What’s next

Not much to report, except that a star is born in Tasmania (maybe), and Northern Territory’s election is looming ever closer.

A new thread is wanted, but for all that’s happening in the world right now, there is not a lot of Australian electoral news for me to hang one on right now – there are no polls this week, and there is nothing to report on the preselection front. However:

• Following former newsreader Jo Palmer’s apparent success in gaining the Launceston region state upper house seat of Rosevears (corresponding with the western end of Bass) for the Liberals at Saturday’s elections, The Mercury reports “political watchers in Canberra are now tracking Ms Palmer’s campaign with interest, with some considering how they could lure their likely new star MP to Canberra”. Both of the elections on Saturday appear to have resulted in seats passing from independents to the major parties, with Palmer taking a vacant seat and Labor’s Bastian Seidel unseating Robert Armstrong in Huon at the southern edge of Hobart (part of the federal and state lower house division of Franklin). This would leave the chamber with five Labor members, three Liberals and seven independents – the first time in its history that the chamber has not had an independent majority.

• I have had too little to say about the Northern Territory election, which will be held in three Saturdays’ time. This will come to an end when I publish my comprehensive guide to the election, which I will hopefully do later today.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,664 comments on “What’s next”

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  1. Just on a point of order about last night, all I did was make a complaint about nath’s call for GG to be dropped down a mineshaft and killed.

    You won’t see nath’s post, because his comment was immediately deleted, presumably by William. I then immediately edited my complaint, deleting a quotation of nath’s post that it had included. The incident was over in about a minute from start to finish, or so it seemed. Maybe it was a couple of minutes.

    But nath got the reaction he wanted. Our resident Holy Person, Guytaur, got stuck into not – as you might expect – nath’s call for GG to be disposed of down a mineshaft, but me for using the phrase “Cancel Culture”. He referred me to some bloggers (whom I’ve never heard of, but they’re presumably American) who believe murdering black people in custody and bashing gay people is OK, insinuating that I might be found guilty of the same beliefs as them if I continued to use the phrase “Cancel Culture”.

    Then William started out on a bender of condemnation, again not of nath – who had wisely disappeared for the night after seeding trouble once again, and again without the slightest censure (except to have his “mineshaft” comment discreetly deleted) – but of me for using the phrase “Cancel Culture”.

    There was also something about a post I made in August 2019, a year ago, which has caused Pegasus to have manufactured, recurrent fits of the vapours whenever she’s logically cornered, playing this blog like a Stradivarius. You’d think she was Joan of Arc from the way William described her contributions, which are in fact more “cut-and-paste” than “cutting”.

    Once again nath was the winner. I dips me lid to him. He’d called for the death of another poster, seen it discreetly airbrushed from history, and then got the person who complained about it attacked for complaining, not only by our chief (but self-appointed) moral and language invigilator, but also by the management.

    Nath openly used the c-word here the other night, and again excuses were made for him by the same management, followed (I hope, but didn’t check) by another discreet deletion and use of the airbrush.

    As a result I challenge anyone here to try to get the c-word past moderation in future, as it now seems to be conditionally tolerated. As long as your name’s “nath”, and you don’t call another poster a c**t, apparently its use fine and dandy. Good luck with that.

    But don’t ever refer to “Cancel Culture”. That’ll bring the wrath of God down upon you. You could call it PB’s new “CC-word”.

  3. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 10:12 am
    Briefly and Trump.

    Scrap the UN refugee convention.

    The Convention has done not the slightest bit of good in Australia since the 1970s. It is obsolete….as the degradations of Manus and Nauru clearly demonstrate. These degradations were co-authored by the Greens, who saw to it with the LNP that the Convention would be used to incarcerate refugees and hold them up for public humiliation and exemplary punishment. Had Australia not been a signatory to the Convention the Malaysia solution would likely have proceeded. That would have been a life-saving advance.

  5. Bushfire Bill says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 10:26 am
    ________________________
    Translation: In 9 tedious paragraphs its all about BB.

  6. NonSequitur says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 10:17 am

    “the plurality that used to exist from early in the 20th century until the rise of Howard”?

    What about the DLP?

    What about the Australian Democrats?

  9. guytaur @ #40 Wednesday, August 5th, 2020 – 7:02 am

    Briefly

    You troll big time. You are still trying to pretend the Greens are Thatcherites.

    You cannot discuss an issue without finding a way to say the existence of the a Greens is toxic.

    Your posts do nothing to aid in rational discussion of issues.

    Why do you bother? Briefly, or whatever npm-de-plume he assumes to avoid AR’s block function,

    Greensborough Growler @ #85 Wednesday, August 5th, 2020 – 8:03 am

    At the recent by-election which is the only real life polling that matters, the Greens shed 35% of their Primary vote. Hardly a clarion call of hope for future seats glory for the Greens.

    Utter fucking bullshit plucked out of Greensborough Groveller’s arse.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Eden-Monaro_by-election

    Greens PV 5.67% (down 3.11%)
    ALP PV 35.89% (down 3,28%).

    Labor had a bigger drop in PV than the Greens did.

