It’s as easy as APC

A new polling industry standards council takes shape; and the coronavirus polling glut keeps piling higher.

A promised initiative to restore confidence in opinion polling has came to fruition with the establishment of the Australian Polling Council, a joint endeavour of YouGov, Essential Research and uComms. Following the example of the British Polling Council and the National Council for Published Polls in the United States, the body promises to “ensure standards of disclosure”, “encourage the highest professional standards in public opinion polling” and “inform media and the public about best practice in the conduct and reporting of polls”.

The most important of these points relates to disclosure, particularly of how demographic weightings were used to turn raw figures into a published result. The British Polling Council requires that its members publish “computer tables showing the exact questions asked in the order they were asked, all response codes and the weighted and unweighted bases for all demographics and other data that has been published”. We’ll see if its Australian counterpart to sees things the same way when it releases its requirements for disclosures, which is promised “before July 2020”.

Elsewhere:

• The West Australian has had two further local polls on coronavirus from Painted Dog Research, one from last week and one from this week ($). The McGowan government announced its decision to reopen schools next week in between the two polls, which had the support of 22.7% in the earlier poll and 49% this week, with opposition down from 43.3% to 27%, and the undecided down from 34% to 24%. The earlier poll found remarkably strong results for the McGowan government’s handling of the crisis, with 90.0% agreeing it had been doing a good job (including 54.2% strongly agreeing) and only 2.9% disagreeing (1.2% strongly), with 7.1% neither agreeing or disagreeing. No field work dates provided, but the latest poll has a sample of 831.

• The University of Melbourne’s Melbourne Institute conducted a 1200-sample survey on coronavirus from April 6 to 11, and while the published release isn’t giving too much away, we told that “about 60% of Australians report being moderately to very satisfied with government economic policies to support jobs and keep people at work”, and that “more than 80% expect the impact of the coronavirus pandemic to last for more than 6 months“.

• The Washington Post’s Monkey Cage political science blog examines local government elections held in France on March 15, two days before the country went into lockdown: turnout fell from 63% to 45%, but the result was not radically different from the last such elections in 2016. Traditional conservative and socialist parties holding up well and the greens making gains, Emmanuel Macron’s presidential vehicle La République En Marche failing to achieve much cross-over success, and Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National losing ground compared with a strong result in 2014.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,180 comments on “It’s as easy as APC”

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  2. How will this go down in voterland?

    Liberals, ALP to seek taxpayer-funded wage subsidies for political staff

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/liberals-alp-to-seek-taxpayer-funded-wage-subsidies-for-political-staff-20200425-p54n7k.html

    The two major political parties will seek taxpayer-funded wage subsidies under the federal government’s $130 billion JobKeeper program to avoid staff layoffs as the economic impact of the coronavirus hits their campaign headquarters.

    The Sunday Age and The Sun-Herald can reveal the federal headquarters of the Liberal and Labor parties will register to access the fortnightly payments of $1500 to avoid laying off their staff as funds dry up following the cancellation of party fundraising events.

    The employees, which include administration staff, researchers, party directors and membership co-ordinators, draw their salaries mainly from political donations and fundraising, and are not on state or federal government payrolls.

    Tough social-distancing measures to stop the spread of COVID-19 – including a ban on indoor gatherings — has severely hit the finances of the parties, forcing them to abandon fundraising efforts across the country, including intimate dinners with party leaders which can bring in hundreds of thousands of dollars in a night.

  3. Who could have ever imagined that cricket in Vanuatu would one day get a headline in the New York Times ? 🙂
    ———————————————-
    Vanuatu, with no reported cases, gives sports fans something to watch: cricket.

    Cricket may not be everyone’s cup of tea, but the Vanuatu Cricket Association livestreamed its Women’s Super League final, inviting sports fans everywhere to take a break from the recorded footage that many have had to settle for during the pandemic.

    “We thought it’s our duty to provide the world with some live sport,” said Shane Deitz, the chief executive of the Vanuatu Cricket Association and a former player for the Australian national team.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/25/world/coronavirus-news.html?type=styln-live-updates&label=global&index=1&action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage#link-13dd4928

  4. I nearly choked on a freshly baked banana and walnut muffin (ooh boy, it was good) when I read the following. I’m surprised that The Doanlds hair hasn’t burst into flame with the anger that’s bubbling away in his skull.

    https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/trump-unfollows-piers-morgan-on-twitter-after-batsht-crazy-taunt/news-story/686ff320b7d075e1eaadd85d4d15520d

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/piers-morgan-donald-trump-twitter-unfollowed_n_5ea41acec5b669fd89257eb9?ri18n=true

  5. Mexicanbeemer

    Thanks for the explanation 🙂

    A cousin of mine and her husband emigrated to Australia about six years ago via the ‘points’system, last I heard they were in Melbourne

  6. Socrates

    Morning all. On the Melbourne truck crash tragedy I think it is very inappropriate to ascribe or speculate on cause yet because the investigation is ongoing and there could be criminal charges involved.

