Lockdown miscellany

Top end preselection news, a date set for a Queensland state by-election, and the latest on federal and state redistributions.

As a new financial year dawns, it’s all happening on Poll Bludger — in addition to this post, there is:

• A new post by Adrian Beaumont on Britain’s Batley and Spen by-election, French regional elections and the New York City mayoral election;

• A post on the new draft state redistribution for Victoria, including my calculations of party vote shares for the new boundaries;

• A post on the federal redistribution for Victoria, which has now been finalised, and which likewise comes with an accounting of party vote shares under the new boundaries, and some analysis of how the changes affects the Greens prospects in Macnamara and Higgins; and

• The regular bi-monthly donation drive.

Further developments:

• The Northern Territory Country Liberal Party has preselected Jacinta Price as its Senate candidate at the expense of incumbent Sam McMahon, who came to the position at the 2019 election. Price is the deputy mayor of Alice Springs Council and head of indigenous research at conservative think thank the Centre for Independent Studies, and ran unsuccessfully for the CLP in Lingiari at the 2019 election. McMahon was in the news last week after her unsteadiness while in the Senate chamber prompted allegations she was drunk, although she insisted she had in fact been suffering symptoms of severe hypertension.

• The mayor of Alice Springs, Damien Ryan, has been preselected by the CLP as its new candidate for Lingiari, which will be vacated with the retirement of Labor veteran Warren Snowdon. Labor’s new candidate is Marion Scrymgour, former Deputy Chief Minister and current chief executive of the Northern Land Council.

• Federal parliament’s Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has published the report from its inquiry on the future conduct of elections operating during times of emergency situations. After considering the recent experiences of Queensland council elections, the Eden-Monaro by-election and general elections in Tasmania and the Northern Territory, it offers fairly modest recommendations: to give the Electoral Commissioner the power to extend pre-polling periods and allow for no-excuse postal and pre-poll voting (which exists de facto in any case) should the circumstances demand it, and to change the Electoral Act to change the date of an election in an emergency, giving better effect to a power that already exists under the Constitution.

• July 24 has been set as the date for Queensland’s Stretton by-election, which will fill the vacancy created by Labor member Duncan Pegg’s resignation after a terminal cancer diagnosis in May, followed weeks later by his death. The by-election will be contested for Labor by James Martin, a former electorate officer to Pegg, and for the Liberal National Party by Jim Bellos, a police officer and former Queenslander of the Year. Labor’s margin in the seat is 14.8%; I’ll be publishing a guide to the by-election soon-ish.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,534 comments on “Lockdown miscellany”

Comments Page 2 of 51
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  1. sprocket_ @ #44 Thursday, July 1st, 2021 – 7:58 am

    Victor Dominello is in the ‘moderate’ faction of the NSW Liberal Party, a protege of Michael Photios.

    And despite being from a used car sales family, I have to fact check the normally well researched and accurate C@t, the ‘Up the Windsor Road from Baulkalm Hills’ jingle was for Tony Packard Holden.

    Thanks, sprocket_. I think. 😀

    It was Dominello Ford then. I think. 😆

  4. @Vic_Rollison
    ·
    15m
    So have I got this right? Morrison’s govt has been letting thousands of non-resident business travellers in and out of Australia, yet when they get here he won’t take responsibility for quarantine, and if virus leaks and gets into community it’s the states’ problem to deal with?

  7. @mjrowland68
    ·
    1h
    The co-chair of the Commonwealth’s expert vaccine panel (ATAGI) says Australians under 40 should NOT get the AstraZeneca vaccine, expect in ‘pressing circumstances.’

    Assoc Professor Christopher Blyth has told ‘AM’ the situations where under 40s should get AZ are ‘quite small’.

    So of course the Gov and Murdoch have gone into full battle against Annastacia.

  8. ‘laughtong says:
    Thursday, July 1, 2021 at 8:00 am

    This looks like good news

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/national-archives-gets-money-to-save-decaying-documents-20210701-p585rx.html‘
    ________________________________
    It is only a fraction of what is needed. It will only do very urgent and very important. Most of the archived material will still rot away. The most corrupt federal government since Federation fears and loathes information that might damage it and deploys information that will help it. This government hates universities for much the same set of reasons.

  9. @JBPooket
    ·
    12h
    Nick Coatesworth suggests a few 18 yr olds dying of the vaccine don’t matter because plenty of 18 yr olds suicide anyway. Here is one reason the ads he is in are not resonating with the public. #abc730

    I suspect this comment has been a bit exaggerated (I didn’t see 7.30) but it does have a flavour of LNP/IPA attitude.

