Preselections: Groom and WA Liberal Senate

Early manoeuvres for a Liberal vacancy in a looming federal by-election, and a preselection to fill Mathias Cormann’s Senate seat set for November 7.

With Newspoll and Essential Research both having said their piece this week, there is likely to be a fortnight gap between federal polls. Not counting state and territory election action, which you can be assured you will be hearing more about shortly, there are two important preselections on the boil on the conservative side of politics:

• A situation is vacant for the Liberals in the Toowoomba-based federal seat of Groom following last week’s resignation announcement from John McVeigh, the member since 2016. In a column for the Brisbane Times, former Newman government minister and current 4BC presenter Scott Emerson says the vacancy presents an opportunity to head off a stoush over the order of the next Senate ticket between James McGrath and Amanda Stoker. The winner of this fight will get top position while the loser must settle for third, second being reserved for the Nationals. Emerson reports that this amounts to a battle between moderates and the Christian Right, of which McGrath is apparently one of the former. The suggestion is that Groom might give McGrath an opening, but in this he could face opposition from locals who support the claim of Toowoomba councillor Rebecca Vonhoff. Suggestions the seat might be of interest to another Senator, Matt Canavan, are complicated by the fact that he is a National, the sensitivity of which was illustrated when the LNP organisation blocked an attempt by the seat’s previous member, Ian Macfarlane, to jump ship from Liberal to the Nationals in 2015.

Nathan Hondros of WAToday reports the Liberals will hold their preselection to fill Mathias Cormann’s Western Australian Senate vacancy on November 7, with the winner to take third position on the party’s ticket at the next election behind Michaelia Cash and Dean Smith. There would appear to be three nominees: Julian Ambrose, stepson of the late Perth construction billionaire Len Buckeridge; Sherry Sufi, an arch-conservative party activist; and Albert Jacob, former state Environment Minister and current mayor of Joondalup, who emerged as a “last-minute nomination”. Jacob held the coastal northern suburbs seat of Ocean Reef from 2008 to 2017, when he was defeated in the landslide the tipped the Barnett government from office. Cormann is reportedly lobbying for Ambrose, and his backers are pressuring Sufi to withdraw.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,450 comments on “Preselections: Groom and WA Liberal Senate”

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  1. steve davis @ #2047 Wednesday, September 30th, 2020 – 9:17 pm

    C@t
    Just the usual union bashing. No fucking evidence of 40 ships off Sydney. Complete fake news in this case. A working class person is not allowed to earn good wages and conditions just because they are not an arse licking manager or Chairman of the Board. Fucking Newscorpse doesnt even pay tax in this country. Those workers are paying far more tax than the Murdoch scum ever will. The media are are a fucking disgrace.

    They never stop! Even during a pandemic, the Corporatist federal government plow on with their agenda to make serfs of working men and women by villifying the group that stands up for them, the Unions. It’s disgraceful behaviour.

  2. What type of voter elected Morrison and the Liberal Party ?
    Self-serving spivs governing for self-serving spivs no less.
    A coalition of cane toads and carp.
    The national currency : duplicity and crumbs. Not even a pandemic can distract the rats nor wash the filthy grime from their greed.
    Gas and Market Forces in cinematography and original soundtrack.
    The upcoming elections most probably more of the same.
    Astounding the lesser measure.

  3. Herald Sun Sept 30
    “Within government, that Andrews made the decision to use private security guards is not a matter of conjecture. Why he chose to make such a risky decision is a matter of much speculation”
    ________________
    Ross Gittins hinted at this last night, now Somurek weighs in.

  4. Taylormade, the Herald-Sun is hardly an authority on morality in governance, or anything else actually.

    Quoting a newspaper op-ed as the beginning and ending of the matter is intellectually fallacious, and knavery of an elevated order on your behalf.

    I get that you don’t like Dan Andrews. You’re not on your Pat Malone there. But the last couple of months have seen an unmitigated stream of adverse comments from you on the subject of Victoria’s Labor government, and Andrews in particular.

    To cite the Herald-Sun in support of your argument diminishes it, verging on troll-like behaviour. Put it this way: if the Herald-Sun is all you’ve got, you ain’t got much.

