Houses in order

Early federal election talk portends a busy time on the preselection front over the coming months.

Still very quiet on the polling front, but speculation of a federal election later this year has given scribes plenty to work with over the quiet season:

• A report in the Age/Herald concludes the most likely months are October and November, with Liberal Party officials being told to have their act together at least by August. However, it is noted that “the pandemic could derail any possible plan for an early poll”.

• The above report also relates that the Queensland Liberal National Party’s Senate ticket is to be decided by May 1. This presents the Coalition with a difficulty, in that second position is reserved for the Nationals and duly assured for Matt Canavan, leaving Liberal up-and-comers James McGrath and Amanda Stoker in a high-stakes battle for first and third. The loser will at least be able to console themselves with the knowledge that the Coalition has won at least three Senate seats in Queensland at each of the seven elections since 2001.

• Also noted in the report is a fact that escaped my notice amid the excitement of events in the United States — namely, that the Western Australian Liberals finalised their Senate ticket in early November. This occurred at the same time that Ben Small, a logistics manager at Woodside Energy and owner of a bar and restaurant in Bunbury, was chosen to fill the vacancy created by Mathias Cormmann’s retirement. Small will take third position on the ticket behind Michaelia Cash and Dean Smith, both of whom have gone up a notch in Cormann’s absence. Smith had to overcome a bid by religious conservatives to dump him in favour of Albert Jacob, mayor of Joondalup and former state member for Ocean Reef. Peter Law of The West Australian reported the move was “perceived by some within the party as retribution for the eight-year Senator’s very public campaign for marriage equality in 2017”.

• There are a whole bunch of redistribution processes in train at the moment. At federal level, draft boundaries for Victoria and Western Australia are due to be published by the end of March, respectively to be finalised on July 26 and August 2. The redistributions will increase Victoria’s representation from 38 seats to 39, and reduce Western Australia’s from 16 to 15. A state redistribution process also began in Victoria last month, with draft boundaries due at the end of June and final boundaries to be published on October 14. In New South Wales, submissions are being weighed up to draft boundaries that were published in November, and while no date is set for their finalisation, it could roughly be guessed that it will happen in March or April.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,068 comments on “Houses in order”

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  2. Oakeshott Country @ #2699 Sunday, January 31st, 2021 – 2:41 pm

    C@t has a Turtle Bowen moment.

    (As I used to say on this blog some years ago, I allowed my membership to lapse when the Obeid issues were exposed at ICAC [if you lay down with dogs, you get up with fleas] and Labor lost the automatic privilege of my vote, the night that Shorten used his faction to screw Gillard.

    What a nasty piece of excrement you are. ‘A Turtle Bowen moment’!?! What the hell is that other than a nasty slur you’ve cooked up in your cesspit of a mind?

    So you admit you now vote Liberal? Obviously their corruption, and abuse of taxpayers’ money as if it were their own doesn’t bother you as much. Nor does Morrison using his Pentecostal faction to screw Turnbull.

    You’re a hypocrite, Oakeshott Country, and that’s worse than anything you could call me, or Kristina Keneally.

  4. Nicholas @ #2709 Sunday, January 31st, 2021 – 3:02 pm

    So true.

    The real problem doesn’t lie with the personnel at the top of the ALP — it’s the factional balance inside the party. Labor Right claims to be in the business of building an electable party. In practice, the faction’s tired mix of social conservatism and neoliberal economics has never inspired the electorate, but its leaders don’t really care as long as they control the ALP itself.

    This will only change if the ALP’s left wing can find leaders with the courage to break up the corrupt, gerrymandered regime that controls the party, and decisively repudiate a commitment to neoliberalism that dates back to the age of Bob Hawke and Paul Keating. Until that happens, the only real leadership choice will be one between disappointment and despair.

    https://jacobinmag.com/2021/01/albanese-australian-labor-party-alp?fbclid=IwAR2B_QxAennyoEj87cG_kEhp773BwwKAGneYATxj0Pcbyer4ewMsthZvERQ

    A mag of the disgruntled Lunar Left, quoted by a Lunar Left supporter. Next.

    Hey, Nicholas, how’s Tara Reade going? Still a supporter and a believer? 🙂

  7. Oakeshott Country:

    Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 2:26 pm

    So, you resort to the use of a sexist Tory Party ad to denigrate KK. Haven’t you got something more useful to do like, say, counting bagels(?).

