Tasmanian election live

Live coverage of the count for the Tasmanian state election.

Click here for full display of latest results.

Sunday night

All the results from the pre-poll centres are now in, and there were further votes added to the count today from mobile polling and (I think) some more postal votes. These haven’t changed the picture too radically, including in all-important Clark, where the Liberals’ position has improved about as much as had been anticipated given the usual form of late counting. Kevin Bonham, whose practised eye for Hare-Clark is such that his assessments undoubtedly count for more than my own, has information from scrutineers suggesting the rate of preference leakage to independents is perhaps high enough to make the Liberals uncomfortable. The view seems to be that the Liberals will probably win their decisive second seat, but not by much. Another point to be noted from Bonham’s analysis is that he is not ruling out Roger Jaensch being the winner of the third Liberal seat in Braddon, despite being on 7.0% compared with 9.0% for Adam Brooks and 8.9% for Felix Ellis. This is presumably because the large surplus from Jeremy Rockliff’s 27.4% vote share might be expected to favour other incumbents.

End of night summary

There will be some subtantial progress in counting today, with the Tasmanian Electoral Commission having scheduled half the pre-poll booth counts to be conducted last night with the other half to follow today. My live results facility will, touch wood, continue ticking over as new results are added through the day — it remains the only place where you can find booth results (to say nothing of booth results maps).

The question of whether the Liberals win a majority comes down to whether they can hold their second seat in Clark, since they have retained their three seats in Bass, Braddon and Lyons and their two in Franklin. The threat comes not from Labor, who had a dismal result in the electorate, or the Greens, who did well but not well enough to be in contention for a second seat, but from independents Kristie Johnston and Sue Hickey, one of whom is assured of becoming the first independent elected since the regime of five-seat electorates was introduced in 1998 — more likely Johnston, who leads her by 11.4% to 9.9%.

The three clear winners are Elisa Archer for the Liberals, Ella Haddad for Labor and Cassy O’Connor for the Greens; the other two will either go one Liberal and one independent or, on the minority government scenario, both independent. That seems unlikely but not impossible: Kevin Bonham lays out how the preference distribution might unfold here. Madeleine Ogilvie and Simon Behrakis are in contention for the probable second Liberal seat.

The result in Bass looks like three Liberal and two Labor, although there seems an outside chance of a seat for the Greens at Labor’s expense. The three incumbent Liberals, Peter Gutwein, Michael Ferguson and Sarah Courtney, will all be re-elected, as will Labor’s Michelle O’Byrne; Janie Finlay will win the second Labor seat at the expense of incumbent Jennifer Houston, unless it instead goes to Greens candidate Jack Davenport.

Braddon looks like a status quo result of three Liberal and two Labor (such is the reckoning of Kevin Bonham, to whose wisdom I defer), despite earlier suggestions that independent Craig Garland might win a seat at the expense of a second Labor candidate with the help of Greens and Shooters preferences. It appears that three Liberals will be incumbents Jeremy Rockliff and Felix Ellis and, remarkably, Adam Brooks, who looks set to carry off his comeback bid by defeating incumbent Roger Jaensch, despite a horror end to his campaign. The two Labor incumbents, Shane Broad and Anita Dow, are running close and it is not clear who would have fallen victim in the apparently unlikely scenario that Labor was reduced to a single seat.

Franklin is clearly a status quo result of two Liberal (incumbents Jacquie Petrusma and Nic Street), two Labor (Dean Winter scoring highest after initially being denied preselection, reducing David O’Byrne to second place) and one Greens (Rosalie Woodruff re-elected). Lyons will be unchanged in having three Liberal and two Labor members, and perhaps also in the candidates elected: incumbents Guy Barnett, Mark Shelton and John Tucker will win the three Liberal seats, Rebecca White will obviously win a Labor seat, and incumbent Jen Butler will most likely win the other.

Election night commentary

11.33pm. 3751 postals are in from Clark: they are very strong for Sue Hickey, who polled 15.2% compared with 9.1% of the ordinary vote, which might have meant trouble for the Liberals if they hadn’t held up well too. The Liberals have 38.6% of the postals batch compared with 30.2% of the ordinary vote, which is much the same difference between the two as in 2018.