    Why is the Right so obsessed with getting Andrews?

    It’s either to protect Morrison (who is surely culpable for broken promises, a poorly performing economy, and outright policy failure in the Aged Care area), or it gives a bit of a leg-up to the woefully pathetic Victorian Liberals who, in all the confusion, appear to be long on slagging-off and short (VERY) on solutions. A bigger bunch of empty-headed whingers is hard to imagine.

    What the Herald-Sun reckons (or Ross Gittins, or Adam Whatsisname) doesn’t really amount to anything more than their opinion. Quoting them is stupid.

    If anyone’s opinion counts it’s that of the Victorian people and they have objectively – not in an op-ed, not in a completely fact-free column like Gittins’, and certainly not in a spewforth of vitriol from a sore loser like Whatsisname, but in scientifically conducted polls – shown that they support Andrews.

    If anyone would be pissed off you’d think it’d be the Victorian people. But they’re happy. Stating the opposite in the hope of changing their minds seems futile, to me.

  5. The Herald Sun has no more credibility as a source of news than a Liberal Party pamphlet. Ditto the Daily Telegraph. Its front page today was attacking Albo for not piling onto the MUA.

    In other “news”, Christmas ads have started on commercial TV.

  6. BB
    “ Why is the Right so obsessed with getting Andrews?”
    My money is on protecting Morrison.
    High death rate in aged care has to be blamed on someone. If they can’t make Andrews the fall guy then that leaves the real culprits, Colbeck and his boss, Morrison

  7. Bushfire Bill:

    What the Herald-Sun reckons (or Ross Gittins, or Adam Whatsisname) doesn’t really amount to anything more than their opinion. Quoting them is stupid.

    Did Ross Gittins—an economist/journalist in the Sydney Morning Herald— actually make comments about security guards?

  8. Maude Lynne@ 10:57 pm

    BB
    “ Why is the Right so obsessed with getting Andrews?”
    My money is on protecting Morrison.

    It much broader than that. After he won the 2014 election, the Liberal and their fellow travellers convinced themselves that Andrews was unpopular and always directed their attacks at the “Andrews Labor government”. While the result of the 2018 showed how deluded that notion was, it seemed to rile them even more, and they have become desperate to find any possible chink in his armour.

    Baxendale’s questioning at Andrews’ media briefings are a particular example of that.

  9. EGT asked:

    Did Ross Gittins—an economist/journalist in the Sydney Morning Herald— actually make comments about security guards?

    Gittins wrote:

    Back to the search for a guilty party. In Canberra lore, conspiracies are always trumped by stuff-ups. So I don’t find it hard to believe that no one in particular made the decision to outsource the running of hotel quarantine to private contractors. It really was a decision that, in Scott Morrison’s memorable phrase, “made itself”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/if-you-do-health-admin-on-the-cheap-don-t-be-amazed-if-things-go-wrong-20200929-p5608e.html

  10. Andrews offends because he’s unapologetically of the Left, lead a progressive agenda to two state elections and won both of them, one of them in a landslide, initially against a first term Liberal Government and then again against a Coalition Opposition that used every trick that worked for them at federal elections. It threatens their idea that right-wing culture war memes are always going to save the day for them and don’t understand that Victorians aren’t interested. Their theory is that they just weren’t nasty enough so if they ratchet it up, they’ll win.

    The messaging of the Andrews Government has generally been relentlessly optimistic, forward looking, and people focussed. The media, conservatives and his factional enemies like Somnyurek don’t know how to respond to something like that.

  11. Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG/IgM antibodies among Danish and Swedish Falck emergency and non-emergency healthcare workers
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.26.20202259v1

    Of the 3,272 Falck employees participating in this study, 159 (4.9%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The seroprevalence was lower among Danish Falck employees than among those from Sweden (2.8% in Denmark and 8.3% in Sweden). We also found that number of customer or patient contacts during a workday was the most prominent predictor for seropositivity, and that ambulance staff was the most vulnerable staff group. Conclusions: Our study presents geographical variations in seroprevalence within the Falck organization and shows evidence that social interaction is one of the biggest risk factors for getting infected with SARS-CoV-2.

