Courtesy of The Australian, the latest Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead down to 52-48 from 53-47 three weeks ago, from primary votes of Coalition 43% (down one), Labor 33% (doen one), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 4% (steady). Scott Morrison is steady at 68% approval and up two on disapproval to 29%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively steady at 41% and down two to 38%. Morrison’s lead as prime minister has nonetheless widened very slightly, from 59-26 to 60-25. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1509.
What I remember more vividly is in 2019 when an online forum was full of commentators who were insisting that Labor couldn’t lose the election – based on the most favourable interpretations of narrow opinion polls and random qualities like how much people were smiling at the Labor campaign launch – and anybody who said differently was a concern-troll or ‘bedwetter.’ I remember very well how that turned out.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/sa-senator-rex-patrick-will-quit-centre-alliance-and-run-as-an-independent/news-story/87671d5633898ea9a7f46ce8b4367828
SA Senator Rex Patrick will quit Centre Alliance and run as an independent
Matt Smith, Political Editor, The Advertiser
August 9, 2020 8:53pm
Centre Alliance senator Rex Patrick will quit the party – a rebranding of the Nick Xenophon Team – and go it alone in a bid to retain his spot in the Australian Parliament at the next election.
Senator Patrick has described the decision as more of a “marketing” move than a split with fellow Centre Alliance MPs Senator Stirling Griff and Member for Mayo Rebekha Sharkie.
But Senator Griff said Senator Patrick had been “running his own race for some time”.
Senator Patrick, who will run as an independent, said Centre Alliance was facing an uphill battle to get a single seat in the next Senate, let alone two, which would be a disaster for South Australia.
https://twitter.com/Senator_Patrick
Rex Patrick @Senator_Patrick
Independent Senator for South Australia. Former RAN submariner, project manager and small business owner. Authorised by R. Patrick, Adelaide SA 5000.
https://www.rexpatrick.com.au/
Rational Leftist @ #51 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 10:36 pm
Me too.
NonSequitur @ #47 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 10:29 pm
‘The data suggests the result was determined by the campaigns’
No shit.
Bushfire Bill:
It’s not that the relationship “could be unprofessional” but rather that it “is unprofessional” and the lawyer must withdraw.
steve davis @ #41 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 10:23 pm
A really good leader who believes in him/herself and his/her party and a really good team behind them who believe in themselves and their party….. and know how to use politics to win power.
Rex Patrick can run however he wants, it won’t make a difference. Both of the CA Senators’ time will be up on 1 July 2022 – as the party’s support has collapsed entirely since it’s no longer been attached to Xenophon’s coattails. Sharkie will likely be fine, simply because she has a connection with her electorate and she’s basically seen as an independent by her electors anyway.
Player One @ #39 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 10:21 pm
Labor has to turn up prepared to take it up to the tories.
Albo doesn’t fight tories anymore. Time to move on.
“The level of support in QLD is indeed a source of sadness for anyone who wants to see Labor win elections. There is nothing – not one single thing – that suggests Labor support has revived in QLD.”
Well cobber I haven’t seen any polling but suspect you are right. Actually, I think Federal Labor should basically give up on winning any regional or GC/SC seats. It’s just too culturally left wing.
However, with a good leader and a bad LNP Government it should be able to pick up a few Brisbane seats.
Rational Leftist says:
Sunday, August 9, 2020 at 10:36 pm
Remember when ‘The End of the World’ brigade despaired that Labor would be out of power federally for a generation after the Latham Labor defeat of 2004? Well, they weren’t.
What I remember more vividly is in 2019 when an online forum was full of commentators who were insisting that Labor couldn’t lose the election – based on the most favourable interpretations of narrow opinion polls and random qualities like how much people were smiling at the Labor campaign launch – and anybody who said differently was a concern-troll or ‘bedwetter.’ I remember very well how that turned out.
>……………………….>
Do you also remember the bookies who paid out on an ALP win?
Albo is a fizzer. Unluckily so, given the COVID19 effect but that’s the reality.