    By the way, my paternal grandmother was born under Robert Gascoyne-Cecil, 3rd Marquess of Salisbury, and outlived Churchill by five years.

  8. Labor lost the automatic privilege of my vote, the night that Shorten used his faction to screw Gillard

    That was the moment I set myself free.

  9. It was earlier for me – when Eddie Obeid became de facto boss of the NSW ALP.

    As they say, when injustice becomes law resistance becomes a duty.

  10. C@t
    Turtle famously told people that if they did not like his policies, they could vote for someone else. Just as you told me to do

  11. Nicholas @ #2748 Sunday, January 31st, 2021 – 3:02 pm

    So true.

    The real problem doesn’t lie with the personnel at the top of the ALP — it’s the factional balance inside the party. Labor Right claims to be in the business of building an electable party. In practice, the faction’s tired mix of social conservatism and neoliberal economics has never inspired the electorate, but its leaders don’t really care as long as they control the ALP itself.

    This will only change if the ALP’s left wing can find leaders with the courage to break up the corrupt, gerrymandered regime that controls the party, and decisively repudiate a commitment to neoliberalism that dates back to the age of Bob Hawke and Paul Keating. Until that happens, the only real leadership choice will be one between disappointment and despair.

    https://jacobinmag.com/2021/01/albanese-australian-labor-party-alp?fbclid=IwAR2B_QxAennyoEj87cG_kEhp773BwwKAGneYATxj0Pcbyer4ewMsthZvERQ

    Indeed.

  13. Weren’t you concerned when John Newman was assassinated during a pre-selection fight? That was the moment I realised we were no longer in Kansas (Although I was first concerned when Peter Baldwin came within a few kicks of being murdered but at least then Left activists invaded Sussex St to demand reform)

  14. OC yes that was a seminal moment. At the time it was presented as Phuong Ngo acting alone.

    He’s never said more about his involvement (he had arranged to be OS at the time and the actual shooter subsequently got whacked)- but he must be nearing the end of his sentence? Maybe he could run for Cabramatta after all?

    He’s probably younger than Nick Lalich anyway.

  16. Any word when the odious and very elderly Kevin Andrews has retained his preselection for Menzies? Assume it is all happening now, and the vote will be extremely close. His opponent is a respected ex military officer.Probably politically damaged by the shocking Afghanistan revelations of last year. Andrews has the support of head office, also.

  17. If Labor had commonsense with a federal ICAC not only for politicians but also have a seperate corrupt inquiry into libs/nats foreign own media propaganda units like Newsltd. IPA and other media outlets

    The Liberal and Nationals would be split from Newsltd , IPA .

    Also the liberal and National parties would be made to operate completely different to the way they have been there will be no more funding /donations or protection by Newsltd

  18. Phuong Ngo is 13 yrs younger than Nick Lalich. Plenty of time for a come back.

    He could finish his sentence and run for Cabramatta under the Labor banner.

  19. Scott says:
    Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 3:28 pm
    If Labor had commonsense with a federal ICAC not only for politicians but also have a seperate corrupt inquiry into libs/nats foreign own media propaganda units like Newsltd. IPA and other media outlets

    The Liberal and Nationals would be split from Newsltd , IPA .

    Also the liberal and National parties would be made to operate completely different to the way they have been there will be no more funding /donations or protection by Newsltd
    ___________________________________________
    Who is pulling the strings scott? We need to know.

  20. I think Phuong Ngo is on the “never to be released” list. At one time he was in the W2K (willing to kill) gang in Long Bay which usually means you can do what you want because you will never get out.
    His links with Lalich, Richardson and Della Bosca are all a bit of a blur.

  22. Al Pal @ #2686 Sunday, January 31st, 2021 – 3:26 pm

    Any word when the odious and very elderly Kevin Andrews has retained his preselection for Menzies? Assume it is all happening now, and the vote will be extremely close. His opponent is a respected ex military officer.Probably politically damaged by the shocking Afghanistan revelations of last year. Andrews has the support of head office, also.

    Just had a look. Nothing as yet but definitely happening today.