    The Groveller has obviously got a hide as thick as his head to show up on here pontificating (word used advisedly) after the bucketload of shit the site owner dumped on him last night.

  10. sprocket_ says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 10:21 am

    “Victoria is set to record 725 new cases of COVID-19 today”

    Would it be fair to suggest that the lock down doesn’t appear to be having the effect that is intended?

  11. “For ammonium nitrate to go bang you have to mix it with diesel” yep I was wondering how this would have occurred accidentally on a large enough scale. Leakage of enough diesel to make 2700 tonnes of fertilizer into viable ANFO seems implausible to me. Then an explosion is needed to set the ANFO off. A fire does not do it so I guess that’s where the fireworks came in.
    (Yes maybe they were “lucky” and not all the AN was viable..)

  12. Lars Von Trier @ #100 Wednesday, August 5th, 2020 – 10:26 am

    Briefly was a whaler in his professional life?

    Did you read Douglas and Milko’s very fine contribution last night?

    Douglas and Milko (Block)
    Wednesday, August 5th, 2020 – 2:06 am
    Comment #1952
    And before I do finally turn in, I think C@tMomma is being bullied because of her gender.

    She is a very genuine poster, who contributed valuable information to this blog.

    C@t has not said anything more controversial than any number of other posters here, but she is being “re-educated” by a few on the blog.

    I find their posts to C@t demeaning and derogatory, and wonder why they feel the need to “re-educate” a woman on this blog, when there are many men who post similar sentiments to C@t, but who are not treated similarly.

    Remember guys, you are complaining about how Pegasus was treated differently to male posters, and I will not disagree, but you are ignoring what is happening to C@t, which contain the same level of abuse.

    Once again – think before you make these ad hominem posts – you are probably convinced you are not selectively targeting females, but William’s data about women being chased off / choosing to leave this blog are telling a story.

    You might think that you’re putting one over on me but you are not. I have exerted self-control. No one controls me.

  13. C@tmomma @ #14 Wednesday, August 5th, 2020 – 7:43 am

    Pegasus is not the innocent blog saint that the Defenders of Pegasus are trying to make her out to be. She was/is as divisive a character as I am. No more, and certainly no less. She was eminently capable of woman on woman misogyny if you didn’t agree with her.

    All of that was much better left behind on the other thread. It’s highly revisionist. Ironic that someone who gets routinely derided for copy/pasting external articles without ever contributing any original commentary was apparently also some notorious master of nasty personal attacks and snark. It literally can’t be both at once.

    C@t has not said anything more controversial than any number of other posters here, but she is being “re-educated” by a few on the blog.

    Not sure if that’s also revisionist, but certainly not being “more controversial than any number of other posters” is a pretty low bar to clear around here.

    NonSequitur @ #35 Wednesday, August 5th, 2020 – 8:50 am

    Anyone would think from a brief reading on this theme that the bludger’s salon is dominated by Labor voices attempting to troll the dear Greens. This, of course, is absolute crap. The Greenists troll here as everywhere 24/7.

    1. Says Labor supporters don’t troll the Greens here.
    2. Trolls the Greens here.

    Therefore NonSequitur is not a Labor supporter.
    QED.
    🙂

  14. poroti says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 10:32 am

    “He Was Detained for 7 Years.”

    Detained as in being able to go to the beach, start a business, travel internationally.

    It wasn’t exactly Rikers.

  16. Bucephalus says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 10:33 am
    sprocket_ says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 10:21 am

    “Victoria is set to record 725 new cases of COVID-19 today”

    Would it be fair to suggest that the lock down doesn’t appear to be having the effect that is intended?

    ___________________________________

    No, but it would be fair to say that you have no effing idea of lead times and incubation periods in the spread of coronavirus.

    What is it about right wing warriors that they really really really have no idea of science, except where it can be harnessed to financial profit, and are damned proud of it?

  18. Lizzie @ #102 Wednesday, August 5th, 2020 – 8:27 am

    Bill Shorten is right. Why cobble together a separate arrangement for child care businesses? Just more paperwork.

    That’s a major problem in the fed Government’s response to stimulus measures, that over complicate things and use the fine print to limit what often at first viewing seems a pretty good idea.

    Basically they fail the KISS test!

  21. Victoria has recorded a daily increase in coronavirus cases of 725 cases on Wednesday, eclipsing last Thursday’s record of 723.

  23. guytaursays:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 10:31 am
    Briefly

    Thanks for the confirmation. You and Trump on the same page.

    See what I mean? He’s STILL at it.

    If anyone enables Trump it’s the ideologues and dogmatists who go around continually using inappropriate, absolutist labels against others. It only drives people towards Trump even further, not away from him. They get sick of every word they use or thought they have (or have ever had, sometime going back decades) adversely misconstrued.

    Jesus was only joking when he said “If you’re not with me, you’re against me.” And Guytaur’s no Jesus.

  24. TPOF @ #115 Wednesday, August 5th, 2020 – 10:39 am

    Bucephalus says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 10:33 am
    sprocket_ says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 10:21 am

    “Victoria is set to record 725 new cases of COVID-19 today”

    Would it be fair to suggest that the lock down doesn’t appear to be having the effect that is intended?