11.18pm. The big Launceston pre-poll booth, accounting for 10,211 votes, has reported in Bass, and once again its swings are well in line with those of the ordinary votes, and thus add no further clarity to the question of whether this will be a 3-2 or a 3-1-1 result, though the view seems to be the former is more likely.

11.12pm. As Antony Green has just related on the ABC, the first pre-poll booth is in from Clark, namely the 5174 votes of the Hobart booth, and both of us agree that it changes little, with the swings being well in line with the election day votes (a bit less good for the Greens).

11.07pm. 2930 postals have been added in Braddon, and they’ve pulled Craig Garland back from 0.40 quotas (which at least was where he was last time I made note) to 0.36, reducing his chances of riding home over the second Labor candidate. The Granton pre-poll booth from Lyons is also in, but that was never going to change anything given the clarity of the 3-2 result there.

10.23pm. I’m no longer projecting the Greens will outpoll Labor in Clark, although they remain ahead on the raw vote and there clearly won’t be much in it.

10.18pm. The first two pre-poll results are in, from Kingston in Franklin and Devonport in Braddon. I’m reading little difference from the election day swing in Devonport but a worse result for the Liberals from Kingston — however, I’m not hugely confident here, because changes in pre-poll booth locations make swings hard to calculate.

9.45pm. Kevin Bonham on Twitter: “Some people are badly underestimating the Liberal position in Clark and the difficulty of 2 candidates overtaking them”.

9.38pm. State political journalist Alex Johnston says this on Twitter: “Not much upper house confidence from the Liberal camp. One astute judge predicting Will Smith and Craig Farrell victories”, which is to say Labor has retained Derwent and an independent may yet squeeze out the Liberal in Windermere. Will Smith is far the best performing of three Windermere independents; the scenario envisions preferences from the other two pushing him ahead of Labor, and preferences from Labor putting him ahead of the Liberals. The first part of this equation seems to me far from a done deal, but Johnston’s source may have meaningful intelligence on preference flows.

9.34pm. Antony now downplaying the possibility of 3-1-1 (i.e. the Greens poaching a seat from Labor) in Bass.

9.29pm. Antony Green just made a significant call in noting that Sue Hickey is fading in Clark, reducing the possibility of a second independent win at the expense of a second Liberal, which is the scenario that threatened to cost the government its majority.

9.21pm. The election day results are mostly in — entirely so in Braddon and Franklin — and what remains won’t change the picture much. We are presently in the now familiar trough in Australian election nights between the election day booths wrapping up and hearing from the pre-poll centres, which receive far more votes and take much longer to report.

9.12pm. The Greens have crept up on me in Bass: I’m projecting 0.57 quotas for them and Labor are only on 1.55, so this would seem a strong chance of a 3-1-1 rather than 3-2, capping a better than expected (by me at least) result for the Greens.

8.30pm. To reiterate the general picture: for as long as it’s unclear the Liberals will retain a second seat in Clark, it will be unclear they will get to a majority. While I’m projecting them to get close enough to a second quota to do that quite comfortably, I’m doing so entirely on the basis of the election day vote. So we’ll have a particularly exciting time waiting on the pre-poll centres, which I assume will be in later in the evening. Sorceror43 on Twitter points out that Labor has done well on pre-poll and postal votes in the upper house seat of Derwent, which is within the electorate, which could prove a worry for the Liberals.

8.29pm. The Liberals have their existing three seats in the bag, but with almost all ordinary polling booths in, it’s an interesting race for the fifth seat in Braddon between Labor’s second candidate (now looking like Anita Dow, who has fallen behind Shane Broad) and Craig Garland: I’m projecting 1.56 quotas for Labor with Craig Garland on 0.40, and the potential for Garland to snowball with preferences from the Greens (0.33 quotas) and Shooters (0.24 quotas), being unusually well placed to attract support from the both.

8.23pm. Labor are actually running a fairly distant third in Clark behind the Greens, having clearly bled a lot of voters to the two independents, who are very closely matched at 10.1% for Kristie Johnston and 9.7% for Sue Hickey. I’d say it was pretty clear that Liberal, Labor, the Greens and at least one independent will win, and that it’s possible the remaining seat will go to a second independent. I would think it would quite a bit more likely though that it will go to a second Liberal, given they aren’t shy of two quotas. However, we have no results from the pre-poll centres, and they could well shake things up a bit.