So the choice would be between Jim Chalmers, who may not ready, and Tanya Plibersek, who may help in NSW but not so much in Brisbane.
I expect that it will be Tanya Plibersek given the ‘time for another woman’ factor.
What I remember is door-knocking in Pearce and Stirling and finding that friendly voters who had voted in droves for Mark MacGowan had no similar interest in voting for Bill Shorten, and instead were responding to the promotional material put out by the Liberals.
I very well recall asking one voter – a bank loans manager who had moved to WA from NSW and considered herself to be Labor-leaning – who she thought would win. She predicted the Liberals would win. She said the issue was jobs. She was right.
Rational Leftist @ #51 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 10:36 pm
In other words, who really knows anything about anything to do with politics? What is certain though is that no one can predict the future.
From previous thread:
steve davis @ #2622 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 6:03 pm
People said that Trump would be the most divisive president and they werent wrong.Imagine another 4 years of this halfwit RWNJ.
To be fair though, Clinton would’ve been just as divisive. FoxNews et al would’ve made sure of that.
Don’t forget that Trump was the most unpopular candidate for POTUS ever. Clinton was the second most unpopular.
If Clinton had won in 2016, within nanoseconds of her being sworn in, the Republican controlled (at that time) House and Senate would’ve impeached before she even plunked her arse behind the Resolute desk.
Trump is not the cause of division in America, he is the natural outcome of that division which has been present there for decades.
Historyintime @ #61 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 10:53 pm
Mere speculation which shows how little you know about Labor.
Non
I presume the same voter will be expecting the Libs to create jobs again after the crisis is over and by the sound of it others will too. The sad thing is that most jobs are only going to be in service industries which are lower paid and the belief in the myth that govt create jobs is a joke.
It’s well worth remembering that the campaigns determined the result. There was no such thing as a foregone conclusion. The months of posturing in the pre-campaign phase meant nothing. The polling meant very little. Voters responded to the campaigns and Labor ran a null campaign pitched around the weaknesses of the former Lib PM, Malcolm Turnbull, rather than the actual contestant, Morrison. The Liberals ran on jobs and taxes and synonyms for jobs and taxes, as they always do.
A big problem with the discourse here (and I think in a lot of Labor circles) in 2019 was that nobody could fathom that Bill Shorten wasn’t as liked as they thought he was. The consensus inside the bubble ranged from him being mostly harmless and well-meaning all the way to him being this amazing inspiring figure who will achieve his destiny to become one of this country’s greatest leaders. The view outside of the bubble was less much less flattering.
I fear the same bubble is being formed now. While there isn’t any major distrust of Albanese, the fact is he is just not really standing out as an alternative. He just looks like one of those interim leaders that gets to be in the chair by virtue of it being “his turn” and then eventually gets replaced by a good leader once the party gets its shit together and can coordinate behind a message and a theme. He has time to turn things around and, who knows, maybe things will get that bad (with looming recessions and all) that anyone would be able to lead Labor to victory at the next election but, right now, he seems less like a Hawke or Rudd, and more like a Crean or Beazley.
I know what you mean Windhover, but the Professor’s disapproval of even friendships between lawyer and client is going too far. I still don’t see what the NineFax is doing putting her views into their pages. If they have an objection, then tell the judge. Putting a single non-judicial opinion as a news item in the papers just looks like bullying from a position of undue influence in the public forum.
Even Crowley-Cyr’s position is ambivalent (as set out in the extract from an article she wrote below). In short, she admits “There’s no law against it”, regarding sex with your client. Going further, one would think that prohibiting lawyers and their clients even being friends with each other is too stupid and unenforceable for words.
mundo says:
Sunday, August 9, 2020 at 10:43 pm
steve davis @ #41 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 10:23 pm
So what is it going to take for the labor PV to rise significantly from 33%?
A really good leader who believes in him/herself and his/her party and a really good team behind them who believe in themselves and their party….. and know how to use politics to win power.
Not so much. Voters do not put a lot of weight on leaders…..and why would they, considering how frequently they’re changed without consultation or notice.
