What’s next

Not much to report, except that a star is born in Tasmania (maybe), and Northern Territory’s election is looming ever closer.

A new thread is wanted, but for all that’s happening in the world right now, there is not a lot of Australian electoral news for me to hang one on right now – there are no polls this week, and there is nothing to report on the preselection front. However:

• Following former newsreader Jo Palmer’s apparent success in gaining the Launceston region state upper house seat of Rosevears (corresponding with the western end of Bass) for the Liberals at Saturday’s elections, The Mercury reports “political watchers in Canberra are now tracking Ms Palmer’s campaign with interest, with some considering how they could lure their likely new star MP to Canberra”. Both of the elections on Saturday appear to have resulted in seats passing from independents to the major parties, with Palmer taking a vacant seat and Labor’s Bastian Seidel unseating Robert Armstrong in Huon at the southern edge of Hobart (part of the federal and state lower house division of Franklin). This would leave the chamber with five Labor members, three Liberals and seven independents – the first time in its history that the chamber has not had an independent majority.

• I have had too little to say about the Northern Territory election, which will be held in three Saturdays’ time. This will come to an end when I publish my comprehensive guide to the election, which I will hopefully do later today.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,664 comments on “What’s next”

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  1. Morrison and his treasurer are under pressure from business, ministers and backbenchers and right wing players in Victoria to decouple from Andrews and the Victorian government and ramp up the attacks. Apparently a good political move. Good for the optics etc.

    However, I would suggest with a number of enquires set up or ready to report regarding Ruby Princess, aged care and quarantine protocols the attacks may prove to be ill considered as the next weeks and months unfold.

    Andrews is being set up to take all the blame. To his credit he has put his hand up and accepted full responsibility. If, or when, adverse findings are made against the Commonwealth in any of the upcoming investigations will Morrison do the same ? Scott has set the accountability bar for Andrews. Will he accept the same ?

    I think Morrison has jumped in too quickly as a result of pressure from a number of directions. Putting full blame on Andrews now may appear to be a good political move by some on the conservative side but over time may well play out to be a bad decision.

    We shall see what happens.

  2. Barney: “From what I’ve read there were multiple Departments involved in setting up the quarantine facilities.”

    It does sound like it. And lack of clear responsibility is a key ingredient in the recipe for any major bureaucratic stuff-up.

    Another key ingredient is trying to use a single program to achieve multiple, unrelated objectives, and this might also be present in this case, if – as has been suggested, but I am yet to be totally convinced – one of the reasons for choosing to use private security firms was to create new employment opportunities for vulnerable groups.

  3. The pandemic in Victoria is a dream come true for the Liberals. They have the chance now to take Labor to pieces. They will make the most of it. There is a ruthless logic to the pandemic. If you’re in charge and get the blame when things go wrong, you will suffer the electoral consequences. This applies to Andrews in the same way that it applies to Trump. Partisan allegiance will not save either of them. Andrew only hope is the pandemic actually does disappear in response to the measures imposed. If that doesn’t happen he will become unelectable. The Liberals will be hoping for the worst.

  4. poroti:

    He was caught by William commenting under different screen names. A clear breach of his guidelines for commenting.

  5. poroti: “What happened with nath ?”

    WB revealed that one of the two posters named Michael on this forum (I can’t remember if it was the one with a capital “M” or the one with a small “m”) had the same IP address as nath. And nath confessed that this was indeed his sock puppet. And WB growled at him and he withdrew from the forum (and was then possibly blocked by WB, I’m not sure about that bit).

  6. First they came for trolls, and I said nothing. For I was not a troll.
    Then they came for sockpuppets, and I said nothing. For I was not a sockpuppet.
    Then they came for the…..

  7. Nowhere have I read that Nath has been banned by William.

    As I see it, he has chosen to withdraw himself, after his trolling was revealed. His presence or absence here is to me a matter of indifference.

    He is not a victim of anything except his own arrogant stupidity and perfidity.

  8. The problem now is, how could anyone, except those with a vested interest in doing so, take nath seriously if he did decide to come back? You couldn’t trust him to say anything that resembled the truth.

  9. sprocket_ “First they came for trolls, and I said nothing. For I was not a troll.
    Then they came for sockpuppets, and I said nothing. For I was not a sockpuppet.”

    But you could be a sprock puppet.

  10. C@tmomma: “The problem now is, how could anyone, except those with a vested interest in doing so, take nath seriously if he did decide to come back? You couldn’t trust him to say anything that resembled the truth.”

    You can’t trust anyone on here to be telling the truth. For example, I might come across as a slightly right-leaning ageing white Tasmanian but I am actually a 25 year old transwoman Asian-American from Portland who posts on here in between nightly appearances in the Wall of Moms.

  11. meher baba @ #2365 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 11:08 am

    C@tmomma: “The problem now is, how could anyone, except those with a vested interest in doing so, take nath seriously if he did decide to come back? You couldn’t trust him to say anything that resembled the truth.”

    You can’t trust anyone on here to be telling the truth. For example, I might come across as a slightly right-leaning ageing white Tasmanian but I am actually a 25 year old transwoman Asian-American from Portland who posts on here in between nightly appearances in the Wall of Moms.

    Then how do you explain the broad Aussie accent MB?

  12. For example, I might come across as a slightly right-leaning ageing white Tasmanian but I am actually a 25 year old transwoman Asian-American from Portland who posts on here in between nightly appearances in the Wall of Moms.

    I KNEW it!!

  13. Buce: “Mikakos pulling a Peter Beattie on Twitter. Be interesting to see if it works.”

    I don’t recall Peter Beattie ever going on and on about democracy in ancient Athens.