8.19pm. Interesting to compare my booth results maps for the last election (see the bottom of the page) and this one — more green dots this time owing to the near collapse in the Labor vote in this electorate.

8.15pm. If you’re enjoying my live results pages, which I feel you should be, you may care to consider a donation through the “become a supporter” button at the top of the page.

8.12pm. All told, the swings are pretty small — Liberal down very slightly and a bit of movement from the Labor to the Greens, leaving the former looking distinctly under-nourished.

8.11pm. Intra-party contests of note: Labor’s Janie Finlay to depose Jennifer Houston in Bass; resilient Liberal candidate Adam Brooks likely to unseat Roger Jaensch for the third Liberal seat in Braddon; Labor’s Dean Winter to defeat Alison Standen in Franklin; hard to say who will win Labor’s second seat in Lyons out of incumbent Jen Butler and non-incumbents Janet Lambert and Edwin Batt, but since this will be entirely determined by Rebecca White’s preferences, I would guess they will decisively favour her fellow incumbent.

8.02pm. The consensus seems to be that we’ve got status quo results in Bass, Braddon, Lyons and Franklin, and a question mark over Clark that makes the loss of a Liberal seat at least a theoretical possibility, though one that’s hard to square with my present projection of them getting 1.96 quotas.

7.59pm. I noted before that the early results looked bad for Labor in the upper house seat of Derwent, but they don’t now. However, the Liberals remain in front in Windermere.

7.54pm. Dean Winter leading the Labor ticket in Franklin, ahead even of mooted leadership contender David O’Byrne, which should make a few union leaders feel a bit stupid. Incumbent Alison Standen facing defeat.

7.53pm. Antony reckons it’s at least possible that Craig Garland could win a seat in Braddon, but he’d be doing it at the expense of Labor’s second rather than the Liberals’ third. It would require a strong flow of Greens preferences, and would also be an unprecedented achievement for an ungrouped candidate.

7.50pm. Franklin, I think it’s safe to say, is a status quo 2-2-1, with the Greens winning a lot more easily than they did last time.

7.48pm. Over 25% in now from Braddon — my assessment that they might win four seats has been based on the fact that there’s little swing and they nearly did it last time, but my quota projections make it look very unlikely, so I guess they did well out of preferences last time from Lambie and whoever else.

7.44pm. Clark remains the zone of uncertainty, with a slower count and a very difficult to call final seat. It remains possible that the Liberals will fall to one and lose their majority (though it’s also possible that a fourth seat in Braddon would save it).

7.39pm. So the big picture seems to be that the Liberals are on track for a majority, Labor aren’t doing great, and the Greens are perhaps doing a little better than I’d figured, though without being on track to build on their existing two seats.

7.35pm. Strong early showing for the two independents in Clark holding up with 6% counted — but Labor’s hope that this might upset the Liberal applecart by reducing them to a minority aren’t being borne out, because the Liberal vote is holding up quite a bit better than Labor’s, and the Greens are holding firm as well. Not at all sure how to read this, as I’ve no idea how preferences will flow between and among the major parties and independents.

7.33pm. Approaching 10% counted in Bass, looking most likely to be a status quo result of three Liberal and two Labor, but with Janie Finlay taking Labor’s second seat from Jennifer Houston.

7.31pm. Progress in the Braddon and Lyons counts, both over 15% counted now. Both are looking status quo overall, so I’ll stick my neck out and call Lyons as three Liberal two Labor, while the Liberals can continue to hope for 4-1 rather than 3-2 in Braddon.

7.24pm. The Liberals have early leads in both upper house seats, particularly Windermere, but I’m making no effort at booth-matching here — perhaps Sandy Bay Beach is dominating the early result in Derwent.

7.22pm. A bit of a surge in the Lyons count, which is the first to top 10%. It looks like a status quo result of three Liberal, two Labor — all three Liberal incumbents returned, Rebecca White inevitably dominating the Labor ticket, open race for a second Labor seat.

7.18pm. The count in Braddon is now approaching 10%, and it suggest a similar result to 2018 when the Liberals came close to winning four seats. Despite everything, Adam Brooks is looking competitive or better even if the Liberals can only manage three seats; the two Labor incumbents are closely matched, making it unclear who would lose if the Liberals indeed made it to four.