    Absolutely agree.

    A core principle of the Australian criminal justice system that a person is presumed to be innocent unless proven guilty of the offence beyond a reasonable doubt is too often jettisoned by the ‘lynch mob’.

    Also, if people do want to ascribe blame, I am reminded of the fatal SE freeway crashes in South Australia a few years ago. In those cases the State correctly prosecuted the transport companies that sent out inexperienced drivers or poorly maintained heavy trucks down a steep slope. They failed their duty of care.
    :::
    So in this case, by all means check the car and truck drivers, who may have behaved badly. But also check the truck company, how many hours the driver was on the road, the regulations, and the system that allowed this to happen.

    Agree. The need to reform the trucking industry has been apparent for a long time.

  7. Pegasus I don’t care if the driver was culpable or not. Its the government encouraging bad safety practices that bothers me.

  8. The G – From May 2

    Queensland will allow some forms of recreation, such as:

    Going for a drive (within 50km of home)
    Picnics (limited to groups of two, or people from the same household)
    Shopping for non-essential items like clothes and shoes
    Some national park areas will be reopened

  10. NZ has 9 new cases today. They have been single figures for a number of days now. Its very difficult to eliminate and they are easing restrictions this week and when their overall situation is very similar to Australia.

  13. Daniel Andrews are you seeing what QLD are doing. Lift some of your idiotic restrictions, 2 – ball golf allowed, fishing and you can take a learner driver 50km from home. But who knows, Victoria has the most left wing government in the country.

  14. FS

    When did Shane Deitz ever play cricket for Australia?

    With the amount of cricket expertise among staff at the NYT his playing for the Redbacks would be near enough for them.

  16. michael @ #1764 Sunday, April 26th, 2020 – 9:35 am

    Daniel Andrews are you seeing what QLD are doing. Lift some of your idiotic restrictions, 2 – ball golf allowed, fishing and you can take a learner drive 50km from home. But who knows, Victoria has the most left wing government in the country.

    Poor little Michael, a round of golf is more important than the well being of the Society.

  17. “Shopping for non-essential items like clothes and shoes will also be permitted.” (Qld from 2 May)

    Now that the weather’s getting colder, being a nudist is probably not quite so appealing.

  18. The Age – Anthony Galloway on the tracing app:

    Labor’s home affairs spokeswoman Kristina Keneally has called for the Morrison government to legislate privacy protections into its new tracing application to fight COVID-19.
    :::
    “First of all, the tracing app could be a great tool. It could be a great tool to protect Australia’s public health,” Senator Keneally told the ABC’s Insiders program.

    “However, Australians will only download the app if they have confidence that their privacy will be protected. And so, we are encouraging the Government to ensure those privacy protections are built into the app.”

  19. Those damn union super funds 🙂 Paywalled.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………….
    Super giant to create 100,000 Aussie jobs

    EXCLUSIVE Superannuation giant CBUS has a plan to help rebuild the economy and get Australians back into work when coronavirus shutdowns end.
    https://www.couriermail.com.au/coronavirus/superannuation-giant-cbus-to-create-100000-australian-jobs/news-story/8fe35114237dc4f57fad658ce6e34fff

  20. Blobbit

    That non peer reviewed report that the government has used as ammunition to support its policy of using children to force a “snap back” says this..

    This reinforces the need for both adults and children to ensure they do not attend school when ill and if they become ill to promptly isolate themselves and seek medical attention. It is also important for all adults, including teachers, to follow recommended social distancing practices while at school and in the community.

    Funny how that bit got quietly ignored…

  21. poroti @ #1769 Sunday, April 26th, 2020 – 11:41 am

    Those damn union super funds 🙂 Paywalled.
    ……………………………………………………………………………………….
    Super giant to create 100,000 Aussie jobs

    EXCLUSIVE Superannuation giant CBUS has a plan to help rebuild the economy and get Australians back into work when coronavirus shutdowns end.
    https://www.couriermail.com.au/coronavirus/superannuation-giant-cbus-to-create-100000-australian-jobs/news-story/8fe35114237dc4f57fad658ce6e34fff

    More coal miners ..?

  22. Barney

    michael is lining himself for the mother of all humiliations when NZ achieves elimination. I’m licking my lips right now…

  23. Good to see that the Victorian govt is ignoring the fiberals.
    As mentioned many a time, the good results so far here in Australia are no thanks to the Fibs. But in spite of them.
    Heck even Niki Savva reminded us of this fact.