    This might confirm some people’s pre-existing opinions! Note however cohort is self selecting and heavily skewed.

  12. Bushfire Bill:

    Gittins wrote:

    Back to the search for a guilty party. In Canberra lore, conspiracies are always trumped by stuff-ups. So I don’t find it hard to believe that no one in particular made the decision to outsource the running of hotel quarantine to private contractors. It really was a decision that, in Scott Morrison’s memorable phrase, “made itself”.

    What Mr Gittins wrote (above)—that no-one in particular made the decision—is completely inconsistent with what Taylormade suggested and (according to Taylormade) Mr Somurek (sic) said (that Mr Andrews made the decision).

  13. If Taylor made got a hint from the Ross gittins article to which you referred BB, that informed him that Andrews had anything to do with engaging security guards, all it tells me is taylormade gets 0 out of 10 for comprehension.

    Gittins conclusion is a stuff-up, not a conspiracy. And gittins is undoubtedly right.

  14. Bulger
    Andrews is outwardly left and pro unions but he also does something else which the Liberals would find frustrating and that is he doesn’t play class war in the sense of “the top end of town” or the “rich” are not terms Andrews uses so it able his government to appeal to usual Liberal voters because he isn’t threatening him. We saw this with Karen from Brighton where he simply said it doesn’t matter if you are in Brighton or Broadmeadows.

  15. Windhover

    Indeed.

    One fights the first phase of a war with the plans and processes one had when it started. While systems are under active stress is it only adverse results that lead to change. This is partly (or mostly) due to inertia but also often wiser than the alternative – as changes made under stress are more than usually likely to result in making the situation worse.

  16. Mexican

    You are correct that Mr Andrews avoids getting distracted by “class war”

    However, that is not the only stupid distraction he avoids, and his ability to do this (and his consequent effectiveness) is why he is targeted relentlessly.

  17. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/30/business/shell-job-cuts/index.html

    “ Royal Dutch Shell will slash as many as 9,000 jobs as the oil giant accelerates a shift away from fossil fuels.

    The Anglo-Dutch company said Wednesday that it would cut between 7,000 and 9,000 positions by the end of 2022, potentially affecting more than 10% of its workforce. The total includes 1,500 people who have volunteered to leave the company this year.

    The job losses are part of an overhaul aimed at cutting costs and simplifying the company’s structure as it moves into low-carbon energy.”

    The LNP will not like the sound of this.

  18. The average of the three polls post-debate give it to Biden about 53-36. Pretty solid result I think. The second debate is a town hall style which Biden is good at. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a monumental meltdown from Trump. And I reckon there will be a few more nasty stories to drop from here on in that will hurt Trump even more. He has made a lot of enemies along the way.

  19. Interesting article on Trump and evangelicals in The Atlantic. He privately mocks believers but respects the hustle of entrepreneurial pastors :

    It helped that Trump seemed to feel a kinship with prosperity preachers—often evincing a game-recognizes-game appreciation for their hustle. The former campaign adviser recalled showing his boss a YouTube video of the Israeli televangelist Benny Hinn performing “faith healings,” while Trump laughed at the spectacle and muttered, “Man, that’s some racket.”

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/09/trump-secretly-mocks-his-christian-supporters/616522/

  20. Bugler,

    I’m sure you’re right, but “theory” is such a strong word when applied to the mouth from the south, Dim Tim – and the Vic. LOTO (TBC).

  21. Nath speaks truth:

    Interesting article on Trump and evangelicals in The Atlantic. He privately mocks believers but respects the hustle of entrepreneurial pastors

    However, it won’t be remaining private – Donald loves the camera…

  22. sprocket_ at 4:54 pm

    Clive Palmer’s defamation hearing against Mark McGowan had a directions hearing today in the HC. And the Palmer showed up to represent himself – which gave Keifel CJ the chance to kick his fat arse.

    “It’s the vibe of the thing.”

    Quietly dropped before the 16 October deadline?

