As we move into what may very well be an election year, the BludgerTrack voting intention poll aggregate is finally cranked back into action. The model, which naturally picked a fairly comfortable Labor win on the eve of the 2019 election, is not quite what it used to be: there are dramatically fewer data points and less depth available in terms of breakdowns (pollsters have promised more rather than less transparency on this score, but thus far largely failed to deliver), which means there’s no point attempting state-level trends and seat projections as was done before.
Nonetheless, and for what it’s worth, you can now see voting intention trends on the sidebar, and in greater detail here. The lodestar for the model is Newspoll/YouGov: the results of the other pollsters, which really just means Essential Research and the occasional Morgan, are adjusted for bias as measured by the extent of their deviation from a Newspoll trend measure. As it happens though, these adjustments don’t amount to much: over time, none of the three pollsters has shown any particular tendency to favour any one party more than the others.
The trend shows a consistently close race through the current term, somewhat in defiance of media narratives, with Labor poking in front on two-party preferred in the wake of last summer’s bushfires but the Coalition maintaining a lead of around 51-49 for most of this year. This pattern is equally evident in the cruder but probably no less effective aggregate that Kevin Bonham knocked together for his comprehensive view of the year in polling. Part of this may be related to the fact that the new YouGov-administered Newspoll has maintained the pollster’s curious habit of being more consistent than the vagaries of random sampling should theoretically lead us to expect.
I’ve also gone the extra mile on the poll data archive, which now includes all of the expanded breakdown data that Newspoll is now providing in its quarterly aggregates (education, income, language and religion, on top of the traditional state, age and gender) and such two-party state breakdowns as Morgan has provided us, right down to two tiny-sample readings for Tasmania. The leadership ratings trends are still in business, though I’ve bumped them in favour of the voting intention trends on the sidebar.
The were a number of nasties bundled along with that covid relief bill. Including yet more copyright related stuff that is going to see a lot of creators abandon Youtube.
The LegalEagle is pissed. Seriously, pissed.
“The Depravity of Unjust Pardons”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMiOMNIRs3k
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/29/us-first-case-new-uk-covid-variant?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=soc_568&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1609281360
Dena Grayson, MD, PhD@DrDenaGrayson
Earlier today, I predicted that this new, more contagious #coronavirus strain was already circulating in the US.
@GovofCO Polis just announced that #Colorado has detected the virus in a person with NO TRAVEL HISTORY.
Expect new #COVID19 cases to skyrocket even more.
Are the platitudes from Gladys, Kerry and the Commissioner, directed toward the multitudes of sometimes compliant denizens of good ole Sydney Town, enough to prevent the virus escaping the somewhat ‘wing and a prayer’ confinement lines established to suggest a collective “all’s well”?
Gladys appears on a high wire but has some very influential organizations and influencers holding the net firmly in place.
On a Federal level, the PM, the Treasurer and the circling Hawke are playing pretends with ‘full steam ahead’ in 2021 to smash worker’s rights, superannuation, climate mitigation, land clearing shackles and the Unions with fingers firmly crossed for ths new team called “the vaccines”.
Maybe the New Year doesn’t hold the usual promise!
Or are a duplicitous political class and a spoilt rotten proletariat to remain on the canvas in the prize fight of life!
Did someone mention China?
Adam Bandt’s enemy of the state speech
Peter Dutton called Greens leader Adam Bandt an ‘Enemy of the State’ for giving this speech.
The law Dutton rushed through on 10/12/2020 (with Labor’s support) has given a *Minister* (not judge) power to approve a warrant to apprehend activists, whistleblowers and journos for ‘questioning’, while searching & seizing property too.
They’re destroying democracy one piece at a time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIweDcHjDrM&ab_channel=AustralianGreens
————
Almost no media about these laws since, but a pile of media rehashing of govt press releases from a week before.
The Saturday Paper and New Daily seem to have the only stories on this since new surveillance laws were passed
AFP’s new power to spy on Australians
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2020/12/12/afps-new-power-spy-australians/160769160010864
The Australian Federal Police (AFP) are being given extra cyber powers to spy on Australians and disrupt computer activity, despite a warning to government that it could turn police into “judge, jury and executioner” and undermine democratic rights.
phoenixRed:
I wonder if the Colorado person had contact with someone who HAD travelled to the UK?
N.Y. prosecutor hires forensic accounting experts as Trump criminal probe escalates
NEW YORK — The Manhattan District Attorney’s Office has retained forensic accounting specialists to aid its criminal investigation of President Trump and his business operations, as prosecutors ramp up their scrutiny of his company’s real estate transactions, according to people familiar with the matter.
