Nice to see you up and about.

    FYI if you delete the bit from the last question mark in that link and substitute .jpg the image will appear instead.

  28. Simon Katich @ #924 Friday, December 3rd, 2021 – 4:32 pm

    I agree it has but Labor is taking a policy to this election that is worse not better in line with the changes. And half the true believers seem to think it is adequate the other half justify it as a lie to get elected.

    It sucks. It all sucks. The issue should be as apolitical as CFCs and tobacco warnings. But how do you deal with a well funded bunch of selfinterested crackpot gravy junkies, their media symbiosis pals and a large portion of the population who believe whatever a fat grey haired mining magnate billionaire (who lives in a gated community and under fraud investigation) tells them on social media and another large portion who will never ever ever vote for the ALP no matter how bad (they agree) the LNP climate policies are?

    It is f’d up.

    That’s the truth.

  29. “It sucks. It all sucks. The issue should be as apolitical as CFCs and tobacco warnings.”

    ***

    It probably will be one day but by then it may be too late. There’s going to come a time when humanity looks back at this point in history with a sense of bewilderment. “What on earth were they thinking?” they will ask, just as we do when we look back at the mistakes and wrongdoings of the past.

  30. The Electric Vehicle Council thinks Firefox is speaking from ignorance as well 🙂

    16:38
    The Electric Vehicle Council are similarly pleased with Labor today. Albanese’s plan would make electric vehicles cheaper with an electric car discount and Australia’s first national electric vehicle strategy.

    EVC chief executive Behyad Jafari:

    Labor’s plan for a National Electric Vehicle Policy is well overdue for Australia; the Electric Vehicle Council is ready and eager to support its development. Working with industry will be critical in creating a plan that maximises the enormous benefits of electric vehicles.

    Australia should be building batteries and electric vehicles, but we have so far been let down by a lack of ambition at a federal level. Left unchecked, these manufacturing opportunities and their associated jobs will go elsewhere.

    It’s a welcome development to see the debate now shifting to how to embrace the future of electric vehicles in Australia. Making it easier for Australians to make the switch through discounts will help us catch up to the rest of the world. Labor’s policy, if implemented, will make Australia’s streets cleaner and quieter, lower health costs, reduce carbon emissions and break our dependence on foreign oil.

  31. WeWantPaul @ #918 Friday, December 3rd, 2021 – 4:26 pm

    “so why even bother with a Green Party!!”

    I don’t know perhaps because they seem to be the only ones with a grasp on science and reality and not a fully owned subsidiary of donors.

    If only someone would teach them how to do politics.

    First lesson is promote your own policies far and wide on social media, without reference to other parties – and let the voter make up their own mind.

  32. “It probably will be one day but by then it may be too late. ”

    It is already to late to be sure we can get under 1.5 + that was considered tolerable, from here successful urgent action probably gets us 1.5 to 2.5 +, essentially we are on a path to destination f*cked and not the hilarious youtube video type.

  33. Sir Henry Parkes

    Unfortunately there are probably too many voters not ready to accept this reality and just enough who are only concerned about the only jobs they’ve ever known.

    You might get them to admit that climate change is real, but they’d probably also say it wasn’t as bad as people think and that they don’t see why they should sacrifice their job for someone else.

    This is the crux of the problem that Labor has to deal with, and that the Greens don’t.

    I live in the seat of Newcastle and I have frequently come into interaction with people who are not sold on climate action, particurlarly in places like Cessnock, Kurri Kurri and Singleton, places that derive a lot of prosperity from coal mining. It is backbreaking work engaging in those kinds of conversations.

    These are the kinds of voters that Labor has to win in order to win government. The Greens have the luxury of advocating for policies that these voters don’t support. Labor does not.

    I can say from personal experience, rhetoric about the house burning down wins people who already agree with me over – but for the average voter, it’s a turn-off. Talk about jobs and opportunities on the other hand, and you can get the conversation going.

  34. Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, December 3, 2021 at 4:20 pm
    Jane Garrett the latest exit from the Andrews Government.
    ————-
    She has been just marking time for a while now, so probably for the best. Without having any insight into the CFA issue, which brought her political career down, I suspect she may have been caught between a rock and a hard place with that politically toxic issue.

    None of the exits so far, Richard Wynne excepted, have been key figures in the current government and their departures are unlikely to result in a loss of experience or notable talent.

  35. ACCI applauds Labor..

    “It is encouraging to see updated 2030 targets that push the frame towards more ambitious action on climate change. If Australian businesses are to remain international competitive, we must have the clear policy settings that that signal this commitment.

    “Reforms to reduce the baseline of the safeguard mechanisms are a sensible approach, recognising that the businesses need certainty to be able to compete with their foreign counterparts. This will provide a stable policy framework for the biggest emitters to adopt renewable energy resources.

    “We give the Opposition credit for announcing its detailed emissions policy well in advance of the forthcoming federal election. This means businesses and the Australian public now have the capacity to assess both major parties in this policy area.

    https://www.australianchamber.com.au/news/oppositions-plan-a-chance-to-end-climate-uncertainty/

  36. “Talk about jobs and opportunities on the other hand, and you can get the conversation going.”

    FFS yes call it a jobs and infrastructure plan, even sleepy creepy Biden got that far, fund it fully and bingo there is even a risk you be a leader.

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