My previous post dealt with the report of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters’ inquiry into representation of the territories, which recommended the Northern Territory be crudely guaranteed a second House of Representatives seat while removing the more sophisticated statistical fiddle that helped preserve it when the issue last arose in 2003. As Antony Green noted, this proposal raised the strong possibility that the Australian Capital Territory might lose its recently acquired third seat the next time the determinations are made during the next parliamentary term. However, the federal government has sprung into action with new legislation that promises to preserve both territories’ seats by following Antony’s advice rather than the committee’s.
This is to be done by having the territories’ seat entitlements calculated through the harmonic rather than arithmetic mean, at least so far as their first three seats are concerned (beyond which the issue is likely to remain academic). The principle behind the harmonic mean can best be explained by using a simplified version of the Northern Territory case as an example. The basic problem is that the territory has around 150,000 voters, whereas the average House of Representatives seat has around 100,000 (population rather than voter enrolment is actually used, but the near accuracy of these nicely round figures means I will continue with them for purposes of illustration). Using the conventional arithmetic mean, this places the territory right at the cut-off point between a one-seat and two-seat entitlement. Two seats prevailed when the local economy had the wind in its sails during the late mining and resources boom, but in the more straitened circumstances of the present it only makes it to one.
Using the harmonic mean, the point at which rounding occurs is based not on the mid-point between the two quotas, but the point at which electorates’ populations differ least from the national average. Were the Northern Territory to lose its second seat, the remaining seat with its enrolment of around 150,000 would have 50,000 voters more than the national average. But if its second seat is retained, the two would have around 75,000 each, differing from the national average by only 25,000. The harmonic mean is all about minimising this difference, which in the present example would mean only one-and-a-third quotas would be needed for a second seat, or around 133,333 voters. For the Australian Capital Territory, which similarly stands on the precipice of two quotas and three, the third seat would be retained with 2.4 quotas (240,000 voters in the present example) rather than 2.5. The differences between the arithmetic and harmonic mean tipping points continue to reduce with each additional seat. By Antony Green’s reckoning, the ACT would have fallen below the arithmetic mean benchmark at 2.4796 quotas without the aforesaid statistical fiddle, which the committee had proposed to abolish without the remedial action of using the harmonic mean.
It is perhaps not surprising that the federal government has determined to save the second Northern Territory seat, notwithstanding that both seats are held by Labor: both are winnable for the Country Liberal Party, particularly the Darwin-based seat of Solomon, and an overstuffed single electorate for the Northern Territory would essentially amount to an act of malapportionment to the disadvantage of the territory’s substantial indigenous population. However, there is no such impetus in the Australian Capital Territory, where the Liberals only win House of Representatives seats under extraordinary circumstances (the most recent being the Canberra by-election of 1995), and the removal of a seat could be rationalised, if not justified, with recourse to public service bashing. At a time when mainstream conservatism in the United States is taking to the foundations of democracy with an axe, our own government’s defiance of self-interest to preserve Labor-held seats is worth acknowledging and celebrating.
Elsewhere: in the only bit of polling news to relate right now, JWS Research has released its latest True Issues survey of issue salience, as it does around three times a year. When respondents were asked to nominate the country’s three most important issues without prompting, 42% offered a response within the “hospitals, health care and ageing” category, which is down five from July but well up on the 24% recorded in the pre-COVID days of February. Results are otherwise very similar to the July survey, with economy and finances steady in second place at 32% after shooting up from 18% in February. A plunge in concern for the economy and climate change, down from 26% to 16% last time, has only slightly corrected to 19%, remaining well behind third-placed employment and wages on 32%, up two from July and eleven from February. The poll was conducted online between November 20 and 22 from a sample of 1035.
Socrates @ #904 Thursday, December 10th, 2020 – 3:25 pm
Dutton’s an outright fascist and sociopath who doesn’t even try to hide it.
poroti @ #951 Thursday, December 10th, 2020 – 6:12 pm
Albo’s Howard-esque cash bribe to the outer urbs (childcare) needs the constant drip as well.
For the “Only in Australia” files:
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/dec/10/armpit-advertising-australian-cricket-umpires-to-carry-deoderant-ads-under-their-arms
Sorry. The headline is all you need. I’ll read the article later.
Aside from the COVID slowdown, the coming online of recent years of solar and wind projects, with the continued popular demand for rooftop solar by Australians, has seen a pretty remarkable growth in renewables in 2020.
Almost entirely despite what any federal LNP govt has not done or roadblocks they’ve tried, and much of this is even before any roll out of the recent state government plans. Aside from the ACT and SA which have been doing more for longer.
via OpenNEM
Solar and wind combined produced 11,545 GWh in spring 2020 and it seems for the first time there has been > 30% total renewables for a season/quarter in the east Australian electricity supply.
The next best for solar and wind seasonal quarters are
9,479 GWh over summer 2019-20, with 24% total renewables
9,265 GWh over spring 2019, with 25.6% total renewables
That makes spring 2020, in absolute and relative terms, pretty much 20% or more above the spring and summer solar + wind and total renewable production of the eastern electricity grid of just a year ago or less.