Labor will improve when it’s identified by voters as having their economic interests in the forefront of their policy commitments. Jobs. Living costs. Household incomes. Taxes. These things are at the centre of voters’ concerns. They have to be the central themes for Labor.
Labor can win if they persuade voters that they will all be better off under Labor than under the Liberals. In this context, Labor campaigned against itself at the last election. It was promising to make some voters worse off. It was easy for the Liberals to persuade voters that they would all be worse off under Labor.
This is old-fashioned hip-pocket/Ben Chifley politics. Australia has not changed.
mundo says:
Sunday, August 9, 2020 at 10:43 pm
steve davis @ #41 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 10:23 pm
So what is it going to take for the labor PV to rise significantly from 33%?
A really good leader who believes in him/herself and his/her party and a really good team behind them who believe in themselves and their party….. and know how to use politics to win power.
—– Get rid of toxic media—–
Rational Leftist @ #68 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 11:04 pm
‘While there isn’t any major distrust of Albanese, the fact is he is just not really standing out as an alternative. He just looks like one of those interim leaders that gets to be in the chair by virtue of it being “his turn” and then eventually gets replaced by a good leader once the party gets its shit together and can coordinate behind a message and a theme.’
How long do we have to wait?
Albo is there till he loses the next election, then who?
Politically the Liberals run rings around Labor. Labor knows it. That’s why they lack confidence.
Who turns that around?
Got any names?
Zerlo @ #71 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 11:08 pm
Of course, that’s it, get rid of toxic media.
Of course.
Why wasn’t obviously that simple.
Rigiht, lets go.
Will we do it tomorrow?
Maybe the day after.
I don’t know. You decide.
If the jobs dont come as Smoko says then Labor could definitely mount a case for change.If voters start feeling extreme hardship then they could switch to Labor.At the moment the long term pain is being masked by the handouts, but if Smoko doesnt deliver on his Jobscheme plans when the handouts are over then the shit will hit the Libs hard.
NonSequitur @ #70 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 11:08 pm
‘Voters do not put a lot of weight on leader’
Absolute utter rolled gold bollocks.
While I personally have time for Albo, and can’t see what else he should be doing other than waiting for the inevitable Morrison cock-up, I have to say that I don’t think I’ve met one Labor supporter face-to-face who is energised or inspired by him. In fact they are ALL disappointed with how he’s turned out as Leader.
And that is a major problem for Labor.
Albo cannot politicise the response of the federal government to the pandemic. The pandemic is the only story there is at the moment. And Albo has to sit tight. Too bad. He might also be a covid casualty. If he sets out to make political capital at Morrison’s expense he certainly will be. His approval numbers would fall into single figures.
Covid is the most extraordinary event most of us will witness in our lifetimes. It has affected the entire human population to some extent or other at the same time. It has constrained many things, including the political discourse. It’s by no means over yet. Albo is holding his cards for now. There is no real alternative….not yet.
Time was, I used to go to HK for marketing related purposes fairly often. In the district where I was hoping to sell the buyers always had managers who seemed to do nothing. They were just sitting and observing. But they were not doing nothing. They were waiting. Waiting for the right opportunity to come along. The knew when to sit. They knew when to act. This knowledge was fundamental to their success. They knew the value of waiting quietly. It paid handsomely.
No idea. But I tell you who I don’t want. People who’ve been floating around on the front bench for the last two or so decades waiting for their turn.
I also don’t think everything is solved just by having a new leader. The ALP in 2020 need a new message and a new reason to exist. They can’t just lean on not being the Coalition or fights of the past, they need to speak to the modern challenges the country face and demonstrate why they’re important in that discussion. It doesn’t mean losing what they already have or cutting ties with the past entirely, just they need to be a party of 2020s Australia.
Reform of the Senate voting and the subsequent election because the Crossbench would not support any LNP Legislation as a result was the best thing Turnbull did as PM.
I think the time is right to reclaim the connection between unions and labor.
Campaign on industrial relations in respect of job security, minimum conditions such as sick leave.
