My previous post dealt with the report of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters’ inquiry into representation of the territories, which recommended the Northern Territory be crudely guaranteed a second House of Representatives seat while removing the more sophisticated statistical fiddle that helped preserve it when the issue last arose in 2003. As Antony Green noted, this proposal raised the strong possibility that the Australian Capital Territory might lose its recently acquired third seat the next time the determinations are made during the next parliamentary term. However, the federal government has sprung into action with new legislation that promises to preserve both territories’ seats by following Antony’s advice rather than the committee’s.
This is to be done by having the territories’ seat entitlements calculated through the harmonic rather than arithmetic mean, at least so far as their first three seats are concerned (beyond which the issue is likely to remain academic). The principle behind the harmonic mean can best be explained by using a simplified version of the Northern Territory case as an example. The basic problem is that the territory has around 150,000 voters, whereas the average House of Representatives seat has around 100,000 (population rather than voter enrolment is actually used, but the near accuracy of these nicely round figures means I will continue with them for purposes of illustration). Using the conventional arithmetic mean, this places the territory right at the cut-off point between a one-seat and two-seat entitlement. Two seats prevailed when the local economy had the wind in its sails during the late mining and resources boom, but in the more straitened circumstances of the present it only makes it to one.
Using the harmonic mean, the point at which rounding occurs is based not on the mid-point between the two quotas, but the point at which electorates’ populations differ least from the national average. Were the Northern Territory to lose its second seat, the remaining seat with its enrolment of around 150,000 would have 50,000 voters more than the national average. But if its second seat is retained, the two would have around 75,000 each, differing from the national average by only 25,000. The harmonic mean is all about minimising this difference, which in the present example would mean only one-and-a-third quotas would be needed for a second seat, or around 133,333 voters. For the Australian Capital Territory, which similarly stands on the precipice of two quotas and three, the third seat would be retained with 2.4 quotas (240,000 voters in the present example) rather than 2.5. The differences between the arithmetic and harmonic mean tipping points continue to reduce with each additional seat. By Antony Green’s reckoning, the ACT would have fallen below the arithmetic mean benchmark at 2.4796 quotas without the aforesaid statistical fiddle, which the committee had proposed to abolish without the remedial action of using the harmonic mean.
It is perhaps not surprising that the federal government has determined to save the second Northern Territory seat, notwithstanding that both seats are held by Labor: both are winnable for the Country Liberal Party, particularly the Darwin-based seat of Solomon, and an overstuffed single electorate for the Northern Territory would essentially amount to an act of malapportionment to the disadvantage of the territory’s substantial indigenous population. However, there is no such impetus in the Australian Capital Territory, where the Liberals only win House of Representatives seats under extraordinary circumstances (the most recent being the Canberra by-election of 1995), and the removal of a seat could be rationalised, if not justified, with recourse to public service bashing. At a time when mainstream conservatism in the United States is taking to the foundations of democracy with an axe, our own government’s defiance of self-interest to preserve Labor-held seats is worth acknowledging and celebrating.
Elsewhere: in the only bit of polling news to relate right now, JWS Research has released its latest True Issues survey of issue salience, as it does around three times a year. When respondents were asked to nominate the country’s three most important issues without prompting, 42% offered a response within the “hospitals, health care and ageing” category, which is down five from July but well up on the 24% recorded in the pre-COVID days of February. Results are otherwise very similar to the July survey, with economy and finances steady in second place at 32% after shooting up from 18% in February. A plunge in concern for the economy and climate change, down from 26% to 16% last time, has only slightly corrected to 19%, remaining well behind third-placed employment and wages on 32%, up two from July and eleven from February. The poll was conducted online between November 20 and 22 from a sample of 1035.
Albo walked into his office to find his staff all sitting in the corner hugging and when he asked what was up to which they replied Mundo is happy!
“Peter Dutton labels Greens leader Adam Bandt ‘enemy of the state’
Daniel Hurst
Daniel Hurst
Peter Dutton has been forced to withdraw a comment branding the Greens leader as an “enemy of the state” during torrid debate on the new Asio powers bill.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/dec/10/australian-politics-live-coalition-scott-morrison-industrial-relations-christian-porter-covid-19-politics-business-economy?page=with:block-5fd16c108f08afb1724b7615#block-5fd16c108f08afb1724b7615
I remember when Senator Eugene McCarthy used to practice Duttonism back in the 1950s. Shame.
QT was simply a mix-match of sneers and lies today. And the worst time is when the PM becomes pseudo sentimental and thanks people to avoid answering questions.
Albo walked into his office to find his staff all sitting in the corner hugging and he asked what was up…………………”The body snatchers got mundo”
Dena Grayson, MD, PhD @DrDenaGrayson
U.S. SHATTERS ITS HIGHEST DAILY DEATH TOLL FROM #COVID19—3, 243 souls lost.