7.16pm. The first booth from Clark has the two independents is Sandy Bay Beach, which is a blue-ribbon booth — the two key independents have around 20% of the vote between them.

7.10pm. So, to offer my first piece of semi-meaningful analysis: early days, but swings to the Liberals in the two northern electorates, at least leaving open the possibility of four seats in one or the other, which would solve any problems for them elsewhere. Lyons looks status quo three Liberal two Labor; too early in Franklin, no numbers yet from Clark.

7.07pm. Spent the last ten minutes ironing out bugs — hopeful/confident that we’re on track now.

6.58pm. Okay, I’ve uncovered a problem — some of my results were TEC test data, so disregard the last few updates which I’ve now deleted.

6.48pm. My results facility seems to be running far ahead of the online systems of the ABC and the TEC, which is good in one way, but it does mean I’m not able to get the reassurance that I want that my numbers are as they should be. Everything seems to be functioning though, except for the time stamps on the electorate results pages.

6.45pm. Very early days, but what we have so far points to a fairly solid swing against the Liberals — except in Braddon.

6.38pm. Results starting to come through — after clearing a roadblock, I think my results facility is doing its job.

6.15pm. Not sure exactly when we can expect to see the first results, but they will presumably come in relatively slowly due to the complexities involved in counting ballot papers that feature at least 20 candidates grouped by party.

6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of Tasmanian state election count, for which polls have just closed. The charts above are the summary highlights from my live election results facility, which I’m reasonably confident is going to work, and which can be viewed in all its glory through the link at the very top. It includes total progress results by candidate, projected quotas by party, booth results by party in which you can tab through vote totals, percentages and swings and, in a new innovation, a map-based display of booth results.

I’m not venturing to make projections of seat results, but the projected quotas you can see on both the main page and through a bar chart on the pages individually should hopefully give those who know their way around Hare-Clark a clear idea of where things are headed. These results are based on booth-matching of party vote totals from the current election with 2018. The seat results pages also include swings by candidate for those who have contested consecutive elections, but these are not booth-matched — they simply compare their progress results with their final results from 2018.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

176 comments on “Tasmanian election live”

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  1. Cracking speech from O’Connor. Loved it. Would have been fine for her to keep going all night!

    Now this Lib dunce on the panel is having a massive sook because a Green gave a speech.

  2. “The WA Libs will bounce back. The Greens will continue to bounce along the bottom.”

    At this rate the Tassie Greens will be in government again before the WA Libs are!

    They’re in a great spot now to form part of the next government. Labor will need to do much better for that to occur though, but I think they will. Libs barely got over the line in a COVID election. Hardly a WA style landslide.

  3. I see that we’ve all now moved on from the psephological part of the evening into the usual partisan shit stirring, gloating, trolling, blame-shifting and general frothing at the mouth more typical of the normal quality of debate around these here parts. I therefore bid you all a pleasant evening. Until next election, have at it!

  4. Yes, get stuck into him McKim! Shame on the Libs. Can’t handle a powerful speech from a powerful woman. What a sook.

  5. That speech reminded me of the Greens of Franklin Dam and Gay Law Reform days.

    The odds were worse then than today.

    It’s going to be a difficult four years for the Liberals.
    Labor will have been cheering the Gutwein has no mandate due to his secret deal line of the speech.

  6. @Bird of paradox, fair point about SFF. Yep, I can now see a lot of that getting burried in what’s left of the Lib’s 4th quota, which does put the Greens in a stronger position than I had assumed. Cheers.

    Having said that, SFF preferences don’t necessarily flow as strongly to the conservatives as one might imagine, the ALP can get a fair bite. Probably something to do with shooters often being of a more working-class bent. I guess we shall indeed need to wait and see.

    Anyhow, off to bed.

  7. Bird of paradoxsays:
    Saturday, May 1, 2021 at 10:39 pm
    Not all of us, AF. It’s only 8.30 where I am, so I’m not drunk yet.

    Gotta love that, hope you’re working on it Bird.

    I’m going well given the head start.

