Last night’s rumours proved to be true: Peter Gutwein has called a Tasmanian election for May 1, almost a year ahead of time. I have a paywalled piece in Crikey laying out my thoughts on the matter.
The upshot is that an early election is understandable from a Liberal perspective owing to the government’s COVID-19 popularity dividend and its historic difficulty in winning elections in Tasmania (never before has it won three in a row); but that there are nonetheless considerable risks involved in an early election, even allowing for the excuse that the government lost its majority when Sue Hickey quit the party on Monday. Such risks are compounded by the fact that the election has been imposed on Labor leader Rebecca White barely more than a month before she is due to give birth, the Liberal Party’s insensitivity towards women being very much the issue du jour.
I would optimistically say that I’m a week away from publishing an election guide, on which I got started when the rumours began to swirl earlier in the week. As always in matters Tasmanian, you could do a lot worse than follow the election analysis of Kevin Bonham.
I think it is Peter Gutwein taking the risk, if Rebecca White sails through it, super women, but given the imploding Liberal party he really had little choice. The Liberals need to win something.
Latest 3 EMRS polls for the Tasmanian state election:
…………………..LIB…………ALP……………GRN
Feb 2021…….52%……….27%…………..14%
Nov 2020…..52%………..25%……………13%
Aug 2020…..54%………..24%……………12%
Interesting trends: Libs trending down, both ALP and Greens trending up……
Will Covid be enough to save the Libs?…..
In relation to Bass, most of those I have spoken with are happy to vote for Gutwein – much to my dismay.
As I was driving home I noticed Liberal corflutes out already.
The legislative council election for Windemere is also listed for 1 May.
The question on everyone’s lips is where will perennial loser Steve Mav run?
I can’t see Braddon changing but I think it will be less dramatic than last time as I doubt the Lambie team will be out in the same force. So 3 Liberals 2 ALP.
Lyon will probably be 3 Lib 2 ALP.
Bass could either be 3 Liberal 2 ALP or 3 Liberal 1 ALP 1 Green
Denison could be interesting or could be boring. 2 Liberals 2 ALP 1 Green but if Hickey has a decent following the second Liberal could be in doubt. I doubt that Ogilvie will win re-election.
Franklin is 2 Liberal 2 ALP 1 Green, but it could be an interesting three corner contest between the Green, second Labor and third Liberal.
So I see it either as Liberal majority or minority government. There is outside chance of a board church coalition of non-Liberals.
Not being Tasmanian, I don’t know much about Gutwein (I’d struggle to point him out in a crowd.) What is his personality like? Does he have “True blue bloke” appeal, similar to Morrison’s appeal in 2019, that worked well in Northern Tasmania?
Rational Leftist – Gutwein presents as a moderate liberal, no strong religious overtones. He doesn’t present as a ‘daggy dad’ but does present as approchable
Gutwein is an old version of Kirkup? Hope he doesn’t lose his seat.
Well put Taz – there isn’t the bs associated with Gutwein that the feds have, he doesn’t indulge in as much marketing
It appears from above comments ALP supporters have given up on forming government in Tas. It appears They have nothing against Gutwein.
Gutwein’s only headwind seems to be that there is a Federal government of the same political persuasion – it might take the edge off his win
All the ALP state and Territory wins the past year have come against the background of an LNP Federal government
In my opinion Gutwein also has headwind from not buckling down to morrison and opening up Tassie borders. Many people are happy with that. There has been minimal adverse publicity reported by the MSM and what was reported appeared to be quickly squashed. Plus Tasssie Labor is rarely mentioned by the MSM. As much as I want a change in state government, I am not optimistic that the rest of Tasmanian voters share my opinion 🙁
@doug – headwinds are Eric Abetz, Susan hickey, jobkeeper ending tomorrow, gutwein calling an early election and timing it around taking advantage of the OL’s pregnancy, tas being generally a labor/greens state, and the general dysfunction of the government, whose first act was being outmanuevered by the opposition in appointing a speaker.