  23. RonniSalt @RonniSalt

    I need to know before I check out tonight.

    Have they found those missing ships off Botany Bay yet?

    There’s 40 of them you know.

    All gone. Disappeared.

    #wherethefeckarethey #thebermudabullshittriangle

  24. ABC News 6:00: The news reporting on the Patrick’s dispute airs the discredited claims that the union is blocking medical supplies.

    The unions claims have proved to be accurate:

    40 ships waiting do not exist
    the union did offer to unload any medical supplies

    The news to report accurately the situation discovered by its own reporters.

    Statements by the PM have inertia by the importance of the office.

  25. “Statements by the PM have inertia by the importance of the office.”

    The PM has demonstrated immensurable inertia by doing fuck all.
    #ShirkerfromtheShire

  26. preconditions for extra-constitutional transfer of power : chaos & confusion (doubt)
    – stack the courts for four (4) years, at all levels : with fed. soc. partisans who will find for the republican party regardless of evidence or law. (mcconnell gave judicial appointments preference above other senate business, even during the pandemic when relief for citizens is being held up by his party) (attorney general barr at the apex of the legal system works for trump, not the united states).
    – appoint a loyal handler to wreck the postal service : so that mail ballots will be very delayed, making it easier for local area republicans to challenge their inclusion in the count.
    – gerrymander : voters suspected of favoring the democrats are being refused, votes by any means possible, on the basis that a vote for a democrat is a fraudulent vote.
    specious legal challenges : being launched now, will intensify, intended to foment election chaos, judges will exploit these challenges to prevent mail votes being counted, where that helps trump.
    – steal electoral college votes : republican states have the power (its the constitution) to vote trump in the electoral college, if their voters don’t choose trump, by claiming the vote was rigged.
    – repeatedly describe any democrat win as fraud : in doing this trump encourages far right violent insurgency & far right armed intimidation.

    he didn’t go to cleveland to debate, he went there to perform : in his performance he reiterated his claim that if he is not elected it would be by fraud, he told his followers to “guard against fraud” at voting places, he told “his judges” they would be “counting ballots”, he told his irregulars to “stand ready”. -a.v.

  27. The right to protest and demonstrate, the beating heart of freedom of political expression, is the cornerstone of democracy, even in the most narrow, minimal conception of democracy. This is always the case, but it’s even more so during an existential (for the regime), health and economic crisis.

    “Emergency” is a deceptive concept. On the one hand, we are in the midst of an extraordinary situation in which there is a serious threat to the public, a situation that could indeed justify restrictions on rights that could never even be considered if things were normal. On the other hand, an emergency situation could be utilized by a government seeking unbridled power, like the Israeli government, to undermine the basis of rights on which democracy stands and from which it derives its vitality.

    Let there be no doubt: What is being called restrictions on demonstrating are not limitations but the frustration of the right to demonstrate. Demonstrating against the regime is meaningless if you cannot demonstrate in front of the seat of government or in other central public places. There is no meaning to the right to demonstrate when you cannot mass together to realize it. Small “demonstrations” a short distance from protesters’ homes aren’t even a poor man’s demonstrations. They are a sad joke.

    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israel-didn-t-just-limit-demos-it-neutered-the-right-to-protest-1.9196647

    (Incognito mode or Outline to read)
    ======================

    The Israeli Government has banned demonstrations under its coronavirus restrictions, although people are still allowed to protest within 1 kilometre of their homes. Until now all demonstrations were specifically excluded from coronavirus restrictions and people were allowed to demonstrate anywhere without restrictions. Over the last few months hundreds of thousands of people have been demonstrating all over the country several times a week (with masks and social distancing) and while the covid-19 situation there is out of control, all evidence shows that there are virtually no covid-19 infections resulting from these demonstrations.

    Many people over there consider the restriction on demonstrations to be the end of democracy. While it’s quite possible to argue that democracy never actually existed in Israel (with military regime over its Arab citizens until several months before the 1967 war and a military apartheid regime over millions of people who have no civil or political rights since that war) it is still ranked as a (flawed) democracy by the democracy index (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).

