I had a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday considering the implications of coronavirus for the electoral process. For what it’s worth, the New York Times today reports that research finds no evidence that elections act as vectors for disease. Apropos next Saturday’s local government elections and state by-elections in Queensland, my article had this to say:
According to Graeme Orr, University of Queensland law professor and a noted authority on electoral law, it is still within the power of Local Government Minister Stirling Hinchliffe to postpone the council elections. The byelections for the state seats of Currumbin and Bundamba could also theoretically be called off if the speaker rescinded the writs. Since a state election will be held in October in any case, it might well be argued that filling the latter vacancies for a few months is not worth the bother. However, the official position is that neither pre-poll nor election day booths will experience activity amounting to a gathering of more than 500 people, as per the latest advice of the chief medical officer — advice that will surely be showing its age well before next Saturday.
In other by-election news, the Liberal National Party has put Labor last on its how-to-vote cards in Currumbin and Bundamba, and thus behind One Nation, a move that has evidently lost its taboo since the issue of One Nation preferences tore the state’s Coalition parties apart around the turn of the century. This could potentially be consequential in Bundamba, where it is conceivable that One Nation could outpoll the LNP and defeat Labor with their preferences.
Elsewhere:
• The Federal Court has dismissed a Section 44 challenge against Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s eligibility to sit in parliament on grounds of dual Hungarian citizenship, to which he was allegedly entitled via his Hungarian-born mother. The petitioner, Michael Staindl, initially pointed to Australian documentation suggesting her family arrived in Australia in 1950 with Hungarian passports, having fled the country the previous year as the post-war communist regime tightened its grip. However, it was established that this arose from loose definitions used at the time by the Australian authorities, and that what the family actually had was “a form of single use emigrant exit passport”. This led Staindl to twice reformulate his argument, eventually settling on the contention that Frydenberg’s mother was left with the “shell” of a citizenship that had been emptied only by the communist regime’s arbitrary and capricious “pseudo-law”, a factor that ceased to apply with its demise in 1989. This did not impress the court, which dismissed the petition and ordered Staindl to pay costs.
• The Age/Herald has polling results from Newgate Research on which aspects of coronavirus are of greatest public concern. The results are reasonably consistent across the board, but top of the list is “the overall economic impact”, with which 41% express themselves extremely concerned, 36% quite concerned, 19% slightly concerned and 4% not at all concerned. “Regular health services not being available” produces similar results of 35%, 32%, 25% and 8%. There are slightly more moderate results for other questions on health impacts and “shortages of food, toilet paper and other essentials”, although in all cases the combination for extremely concerned and quite concerned is well above 50%. The poll is an “online tracking study of more than 1000 Australians, taken between Wednesday and Saturday last week”.
• The West Australian ($) also has a WA-only coronavirus poll, which finds 66% supporting cancellation of large sporting events, 45% for night venues, 35% for cinemas and theatres, 34% for gyms and leisure centres, 29% for schools, 28% for universities, 22% for shopping centres and 16% apiece for restaurants and cafes and public transport. Fifty-one per cent of respondents agreed the government had been fully open and honest about the risks and implications of the virus, with 25% disagreeing. The poll was conducted Friday and Saturday by Painted Dog Research from a sample of 890.
• The count for the Northern Territory’s Johnston by-election was finalised on Friday, with Labor’s Joel Bowden winning at the final count over Steven Klose of the Territory Alliance by 1731 votes (52.6%) to (47.4%), in the absence of any surprises in the full preference count. With no candidate polling more than 29.9% on the primary vote, the latter was always an abstract possibility, but the result after the previous exclusion was not particularly close, with Bowden on 1275 (38.7%), Klose on 1110 (33.7%) and Greens candidate Aiya Goodrich Carttling on 907 (27.6%). It seems unlikely that preferences would have favoured the Greens even if it had been otherwise. My live results facility now records the final numbers – there will be more where this came from on this site with the Queensland elections on Saturday week, certainly with the state by-elections, and perhaps also for the Brisbane City Council elections, depending on how things go.
Note also two new posts below this one, one dealing with a new poll of state voting intention in Tasmania, the other being Adrian Beaumont’s latest contribution on the Democratic primaries in the United States.
I probably should have put TIC at the end of the quarantine post.
Anyway, yes now hotel/conference centre. But still reasonably isolated.
Nationalise it.
poroti @ #3337 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 8:33 pm
Maybe we are no longer in the containment phase? If that is a bust then letting 50 carriers into a country already riddled with the stuff makes little difference. (I’m not saying this is how it was decided.)
Can anyone running the curve shed some light on what difference it makes if the numbers for tonight are ~1100 vs. ~1150
Simplistically, that would feed into the exponential curve. An extra 50 today, 100 in 3 days, an extra 1600 in 15 days…
CC
m=0.099704887
b=-4375.170836
X=date in Excel.