    ___________________________________

    No, but it would be fair to say that you have no effing idea of lead times and incubation periods in the spread of coronavirus.

    What is it about right wing warriors that they really really really have no idea of science, except where it can be harnessed to financial profit, and are damned proud of it?

    Not to mention the fact that ~20000 lives have been saved by the lockdown in Victoria. But Buce would rather they have died so that businesses could continue to coin it. Not that he ever complains about the hard lockdown that WA put in place and which he is now benefiting from.

  27. Danama

    3.11/8.78 x 100 = 35.42%

    3.28/39.17 x 100 = 8.37%

    So, the Greens lost 4.23 times the amount the ALP lost in relative terms. That’s not good.

  28. BB

    I really appreciate your posts when they dont have anything to do with other posters.

    For eg. Your latest observations on Morrison and the general tenure of this pandemic have been great.

    More of that and less of the other is greatly appreciated

  31. I’ll say it one mire time:

    Ammonium Nitrate does not need to be mixed with diesel or anything else in order to explode when ignited.

  32. Well, the message is finally getting through in good old Woy Woy. There was a LOT more people wearing masks today when I went down this morning to do the weekly shop. There were some elderly men (looking like aging AC/DC fans) who didn’t give a toss about masks, hand sanitiser or social distancing, and there was a crazy guy just standing in the middle of the shopping centre waving his arms around and speaking to himself, sans mask, however, other than that, even though NSW and certainly not Regional NSW have had masks mandated, people are starting to do the right thing. If complaining about them fogging up their glasses. 🙂

  35. Buce, I read on Andrew Bolt’s article that new infections recorded are caused by the activity the day before, like touching your mask all the time.

  37. One thing I don’t do is whine to management about something someone has said about me. I either respond in kind or just ignore it. And BB, you create lies with your posts again. I did not use the c word against another poster, it was in a meme and was actually directed at myself. Some accuracy would aid your cause.

    Also, I did not suggest that GG be thrown anywhere, I was clearly talking about misadventure.

  38. Briefly, or whatever nom-de-plume he assumes to avoid AR’s block function

    Oh, is that why he does it!?! That’s rather vain then.

  41. I didn’t think William could’ve made it any clearer about what he thinks of both Bushpig Bill and the Greensborough Groveller, but depsite that, both of them have the hide to show up on here this morning with comments of the type that drove him to conclude this blog would be a better place without them.

  42. Okay, nath, if you want to be factual then I objected to you and LvT discussing me 2 nights ago when I wasn’t on the blog and patting yourselves on the back for having got me under control. Nothing to do with a bit of light-hearted banter between you and I. That is what I think Douglas and Milko was referring to. I’d appreciate it if you didn’t do that any more.

  43. Before the big explosion, when it was just a bad fire, it appeared something was popping off rapidly, out in the open, like fire crackers. I heard that much of the ammonium nitrate in the warehouse had been confiscated. Was there also confiscated ammunition of some type stored there?

  44. C@tmommasays:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 10:56 am
    Okay, nath, if you want to be factual then I objected to you and LvT discussing me 2 nights ago when I wasn’t on the blog and patting yourselves on the back for having got me under control. Nothing to do with a bit of light-hearted banter between you and I. That is what I think Douglas and Milko was referring to. I’d appreciate it if you didn’t do that any more.
    ________________
    Fine. But you must remember that after I made that comment you said you were re-educating me and we swapped versions of the Long and Winding road. The whole thing seemed rather jovial until D&M found issue with my comment.

  45. It will be interesting to see which domestic routes Virgin will dump. I would suggest that a number of regional towns and communities around the country will be deemed non profitable by Virgin and thus will be left either with one carrier (which would then set fares as it wants in the absence of competition ) or nothing.

  46. Out of his own mouth… nath writes:

    I did not use the c word against another poster, it was in a meme and was actually directed at myself. Some accuracy would aid your cause.

    Thanks for the confirmation and your weasely post facto justification. It was exactly as I described it, so no lie at all.

    Let’s see you describe yourself that way again nath, here and now, in the daytime hours.

    I’m sure everyone will support you, and maybe even agree with you for once.

  47. Bushfire Bill says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 10:56 am

    “Before the big explosion, when it was just a bad fire, it appeared something was popping off rapidly, out in the open, like fire crackers”

    Yes, the initial fire was fireworks. You can see them going off in the initial smoke column. That fire caused the 2,750 tonnes of Ammonium Nitrate to ignite and explode.

  48. I thought we were having good conversations c@t. I don’t know where control comes into it.

    You’ve still got your views – and I have mine.

    What more is there to say?

  49. Bucephalus @10:33. “Would it be fair to suggest that the lock down doesn’t appear to be having the effect that is intended?”

    No, the Stage 4 restrictions were only introduced a few days ago, so it’s too early to say.

    The numbers jump around from day to day, the trend is important and that will become obvious over the next week or two.

  50. Your pathetic attempts to ban me are laughable. I have apologised to William for the meme and he has seemingly accepted it. Your efforts to get me to break the rules are piss poor.

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