The Libs use unions as something to beat Labor with. Labor needs to take pride in its previous achievements and sell the idea it is time to give back to workers.
If there was ever a time when people were aware of the negative consequences of the Liberal and Business councils war against workers it’s now.
It’s unfortunate that the sample size is too small to get statistically useful State breakdowns in order to compare the State v National outcomes.
I note I was phone polled on my mobile last week-Wednesday night. They asked specifically about my attitude towards my specifically named Federal Member who is ALP.
Assantdj @ #80 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 9:26 pm
Sally McManus for Canberra!!!!!
The over-riding long-term challenge for us all is going to be the threat to real wages. Real wages have been increasing for 300 years or more. They’re very likely to start to decline now. Covid has shown that can happen.
Climate change will force really massive disruptions to agriculture, which will in turn drive up the real prices of food. Maybe technological improvements will avert that. But on the face of it, higher food prices are coming and lower real wages will follow. As wages start to fall investment in the economy more generally will become much more problematic. As well, we should expect a decline in the human population to commence this century. These factors will impact real incomes. Declining incomes will precipitate declining investment and in turn retarded growth and income into the future. This can become – probably will become – self-fulfilling.
In Australia the LNP are ideologically incapable of registering the significance of these things. This is serious, because they do run the place most of the time. Consequently, we will likely see very repressive economic and political measures from the LNP.
“If there was ever a time when people were aware of the negative consequences of the Liberal and Business councils war against workers it’s now.”
This is what a lot of people cant see.Maybe there is too many that think they are more management/CEO material than a worker on the ground.I have certainly seen this in all the workplaces I have been employed in.
Ahh time for some late night strategy sessions for Albo.
Here’s my small and soone to be ignored contribution.
Ready?
All Albo needs to do to get labor across the line is put himself in the media everyday saying he’d do more that Scomo to help in this situation.
Better tax cuts, better welfare, etc etc. When people ask about how he’ll pay. Once in 100 year event! etc etc never stop saying it.
He should focus on building up Australian Institutions. I was listening to ABC about the Libs selling parts of the AIS. It’s time for Albo to promise to fund Australian sports so we can win the next olympics. etc etc. People gotta have hope. etc etc.
Focus on the institutions
Also Probably time to start tackling the casualisation (sp) of the workforce.
Strategy part two:
After promising everything to anyone. When the liberal government object, call them heartless thugs who only care about sports rorts for their mates. Do this every time they object and try and fit a reminder about sports rorts into the daily attack the liberals press conference. Which should be held every day by a rotating list of plesent to listen to ALP types. Kristina K, and Plibersek jump to mind if only because the libs hate women.
If Albo can’t cut it then Plibersek is the best option I think. If only because Scott next to Chalmers screams Adult next to Child. Where as Plibersek will probably stir up that deep seated hate of women that’s swimming about in the liberal party. The times, they are woke.
Anyhow, in recap. Albo if you’re reading.
Promise everything to everyone. Talk about a government job for every person who wants one, expand the public service because they;ve been doing a great job with all of this. And attack the government for not having a heart and not thanking you for your suggestions everyday.
Yes the media is hostile. Yes the left flank, ala greens are hostile, (though you gotta ask, with 33% it may be time to eat your hat labor and find some common ground for an coalition of the left.). But with all of that. the only strategy should be. Get in the media every day. Demand parliament. Throw Stunts.
If an election were held today, the current actions of your leader would probably loose you seats. So take a risk, there isn’t far to fall.
The ALP should be modeling a path to the lodge very closely off what Abbot did. It was effective and worked.
He’s not.
From the Oz
More than 330,000 retail and construction jobs could disappear by March as the federal government winds back its stimulus measures, says consulting firm McKinsey, which anticipates a “second wave” of unemployment almost as large as the first.
Unlike other sectors such as tourism, where the bulk of jobs have already been lost owing to the direct effects of lockdowns and physical distancing restrictions, retail and construction would suffer from “permanent structural changes” and “business cycle shock”
In total, between 270,000 and 640,000 jobs could be lost between June and March 2021 — on top of the 740,000 lost up until July — as federal government assistance and with it household income and employment fall away, the firm’s analysts say.