  25. Michael
    Daniel Andrews are you seeing what QLD are doing. Lift some of your idiotic restrictions, 2 – ball golf allowed, fishing and you can take a learner driver 50km from home. But who knows, Victoria has the most left wing government in the country.
    —————————
    Okay so are you whinging you can’t play golf or whinging about the restrictions and there are plenty of ways to exercise besides playing golf.

  26. Market Forces campaign – What Future is Your Super Funding?

    https://www.marketforces.org.au/campaigns/super/

    Superannuation allows Australians the opportunity to retire with a greater level of comfort and security. But what if the super that we retire with has been funding the environmental destruction and runaway climate change we need to avoid? What if, by being invested in fossil fuels like coal mining and coal seam gas, our super funds deliver us a polluted world to retire into?

    The reality is many of Australia’s superannuation funds are invested in these dirty industries. Market Forces is campaigning for super funds to divest from coal and gas. We’re also here to help Australians make sure their retirement isn’t funded by environmental destruction.

    Use the table below to see which super funds are invested in companies that are actively undermining the climate goals set out in the Paris Agreement, and take action to tell your fund to lift its game on climate action.

    https://www.marketforces.org.au/superfunds/

  27. Barney I walk round the park these days, its packed. If I played a round of golf, probably wouldn’t see anyone for 18 holes. If you are worried about the well-being of society being affected by golf, we should be locked down in our homes. Parks should be off-limits. Just a ridiculous decision.

  28. Chewer:

    EGT

    The number of contacts captured by an app is the square of the takeup rate of the app. A 40 percent takeup (unlikely to happen) means only 16 percent of contacts are captured. As I said, the app is likely to be of little consequence.

    With 40% take-up for the app, 16% contacts traces is an upper bound (as I’ve been saying from the start):
    – On Android, the app can run in the background, but makes the phone discoverable on BlueTooth, this both drains the battery somewhat and makes it trackable by third parties;
    – On iOS, the rules prevent background apps from making the phone discoverable on BlueTooth, so it must run in the foreground. This has both of the problems of the Android app and in addition can interfere with core phone functionality

    So:
    – with 40% take-up (higher than in Singapore) the % of people actually running the app and enduring the problems will be less than 40%, maybe 20% effective take-up, giving a contact trace rate of 4%
    – the 40% take-up will have been depressed by early adopters trying it and finding it to have been a dud; to fight he virus, the app needs to “go viral” or be mandatory or people are paid to use it. These are the only ways to get to effective take-up of 80% plus, giving contact trace rate of 64% plus, which is good enough to be useful

  29. Ray (UK) @ #1755 Sunday, April 26th, 2020 – 11:23 am

    Mexicanbeemer

    Thanks for the explanation 🙂

    A cousin of mine and her husband emigrated to Australia about six years ago via the ‘points’system, last I heard they were in Melbourne

    I was also thinking about this and just musing that I believe I heard that if and when a UK/Aus FTA is agreed upon, it will allow the free flow of workers who are citizens of both countries to come and go between the two for work purposes.

  30. @JohnQuiggin
    Anyone with access to a search engine can find loads of international studies of Covid infection and transmission in children. But Australian policy is apparently being based on a study of 18 cases, by the experts at, of all places, NSW Health.

    NSW Health? Arent the Feds trying to blame them for the Ruby Princess bedacle?

  31. Guardian’s AR on the tracing app:

    Australia’s coronavirus tracing app set to launch today despite lingering privacy concerns

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/26/australias-coronavirus-tracing-app-set-to-launch-today-despite-lingering-privacy-concerns

    But Dutton’s Labor counterpart, Kristina Keneally, said she would be waiting to see how the government has addressed privacy concerns before deciding whether or not she would download it, while acknowledging the app had the potential to be a “great tool” for public health protection.

    “Like many Australians, I’m waiting to see what the federal government has to say in terms of the privacy protections that are built into the app, and the legislated privacy protections they’re going to put in place,” she told the ABC on Sunday.
    :::
    The government announced on Sunday it would roll out the app for download. Christian Porter confirmed there would be legislation regarding the app included in the coming May sitting of parliament, but in the meantime, the app is operating under the biosecurity act, which has been used for much of Australia’s Covid-19 response.

  32. Cud how are Taiwan’s overseas cases going. Still waiting on the info.
    NZ is struggling to eliminate, and they are now easing restrictions. Sounds like they following Australia now with stage 3 restrictions, the economic cost of stage 4 is too high.