Tailwind is rally ‘round the flag from COVID.
Final seat count will be Libs 11-12, hickey 0-1, labor 10, greens 3. Election will come down to who can make the greens happy, which puts labor in the better position.
Doug@11:28 am
Are you implying that ALP won all the state and Federal elections because of the politics of Federal government and no credit to ALP?
Taz
I agree. Voting intention in Tasmania hasnt changed much since the last state election.
VE@12:25pm
“Timing it around taking advantage of the OL’s pregnancy”
Why is it not a disadvantage to Gutwein when we are having ‘ women’s protests’ all over the country and OL is a woman & pregnant and Ericabetz ( a Tassie senetor) allegedly ‘slut shamed’ a rape victim according to Tassie Speaker (a woman). Isn’t it insensitive of Gutwein to call an election in such conditions?
What I find extraordinary is that Tasmanians (well enough of them at least) keep re-electing someone as unsavoury as Eric Abetz? What trump card does he play within the Tassie Liberal Party that keeps head of the Tasmanian Liberal Senate how to vote ticket time after time? I have no idea if his latest alleged bit of bile is true or false. However, IF it is true, it would be the latest kind of evidence that he needs to be shown the door and let him go roam the pastures or wander in the Tasmanian wilderness.
@ceb, yes, gutwein didn’t think it through. Like Morrison, he’s not capable of considering that treating women poorly might be a bad look
Robert @ #17 Saturday, March 27th, 2021 – 2:19 pm
The only reason he gets back is because of his position on the liberal ticket for above the line voting. His below the line vote is abysmal.
My comment about state & territory wins was that there is some evidence that it is easier to win at a state & territory level if the Government at the federal level is of the opposite political persuasion – it’s only a contributing factor other issues may be more important at the local level as a look at each of the results makes clear – Kevin Bonham has done the analysis on this To be the same party as the federal Government is a disadvantage. https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2020/09/age-and-canberra-are-still-killing.html
Clark is interesting.
Labor can afford to lose 5%pt and still safely elect two. The Liberals are more marginal.
If Liberal voters decamp en masse ro Hickey they may end up with one.
The Greens will be hoping Johnston doesn’t leech away any of their vote. They can’t rely on any Labor preferences as much of this may end up with Johnston. O’Connor has been bitterly feuding with Labor.
Perhaps Labor can dig up a new Bacon to shore up the vote.
Franklin is also interesting. Hodgman had a huge personal vote and was widely perceived as moderate, if not wet. The highest profile Liberal is now Petrusma. And her previous candidacy for one of the many Christian parties is instructive as to her slant.
It’s also good for Labor that Seidel is local, prominent and I think well regarded. He’ll be campaigning ceaselessly in the part of the electorate that’s probably the least Labor friendly.
The Liberals are a sure bet right? Am i missing something? How does a party lose government when they’re polling 15-20% over the next opposition (excluding a dead girl/live boy situation in the next 4 weeks)?
Gareth
In a standard single-member electorate contest the Liberals would be home for all money. But this is Hare-Clark.
If they can pull a 50%+ primary they’ll more then likely be in majority. But there’s the complication of Clark. If Sandy Bay Liberals decamp to Hickey they could lose a seat. This puts them in minority. The Liberals could overcome this with what will surely be a huge personal vote for Gutwein in Bass. But to win four there will require a swing in the order of 10%pt.
Importantly there is no indication in the polling that the Liberals are much changed from 2018. Labor has not fucked COVID anywhere like the Liberals did in WA. Indeed there’s been a powerful unity ticket on managing COVID.
And there’s also the matter of the significant federal drag on the Liberals, who would be hoping any skeletons are well and truly buried.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/03/2021-tasmanian-state-election-guide.html
This is the main page of my guide which acts as a hub for all the side-pages, of which I have written several in the last few days. Haven’t had to blog a snap state election in the past; it’s quite an effort!
A bit less effort for me now with Mike Gaffney re-elected unopposed in Mersey, first such case for 10 years after a cluster of four between 2005-11.