First time since 2005 brown and black coal combined is below 65% of generation as well, with a total of 30,837 GWh or 63.6% for spring 2020. Probably the lowest season/quarter for coal use in decades in Australia, definitely since 2005.
Gas is just a fraction of it all, ~6% for our spring covid recovery, and rarely more than 10% in recent years
There will come a point where coal is far better left in the ground and communities supported. Actually it seems well past that point, but the politics and society norms need to catch up faster.
https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=all&interval=season
On The Drum, Hewson believes that in spite of what Morrison may say, the election will be next September. So after New Year Labor needs to start moving (not his words, my thoughts).
Evening TV news reports that arrests have been made of gangs fleecing bushfire relief funds.
This is wrong – very, very —
That’s the Gummint’s job.
and
Following many instances of business being caught short paying staff – the Gummint is there to help – cut wages to match what was previously being stolen.
Goodnight all. 📺💤
Quoll
Sadly corruption in federal politics is tolerated by partisan LibLab lemmings.
poroti @ #457 Thursday, December 10th, 2020 – 6:12 pm
I just told you, they are already doing the ‘drip, drip, drip’!
C@tmomma @ #957 Thursday, December 10th, 2020 – 6:24 pm
Yes, but that dripping you hear is Labor’s primary vote going down the drain 🙁
The Age
Victoria’s environmental watchdog has overturned all of the approvals it has given to landfills set to accept the West Gate Tunnel’s contaminated soil, in what has been described as a “monumental stuff up” that has shattered the public’s faith in the regulator.
________________
Joining Vic Police and the Fire Services who have lost the public’s faith.
What the hell is happening to the public service in Victoria?
Looks like pressure was applied by the Andrews govt to get the Westgate Tunnel project debacle back on track, and the EPA has then acted unlawfully as a result of this pressure.
Over to you Jacinta and Lily for a full explanation.
P1
‘Yes, but that dripping you hear is Labor’s primary vote going down the drain….’
A very slow drip then, given that Labor’s primary is around what is was at the May election.
Albo did claim it had risen 3%, but that’s only if you go off the election result. Comparing Newspoll with Newspoll, Labor was at 37% on the 15 May 2019 and is now on 36%.
Regardless, there’s very little evidence to suggest that Labor’s primary vote is plummeting, though obviously it would be nicer if it were higher.
Good discussion on The Drum on Family Law Court, which (you probably know) Porter wants to extinguish. This is just LNP ideology, instead of providing more very necessary funding they want to abolish it. Labor and Greens are against him and no expert opinion agrees. There’s a strong platform for Labor there.
The Liberals are simply pandering to the Hanson crowd which openly hates the family court.
Mexicanbeemer @ #471 Thursday, December 10th, 2020 – 6:55 pm
And the Mens Rights Movement, who Howard brought on board.
Don’t forget the Religious Right who would ban divorce.
Morrison will face increasing buffeting from the rest of the world (China, an increasing global concensus on a response to global warming and Biden’s policies on trade, diplomacy and a general return to normalcy in the US).
Australian exporters will become less tolerant of Morrison’s PR spin on China if their sales are badly affected, State and Territory leaders are likely to become more assertive on clean energy and other matters – bushfires, drought and floods related to global warming. It won’t just be Labor campaigning on Workchoices2 that will affect votes but peoples’ lived experiences and fears for the future.
These and other matters will weigh on Morrison as he tries to work out when to go to an election. Will the ‘daggy dad” and beer swilling facades work again during an election campaign?
What will Houston of Hillsong tell Morrison to do?
What will Houston of Hillsong tell Morrison to do?
_____
Pray.
Here’s an informative article on who Joe Biden is choosing to be in his Administration and who he is considering for roles not yet filled:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/08/joe-biden-administration-cabinet-picks-442621#back-to-top
C@T
Yep but i thought the angry men groups were behind Hanson.
BK
Tut tut BK ,it’s Hillsong, so first comes the exhortations to give them money , with promises god will return it to you “ten fold” etc. Prayer ? Optional extra.
Mexicanbeemer
They needed a haven when she was not in Parliament though.
Player One says:
Thursday, December 10, 2020 at 6:26 pm
……that dripping you hear is Labor’s primary vote going down the drain
…or so you hope. There polls suggest that very little has changed since the last election. It seems the votes attracted by the Faux and ON have probably ebbed a bit. This is highly desirable from Labor’s point of view.
Those who wish ill to Labor, of course, will be hoping their enemies prosper.
I remember my grandmother telling me to beware of “gypsies” who would promise to take my money and bless it to make me rich. Similar type of scam I suppose. Not far removed from the old Liberal (Costello?) slogan “Vote for us and you will have more jobs, better pay.
Quoll says:
Thursday, December 10, 2020 at 6:21 pm
…..
There will come a point where coal is far better left in the ground and communities supported. Actually it seems well past that point, but the politics and society norms need to catch up faster.
https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=all&interval=season
Congratulations you have worked it out, pity the Greens gave as a Liberal Government for nothing wouldn’t you say.
citizen
No different to what Scotty from Marketing’s fellow happy clapper people do.