  10. Simon (Lipstick) Birmingham confuses accountability with politicisation. As a fully fledged frontline apologist for this ragtag motley crew of a government I can see why he would.

  11. lizzie @ #60 Thursday, July 1st, 2021 – 8:18 am

    @JBPooket
    ·
    12h
    Nick Coatesworth suggests a few 18 yr olds dying of the vaccine don’t matter because plenty of 18 yr olds suicide anyway. Here is one reason the ads he is in are not resonating with the public. #abc730

    I suspect this comment has been a bit exaggerated (I didn’t see 7.30) but it does have a flavour of LNP/IPA attitude.

    I thought he had resigned as DCMO? So why talk to him any more? I tell you, they are softening the public up to accept him as a Liberal candidate.

  15. Don’t the Greens have any shame at all? They say David O’Byrne position as LOP of Tasmania in untenable (fair enough) but keep defending Lydia Thorpe for her aggressive and abusive behaviour towards an Aboriginal woman because she thinks she is entitled to it for being a Senator and earning more salary.

  18. Scientists are contradicting the latest claims of Environment Minister Sussan Ley who says UNESCO was suggesting Australia can single-handedly lower global greenhouse gas emissions when it slapped an “in danger” warning on the Great Barrier Reef.
    …
    Ms Ley’s spokesman said UNESCO’s decision was made with “undue haste”, did not acknowledge the most up to date information from Commonwealth agencies on water quality or take into account “billions of dollars” being invested in renewable energy.

    Professor Terry Hughes of the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies said it was not a case of being singled out, but rather Australia was unique among wealthy nations that have corals reefs due to its lack of climate commitments.

    “It should be no surprise UNESCO has linked Australia’s lack of progress on reducing emissions to an in danger listing on the Great Barrier Reef. Australia should be at the forefront of international climate efforts and that’s hardly the case,” Professor Hughes said.

    Macquarie University pro-vice-chancellor Lesley Hughes said Australia is a “huge contributor” to global warming and the federal government “could do a lot” to address it with more ambitious climate policies.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/scientists-reject-minister-s-blast-over-unesco-barrier-reef-downgrade-20210630-p585ll.html

  19. Morning all. The statements of ATAGI co-chair Prof Chris Blyth confirm that Morrison’s statement on AZ for under 40s was a panic driven lie. Nobody had agreed to it either in the National Cabinet or the medical establishment.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-01/atagi-co-chair-pours-cold-water-on-morrison-az-comments/100257392

    So now Birmingham says Morrison’s critics are “politicising” the situation. Why? BEcause he can’t call them liars. The critics are right.

    As I have observed before, Morrison lies often, and almost reflexively when he is under pressure. The #GladysLockdown left him desperate to shift blame away from the LNP, so he dreamed up the AZ handout to under 40s. He had to, because he knows there are no Pfizer stocks to give them.

  20. ”
    Simon Katichsays:
    Thursday, July 1, 2021 at 8:22 am
    Simon (Lipstick) Birmingham confuses accountability with politicisation. As a fully fledged frontline apologist for this ragtag motley crew of a government I can see why he would.
    ”

    He is an ‘apologist’/ spokesman because he has commoner background with public school background (along with PM) along with good communication skills and gentle personality to convey the message that the government is with common people.

  22. Steve777:

    Yes, You are correct re Dominelli, not Dominello My mistake, and how could I have forgotten the Ferdi Bird.

  23. grace pettigrew
    @broomstick33
    ·
    55m
    #RNBreakfast Border Force Commissioner says in one week recently 775 foreign nationals entered Australia … were they vaccinated, and if not, why not?

    I’m probably one of those who had no idea that our “closed borders” are so porous. Morrison’s excuses for not bringing home Aussies stranded abroad are ringing very hollow now. It’s very similar to his unfeeling attitude to refugees (yes, I know it’s not quite the same).

  24. Ignoring the scandalous tweet, Professor Coatsworth point is one that will have to be addressed at some stage. What rate of risk of death is tolerable going forward?

  28. Shellbell @ #74 Thursday, July 1st, 2021 – 8:41 am

    Ignoring the scandalous tweet, Professor Coatsworth point is one that will have to be addressed at some stage. What rate of risk of death is tolerable going forward?

    The whole point is that we should never AIM for a number of deaths greater than zero. Once you do you open up a pathway for all sorts of horrible decision making.

  29. BK

    You have spoilt us with your ever reliable dawn patrol which is always appreciated.