United States :
Coronavirus Cases:
15,820,042
Deaths:
296,698
– 225,441 new cases and 3,243 new deaths in the United States
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
According to CNN:
Socrates says:
Thursday, December 10, 2020 at 3:25 pm
“Peter Dutton labels Greens leader Adam Bandt ‘enemy of the state’
Daniel Hurst
Daniel Hurst
Peter Dutton has been forced to withdraw a comment branding the Greens leader as an “enemy of the state” during torrid debate on the new Asio powers bill.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/dec/10/australian-politics-live-coalition-scott-morrison-industrial-relations-christian-porter-covid-19-politics-business-economy?page=with:block-5fd16c108f08afb1724b7615#block-5fd16c108f08afb1724b7615
I remember when Senator Eugene McCarthy used to practice Duttonism back in the 1950s. Shame.
————————————-
Please.
It was Joseph McCarthy.
Eugene was a decent Senator from Minnesota who ran several times for the Presidential nomination. If you look at his bio you’d realize that everyone on PB would admire him for his policies, particularly his courageous opposition to the Vietnam war, long before it became fashionable. McCarthy represented the Democratic-Farmer-Labor party which is about as close a counterpart as you can get in the U.S. to the ALP.
poroti @ #890 Thursday, December 10th, 2020 – 1:59 pm
Boils down to (and in order of importance):
#1 De-politicise
#2 Pay people to stay home, wear masks, wash hands, etc to protect themselves.
#3 Tell people to stay home, wear masks, wash hands, etc to protect business.
#4 No exceptions.
Late Riser
Plus #6 Be a government people feel able to trust.
Morrison can talk the legs off a chair. I do wish he’d STFU.
Mavis
Seems to be taking the opportunity to show “empathy”. 😉
Mavis
Wouldnt care if it wasnt just verbal diarrhoea.
beguiledagain
My apology! It was indeed Joseph McCarthy who foreshadowed Peter Dutton’s tactics.
That being said, I make no apology for pointing out the rank hypocrisy for somebody as opposed to the protection of equal human rights as Dutton branding another citizen in a democracy an enemy of the state.
lizzie @ #419 Thursday, December 10th, 2020 – 4:04 pm
it only cost taxpayers umpty thousands of dollars to teach him how to fake it till he makes it.
beguiledagain @ #904 Thursday, December 10th, 2020 – 3:50 pm
Opposition leader Adam Bandt has really got under Potato’s skin today…..
C@t
I doubt he’ll ever crack it. He likes himself too much. No humility.
Spotted this on Palmer Report
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/ron-desantis-in-hot-water-after-warrant-to-raid-florida-scientists-home-turns-out-to-be-fraudulent/34722/
By people, Palmer includes the Governor of Florida. Has anyone seen any confirming reports?
By making this outrageous allegation, Dutton gives the distinct impression that he is ‘losing it’.
Morrison falsely claiming that Rudd had left Australia several times during Covid lockdown (a claim easily checkable) gives the impression that he also is ‘losing it’.
This government, puffed up with arrogance but standing on feet of clay, is increasingly finding that a huge PR apparatus designed to fool the punters in Australia is useless when pitted against the outside world. China cares nought about a PM assembling a chook shed from Bunnings, nor do the multitude of countries tackling global warming care about that PM posing with an inflatable santa riding a shark.
lizzie & steve davis:
He makes my skin crawl for it’s obvious he’s as sincere as a post, bringing to mind Orwell’s quote in “Politics and the English Language”:
“The great enemy of clear language is insincerity. When there is a gap between one’s real and one’s declared aims, one turns as it were instinctively to long words and exhausted idioms, like a cuttlefish spurting out ink.”
Well, at least Socrates didn’t say Charlie McCarthy. 😀
mundo
“Opposition leader Adam Bandt has really got under Potato’s skin today…..”
Actually, Adam Bandt is just the leader of the Greens Party, and the only member of that party in the HOR.
Try to keep up, dearie.
lizzie @ #425 Thursday, December 10th, 2020 – 4:09 pm
True. It would be a thankless task to be his coach.
Mavis
Thanks for the nice quote. I need to read more.
I like this. Good line.
I wonder if ‘Opposition Leader’ Adam Bandt (oh well, when you are as blind as a bat like mundo and keep trying to piss all over Labor from the upside down position and it lands all over you instead 😆 ), realises that the point he was trying to make has been totally lost as he was pwned by Dutton calling him an ‘Enemy of the State’? 😐
Although I don’t think medals do much good.
U.S. SHATTERS ITS HIGHEST DAILY DEATH TOLL FROM #COVID19—3, 243
And the ONLY way Donald Trump would be motivated to show an ounce of sympathy for those poor souls would be if he learnt that they had all just voted for him in the election and wouldn’t be around in 2024 to vote for him again.
guytaur says:
Thursday, December 10, 2020 at 1:45 pm
For all those that say the Greens work to only support the Liberal Party.