District Attorney Cyrus R. Vance Jr has contracted with FTI Consulting to look for anomalies among a variety of property deals, and to advise the district attorney on whether the president’s company manipulated the value of certain assets to obtain favorable interest rates and tax breaks, according to a person with knowledge of the investigation who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity because the matter remains highly sensitive. The probe is believed to encompass transactions spanning several years.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-tax-returns-new-york-investigation/2020/12/29/11c43a38-43c8-11eb-b0e4-0f182923a025_story.html
Confessionssays: Wednesday, December 30, 2020 at 9:51 am
phoenixRed:
I wonder if the Colorado person had contact with someone who HAD travelled to the UK?
**************************************************************
As US health expert Dena Grayson said – I predicted that this new, more contagious #coronavirus strain was already circulating in the US. Sadly, this new, more contagious #coronavirus variant has likely been in the US for at least several weeks.
The US rarely sequences viral samples (unlike the UK, which does), so we had little chance of detecting this early
Just read its reported to be in Canada too : (
“A senior Taiwanese politician has called for greater security and economic cooperation with Australia as his nation tries to counter China’s increasingly assertive military.” The chances of getting Saint Scotty of the Marketing on side are f..k and all. Can anyone see him upsetting the CCP any more than he already has with his Donald style flabby chest beating? He’s all about his self-image, noise and running and hiding when things go arse up.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-30/taiwan-australia-deter-china-coercion-politician-wang-ting-yu/13019864
Cud Chewer @ #NaN Wednesday, December 30th, 2020 – 9:36 am
And McConnell is tossing up whether to allow Trump’s request to be able to sue fb and twitter if they don’t like what he’s saying. 😯
phoenixRED @ #NaN Wednesday, December 30th, 2020 – 9:55 am
And it all comes from South Africa, via the UK, originally. We have the SA variant in Australia too.
phoenixRed:
Apparently this new strain is so much more transmissible too, so we should expect to see cases increase across the world. Not good. You gotta wonder how much this could’ve been reduced if Trump got his shit together and focused on Covid rather than his own personal grievances.
Morrison govt ministers lie to your face. Reducing the Jobseeker “supplement” from $250 to $150 a fortnight is a cut, Ruston.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/brutal-for-people-trying-to-survive-economists-back-jobseeker-extension-wage-subsidy-review-20201229-p56qlf.html?btis
The Donald never disappoints with his growing childishness and tantrums.
“”Republican leadership only wants the path of least resistance,” Trump tweeted. “Our leaders (not me, of course!) are pathetic.””
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/29/politics/donald-trump-mar-a-lago-renovations/index.html
lizzie @ #NaN Wednesday, December 30th, 2020 – 10:05 am
It’s positively Orwellian the way Morrison and his minion Ministers use language to slip and slide around the truth.
Just because the amount is greater than the amount it was pre-COVID does not mean it is not being cut, right now!
“Our leaders (not me, of course!) are pathetic.”
He’s kind of correct. Trump’s much worse than ‘pathetic’. Much, much, much, much worse. Insert all the things Trump is here…
You know, I reckon Trump is going to keep acting like he is President, even after he is gone. He never acted like a normal President over the last 4 years, governing mainly by Twitter decree, so in all likelihood that’s how will keep attempting to bend the political narrative to his will after he is gone from the White House.
Whether he succeeds or not remains to be seen.
This mutating virus becoming endemic is an increasing reality.
NSW is lucky it’s not winter with the current outbreak. Weather makes such a difference.
Sickening!
“ARTIST TAXI DRIVER@chunkymark · 54m
On the day of the horrific news that Coronavirus new cases in the UK reached 53,000 in a ‘single day’.. these headlines tomorrow are Unfcknbelievable”
C@tmomma @ #69 Wednesday, December 30th, 2020 – 7:26 am
Yep. If anything being out of office simply frees him up to do more freelance commentary and stoking the MAGA mob.
Cud,
‘Trackless Tram’ is just a marketing term for a bendy bus or articulated bus.
The pictures in the SMH article are bi-articulated buses.
Brisbane City Council are buying bendy buses to use on their dedicated busways.
https://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/traffic-and-transport/public-transport/brisbane-metro
Wikipedia page on bi-articulated buses.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bi-articulated_bus
Goll @ #55 Wednesday, December 30th, 2020 – 9:47 am
Axios ran a story yesterday with some interesting numbers:
China only major country with net growth in 2020 (2%) and projected 8.4% 2021 = 10% over 2020/2021
USA shrank in 2020 ( -3.6%) and projected growth 4.0% 2021 = 0.25% over 2020/2021
RECP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) involves 15 countries (incl Aus) and 2.2 billion people and accounts for 1/3 of all global economic activity.
BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) is following the footsteps of imperial pasts.
Hugh White in September’s The Monthly, before the current brouhaha, “Choppy Waters” ($) is a good read on the bind Australia finds itself in.