  8. The usual partisans come and say Libs did not get COVID bounce. Gutwein had 12 seats going into the election and likely won majority of seats for a 3rd straight election in a reliably Labor state with more than 20 % more votes. If not for Hare-Clark it would have been a landslide victory for Libs and there are no National party to hinder them.

  9. Who’s the Tory spiv on the ABC coverage? Hasn’t he got some used cars to sell somewhere, rather than boring the shit out of me?

  10. “Rational Leftistsays:
    Saturday, May 1, 2021 at 10:54 pm
    So what’s happening with White as leader? Anything been said?”

    I guess Once She goes on maternity leave somebody else takes over Labor leadership.

  11. The usual partisans come and say Libs did not get COVID bounce.

    If I were a Liberal, I’d want that to be the take-away. That the result was business as usual i.e. from general good governance, not the result of a temporary bubble.

  12. I guess Once She goes on maternity leave somebody else takes over Labor leadership.

    Yeah, I cannot honestly see her leading the party at the next election. You don’t lose two elections in a row without facing some serious pressure to step down.

    Maybe it’s also a matter of waiting until the shape of the caucus has been finalised as well.

  13. One thing we can confidently say about this result: it disproves the contention that supporting pokies is helpful for Labor.

  14. Clem,
    “Hasn’t he got some used cars to sell somewhere, ”
    Had they given that pompous upstart a run before the election the result would’ve been different!

  15. That Hobart pre-poll is painful for Labor. 16%, more than 10% behind the Greens.

    Greens are actually down a bit as a percentage, although that’s probably meaningless since there’s so many more votes than 2018.

  16. Went to the tally room tonight: the other main choice for a night out was a Tones and I concert, and I’m far too old. (Always was, I suspect.)

    It was fun watching the esteemed Antony bouncing around in the flesh, along with the appealingly bobbed ABC interviewer lady.

    As ever,Rebecca White came across as graceful and gorgeous. But Cassie O’Connor’s marathon speech was an embarrassment, pissing off all of the room but the Greens partisans.

    We’d moved on by the time Gutwein spoke, but I’ve seen him before.
    Gutwein is Gutwein: a pretty slick operator who is able to give an impression of being a pretty reasonable bloke. Arguably the most impressive Liberal leader in the country.

  17. RL
    I saw one successful candidate say that White had his full and strong support, so I guess she’ll resign tomorrow afternoon

  18. meher babasays:
    Saturday, May 1, 2021 at 11:24 pm

    Oh you’re so happy and effusive.

    Liberals got up by the barest of margins.

    Your gushing praise of that result indicates where your loyalties lie.

    Enjoy, because the next federal election is going to bring a completely different result!

  19. Comparing PV Tas vs WA:
    TAS: ALP 28.5 Lib 48.5 Green 12.7
    WA : Lib 21.2 Nat 4 ALP 59.9 Green 6.9

    Comparing my foot to my other foot in Clark.*

    50/50

    * Glenorchy for the psephologists.

  20. All my post-count threads are up now. At party level it’s really only Clark I see as being in any doubt and the question there is whether both independents can overtake whoever is the final Liberal off left preferences and leakage from the Liberal ticket. This seems unlikely at the moment but on my initial projection attempt it may be very close.

    Clark postcount thread here: http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/05/2021-tasmanian-postcount-lyons.html , others linked via my main page and the sidebar.

    Some very interesting candidate battles especially Braddon (Brooks).

  21. Unlike the other state/territory and N.Z governments , where the oppositions were thrashed

    For being a government which was one of the 2 lib governments which had health over economy , not an over all good result struggling to retain a majority .

  22. Ven @ #111 Saturday, May 1st, 2021 – 10:55 pm

    The usual partisans come and say Libs did not get COVID bounce. Gutwein had 12 seats going into the election and likely won majority of seats for a 3rd straight election in a reliably Labor state with more than 20 % more votes. If not for Hare-Clark it would have been a landslide victory for Libs and there are no National party to hinder them.

    ???

    It wasn’t only me that said there was no Covid bounce for Gutwein. It was the expert commentators on the ABC as well! Sheesh!

    You might try and craft Tasmania as ‘a reliably Labor state’ but the last federal election and 3 state elections don’t bear that biased assessment out.

    There was also the rather major problem of Labor falling in a hole at the beginning of the campaign that they had to spend most of the campaign climbing out of, so that badly affected their vote.