    Sorry for all your efforts being in vain today.

    Hope the rest of the days goes well for you.

    Cheers.

  30. This is the first Mini Me Dawn Patrol. I’ll be back later with some more. 🙂

    The appointment of a senior army officer to the head of Australia’s COVID-19 vaccination program was straight out of the Operation Sovereign Borders playbook.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-scott-morrison-brought-in-the-army-to-wargame-the-pandemic-response-20210630-p585jk.html#comments

    The nation’s peak medical group has slammed political leaders for fuelling confusion over the vaccine rollout after Prime Minister Scott Morrison stunned experts by offering legal help to doctors to give the AstraZeneca vaccine to people under 40.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mangled-the-message-doctors-say-political-leaders-are-driving-vaccine-fears-20210630-p585p6.html

    Former security analyst turned federal Labor MP Peter Khalil has joined a group of Australian politicians directly lobbying the United States to drop an appeal over a British court’s ruling against the extradition of the WikiLeaks co-founder Julian Assange.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australian-mps-call-on-us-president-biden-to-drop-charges-against-assange-20210629-p585a1.html

    Gladys Berejiklian and NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet boasted how well they had done tackling Covid-19 and keeping the economy open when they handed down the NSW Budget a couple of weeks ago. Now, not so much:
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/seven-days-that-shook-nsw-from-its-pandemic-pedestal-20210630-p585nw.html

    An explosion of COVID-19 has forced Sydney into a two-week lockdown with the rest of the state on high alert for further transmission as health experts warned it could take longer than a fortnight to bring the highly contagious outbreak under control.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/the-horse-has-bolted-experts-warn-two-week-lockdown-may-not-be-enough-20210626-p584ja.html

    The NSW business rescue package, which will cost the state hundreds of millions of dollars, includes grants between $5000 and $10,000 for small businesses and payroll tax deferral for all employers.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/rescue-package-for-nsw-businesses-to-cost-the-state-hundreds-of-millions-20210629-p5858f.html

    Here’s the story nath was salivating over last night:

    Victorian Labor is split over the prospect of its party boss returning from maternity leave because of her association with former powerbroker Adem Somyurek and her relationship with a Nationals staffer.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-in-a-quandary-over-party-boss-return-from-maternity-leave-20210629-p585b1.html

    Senior Andrews government minister Martin Pakula’s seat in Melbourne’s south-eastern suburbs will be abolished for next year’s state election if recommendations of the independent Electoral Boundaries Commission are accepted.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/senior-state-government-minister-s-seat-set-to-be-abolished-for-next-election-20210630-p585h5.html

    Victoria will join a growing list of jurisdictions in the world to decriminalise the sex industry if state MPs adopt recommendations aimed at safeguarding workers and reducing stigma.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/victoria/andrews-government-looks-to-decriminalise-sex-work-20210624-p5840w.html

    Queensland will run out of Pfizer vaccinations within days, with a request for more stock from the federal government rejected.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/queensland/queensland-to-run-out-of-pfizer-vaccines-within-days-20210630-p585j8.html

    Sweeping changes have been recommended to overhaul Queensland’s corruption watchdog amid concerns it has turned its back on Fitzgerald inquiry reforms and become too stacked with lawyers.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/queensland/report-says-ccc-too-full-of-lawyers-goes-against-fitzgerald-report-20210630-p585ni.html

    In WA, whether the lockdown was needed or contact tracers were able to handle the situation without it will be dissected in retrospect on the other side of this short, sharp response.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/western-australia/three-lockdowns-in-six-months-does-the-wa-government-trust-its-own-system-20210628-p584z2.html

    In the face of escalating trade and diplomatic tensions between Beijing and Australia, WA’s Japanese consul general Toru Suzuki stressed his home nation was one of Australia’s earliest – and still one of WA’s most important – trade partners, offering stability and certainty.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/western-australia/you-can-count-on-us-wa-consul-general-spruiks-japanese-relationship-as-china-tensions-grow-20210618-p582by.html

    Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has wrongly claimed that the federal government was planning to establish mass vaccination centres to administer AstraZeneca vaccines to under 40s.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/qld-premier-falsely-claims-pm-planned-mass-vaccination-centres-for-under-40s-to-get-astrazeneca-20210630-p585qj.html

    Ding dong, it’s on between Karen Andrews and Anna P.:
    Home Affairs Minister Karen Andrews (has) countered that the Palaszczuk government pushed to allow people involved in film and television or sport to enter the state.