  33. Michael
    We don’t need to go to a complete lock down because the current restrictions are working and if I had to guess why golf is restricted is because everyone that plays golf likes the 19th hole.

  34. michael @ #1777 Sunday, April 26th, 2020 – 11:49 am

    Barney I walk round the park these days, its packed. If I played a round of golf, probably wouldn’t see anyone for 18 holes. If your worried about the well-being of society being affected by golf, we should be locked down in our homes. Parks should be off-limits. Just a ridiculous decision.

    I guess Donald Trump would agree with you, even if no-one else does.

  35. I’m not surprised that an elite recreation like golf has become a rallying point for Liberals in this country. What next? Let the Private Schools get back to Rowing! 😆

  36. michael if you weren’t like a pigeon diving and shitting and sniping at random, you might have noticed I posted the direct link to Taiwans official web site with reports in English. Other than that GFY.

  37. Michael:

    Barney I walk round the park these days, its packed. If I played a round of golf, probably wouldn’t see anyone for 18 holes. If your worried about the well-being of society being affected by golf, we should be locked down in our homes. Parks should be off-limits. Just a ridiculous decision.

    About 15 minutes close contact with a carrier seems to be (for some reason) required for infection (unless there is an aerosolising procedure such as singing) . Walking around the park by oneself (or with a member of same household) one is unlikely to have 15 minutes close contact with a carrier (unless the household member is a carrier, in which case one is likely already infected). Playing a round of golf by oneself would be fine, but typically golfing rounds are social activities involving two or more people in close contact, who are not typically members of the same household.

  40. michael @ #1782 Sunday, April 26th, 2020 – 11:54 am

    NZ is struggling to eliminate, and they are now easing restrictions. Sounds like they following Australia now with stage 3 restrictions, the economic cost of stage 4 is too high.

    In Australia we have the extraordinary luxury of being able to watch what happens when others lift restrictions, at very little cost. Only an idiot would throw that away.

    Our economy is not at stake if we stay in lockdown for another month or two, despite what some people seem to think. The world currently neither wants nor needs our exports, nor are they queuing up to send us their students or tourists. That’s pretty much our entire economy on hold whether we open up or not, so pretending we desperately need to open up at this point to “save the economy” is just plain wrong. At best, it is simply fiddling at the edges.

  41. B

    I walk round the park these days, its packed.

    It’s the same in my neck of the woods. We have walked in our local bush park almost daily for decades, at different times of the day and sometimes at night. Before physical distancing we we would come across a handful or two pf people or none at all.

    Now it’s packed with walkers, runners and cyclists. Physical distancing is nigh impossible in some sections of the track.

    Though the flipside it is great to see family groups with young children exploring the park environment, including the wetlands and creek.

  42. E. G. Theodore
    Not sure if its all golf courses but many require two or four in a paring then there is the 19th hole in the club house with others playing and we know this virus stays on surfaces for a while. Walking in a park does allow for exercise and its possible to avoid direct contact with others by stepping aside or whatever.

  43. EGT

    That 15 minute thing is arbitrary to the point of useless. The danger lies in being in confined spaces and the aerosol being concentrated – it has similar properties to smoke only you can’t see it. I suspect you can get infected in much less than 15 minutes under the right circumstances – like being in a crowded food court or on a train. Whereas outdoors the free movement of air means you’re at a lot lower risk.

  44. Mr Dutton said scenes of hundreds of people congregating in Sydney yesterday “were concerning” and it was a reminder that Australia needed to avoid a second wave of the virus. (SMH updates)

    He didn’t seem concerned about all the people congregating on the Ruby Princess – he let them loose all over Australia.

  45. Golf is low risk. Two ball golf is max, only go to tee when texted, no flags and foam in holes so you only touch your own ball, pro shop and clubhouse closed so no 19th hole. I sure there are other measures as well. If you look at the big picture with construction and other things still going, a total joke.

  46. The 15 minutes is really more to do with being in enclosed spaces. Walking past someone doesn’t take anywhere near that long and it is entirely possible to avoid contact with that person.

  47. Confessions

    Its no wonder you think Bernie Sanders is an extreme communist. You listen to a lot of conservative outlets from the US.

    A reminder. Universal Healthcare is Labor policy and not at all radical. Just as Sanders other policy platforms are not radical.

    Never forget this even as you use the critique of conservatives against Trump.

  48. Michael,

    You’re right. Every disaster movie begins with the Government ignoring golf special pleading and just relying on science and medical advice instead.

  49. https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En <- its a pretty fucking obvious url that takes 5 seconds to google.

    Note the way they encourage the use of masks.
    Note how our sycophantic CMO doesn't.
    And yes michael, do your worst in bullshitting. I want more opportunity to tell you to GFY 🙂

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