  23. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 3:13 pm
    Nicholas @ #2748 Sunday, January 31st, 2021 – 3:02 pm

    So true.

    The real problem doesn’t lie with the personnel at the top of the ALP — it’s the factional balance inside the party.

    This is all just absolute shit. The great Gough was defiled remorselessly by the Cairns-led Left. They came within a single vote of destroying his leadership. The first premise of the Faux Left is neo-Arcadian – the idea that there was a “better” time before “the fall” came – before Hawke/Keating. This is simply the nostalgia shared by the absent.

  24. Didn’t the EU make comments about controlling exports of vaccines produced in the EU earlier this week?

    Hypocrisy, much!

    And of course never mind poorer countries.

    Countries tighten borders against Covid
    A number of countries tightened their borders against a surge in variant strains of the deadly coronavirus as the United States ordered travellers to wear masks on most public transport, AFP reports.

    With doses of the different Covid-19 vaccines so far approved for use still in relatively short supply – and mass inoculation programs in their early stages – Britain and the EU have become embroiled in an ugly row over the shots they had been promised by AstraZeneca.

    The vaccine developed by the British-Swedish firm is only the third to be rolled out in Europe. But the company has said it can deliver only a fraction of the doses promised to Brussels and London because of production problems.

    As the World Health Organization warned against “vaccine nationalism” both Britain and EU said on Saturday that they were confident the problems could be resolved.

    But tensions showed scant sign of easing.

    France’s European affairs minister Clement Beaune warned it would pose “a problem” if the UK was given preferential treatment.

    “If there is an industrial problem, that can happen, people can understand that,” he said.

    “But if preferential treatment is shown to Britain, that would be a problem.”

    From the Guardian blog

  25. Any word when the odious and very elderly Kevin Andrews has retained his preselection for Menzies? Assume it is all happening now, and the vote will be extremely close. His opponent is a respected ex military officer.Probably politically damaged by the shocking Afghanistan revelations of last year. Andrews has the support of head office, also.

    I’ve even read in the Newscorps rags they think Kevin Andrews should be moved on. That’s one of the drawbacks of 100% rank and file preselection’s. Its harder to move them on even if they have outstayed their welcome or a non-performers. These dinosaurs have a bit of power and they want to retain it as long as they can.

    Philip Ruddock had to be offered a job to move him on. Bronwyn Bishop despite her scandal’s did everything she could to retain her spot in parliament before she was dislodged. Voters had to vote Tony Abbott out.

  26. I see that Ngo was sentenced to life imprisonment “never to be released”. The murder of Newman was a sad episode but it’s inappropriate to bring it up in order to throw more shit at Labor. There’s certainly no evidence to link the ALP to Newman’s death. What else do you have in your bag of dirty tricks OC(?).

  27. Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 3:32 pm

    Who is pulling the strings scott? We need to know.

    ——————-

    You know very well who the United States citizen and his cronies are , pulling the strings for the Libs/nats

  28. ♪ Just because you ♫ think you’re so ♪ pretty,
    ♫ Just because you ♪ think you’re ♫ hot,
    ♪ Just because you ♫ think you’ve got ♪ something
    ♫ That nobody ♪ else has ♫ got,

  29. Scott says:
    Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 3:40 pm
    Lars Von Trier says:
    Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 3:32 pm

    Who is pulling the strings scott? We need to know.

    ——————-

    You know very well who the United States citizen and his cronies are , pulling the strings for the Libs/nats
    ___________
    If its who I think your referring to – I don’t want to say their name on here. Illuminati?

  30. Former President Donald Trump’s five impeachment defense attorneys have left a little more than a week before his trial is set to begin, according to people familiar with the case, amid a disagreement over his legal strategy.
    It was a dramatic development in the second impeachment trial for Trump, who has struggled to find lawyers willing to take his case. And now, with legal briefs due next week and a trial set to begin only days later, Trump is clinging to his election fraud charade and suddenly finds himself without legal representation.
    Butch Bowers and Deborah Barbier, who were expected to be two of the lead attorneys, are no longer on the team. A source familiar with the changes said it was a mutual decision for both to leave the legal team. As the lead attorney, Bowers assembled the team.