There has never been a peaceful transition in Superpower status, and this transition seems to be accelerating with alarming speed, and American impotency, to date.
I think this is called a wet week.
The news spread looked good this morning. Must be a new editor.
Land of Hope and Corgie.
You’ve got to wonder if the decision to hold the 3rd Test in Sydney is sound,
with the Greater Sydney outbreak now numbering 129, and C.19 positive cases visiting churches in Wollongong, and shopping centres in Figtree. But I guess we must rely on the good judgment of Berejyklian & the Board of CA.
Confessions @ #73 Wednesday, December 30th, 2020 – 10:38 am
I vaguely recall something about Twitter cutting Trump off as soon as he no longer President.
Hope that was correct.
Watson
That’s complicated. What I’d regard as a “trackless tram” has the following features:
– Step free access. In other words, dedicated platforms.
– Ride quality and suspension characteristics equivalent to a tracked tram.
– Quiet. In other words electric.
– Dedicated right of way where possible.
– Something more than 2 segments. So a 30+ metre vehicle.
A lot of vehicles being touted as “trackless trams” are indeed articulated buses and don’t really qualify in my book. But a true trackless tram (as defined above) is a good solution.
A good example of where you could have trackless trams (as per the above definition) is Newcastle. A place where you’re never going to have a full network, at least not at the per kilometre cost we’ve previously seen. You still need dedicated rights of way and therefore some capital cost, but its a lot less expensive than all the railway-style infrastructure we got in the existing tram.
18 cases in NSW, soon everyone at the party will have a case of Beers…
I’m going to say I will be mightily pissed off if I can’t get to New Zealand in June 2021 solely due to this current outbreak in NSW if they can’t get it under control.
How can they possibly hold the Cricket Test now?
Confessions @ #NaN Wednesday, December 30th, 2020 – 10:38 am
…Appearing on RW TV and Radio shows, setting up a site like The Bulwark. Being an alternate political universe basically.
NSW 17000+ tests
9 in Avalon cluster all close associates and already in isolation
6 in the “Croydon cluster” all in one family
1 under investigation in Nth Sydney mentioned yesterday
1 under investigation in Wollongong mentioned yesterday
1 a close contact of Wollongong
18 total
laughtong,
Trump will go to Parler if Twitter cuts him loose. facebook will never get rid of him. Hard to understand how they could.
(Edit is back! Yay! Though for how long? 😉 )
How many thousand are they proposing at the Cricket?
ItzaDream @ #NaN Wednesday, December 30th, 2020 – 10:52 am
I too vaguely recall a comment under a story on Trump’s tweets, which described a twitter account that had been set up to methodically copy/paste/post Trump’s tweets. Twitter soon cut off the account. (This might be apocryphal.)
Cud,
I’m suggesting more than the 30 that is being imposed on the community of Greater Sydney.
Its interesting that Kerry was begging for testing to increase – into the 20s and 30s of thousands.
Its pretty clear that they’ve done the maths and know that there is a rate of testing below which their “gold standard” tracing is useless.
Q: The Parafield cluster was 33. This one from the Northern Beaches which may soon be known as the Greater Sydney outbreak is 129 as of 9am. Not a success story.
And with the Parafield cluster the whole state was put in the toughest lockdown IMMEDIATELY for 3 days….while they sorted out what was going on. And look where we are now- all is good.
Torch
What we need even more than a lockdown is decisive action on mass testing.
Speaking of Trump, there is a technique you can use to train or condition an animal. What you do is intermittently, but never generously, reward the behaviour you’re promoting. The animal is unfulfilled but hopeful and persistent. When you reach that point you’ve captured it. Gambling is an obvious human example. This explains Trump’s style. It’s more than a negotiating technique to “keep ’em guessing”, though it is that too. Trump has conditioned his followers. They belong to him.
LR
Its called partial reinforcement. Also understood in the software industry.
https://evilbydesign.info/greed/partial-reinforcement/
Holy smokes 18 new cases in NSW !
17000 tests. Is it fair to say there’d be more cases found if more testing was done ..?
Where’s the bloody vaccine ??? We were told Australia was ‘at the top of the queue’ …!!
Cud Chewer @ #87 Wednesday, December 30th, 2020 – 11:08 am
…then all off to Crown to party the night away.
CC
I watched that Spanish bridge builder video with a horrible fascination, with the sound off. The stresses on the pivot points would be enormous. The flex in the materials and dynamic loads (wind) would make the required tolerances a nightmare. Was that bridge ever built?
The way Gladys is speaking there is a level of concern. Telling people not to do this and not to do that – go into a hard lockdown you idiots.
Won’t be a good look if this explodes.
Keeps on saying the numbers keep bouncing around! Hey Gladys have a look at Qld, WA, Tas, Vic, NT, ACT and SA – zero cases for days and weeks on end. Do the responsible thing!