Y=# of cases
Y=10^(mX+b)
Frednk
Exactly! People like Norman Swan are doing an invaluable job getting across the seriousness of the situation to many people.
Cud Chewer
I can’t imagine degraded viral RNA will last very long in a human body, minutes not hours. You’ve got RNA degrading enzymes everywhere, in pretty much every molecular lab that works with RNA you wear gloves to protect the samples from the scientist, not the other way around.
C@tmomma says @ Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 8:07 pm
I’m not Dave, but if it was me I would look at an index fund over a funds manager. Vanguard are one of the most famous.
There’s a lot of volatility at the moment though. It probably wouldn’t hurt to be patient and let the market calm down.
Note, I’m not a financial adviser and this is not a recommendation. I would recommend your son doing his own investigation.
The NSW Liberal Health Minister, responsible for releasing passengers from an infected ship, run by a negligent cruise company, has the unfortunate name of Brad Hazzard.
He had more misfortune this afternoon where he had a coughing fit at the presser announcing the cruise fiasco
LR
We are already past the containment phase and into the delay phase.
Australian tourism operators silenced for opposing Adani mine:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tB10t2QS8jU
Diogenes:
It was indeed
Also anything to do with ships involves the Commonwealth (tried to arrest a ship?)
There is a clear weakness in that the Commonwealth’s role in pandemics is not properly defined.
I presume NSW asked the Commonwealth for advice, and the Commonwealth (knowing NSW was responsible) gave poorly thought through advice.
Once there is a hint of a pandemic (and in Australia this was accepted late January, notwithstanding WHO’s toleration of the fools in the Trump administration) then the Commonwealth should arrest all cruise ships is Aus waters for the duration (use the RAN if necessary) and quarantine the occupants on land. Mr Morrison would be being hailed as a genius if he’d done that.
Oh who needs opera…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJjhVkxnHIE&has_verified=1
“this video may be inappropriate for some viewers”
B
14 March 2020
Worshippers gather for Sydney Hillsong conference after Scott Morrison introduced ban on mass events
https://internewscast.com/worshippers-gather-for-sydney-hillsong-conference-after-scott-morrison-introduced-ban-on-mass-events/
“Large groups of people attend Hillsong Church Colour Conference in Sydney’s north-west on Saturday
:::
The worshipers flocked to the Hillsong Convention Centre in Baulkham Hills, Sydney’s north-west, on Saturday”
Today’s figures are a bit off anyway because we don’t have the second tranche of the New South Wales figures which we normally get.
In an event, the projections assume no effect from the diminution of people in the city and those people who do take the government warnings seriously
Diogenes @ #3358 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 8:49 pm
Thanks. That makes the ramped up emphasis on social distancing and crowd thinning much more understandable. I had wondered.
The SmearStralian article is gobsmacking…
Sydney port officials told there was no one sick on Ruby Princess cruise ship despite 158 passengers reporting ill
Sick passengers allowed to disembark and potentially spread infection throughout state capital
At least four passengers tested positive after ship docked in Sydney Harbour
2700 new passengers boarded ship following outbreak onboard cruise liner amid accusations of negligence
Two more COVID-19 cases in the NT traced to Ruby Princess
A cruise ship that docked in Sydney with four confirmed cases of COVID-19 on Thursday had previously been sailing with 158 sick passengers on board — including 13 with high temperatures — who disembarked at Circular Quay before the vessel left for New Zealand with nearly 4,000 on board.
The Ruby Princess returned to Sydney 11 days later — on Thursday, March 19 — with four confirmed cases of coronavirus; health officials are now urgently trying to track down passengers who were allowed to disperse into the community.
Two more confirmed cases in the Northern Territory have been traced to passengers from the Ruby Princess.
The infections were found in a couple who disembarked from the Ruby Princess cruise ship and then flew to the Top End capital, before testing positive for COVID-19 on Saturday.
Questions are now being raised over why the Ruby Princess was permitted to leave Sydney for New Zealand without undergoing quarantining or disinfection — it was carrying 2,700 new passengers and 1,100 crew members when it set sail, just hours after 158 sick people disembarked the ship.
Further concerns are being raised over the conduct of the Ruby Princess’s master. An email sent by the Port Authority of NSW, and obtained by The Weekend Australian, revealed that when the Ruby Princess arrived in Sydney on March 8 its captain told NSW Vessel Traffic Services there were “no ill passengers or crew on board”.
This is despite the ship logging its 158 unwell passengers through the Federal Government’s biosecurity management portal, known as MARS, or the Maritime Arrivals Reporting Systems. Breaching the MARS is an offence under the Biosecurity Act, according to its website.
https://t.co/7qtAkZEtuB?amp=1
Cud Chewer:
[‘“this video may be inappropriate for some viewers”]
Agree!
LR
That gives a doubling period of 3.02 days
I was working on a doubling period of 3.5 days.
Yikes.
Diogenes:
Hillsingers from the US will almost certainly be teetotal. That makes it quite unlikely they’ll be going on a Barossa Wine Tour (unless it’s an exercise in resisting temptation, which I suppose is possible, though in that case they need to read the Bible regarding deliberately placing oneself in temptation).
[Once there is a hint of a pandemic (and in Australia this was accepted late January, notwithstanding WHO’s toleration of the fools in the Trump administration) then the Commonwealth should arrest all cruise ships is Aus waters for the duration (use the RAN if necessary) and quarantine the occupants on land. Mr Morrison would be being hailed as a genius if he’d done that.]
Exercising the power conferred on the Commonwealth by Poll Bludger retrospectively.
LR
To be strictly accurate, NSW is in the delay phase and SA is in the containment phase (we haven’t had community transmission yet).
Four confirmed Covid 19 cases at a Ryde Church
https://www.ryde.nsw.gov.au/Council/Media-Centre/News-and-Public-Notices/Public-health-advice-regarding-event-at-Ryde-Civic-Hall?fbclid=IwAR3sZW6faR1jHXkmgcET4bXFHpu48n13GsxPbECHKlHdfWNZbsJwccQz2Hk
Just a reminder.
The projections merely look at the current curve and create a measure against which to compare the next 24 hours. You can think of the curve as a speedo in a car. You don’t have to drive for an hour to know you’re travelling at 60km/hour. But if you do drive for an hour and discover you’ve driven 65km then you’ve sped up, overall. If it is 55km, well you slowed down along the way. But you only find out after an hour. (Sorry in advance. Don’t mean to be patronising.)
Cud Chewer @ #3367 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 8:56 pm
Yikes indeed. (The regression is over that past 224 hours.)
“Air raid sirens echoed across Amman early on Saturday to mark the start of a nationwide curfew affecting 10 million Jordanian citizens to combat the spread of coronavirus.
In one of the strictest measures yet, Jordan has ordered all shops to close and everyone to stay off the streets until at least Tuesday, when it plans to announce specific times for shopping. The army said anyone violating the curfew, which restricts movement beyond emergencies and essential services, could be jailed for up to a year.”
Some more from the Smear..
“NSW Labor Deputy Leader Yasmin Catley said the NSW Port Authority should have unequivocally prevented the Ruby Princess from disembarking on March 8 when it knew sick passengers had been on board the ship.
“They have been negligent in their actions,” Ms Catley said. “This is a massive failure of the regulator, a direct example of governments working in silos, and not sharing critical information for the safety and protection for the citizens of this state.”
The Australian has been told that when the ship arrived back in Sydney on Thursday with its confirmed cases of COVID-19, it was processed at the Overseas Passenger Terminal at 2:29am rather than the usual time of sunrise, which is when ships normally arrive in the harbour.
Ms Catley said this raised questions around the intention of NSW Health authorities and others involved in the processing of passengers, and whether this was done deliberately under the cover of darkness.
NSW Health on Friday stated that the confirmed cases of coronavirus were only discovered later that morning, after the passengers had disembarked from the ship.
“It would appear that there is a shroud of secrecy over this vessel docking because we know there were ambulances waiting to transport unwell passengers directly to hospital,” she said.
“It beggars belief why that vessel was allowed to sail on the 8th, but it’s even further and greater concern that those passengers who returned on Thursday the 19th in the cloak of darkness, at 2:29am, were then allowed to disembark that vessel, because the government considered it a low risk.”
EGT
Are you sure about that ? Scrott appears to like a beer and this US survey shows Evangelicals are hardly teetotal.
.
Americans’ drinking habits vary by faith
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/03/06/americans-drinking-habits-vary-by-faith/
I’m off to enjoy some iView. Bye for now.
Ballantyne
“ It holds up to 21,000 people.”
That’s a lot of contact tracing!
What would you have them do?
Order the cruise cancelled before the passengers get anywhere near it. COVID-19 was in Australia before that ship set sail for New Zealand.
This article still has the best explanation of why the real pool of infections is much larger than the official stats.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
And it strikes me that neither the Prime Minister, nor the CMO, nor a lot of the senior state health officials seem to be able to grasp the truth of what is written here.
Some of them are still claiming that its all mostly the bug getting in across the border and that its not true community transmission.
No. You idiots. Its gone into community transmission over 2 weeks ago.