    Not to mention the Liberals cynically calling the election a year early to get a Covid bounce, if indeed they did get one!

    But hey, let’s rag on ‘the usual partisans’ instead, as if that’s some sort of crime against Tasmanian humanity to support your team. 🙄

  23. I’m with Scott, it was actually a devastating result for the Tasmanian Liberals – that’s very clear.

    The Labor PV of 28.4% was all in all sensational!

    How ironic Nedlands in blue blood Perth is now more Labor voting than working class Launceston!

  24. Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, May 2, 2021 at 6:35 am
    I’m with Scott, it was actually a devastating result for the Tasmanian Liberals – that’s very clear.

    The Labor PV of 28.4% was all in all sensational!
    ————–
    Labor were never a chance to get into majority government

    The liberal party had once again the media backing them and

    with the problems Labor were having ,

    Its a not a good result that the liberal government did not get a majority comfortably

  25. It would be no surprise if the Lib premier lied about resigning that he would not be governing in a minority government

    He would just be following the federal liberal party leader as a compulsive liar

  26. Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, May 2, 2021 at 7:04 am
    is no good that Labor is no good scott not good.
    ————————————

    ?
    state/territory
    5 out of 8 says otherwise

  27. Labor in Tassie has major problems, largely caused by the hard left-dominated party machine. The electorate knows this, which is why Dean Winter received a resounding personal vote in Franklin and, to some extent, also explains the success of Janey Finlay in Bass (although I believe the incumbent she unseated, Jenny Houston, has had her political career somewhat hampered by health issues).

    What next? Presumably Bec White will step down. David O’Byrne – quite an effective politician but a machine man to his bootstraps – seems her most likely successor. The party might do better to jump straight to Winter or perhaps Haddad, but that’s unlikely. A northerner would be an even better idea, but there’s no strong Labor talent up there.

    It’s looking tough for Labor. COVID was always going to make it hard for them but there really was no excuse for them to lose ground to the Greens.

    As I said last night, shifting their stance on pokies appears to have done them no good whatsoever. They campaigned on old and tired issues: hospital waiting lists and helping the “battlers”. But, apart from long-term welfare recipients – who are rusted on to Labor – Tasmanians don’t feel like they are battlers at the moment: the economy down here is going gangbusters. Left-leaning people who are well off will tend towards the Greens unless they feel Labor offers them something. Public hospital elective surgery (which they don’t want or need) doesn’t cut it.

  28. When Rudd won election in 2007, ALP+Green vote was in mid 50s. Even till Jim Bacon was Premier it was like that. No it is 41%, a loss of 15 % in about 7 years.
    Who was that political commentator name, who was Anastasia P partner? He used to say that Libs have no chance in Tasmania because of combined vote of ALP+Greens was over 55%.

  29. Maybe the journey is labor right to labor left/greens to liberal.

    Some say for instance that Balmain in nsw will ultimately end up a safe liberal seat.

    Perhaps something similar is at play in tassie.

  30. meher baba @ #133 Sunday, May 2nd, 2021 – 7:59 am

    Labor in Tassie has major problems, largely caused by the hard left-dominated party machine. The electorate knows this, which is why Dean Winter received a resounding personal vote in Franklin and, to some extent, also explains the success of Janey Finlay in Bass (although I believe the incumbent she unseated, Jenny Houston, has had her political career somewhat hampered by health issues).

    What next? Presumably Bec White will step down. David O’Byrne – quite an effective politician but a machine man to his bootstraps – seems her most likely successor. The party might do better to jump straight to Winter or perhaps Haddad, but that’s unlikely. A northerner would be an even better idea, but there’s no strong Labor talent up there.

    It’s looking tough for Labor. COVID was always going to make it hard for them but there really was no excuse for them to lose ground to the Greens.

    As I said last night, shifting their stance on pokies appears to have done them no good whatsoever. They campaigned on old and tired issues: hospital waiting lists and helping the “battlers”. But, apart from long-term welfare recipients – who are rusted on to Labor – Tasmanians don’t feel like they are battlers at the moment: the economy down here is going gangbusters. Left-leaning people who are well off will tend towards the Greens unless they feel Labor offers them something. Public hospital elective surgery (which they don’t want or need) doesn’t cut it.