(Looking at you Briefly and FredNK in particular)
@AdamBandt tweets
Greens have a clear position on gov’s IR bill.
The Greens oppose this bill because it will cut pay and make job insecurity worse.
The Greens will block this bill in the Senate.
To tackle the inequality, jobs & economic crises, we must outlaw insecure work and lift wages.
No matter how hard you try and distance yourself from your coalition partner; the stench will remain.
“The Greens will block this bill in the Senate.”
The Greens may vote against this bill in the Senate, but the blocking, if it occurs, will be the work of the Labor Party.
How many Green Senators are there, again?
The Greens will attempt to Block the Bill in the Senate. And like all Greens’ stunts, it will fail to achieve its intended aim.
The frontline workers who helped us through the pandemic deserve a medal, not a pay cut.”
I believe he copped this line from elsewhere.
But…but…I’m Saint Scotty of the Marketing. How dare they…waah, waah…”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-shrugs-off-need-to-speak-at-global-climate-summit-20201210-p56mgg.html
In a way, it’s better he doesn’t get to pontificate.
Morrison and his government are becoming less and less relevant to global action on climate. By effectively vacating the field, the state premiers and chief ministers doing the right thing have a better chance to contribute.
Hey Scrotty, re the climate summit, do you think this might have had an unfortunate effect on your credibility 🙂
A detailed report on how healthcare workers caught Covid in Aged Care wards.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-12-10/how-health-care-workers-in-victoria-caught-covid/12961340
I think Morrison is on 2 GB.
Why merchant ships are going for scrap. Intersting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qo-2gDg-37w
Ch 10 news has an item on promised but unspent Morrison infrastructure funds – they reckon $6.6 billion over six years. Albo slamming the government and McCormack giving non-answers.
Something else for us to cope with. Changing pronouns.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/why-do-gender-pronouns-matter-and-how-do-you-use-them-20201209-p56m5v.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1607580822
Hope it doesn’t get stuck in the Upper House.
citizen
Labor could ,if they can be arsed, run a pretty good campaign on Scrott’s record of Big Promises ,No Delivery. The bullshit man has quite a list that could be used against him.. Repeat repeat repeat “3 word slogans” highlighting his promises to help are bulldust, his untrustworthiness.
Apparently the Tiger King has asked for a pardon from Trump, but hasn’t heard back from the White House. So he has asked Kim Kardashian to put in a good word for him.
As Jimmy Kimmel put it:
“If one sentence sums up 2020 perfectly, it’s, ‘Joe Exotic asks Kim Kardashian to get him a pardon from Donald Trump’.”
https://youtu.be/WDIFD7pv7hI
It has truly become a 360-degree Reality TV world.
citizen @ #447 Thursday, December 10th, 2020 – 5:31 pm
Talk is cheap.
poroti @ #450 Thursday, December 10th, 2020 – 5:43 pm
They are. I imagine they will ramp it up as the election nears.
Australia really has jumped the shark.
Petter Dutton calling an MP an “enemy of the state”?
The potato head NAZI (Socrates, in this case I think the pejorative term is justified) does not even notice (or possibly care) that he is using the language of every totalitarian regime?
Was he mentored by Pol Pot? Stalin? Pinochet? Himmler?
As an aside, I think that a well tuned epithet can be very powerful politically.
In 1939, Hermann Goering reassured the German people by saying:
“No enemy bomber can reach the Ruhr. If one reaches the Ruhr, my name is not Göring. You can call me Meyer.”
Apparently in the latter part of the war, Goering was often referred to as Meyer.
Presumably not in hearing distance of the Gestapo.
lizzie @ #943 Thursday, December 10th, 2020 – 5:40 pm
The Vic Libs abstained from that vote. Says all you need to know about those weirdo’s.
C@t
Good grief. will they never learn? Leaving it until then is waaay too late. It will be swallowed up in the noise and much will be already forgotten. It needs a constant drip drip drip over a long period of time to ingrain something into the public’s mind.
Take the ‘robodebt’ deaths. They ramped it up recently but all too late.The time to start was back at the beginning and to not stop with the accusations and “3 word slogans”.
poroti @ #941 Thursday, December 10th, 2020 – 5:43 pm
Labor could run with a meme that morrison has “Stabbed Aussie Workers in the back” which they have. Repeat it over and over and over, Day in day out.
Heaps of room there to put morrison on the back foot, but I don’t see albo having the ticker for it. He just wants a nice quiet time.
Not that I see too much fire in the belly from other senior labor people either.
Abbott had many faults as LOTO but failure to get on the front foot and present his case to be in Government was not one of them.
He made opportunities and then exploited them. It was rarely a pretty sight but he never gave up.
albo hasn’t even started to put a case to vote Labor, let alone be the Government.
albo not missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity.