What’s next

Not much to report, except that a star is born in Tasmania (maybe), and Northern Territory’s election is looming ever closer.

A new thread is wanted, but for all that’s happening in the world right now, there is not a lot of Australian electoral news for me to hang one on right now – there are no polls this week, and there is nothing to report on the preselection front. However:

• Following former newsreader Jo Palmer’s apparent success in gaining the Launceston region state upper house seat of Rosevears (corresponding with the western end of Bass) for the Liberals at Saturday’s elections, The Mercury reports “political watchers in Canberra are now tracking Ms Palmer’s campaign with interest, with some considering how they could lure their likely new star MP to Canberra”. Both of the elections on Saturday appear to have resulted in seats passing from independents to the major parties, with Palmer taking a vacant seat and Labor’s Bastian Seidel unseating Robert Armstrong in Huon at the southern edge of Hobart (part of the federal and state lower house division of Franklin). This would leave the chamber with five Labor members, three Liberals and seven independents – the first time in its history that the chamber has not had an independent majority.

• I have had too little to say about the Northern Territory election, which will be held in three Saturdays’ time. This will come to an end when I publish my comprehensive guide to the election, which I will hopefully do later today.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,664 comments on “What’s next”

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  1. rhwombat (Block)
    Wednesday, August 5th, 2020 – 9:11 am
    Comment #46

    For you I make this special price – Five Dollars Only ($5) will get you one of these self sticking images for your very own.

    Price includes postage. 🖃

  2. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 9:02 am
    Briefly

    You troll big time. You are still trying to pretend the Greens are Thatcherites.

    You cannot discuss an issue without finding a way to say the existence of the a Greens is toxic.

    Your posts do nothing to aid in rational discussion of issues.

    There is one issue I think should be discussed. It is historically important in the understanding of Australian politics. That issue is the decline in the Labor plurality over the last 25 years. There are several factors that contribute to this. The result of this development is that the anti-Labor parties between them gather 2/3 primary votes. This is a psephology blog. In what way is it misplaced to canvass that matter here?

    You tout for an anti-Labor party. Your posts are replete with Labor-hostile memes. They’re seldom worth replying to, but if they do attract a response, in what possible way is that trolling. Rather, it shows that your trolling occasionally succeeds.

  3. Barney

    Wrong. Do that and you are on the road to being China. That’s their argument.

    In a Liberal Democracy we understand that government has to be restricted. That includes when there is a pandemic happening.

    Trump is showing why it’s very important to be able to protest in a pandemic.

    These things can be done. The idiots that are flouting healthcare measures for ideological reasons not for holding politicians accountable for their actions do deserve punishment. That’s why we have fines.

    That’s a very big deterrent to protest.

    In the case of this Libertarian a charge of attempted manslaughter should cover it without having to tear down our whole human rights edifice to punish one person.

  4. Briefly

    Your trolling has led to you saying the Greens are Thatcher acolytes.

    Says everything about how you do propaganda and not facts.

    I hope you get paid for your posts as you keep destroying discussion of issues and turning it into the Greens are toxic.
    They say they are for it means they are working to elect the Liberals.

    This rhetoric from you is toxic to discussion of issues.

  5. Your posts like boerwar’s are obsessive briefly.

    Other than Greens are damaging to Labor and because they damage Labor they are aligned to the Liberals – what else do you have to say or contribute?

    I get thats your view but I don’t think you need to repeat ad nauseam every day.

  6. guytaur @ #53 Wednesday, August 5th, 2020 – 7:24 am

    Barney

    Wrong. Do that and you are on the rip-off to being China. That’s their argument.

    In a Liberal Democracy we understand that government has to be restricted. That includes when there is a pandemic happening.

    Trump is showing why it’s very important to be able to protest in a pandemic.

    These things can be done. The idiots that are flouting healthcare measures for ideological reasons not for holding politicians accountable for their actions do deserve punishment. That’s why we have fines.

    That’s a very big deterrent to protest.

    In the case of this Libertarian a charge of attempted manslaughter should cover it without having to tear down our whole human rights edifice to punish one person.

    ???

    As random as ever! 🙂

  7. rednksays: Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 9:33 am

    For ammonium nitrate to go bang you have to mix it with diesel, perhaps fuel leakage and ammonium nitrate? It is a better story than fire crackers.

    https://www.theage.com.au/world/middle-east/explosion-rocks-lebanese-capital-beirut-20200805-p55il5.html

    ******************************************************

    BREAKING : #Trump says Explosion in Beirut #Lebanon was an *Attack* .

    “I’ve met with some of our great Generals and they just seem to feel that it was [an attack].” “They seem to think it was an attack…it was a bomb of some kind, yes.”

  8. Barney

    Nothing random about understanding what a Liberal Democracy is.

    Libertarians are closet anarchists who don’t have the guts to admit they want the anarchy of complete individual freedom.

    As you can see I have not moved away from my point about balance.

  9. Queensland border closure
    So to update you on that, Queensland is shutting its border to the rest of the east coast from 1am August 8.

    Victoria is already barred.

    From Saturday, you can not enter Queensland if you are from NSW or the ACT.

    While the ACT has no cases of Covid-19, the deputy premier says there is evidence people from NSW hotspots are flying into Queensland from Canberra.

    The border closure will be reviewed at the end of the month.

    There are no problems leaving Queensland to return to the ACT or NSW

  10. Looks like the Fireman will be returned in Fong Lim.

    Malcolm Mackerras has predicted the seat will go to Labor. He says 14 out of 25 seats to Labor and 9 seats to CLP and Mills and one other independent.

  11. Much Thanks BK for todays reports.

    With respect to Boerwar, I could be mistaken, but I do recall him making a reference to illness in the family.

    In any event, Qld reshutting their borders indicates that they are not confident with the situation in NSW.

  12. NSW has been tracking very well to date.

    But yet again the figures relating to hospitalization and ICU patients is at odds with the general figures.
    17 in hospital. 6 in ICU. This from only 255 active cases.

  13. I should add that these figures cant be compared to Victoria.
    We have a shit show in aged care. Many deaths so far as a result, as well as the amount of people in hospital and in ICU. The current situation in Victoria is very sobering.

  14. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 9:27 am
    Briefly

    Your trolling has led to you saying the Greens are Thatcher acolytes.

    If you insist. The Greens are copying Thatcher’s political techniques….and for the same basic purpose: to gain power. The Greens are every bit as ruthless as Thatcher, Howard, Abbott and Morrison. True story. In each case this has involved dividing and exploiting working people.

    The results from the viewpoint of working people are the same.

  15. BK

    Jonathan Swan has made a name for himself with that interview. Many commentators in the US are saying that it is the best interview of Trump to date.

  16. “In any event, Qld reshutting their borders indicates that they are not confident with the situation in NSW.”

    ***

    The way it’s going I won’t be going to Qld at all this year, which is unusual considering I live only about 20 mins south of the border. The local economy here just took another big hit with that news though. In the absence of international tourists all the little businesses that rely on tourism would have been counting the days until the Queenslander weekenders started coming back.

  17. In the sense that the Greens add their voices to campaigns against Democratic candidates in the US election, it’s fair to say they are also Trumpy. So they are not only Thatcherite in their Australian political play-making. They are Trumpy. They are Thatcherite. They played tag with Tony Abbott, Barnaby Joyce and Nick Minchin. They are hostile to the interests and instruments of working people everywhere.

  18. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 9:50 am
    Briefly

    True story. You are wrong about the Greens.

    They are a pro union party.

    This is a deception. When the chips are down the Greens work for the defeat of the party of the unions. They are faking it. They do not give a toss about working people. They are pro-union in the way the LNP is pro-environment. This is all about lip service.

  19. Re Firefox @9:52 “The way it’s going I won’t be going to Qld at all this year, which is unusual considering I live only about 20 mins south of the border. The local economy here just took another big hit with that news though. In the absence of international tourists all the little businesses that rely on tourism would have been counting the days until the Queenslander weekenders started coming back”

    Sounds like the Tweed Coast (Kingscliff, etc). That area should promote itself to Sydneysiders and others in NSW as an alternative to the Gold Coast. Same climate, beautiful hinterland, nice long sandy beaches, warm water but fewer crowds and high-rise.

  20. Briefly is right in one respect. The Greens are an existential threat to the ALP. This will only become more apparent as more seats at state and federal level return Greens members.

  21. There is common thread amongst those who believe that the reaction by govts to this pandemic is over the top.

    In a nutshell………..
    Shutting down schools and economies are far more damaging than allowing people to contract covid.
    Based on fact that mainly older people die as a result.
    Or those with co morbidities.
    They make comparisons to the flu and other diseases that people generally die from.