    Josh Howard, a North Carolina attorney who was recently added to the team, has also left, according to another source familiar with the changes. Johnny Gasser and Greg Harris, also from South Carolina, are no longer involved with the case, either.
    No other attorneys have announced they are working on Trump’s impeachment defense.
    A person familiar with the departures told CNN that Trump wanted the attorneys to argue there was mass election fraud and that the election was stolen from him rather than focus on the legality of convicting a president after he’s left office. Trump was not receptive to the discussions about how they should proceed in that regard.
    The attorneys had not yet been paid any advance fees and a letter of intent was never signed.

  31. With Trump’s second impeachment trial due to begin on Feb. 9, it is unclear who will take the lead now South Carolina lawyers Butch Bowers and Deborah Barbier have left the team.

    Butch Bowers? Trump would feel more comfortable with somebody like Butch Cassidy.

  33. Q: ex military officer….

    Liberals have a small gene pool these days- IPA or military. It is not very representative of Australia or exactly chock full of talent.
    Military people by definition are a separate elite from the general populace, uniquely unqualified to represent voters.

  35. Mavis
    As Henry II said “who will rid me of this troublesome priest?”
    And we all know how that ended. Maybe not so much with Newman but what of Baldwin’s bashing?

  43. Frydenberg (Liberal Treasurer from Victoria) is doing his bit for Labor in regional Queensland:

    Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk last week called on the Federal Government to extend the JobKeeper payment for struggling industries like tourism.

    “I saw Annastacia Palaszczuk cheekily, to put it lightly, suggest that we extend JobKeeper,” Mr Frydenberg said on Sunday’s Insiders program.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-31/treasurer-rules-out-extension-of-jobkeeper/13106856

  44. Political Nightwatchman says:
    Sunday, January 31, 2021 at 2:44 pm
    Arthur Calwall, Bill Hayden, Simon Crean, Kim Beazley, Mark Latham, Bill Shorten, Anthony Albanese…..

    vs

    Sneddon, Peacock Downer, Hewson…….have I missed anyone?

    Arthur Calwall (1954), Andrew Peacock (1990), and Kim Beazley (1998) all got the higher two party preferred at the election in the years listed despite losing.

    Gough Whitlam did too in (1969) but obviously ended up being the Prime Minster the following election unlike the others listed.

    Oh and you forgot Brendan Nelson.
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    Just a few points: Arthur Calwell’s name is spelt as I have it here. Also, he was not ALP leader in 1954; Herbert (Bert) Evatt was, although you are correct that Labor won the majority of votes that year, but still lost to the Coalition.
    Calwell also suffered this fate when he led Labor in the 1961 federal election, just missing out on the PMship by a few hundred votes in the marginal Queensland seat of Moreton.

  45. Dee Madigan

    Morrison is using Covid as an excuse to allow employers to cut wages and conditions of some of our lowest paid workers, including the essential workers we relied on during Covid.

  47. From living in a cave during the Cultural Revolution (cowering from that other mass murderer, Mao). One of his sisters committed suicide from all the Cultural Revolution pressure.

    Xi is on an official salary of around $25,000 a year. Xi must have been frugal. His net worth is estimated to be around $1.5 billion. Will he execute himself for corruption?

    Not that a mere $1.5 billion should worry him unduly.

    He is in sole control of an economy with a GDP of around $13 trillion.

    https://www.spearswms.com/xi-jinping-net-worth/

  48. When the Libs/nats were elected in September 2013
    Some of the main promises were made

    Surplus in their first year and in every year in office – Lie

    To behave like adults in government and be transparent – Lie

    Not to be a big wasteful and spending government – Lie

    Be on the same team as every Australian – Lie

    Cost of living would not rise – Lie

    No corruption – Lie

  49. Western Australia has been plunged into a five-day lockdown after a confirmed case of COVID-19 went to various locations the community.

    WA Premier Mark McGowan held an emergency press conference on Sunday afternoon, saying a male security guard aged in his 20s had been working at Sheraton Four Points in the CBD where there were four active cases, including two of the UK variant and one of the South African mutant strain.

    He had tested negative on January 15, 17 and 23 but developed symptoms on Thursday.

    “Exactly how the infection was acquired remains under investigation,” Mr McGowan said.

    The lockdown applies to the Perth, Peel and South West regions and beings at 6pm WST on Sunday, running until 6pm on Friday.

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