It’s become very very obvious that it’s Labor people destroying progress on climate change.
So entrenched in hating the Greens they cannot even say wow it’s great the Greens are on a unity ticket with Labor on IR laws.
Instead of taking the United front the Greens have presented. Labor protesters are too busy attacking the Greens to present a United front.
Well done guys. With your posts tonight you have published your irrational hatred and prejudice towards the Greens.
Well done. You have just proved why Labor will lose more elections.
Too much emotion. Too little thinking practically.
To the other Labor people I say read it and understand the malignant political cancer within your party.
Taylormade says:
Thursday, December 10, 2020 at 6:37 pm
I notice you ignored nsw?
I almost forgot what I came in to post originally
Congratulations Victoria Labor and political allies on getting the gay conversion therapy ban through the house. Well done.
guytaur
Good news 🙂
guytaur
The Greens have destroyed progress on climate change. It has made a few people very angry.
No stunt will remove the stench.
Socrates
I think you were talking about Melbourne’s transport here yesterday morning. Care to recap?
frednk
What destroyed it was internal Labor wars/plots/power plays leading to the demise of the Labor government .Then of course there are the two scumbags Minchin+Robb who ensured no bipartisan approach.
Prey
(verb -to prey upon the weak in the herd)
(Tony Abbott gets a mention.)
Jonathan Pie – Oven Ready Brexit!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8PBNTsp0QM
I like Adem Somyurek, at least he’s not a hypocrite. Pity he was shut down in Parliament.
What I’d like to know though, is what was Anthony Byrne’s motivation? Such a drastic move and this is his last term anyway. What did Somyurek do (or what was he about to do) to offend Byrne so much? Somyurek must know but he hasn’t said anything on this point, so you might think it was something that doesn’t reflect well on him.
Mexicanbeemer @ #477 Thursday, December 10th, 2020 – 7:56 pm
After Howard got the Royal Order of the Boot, Hanson adopted them.
The Lib/Lab estab are at it again!
As I keep saying, the Greens are the de facto opposition.
The EU has set out contingency measures to allow planes to keep flying, lorries to keep moving and fishing boats to keep working from 1 January, should there be no trade deal with the UK.
With trade negotiations still deadlocked just three weeks before the end of the Brexit transition period on 31 December, Brussels has warned – even if a trade deal is struck – there is no guarantee it will come into force in time.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: “Negotiations are still ongoing.
“However, given that the end of the transition is very near, there is no guarantee that if and when an agreement is found, it can enter into force on time.
“Our responsibility is to be prepared for all eventualities, including not having a deal in place with the UK on 1 January 2021.
“That is why we are coming forward with these measures today.”
The EU has outlined proposals for short-term reciprocal measures for air travel, roads and fisheries.
These include new regulations to allow a six-month period to “ensure the provision of certain air services” between the UK and the EU.
The bloc is also proposing another six-month period for road freight and road passenger transport to continue, as well as a year-long legal framework – if needed – for continued reciprocal access by EU and UK fishing vessels to each other’s waters.
Holdenhillbilly @ #988 Thursday, December 10th, 2020 – 8:48 pm
That’s excessively generous of them. Should just cut the UK off, cold turkey. They wanted to go it alone, so let them be alone.
zoomster @ #960 Thursday, December 10th, 2020 – 6:40 pm
In this case, the trend is not your friend.
It wasn’t going to be a hard sell for Vic labor to get the Greens, Lib Dems and Reason Party to support the gay conversion bill…
I wonder who else saw the Starship test flight today?
Alpha
Not a hard sell at all.
Low hanging fruit. Whenever he is in trouble he always goes to the progressive left and the cult follow in behind like little sheep.
Firefox
A party that produces stunts and little more is not an opposition.
A party that is in coalition to oppose the opposition party is not the opposition party.
A party that can run party meetings in a phone booth is not an opposition party.
Taylormade,
If God doesn’t like the new laws, he can send his objections to the ALP in person. I’m sure he can work out the address…
Taylormade says:
Thursday, December 10, 2020 at 10:36 pm
Alpha
Not a hard sell at all.
Low hanging fruit. Whenever he is in trouble he always goes to the progressive left and the cult follow in behind like little sheep.
There is no rule that said the Liberals had to make fools of themselves again. They could have just kept their trap shut.
Cud Chewer @ #992 Thursday, December 10th, 2020 – 9:35 pm
Wouldn’t call that a “landing”, exactly.
Though I guess if that’s how you plan on arriving on Mars, it’s one of the more humane outcomes. At least it’s quick.
a r
I edited that to “test flight” 🙂 (although they did “land” in the right spot)
I’m quite impressed that they’ve got the flight dynamics about right. It crashed because of fuel flow issues leading to “engine rich exhaust”.
I think Starship will lead to better things. I don’t think it has a business case and its certainly not going to get people to Mars. But today is not the time to point this out to the Elon fan boys 🙂
Hm…my amateur assessment was that they initiated the “suicide burn” a bit too late; hit the ground with too much velocity remaining and then the rest wrote itself.