    Australia is ranked as a full democracy and although I think that the health of our democracy is declining, it is still more robust than in many other countries. Yet under the coronavirus restrictions here protests have been banned and protesters are fined or arrested. I think that it’s quite worrying that the vast majority of the Australian population is so complacent and willing to accept (even in these extraordinary times) without questioning, the most severe restrictions on the right to protest and that this may be an ominous sign for the future of our democracy.

  28. Rex Douglas says:

    Wednesday, September 30, 2020 at 5:39 pm

    Biden – “I see no benefit for the American people in these debates continuing. The President has shown that he has no intention of conducting himself in a ‘Presidential’ manner, so, I’ll be focusing the rest of my campaign on the positive policy solutions I’m committed to, to improve the lives of all Americans.”

    That’s what he should say tomorrow.

    ===============================

    Agree. Biden was still standing (just) after Trump’s assault and probably proved what he had to prove, but I doubt very much he can go another two rounds. His campaign team should find a way to avoid further “debates”. Biden has nothing to lose by doing that and nothing to gain by showing up again.

  29. No way they should turn off Trumps mic in the next debate. The main reason Biden won the recent debate was because we could all hear and see Trumps loutish, juvenile, desperate interference tactics.

    If his mic is muted, we won’t hear it but Biden still will. And Biden needs a calmer environment to perform well in these debates. Trump knows this and will keep bulldozing the format – mic muted or not.

  30. SK –

    Yep. Mute the mic. and Trump will just start shouting and/or move to the “live” mic.
    (Actually, that’s not a bad idea… He won’t have a tame Fox “moderator” next time.)

  31. Sumeyya (The Age) asks similar questions in the same accusatory tone as “Rachel”, although she hasn’t become the star of the show.

    She casts doubt on Dan Andrews’ leadership and then denies any appetite for leadership change, all in the one paragraph. He has no rivals for power, but is losing internal support and is “an election winning machine”.

    Bushfire Bill would do a much better critique of this article than I can.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/cracks-in-the-armour-dan-andrews-party-support-weakened-but-intact-20200930-p560re.html

  32. This story of many bad mortgage debts in Qld highlights why a light regulation approach to lending will not lead to a recovery. Australia’s total mortgage debt is $18 trillion, nine times GDP. If even 10% of them go bad the recession will turn into a depression. Waiting for comment from Treasurer Frydenberg.

  33. Simon Katich @ #2083 Thursday, October 1st, 2020 – 4:55 am

    No way they should turn off Trumps mic in the next debate. The main reason Biden won the recent debate was because we could all hear and see Trumps loutish, juvenile, desperate interference tactics.

    If his mic is muted, we won’t hear it but Biden still will. And Biden needs a calmer environment to perform well in these debates. Trump knows this and will keep bulldozing the format – mic muted or not.

    I doubt whether there’s a choice.

    Both sides would have agreed to the terms of the debates before agreeing to go ahead with them and the open mics was probably part of that agreement.

  34. Biden has everything to lose by not showing up. He can’t just not show up. He can’t even think it an option.

    Hopefully the format and moderator of the next debates are more preferable to him. Perhaps a real moderator, better prepared and willing to call off the debates if Trump ignores the rules and trashes it would be a start.

  35. Simon Katich @ #2091 Thursday, October 1st, 2020 – 6:55 am

    No way they should turn off Trumps mic in the next debate. The main reason Biden won the recent debate was because we could all hear and see Trumps loutish, juvenile, desperate interference tactics.

    If his mic is muted, we won’t hear it but Biden still will. And Biden needs a calmer environment to perform well in these debates. Trump knows this and will keep bulldozing the format – mic muted or not.

    It’s like that old joke where a meek and mild individual is harrassed, harangued and bullied by a group of Bikers in a pub. He absorbs it all then goes outside and runs over the bikes in his car.

    Biden winning the vote in November is the best answer.

  36. Sorry Barney, I am mobile and didn’t post the article (reporting that the following debate rules will allow mics to be turned off if one of them interrupts or goes too long in an answer) I was referring to.

    Seems the debate committee does have some control over what the rules are.

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