    Already predicted Winter to be the next Labor premier.

  31. “mundosays:
    Sunday, May 2, 2021 at 9:24 am
    Already predicted Winter to be the next Labor premier.”

    In 2029? 🙂

  32. LVT
    So the greens are the DLP of the 2020s. Somewhere non-threatening for the Catholic middle class to rest until they realised their best interests lay with the Liberals. E.g. Tony Abbott

  33. “Lars Von Triersays:
    Sunday, May 2, 2021 at 8:51 am
    Maybe the journey is labor right to labor left/greens to liberal.

    Some say for instance that Balmain in nsw will ultimately end up a safe liberal seat.

    Perhaps something similar is at play in tassie.”

    Didn’t somebody say that if are not a Communist by age of 20, you don’t have a heart and if you are not a conservative by 40 you don’t have a brain? 🙂

  34. davidwh says:
    Sunday, May 2, 2021 at 9:25 am
    Isn’t there a saying “a win’s a win in politics “?
    ———————————-

    Yes , but is it a win for the liberal party leader though , he promised to resign if liberal party loses their majority

  35. Seen a few pissant Libs carping about the Tassie electoral system today at various forums, even though they supposedly ‘won’.
    Imagine how bad losers they would be if that’s as good as it gets from winning.

    Seems they thought they’re entitled to a far better reward from the peasants that make up the voting public. Far too representative of the actual public vote for them.

    The disingenuous carping about not doing minority government and threatening to quit and try and to blackmail the public to give them total control is like the crying baby throwing their toys out of the cot, as Nick McKim rightly pointed out.

    Didn’t somebody say that if are not a Communist by age of 20, you don’t have a heart and if you are not a conservative by 40 you don’t have a brain?

    Often repeated idea or trope that may not be some sort of enduring truth. As it seems the reason that there are not so many old ‘communists’ now is more because of the radical changes in social structure particularly in the post WW2 western world. With the boomer generation at least in the west and to some extent probably other generations in developing countries that have seen massive social change, development and growth of personal wealth.

    Where once political interests were far more class based, now it is more generational.

    Seems the biggest loser from this belief or self-justfication of the oldies in Australia on being ‘conservative’ now, and betting on the Libs being the way to go, appears to be those same oldies being left to rot in understaffed and underfunded old age facilities. Often whilst having their personal wealth skimmed or taken through various dodgy corporations that are donors and mates of the Libs at the same time.

    As previously posted but no doubt ignored, this boomer tory below, himself lays out a pretty good description on the demographic changes and effects that might impact more people’s political interests and voting going forward.

    Once when there was a real working class in western countries there were many older communists and socialists, whole families across generations. For the boomer generations their investment in and benefits from the massive growth in personal wealth seems far more of the motivation.

    Which will probably not turn out to be the same for future generations, particularly as the effects of climate change and depletion of global resources and ecological systems destroy the same dreams or prospective futures of their grandchildren.

    There is simply no physical way that most of the world’s human future generations can live as the boomer generation has. Things will change one way or another.

    The post-war baby boom of 1945-65 produced the biggest and richest generation in British history. David Willetts discusses how these boomers have attained this position at the expense of younger generations.

    Lord Willett’s book “The Pinch – How the Baby Boomers Took Their Children’s Future – And Why They Should Give it Back”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuXzvjBYW8A&ab_channel=TheRoyalInstitution

  36. One is hopeful the Libs are forced into minority government if only to shut them up about the majority or bust rah rah rah nonsense. Personally I have felt Labor following them simply makes them sound innumerate and/or fanciful but presumably focus groups say otherwise.

  37. It’ll be interesting to see whether the next tas election is 2021, or if that’ll be just too shameful and they’ll try to muddle through to 2022.

    I’m still betting 12 to Libs. They’re at 1.88 quota in Clark but much of that won’t transfer to the 2nd lib. Votes will transfer well amongst 4 of the Libs, but not to or from Ogilvie.

    And if they do get 2 in Clarke, good chance it’s Ogilvie anyway.

    So within a month of winning 13 seats, they’ll have one MLA in jail, on the crossbench or resigned, and another MLA on the crossbench.

    And if labor is smart, they’ll vote Ogilvie for speaker and it won’t even take a month for it to fall apart.

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