This is where the SHIT might hit the fan for the Libs.
Rational Leftist
Good contribution.
I bet you too are thinking, what does Albo spend his weekends doing if he does so little with his weeks.
Not the worst idea I’ve heard.
She’s actually stood out as an effective union leader who doesn’t seem like a careerist suit and isn’t afraid to stand up for what’s right.
south, I apologise – I was just being a smartarse. Your post is actually a really good one.
Although it should be reminded to everybody that we’re just a bunch of politically engaged nobodies venting at each other. Nobody of influence is reading our posts and taking notes.
RL
Yes we are just a small pimple on the arse of life.
Steve,
The circular conversations on this blog reflect the disillusionment of it’s members with the state of current Australia. Everyone who engages in RGR, greens are the enemy conversations is stuck because they are emotionally stunted by Abbot, the libs, the many failings and corruption of the press and the selfish choices of their fellow Australians.
Anyway, I think it’d be great if a fighter would throw a punch, better even if it could land on the opponent for once.
The more debt the higher your ratings?
Come on Alan Jones where are you? we need you now?
Where are you like where you were when Mr Rudd put us into debt at a measly $153 billion?
Labor debt-BAD
Liberal debt-GREAT
according to the Liberal MSM.Spin.Spin.Spin.
Proves the punters back any old shit the Libs throw up on behalf of the Murdoch press.
OK another third(6) glass of wine comment here from me so please be gentle.
Just watched the second F1 British GP. Ricciardo had a bad race.
Hopefully it remains so but how long till a major player politically gets the plague?
What if SFM?
What about Albo?
Heaven forbid Dutton?
Trump?
Andrews?
Murdoch?
A bit negative I agree, but what would the consequences be politically?
I sincerely hope not one extra person succumbs to Covid19, it is a terrible virus with unknown long term effects but what we know so far it does not look good, blood clots, cognitive decline etc.
Dutton had it early on.Had to isolate for 2 weeks. Fuck all happened.Same as Johnson in UK.
David Leith,
An interesting observation re HK. Quiet observation is underrated.
south says:
Sunday, August 9, 2020 at 11:41 pm
Ahh time for some late night strategy sessions for Albo.
Here’s my small and soone to be ignored contribution.
Yes. You will be ignored. There is just one theme in politics now and that is covid. You have completely missed it. Anyone who thinks that Albo can make ground by politicising a pandemic is seriously misguided. There is just one thing for Labor to do….stay out of trouble. The government are charged with responding to the pandemic. If they succeed they will attract their reward from the public. And if they mess it up they will be in trouble too. There’s nothing Labor should be doing to make the government’s task more difficult than it already is….because that will undermine public cooperation, and that will make the pandemic worse, and that will cost lives and hurt the economy. So Labor have to hasten slowly. This is not hard to understand. But it takes discipline and respect for the gravity of the public health situation.
A well known long term PM once opinioned that nobody wanted to see house prices fall.
You may also add superannuation balances.
You may also add investment portfolios.
For that matter, many don’t mind if their debt balances don’t fall.
But woe betide any leader suggesting the illusion of one’s
wealth or prospects are at risk.
The LNP and their bevy of servile hacks promise and promise and still promise despite the reality.
Enough voters have invested heavily in these promises.
Nothing has changed, not even Covid 19, to cause doubt as to the illusion of wealth.
The present government just have their fingers crossed a little more tightly than their predecessors.
The Australian way. Keep playing the poker machine of life and eventually walk away with nothing.
That’s the reality.
The latest poll says business as usual.
steve davis says:
Sunday, August 9, 2020 at 10:58 pm
Non
I presume the same voter will be expecting the Libs to create jobs again after the crisis is over and by the sound of it others will too. The sad thing is that most jobs are only going to be in service industries which are lower paid and the belief in the myth that govt create jobs is a joke.
————————–
Steve
It is an urban myth that most jobs in the service sector are low paid with the exception being Hospitality and Retail.