    They generally fail to take into consideration that if nations had merely continued with business as usual from the get go, we would be dealing with a humanitarian and economic disaster.

    They also fail to take into consideration that for many who suffer from covid, take months to recover strength and wellness.

    The media really needs to step up educating the public in this space.

  22. “In the sense that the Greens add their voices to campaigns against Democratic candidates in the US election, it’s fair to say they are also Trumpy.”

    ***

    Senator Sanders is the anti-Trump. The reality is that you are far closer to Trump’s position than someone like him or I will ever be. Biden is far closer to Trump’s position than any of the other Dems that ran, maybe with the exception of Bloomberg. They all share a support for America’s brand of rampant capitalism.

  23. I was living in the UK while Thatcher’s campaign against the miners was in full swing. It was a remarkably bitter episode and it changed the UK. It worked for Thatcher. She defeated the unions and the workers. The legacy includes pro-Brexit sentiments in the post-industrial null-economies of the former coalfields.

    The Greens campaign against coal mining with the same intents in mind. To defeat working people, their unions and their party. It has worked for them.

  24. At the recent by-election which is the only real life polling that matters, the Greens shed 35% of their Primary vote. Hardly a clarion call of hope for future seats glory for the Greens.

  25. Firefox says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 10:02 am
    “In the sense that the Greens add their voices to campaigns against Democratic candidates in the US election, it’s fair to say they are also Trumpy.”

    ***

    Senator Sanders is the anti-Trump. The reality is that you are far closer to Trump’s position than someone like him or I will ever be.

    You know fuck all about me. You’re just another know-it-all Greenist troll-a-lot.

  26. “You know fuck all about me. You’re just another know-it-all Greenist troll-a-lot.”

    ***

    I know from your frequent postings on this blog that you are well to the right of Bernie and I, which means you are closer to Trump than we are. I am not saying that you are Trump – you are a moderate/centrist/establishment right winger while he is a far-right nutter – but you are much closer to him than we on the left are.

  27. nath says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 9:59 am
    Briefly is right in one respect. The Greens are an existential threat to the ALP. This will only become more apparent as more seats at state and federal level return Greens members.

    Bob Brown has always been very clear on this. One of the reasons for the formation of the Greens was to defeat and replace Labor. This is not a secret.

    What we can say after 25 years is that the Greens have secured a franchise of around 10% of the PV. This has been at Labor’s expense, such that the plurality that used to exist from early in the 20th century until the rise of Howard no longer operates. The Greens have no hope of forming government anytime in the foreseeable future. And they have crashed Labor’s slim chances. This is the historical reality. It’s always been hard for Labor to win in Australia, federally-speaking. It’s now basically impossible. This is good news in one respect. It means the program of the Greens will never be enacted. I’m with Boer on that.

  28. Victoria is set to record 725 new cases of COVID-19 today, according to a source with knowledge of the health statistics.

    It comes nearly one week after 723 infections were recorded last Thursday, July 30, and 627 cases were reported last Friday, July 31.

  29. Firefox says:
    Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 10:12 am
    “You know fuck all about me. You’re just another know-it-all Greenist troll-a-lot.”

    ***

    I know from your frequent postings on this blog that you are well to the right of Bernie and I, which means you are closer to Trump than we are. I am not saying that you are Trump – you are a moderate/centrist/establishment right winger while he is a far-right nutter – but you are much closer to him than we on the left are.

    You are not of the left, though you comfort yourself by dreaming you might be. You are a splitter. You run interference for the Trumps and the Tories. This is the objective historical result of your activism. You are an unpaid servant of the Right.

  30. My great grandfather was killed in a dock explosion on a ship called the Mahia in Melbourne in 1947. Not the same scale as this obviously, but still killed 10 people – my g grandfather and 9 other workers, who were all *cough* members of the Painters and Dockers. Debris was sprayed through the air well into the CBD. Inquest found that it was an accident, unsafe cargo that was ignited and blew up.

    My great grandmother (though she was estranged from him) insisted to her dying day it wasn’t an accident. My g grandfather was due to stand trial for burglary charges on the following Tuesday, and many claimed that the explosion was intended to kill him and others off before the trial could take place.

  31. Can we just play the ball and not the man/woman?
    It’s important to have a diversity of views but think some people just enjoy putting others in their place.
    Thanks for this blog, WB.

  32. Ammonium Nitrate does not have to be mixed with diesel to go bang. It can explode if ignited by something like, oh I don’t know – a fire in a fireworks storage.

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