E. G. Theodore:
Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 9:57 pm
You’re presupposing that the botherers will keep to script. I very much doubt it. I was there in ’57:
https://time.com/5168188/billy-graham-evangelism-crusades/
My dear mother and sister (both dead) went down to be cleansed. I demurred.
Cud Chewer @ #3361 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 6:51 pm
Thanks Cud. Good to have some real music posted on here rather than the flood of opera shit it normally gets.
One needs a sense of balance 🙂
Further concerns are being raised over the conduct of the Ruby Princess’s master. An email sent by the Port Authority of NSW, and obtained by The Weekend Australian, revealed that when the Ruby Princess arrived in Sydney on March 8 its captain told NSW Vessel Traffic Services there were “no ill passengers or crew on board”.
This is despite the ship logging its 158 unwell passengers through the Federal Government’s biosecurity management portal, known as MARS, or the Maritime Arrivals Reporting Systems. Breaching the MARS is an offence under the Biosecurity Act, according to its website.
Someone is for a long walk off a short plank!
And it doesn’t sound as if, ‘Super Woman Manager Politician of the Year’, Gladys Berejiklian has been open and transparent with the citizens of the state she is Premier of.
Did someone say real music:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=utyXQqZ35do
One doesn’t need one’s senses offended with Joan Sutherland!
I feel like putting up, ‘God Save the Queen!’ by The Sex Pistols to counter-balance that Arch Monarchist’s caterwauling!
Shellbell
Does this mean that matters related to “plague ships” are not in the Admiralty Jurisdiction of the Federal Court (which I presume based on what you say has actually been referred by the States?)
If so that’s a mess, but might explain the non-involvement of the Commonwealth (it’s completely ridiculous if each State has to make its own assessment of a seaborne threat – how could they possibly do that?)
In any event, the times demand the making of law, not its discernment via nice arguments. Or use another power.
The underlying science is that Cruise Ships are Weapons of Mass Destruction in pandemics; this has been known for about 100 years, and (national) governments need to act accordingly.
Better than NSW, but still.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-21/coronavirus-covid-19-infections-spike-by-26-in-wa/12077652
Danama Papers:
[‘Thanks Cud. Good to have some real music posted on here rather than the flood of opera shit it normally gets.’]
It’s not your fault that you have a lack of breeding. I blame your parents.
I’m with you C@t!!
This is pretty special. Guns N Roses ‘Civil War’ with an intro and outro of Hendrix’s Voodoo Chile by Slash.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ApU4EPfE4f4
nath:
[‘Did someone say real music:’]
No, dear, someone didn’t – loud, uncouth, immiscible, not easy to the ear. You’ll go mental, however with this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJMy_rv-Ix8
E. G. Theodore says:
Saturday, March 21, 2020 at 9:57 pm
Diogenes:
I haven’t heard the Hillsong rumour (except here) but I will say no one comes from the US just to visit the Barossa Valley. They must have been elsewhere in Australia.
It originated in Australia, they are not Methodists.
Someone said the other day that the US is about to be mugged by reality.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
Even with “severe control measures” the outbreak is still pretty widespread. The “some control measures” is a wakeup call. As for “no control measures”, total lost case.
Regarding the Ruby Princess, all passenger boarding and alighting in Australia at ports and airports is a Federal responsibility administered by BorderFarce. In fact if you do arrive by boat technically you are still supposed to fill out one of those passenger arrival cards. The Ruby Princess is clearly Dutton’s responsibility. NSW State transport may control the port and letting the ship dock, but whether o not the passengers get off is clearly up to Federal law. Its the same for getting cargo off ships and through customs too.
https://www.abf.gov.au/entering-and-leaving-australia/crossing-the-border/at-the-border/incoming-passenger-card-(ipc)
Basically it is the Reichspotato’s responsibility. I expect he will remain in quarantine until the last journalist gives up asking questions.
That’s all very nice Mavis. But it doesn’t get my blood rushing to the parts where I need it rushing to.
Although I will admit that this classical piece did the job back in the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JNlOTccdck
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/20/trump-coronavirus-question-attack-reporter-over-fears
Confessions
I hope that the so-called authorities in Australia are learning from the US experience and realising that their official statistics are probably only a fraction of what’s actually happening.
That’s not music. This is music.
https://youtu.be/v2zdQIvYQPQ
Pegasus @ #2830 Saturday, March 21st, 2020 – 2:08 pm
Yes, as I pointed out earlier somewhere, this is inevitable. As well as the increased time together, the more the outside seems out of control the more the abuser will bash their partner.
An example of this feeling of loss of control being placated through violence, is that when the woman gets pregnant her male partner increases the violence towards her.
And we will not have any government response to this looming problem. We need womens’ refuges and places where these woman can isolate safely if they need to. But mostly we need men to stop bashing women when they feel any hint of powerlessness.