  14. And there is nothing wrong with that, MB, because you have now given everyone fair warning of your actual proclivities.

    It was always very obvious to me, in any case, however.

  15. Spray: “Then how do you explain the broad Aussie accent MB?”

    I’m extremely culturally diverse: a one woman melting pot.

  16. ————
    Some people may not be aware, but hotel quarantine is also being used by health workers exposed to virus.
    ————
    Is that right? Wouldn’t it be Hotel Self isolation? I know of one doctor at nRah who hired a campervan and parked it outside his house during the worst of it.

  17. sprocket_ @ #2360 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 11:01 am

    First they came for trolls, and I said nothing. For I was not a troll.
    Then they came for sockpuppets, and I said nothing. For I was not a sockpuppet.
    Then they came for the…..

    No one came for him, except if you characterise Mr Bowe calling out his duplicity, ‘coming for’ nath. He simply slunk away after he had been caught red-handed, pretending to be two different and discrete commenters.

    Though there is a debate to be had over whether someone who gets caught stealing from the collection plate in church should be allowed to go free for God to exact his retribution, or be charged with theft and let the law decide his fate. As far as I can see the Catholic church calls in Mr Plod to deal with the thief, even though they believe in God. Anyway, Mr Bowe is god here and it’s his way or the highway, his house, his rules. Whether you wish to equate that with the pogroms or not.

  18. Bennelong Lurker says:
    Sunday, August 9, 2020 at 11:10 am

    “Could someone who understands these matters better than I, explain why Professor Gigi Foster would be appearing as a witness at this committee?”

    Strange as it may seem there are economic impacts from the decisions made and an economist may have some insight into those impacts.

    Just because you disagree with someone doesn’t mean that they should be banned from public hearings or that they are wrong.

  19. ————
    Ten in NSW today. One in HQ, so let’s call it single figures for the second day in a row.
    Good news (for now).
    ————
    What would it take to go from averaging 10 a day to averaging less than 1?

    What would it take to go from averaging 10 a day to 400?

  20. Bennelong Lurker @ #2368 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 11:10 am

    https://parliament.vic.gov.au/images/stories/committees/paec/COVID-19_Inquiry/Hearing_schedule/Round_2_Hearing_Schedule.pdf

    Could someone who understands these matters better than I, explain why Professor Gigi Foster would be appearing as a witness at this committee?

    Because she’s an aggressive promoter of her views who searches for any and every forum in which to propound them and who uses her qualifications as a Trojan Horse to get them heard.

  21. Simon Katich @ #2380 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 11:18 am

    ————
    Ten in NSW today. One in HQ, so let’s call it single figures for the second day in a row.
    Good news (for now).
    ————
    What would it take to go from averaging 10 a day to averaging less than 1?

    What would it take to go from averaging 10 a day to 400?

    That’s the million-dollar question SK. Closing pubs and clubs for a few weeks would help.

  22. Mrs Sprocket’s alma mater…

    ‘Our Lady of Mercy College, Parramatta, will be closed for on-site learning on Monday and cleaning and contact tracing is being undertaken, after a student tested positive for Covid-19.’

  23. exponentially.
    A healthcare worker in the emergency department of a Sydney hospital has tested positive to COVID-19.

    NSW Health confirmed other hospital staff who had contact with the person have been identified and told to self-isolate for 14 days.

    Meanwhile, two Sydney schools have been forced to close following positive cases.

    It comes after Premier Gladys Berejiklian issued a warning to NSW residents that the next few weeks are “absolutely critical”.

    In other news, one of the world’s major success stories of the pandemic has found itself in the midst of a mystery surge of cases and deaths.

    https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/coronavirus-australia-live-victoria-qld-nsw-covid19-updates/live-coverage/6112b8febb0cf51b6b5a73b74257af04

  24. ————
    Gladys is doing a great job keeping those figures to around 10 per day.
    ————
    It is a good number if maintained. Gotta be stressful tho. A constant threat.

    You would think it would be easier for her if one of her biggest donors and a powerful lobby group weren’t in her ear every hour.

  25. Would be interesting to do a quick survey on here to see whether people actually WANT to see the NSW case numbers come down?

  26. Steve777 @ #2262 Sunday, August 9th, 2020 – 9:04 am

    Bright and sunny in Sydney with another 35-50 mm of rain forecast for later. There have been falls up to 150 mm on the NSW South Coast and hinterland.

    150mm? Bah! Barely enough to bother getting out the umbrella!

    We had 350mm two weeks ago, and have had 250mm just in the last 2 days. We are expecting another 100mm before this rain eases.

    Climate change? What climate change?

  27. Commenting on a possible disaster and identifying the risk factors does not indicate a desire that the disaster occur.

  28. Spray,

    It’s in everyone’s benefit cases anywhere remain controlled and community transmission eliminated. What worries me about NSW is that while contact tracing is doing really well it feels like there’s a lot of wishful thinking that further action doesn’t have to be taken.

    New South Welshers might feel different but stories of people with coronavirus visiting heaps of restaurants, churches, pubs etc aren’t all that encouraging.

  29. Spray. I do. Will it happen by chance or action?

    Buce has a good argument. At what cost? My point is; one needs to factor in the risk of 10-20 becoming 400-1000.

    I might be wrong, maybe 10-20 isn’t as fine a balancing act (with a healthy dose of luck) but a number that you’d expect from the current covid settings.

  30. Spray: “Would be interesting to do a quick survey on here to see whether people actually WANT to see the NSW case numbers come down?”

    Don’t go there.

  31. Should sock puppets be banned or forced to endure endless humiliation for the pathetic childishness of their actions and being exposed as utterly bereft of authenticity.

    Or, more importantly, how damn good is my sourdough this morning!

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