    “But when they have their own failure that they can’t manage, they’re very quick to jump up and down, try and blame the Commonwealth government, and then demand that borders be shut down or caps be reduced,” she said.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/queensland/qld-premier-s-tokyo-trip-at-odds-with-miles-blast-at-travellers-20210630-p585ls.html

  31. Thousands enter Australia for ‘holidays and business’ as wait drags for stranded locals

    More than 10,000 travellers entered Australia to visit friends, go on holiday or for business trips in April, putting pressure on the country’s hotel quarantine system while 34,000 citizens remain stranded overseas wanting to come home.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/thousands-enter-australia-for-holidays-and-business-as-wait-drags-for-stranded-locals-20210630-p585pd.html

  32. ajm

    Sure but when we max out on vaccinating those who want to be vaccinated and open the risk of disease spread through more international arrivals, the toleration really begins.

    That is what is happening in Europe and the US at the moment.

    The jolting for us is the death free environment we enjoy presently save as to two clotting incidents.

  33. ”
    sprocket_says:
    Thursday, July 1, 2021 at 7:58 am
    Victor Dominello is in the ‘moderate’ faction of the NSW Liberal Party, a protege of Michael Photios.

    And despite being from a used car sales family, I have to fact check the normally well researched and accurate C@t, the ‘Up the Windsor Road from Baulkalm Hills’ jingle was for Tony Packard Holden.
    ”

    He represents one of the seats (Drummoyne) that NSW Labor needs to win to win government in NSW.

  34. mundo
    You will also be shocked at this headline in the Herald Sun’s Opinion section.

    Aussies let down by bloody hopeless feds

    You had to be quick though, soon off the “front page” and normal transmission resumed , replaced by Andrew Blot’s

    Anti-white racism tearing through Australia

    I expect the first journo will have been sent to a re-education camp by now.

  37. An earlier comment here mentioned that the newscorp/ LNP alliance has launched into Qld. Premier for basically telling the truth. Surprise Surprise surprise. Anyway she is three years away from an election scomos day coming much sooner and nobody reads the rubbish in the Murdochcracy anymore.

  38. Donald Rumsfeld, the architect of second Iraq war and quote ‘Known Knowns, Known Unknowns, Unknown Knowns and Unknown Unknowns’ died at the age of 88 surrounded by his family.

    He never gave that opportunity to hundreds of thousands of Iraqis when they died.

  41. poroti @ #80 Thursday, July 1st, 2021 – 8:53 am

    mundo
    You will also be shocked at this headline in the Herald Sun’s Opinion section.

    Aussies let down by bloody hopeless feds

    You had to be quick though, soon off the “front page” and normal transmission resumed , replaced by Andrew Blot’s

    Anti-white racism tearing through Australia

    I expect the first journo will have been sent to a re-education camp by now.

    Wonder if they’ve pulled the front page of the West Australian yet which shows a caricature of a smiling Scovid looking through the ‘O’ in the word ‘chaos’.

  42. Morrison is and has always been a charlatan.

    And seriously the NSW police went at friendlyjordies recently. And yet the daily tele thinks it’s okay to go for the limo driver.

    Reprehensible stuff.

    Where is bloody Labor on this.

  45. Cartoon Corner – Please feel free to add:
    Cathy Wilcox:

    David Rowe:

    Christopher Downes:

    Fiona Katauskas:

    Glen Le Lievre:

    David Pope:

    Johannes Leak:

    From the UK:





    From the USA:









  46. Shellbell says:
    Thursday, July 1, 2021 at 8:37 am

    Is the government gonna pay it’s health workers who don’t have private transport ?

    I think the fuck not.

  47. Victoria reporting another good day on the covid front. Have to say though I feel somewhat like this journo. Lol.

    Sharnelle Vella
    @SharnelleVella
    ·
    13h
    What about Vic? We are laying low sis. One new kappa case in quarantine linked to Epping Hospital. 95% of the virgin flight are negative. All of our current restrictions will be held for the next seven days. Act cool, don’t break anything, don’t make eye contact.

  48. p
    Hole in one category rorting? Being rich is no handicap to accepting Morrison’s ‘piss away’ theory of looting the treasury.

  49. ”
    mundosays:
    Thursday, July 1, 2021 at 8:44 am
    It’s official.
    Chanel 7 Sunrise program calls vaccine rollout a ………..(drum roll)………
    DEBACLE!

    ”

    Will Stokes now be comfortable with ALP in federal government?

  50. mundo
    I shall check the deadwood version on my way to work. They have been keen on giving Gladys some kicks over the last few days.

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